Should Rodon be shut down for an extended period to preserve him for the postseason?

[flavum]

Stick with the rotation as long as there isn’t an obvious reason to give a guy a break. Chances are they’ll clinch with 10-14 days left in the season, and they’ll be able to do anything they want to set up the staff they want going into October baseball.

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Congrats, you just got reported for baiting. 

Surely they have more important things to do with their lives.

Nobody wants to have written on their tombstone, “spent countless hours dealing with Ron883’s voluminous reports of supposed SoxTalk infractions.”

Plus, it has a The Boy Who Cried Wolf vibe to it.  You should be able to identify a REAL personal attack by now. It goes with the territory of starting threads.

Edited July 9, 2021 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Babying pitchers causes more injuries, imo. Period, end of story.

[he gone.]

24 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

WTF with this thread?

They don't hand out Division Titles at the Allstar break.    

Gotta keep playing the games and try to win as many of them. 

Yes, come September and assuming you have a comfortable lead, you throw in another starter in there to  push everyone out to 5-6 days rest or even skip a start for each guy. 

they definitely do not. that said, look at the rest of the division. 

 

tigers - not happening. their young pitchers are already being tapered down. they're playing much better baseball, but they're not jumping us in the standings with that team.

twins - this is the team with the most talent in the division outside of us. that said they are out 15 games. they're more likely to sell guys like Cruz than tack on pitching. it's just not going to happen mathematically. we could play 30-46 ball here out and finish 81-81 and the twins would have to finish out 45-31 to match. it's just not happening.

Royals - they're in the same boat. team actually is somewhat talented but their young arms haven't really taken that step forward this year. they're the same record as the twins and have less talent than the twins. they're toast.

 

so that leaves the indians - that team is predicated on their rotation, and although they just got back pleasac, the rest of the rotation is banged up. without bieber taking hte ball every 5th game, without civale, etc. they're maybe the worst team in the division. that offense is puke worthy for stretches and they're too cheap to add at the deadline. their rotation has pitched to like an 8ERA over the last month without their guys. that team, if healthy, has the best chance. But give them just 2 or 3 more weeks without their top arms and they're definite sellers at the deadline and may be 10 games out. If by the deadline they're 10 games out? then it's another math equation. If we play .500 ball here out we finish with 89 wins. They have to go 47-30 here out in that scenario. Without Bieber and Civale for another 16? games ... call it 7-9 record ... that means they'd have to finish 40-21! And that's us playing .500 ball. If we even play a few games above .500 and you see where this goes .... they'd need to like 43-18. NO matter how good bieber and civale are, that offense isn't a 43-18 club. they're as good as TOAST unless they go on a nice run very soon. 

 

Kind of the reason I'm all in on rest. Keep the pedal down through the deadline, but as long as we play strong ball for another few weeks & if the indians dont? Then its ovah. then it's shuffling the deck to make sure you have everybody in tip top shape. Give the August dog days off, and get them back into a rhythm as it hits mid september. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

So, looking at the schedule, the SOX have played 86 games so far, leaving 76 left to play. Of those 76, you've got:

MIN 7/19-21, and away 8/9-11

KC away 7/26-29, home 8/3-5, & away 9/3-5

Scrubs away 8/6-8, & home 8/27-29

Shittsburgh 8/31-9/1

Texas away 9/17-19 

I'm counting 27 games vs what looks like 2nd Division competition.

Add in 7 vs Cleveland, 6 vs Detroit, and 2 vs Cincy, and thats another 15 games vs less-talented/"middleweight" teams. And who knows which teams may collapse after doing some selling, or if injuries creep into other rosters, or underperformance occurs for some of the opposition? There could be other chances to skip starts here and there.

 

I think by picking & choosing favorable opponents to skip starts, the SOX can keep Rodon's/Lynn's/Cease's IP total to around ~160ish by the end of the regular season, if they wanted to do so. 

 

Whether that's enough to balance regular season performance and postseason readiness is another question. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete
Forgot to include tex among the shitty teamsin the schedule

[Dominikk85]

I think the Sox should give him some rest but I would do it in late July when eloy is back because the Sox could still go on a pretty big losing stretch with the decimated roster.

But when they are still 3+ up in late July they can afford a bad 2 week stretch and drop some games in the lead because the roster with eloy, grandal and Robert should easily be good enough to keep the indians at distance. 

 

HFA would be nice but the Sox really need giolito, Lynn and rodon at full strength in the playoffs. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Cali - You know I’m a big fan of yours, but this is a completely ridiculously summation of how most people feel.  Most of us want to take a balanced approach that optimizes a 2021 to 2024 window.  Meanwhile, you seem to want to go “all in” on 2021 no matter the near-term consequences it may have.

It's what I have gleaned from my individual conversations. I've had some people tell me to ride Rodon hard. Look at the poll results. 80% don't want to shut him down for a period. I know everyone has their own ideas on how it should be handled . A balanced approach usually means that perhaps your best starting pitching of the entire "window" is not going to be good enough to win this year without making moves to shore up the bullpen and tremendous lack of LH power or any power for that matter.

If you truly believe Eloy, Grandal and Robert can provide enough power when returning from injury and Rodon can make it to the playoffs but aren't willing to supplement it adequately every year beyond this one it will be pretty much the same thing.

Next year will be without our 2 best starting pitchers  again unless you believe in miracle re-signings. So next year if the hitting stays healthy then the off season and deadline is looking for starting pitching but it's very doubtful they find the quality the Sox got from Lynn and Rodon.

Also why make a trade for Lynn for just one year if the Sox weren't serious about winning it all this year ?  If they keep trading prospects for rentals in order to get by year to year you might as well do it now at the deadline . At some point they will have to decide to be all in or else you are going to be looking at multiple years of frustration rather than multiple championships or multiple years of making the playoffs.

I think it's ridiculous for you to swallow the manure that the front office is shoveling down your throat.

Edited July 9, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Chick Mercedes said:

I tun marathons all the time. Chicago matathon upcoming. Anyway,  Kind of not the same thing

How about an ultra then. Do you consistently run those?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Cali - You know I’m a big fan of yours, but this is a completely ridiculously summation of how most people feel.  Most of us want to take a balanced approach that optimizes a 2021 to 2024 window.  Meanwhile, you seem to want to go “all in” on 2021 no matter the near-term consequences it may have.

I will add that 21-24 could be another topic of discussion because many seem to think it will last longer. So if you think it will only be till 2024 who is there on the farm currently that you think can offer major contributions to the team in that time period ? And by major I mean a starter in the rotation , a key piece of the bullpen or a starter as a position player or even a quality backup who gets 250 PA's.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Babying pitchers causes more injuries, imo. Period, end of story.

Depends on how you qualify babying. Taking a guy whose pitched 42 innings in the last 2 years and expecting quality innings at 4 times that amount in this year alone isn't babying. That's just being smart.

[thedoctor]

shut down, no. but i think he should be pushed back, skipped and perhaps miss some starts if possible. some combination of kopech, charlotte guys and maybe even a back-end starting pitcher acquisition could probably accomplish that. 

[BrittBurnsFan]

4 minutes ago, thedoctor said:

shut down, no. but i think he should be pushed back, skipped and perhaps miss some starts if possible. some combination of kopech, charlotte guys and maybe even a back-end starting pitcher acquisition could probably accomplish that. 

This!  I think it just might be time to start working Kopech into the rotation!  I know the fears...but at some point Kopech needs be in the rotation!

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, thedoctor said:

shut down, no. but i think he should be pushed back, skipped and perhaps miss some starts if possible. some combination of kopech, charlotte guys and maybe even a back-end starting pitcher acquisition could probably accomplish that. 

I am thinking something that looks like how we did with Sale and Quintana in their first full seasons as starters with us.

[flavum]

I got skipping Cease twice in weeks they have Monday and Thursday off, two games that go to whoever for doubleheaders, and then not skipping the other four the rest of the way.

Total starts- Giolito 33, Keuchel 32, Cease 31, Lynn 30, Rodon 29

[southsider2k5]

The one thing I will say that I have noticed, is that Rodon does seem to be approaching games like he is going to give exactly the effort he needs to get by.  His velocity is lowest early on in the game, and then when he knows he is almost done, he breaks out the 99-100 mph stuff.  I can't figure out if he is trying to pace himself in game to get by this season, or if he just takes that long to get loose.

[harkness99]

once we have locked up playoff seeding maybe

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, harkness99 said:

once we have locked up playoff seeding maybe

5 likely playoff teams have between 50 and 54 wins. I'd say it's likely your playoff seeding isn't locked up until Thursday or Friday of the final week of games, if not later.

[harkness99]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

5 likely playoff teams have between 50 and 54 wins. I'd say it's likely your playoff seeding isn't locked up until Thursday or Friday of the final week of games, if not later.

yep

 

[Vulture]

They’ve already been giving him extra rest. He’s only pitched on four days rest three times. Averaged almost six days of rest through first ten starts. I’d imagine they do the similar the rest of the way and he ends up at about 158 innings

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, Vulture said:

They’ve already been giving him extra rest. He’s only pitched on four days rest three times. Averaged almost six days of rest through first ten starts. I’d imagine they do the similar the rest of the way and he ends up at about 158 innings

That would still be a lot if they want him to be effective in the post season, but it would be better than trying to push for a regular rotation and end up near 180.

[CeaseAndExist]

It's mindblowing people could even think this an option.  Shutting a pitcher down then starting him back up is a great way to get a pitcher hurt. No team does that, some of our fans think this is basketball or football I guess.

Limit his innings in his starts, sure. Give him an extra day or two of rest, sure. But if you shut him down then he's done until 2022.

Besides, Rodon is a Cy Young favorite. With how much that'd be worth to him in terms of his next contract zero chance he would even entertain that option.

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, CeaseAndExist said:

It's mindblowing people could even think this an option.  Shutting a pitcher down then starting him back up is a great way to get a pitcher hurt. No team does that, some of our fans think this is basketball or football I guess.

Limit his innings in his starts, sure. Give him an extra day or two of rest, sure. But if you shut him down then he's done until 2022.

Besides, Rodon is a Cy Young favorite. With how much that'd be worth to him in terms of his next contract zero chance he would even entertain that option.

I agree with not totally shutting him down but they need to really limit his innings. His next contract won't be worth much with more injuries or poor performance due to poor performance from fatigue. 

[mmmmmbeeer]

15 hours ago, ptatc said:

I agree with not totally shutting him down but they need to really limit his innings. His next contract won't be worth much with more injuries or poor performance due to poor performance from fatigue. 

Is there a long string of evidence pointing to fatigue and increased injury frequency due to overuse and, if so, at what percentage of increase does the evidence become overwhelming?  

I know that historically pitchers who endure long playoff runs often struggle the next season.  I can't remember many examples of pitchers just falling apart/getting injured in the playoffs because of overuse.

 

[CentralChamps21]

4 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

Is there a long string of evidence pointing to fatigue and increased injury frequency due to overuse and, if so, at what percentage of increase does the evidence become overwhelming?  

I know that historically pitchers who endure long playoff runs often struggle the next season.  I can't remember many examples of pitchers just falling apart/getting injured in the playoffs because of overuse.

 

Stephen Strasburg was worthless in the 2012 postseason for Washington. It's almost like he wasn't even there.

[mmmmmbeeer]

4 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Stephen Strasburg was worthless in the 2012 postseason for Washington. It's almost like he wasn't even there.

Was that the year he got hurt or was that when they sat him for the playoffs to keep him from getting hurt?