Vaughn v. Sheets v. Burger v. Mercedes

[vilehoopster]

I just realized Vaughn is up to 10 home runs already. There is a very real chance he’ll reach 25 home runs this year, his first year with only 55 games, 205 at bats in the minors. Just phenomenal.

[beautox]

In order of availability; its gotta be Yermin, Sheets & Burger. Vaughn is a fixture for this franchise. 

[WBWSF]

On 7/10/2021 at 11:48 AM, VAfan said:

With the trade deadline coming up and the Sox in need  of an upgrade at 2nd base at least, the question arises as to who the Sox might be able to offer in trade.  I don't want them giving up any high-upside minor leaguers because we don't have that many left in the system.  Most of them have already graduated to the major league club or are here to fill in for injured players. 

That led me to write this little piece about 4 guys who have similar abilities.  All of them are hit-first players with limited defensive options.  All of them are rookies, which means it's an unknown which of them will be the best player in long run.  I think at this point, most of us would conclude Mercedes would come up last on this list, but I added him in anyway.

1. Andrew Vaughn.  6' 215 lbs, 23 yrs, 98 days.  3rd pick of first round of 2019 draft.

vs RHP	69		176	159	18	35	8	0	3	12	1	0	9	46	.220	.267	.327	.594	52	3	3	0	5	0	6	.278	61	67
vs LHP	42		87	74	18	23	10	0	5	10	0	0	12	21	.311	.414	.649	1.062	48	2	1	0	0	0	1	.375	182	189

Rakes against lefties.  Still finding his way against right handed pitchers.  

Was brought up to be a DH/1B, but he was thrown into left field when Eloy got hurt and Yermin was hitting, and has done quite well.  Likely to be able to remain an outfielder for foreseeable future, with Eloy coming back to DH and Abreu entrenched at 1B.  Has played some 3B in spring training, but is not likely to be more than an emergency option there.  Has a strong enough arm to play RF. 

2. Gavin Sheets.  6'5", 230 lbs. 25 yrs, 78 days.  2nd round of 2017 draft.

vs RHP	10		33	26	5	9	3	0	3	9	0	0	6	3	.346	.455	.808	1.262	21	1	0	0	1	0	0	.286	148	247
vs LHP	5		7	7		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	-100	-100

Rakes against righties, in limited action.  Complete zero against lefties in 7 career ABs.  

Sox let him compete against Vaughn in Spring Training for the DH slot, but I'm not sure it was ever a fair deal.  They brought him up as other guys got hurt and Mercedes went down to AAA, and he's done very well to start.  He's even tried playing RF to find a position other than DH/1B.  Probably not as good as Vaughn has been in the outfield, but he also hasn't had much of a chance to show improvement there.  Could he have a role as a platoon partner with Vaughn?  

3. Jake Burger. 6'2", 230 lbs.  25 yrs, 91 days.  11th pick of 1st round of 2017 draft

vs RHP	5		12	12	2	6	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	3	.500	.500	.833	1.333	10	2	0	0	0	0	1	.667	186	268
vs LHP	5		7	6		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	.000	.143	.000	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	-61	-55

In the minors, he was crushing lefties, but he hasn't done so here in only 7 ABs.  Way too early to draw any conclusions about his ML bat.  Plays 3B, and has made some good plays over there.  Was tried at 2B in the minors after Madrigal got hurt, but so far TLR hasn't used him there.  Could also be another 1B/DH option, and might even be able to learn the outfield.  As a 3B, his arm strength must be good enough to play either corner outfield spot.  

4. Yermin Mercedes.  5'11", 245 lbs.  28 yrs, 146 days.  Minor league Rule 5 draft pickup. 

vs RHP	64		192	175	17	43	5	0	5	26	0	1	15	40	.246	.307	.360	.667	63	7	1	0	1	0	3	.290	83	88
vs LHP	34		70	65	9	22	4	1	2	11	0	0	5	6	.338	.386	.523	.909	34	0	0	0	0	1	2	.351	147	149

Obviously hits lefties much better than righties.  But that's not the whole story. Need to also provide his early and later splits.

April/March	22	21	88	82	10	34	5	0	5	16	0	1	6	12	.415	.455	.659	1.113	54	1	0	0	0	1	1	.446	202	217
May	28	25	106	95	9	21	2	1	2	14	0	0	9	20	.221	.292	.326	.619	31	4	1	0	1	0	1	.257	70	75
June	18	16	68	63	7	10	2	0	0	7	0	0	5	14	.159	.221	.190	.411	12	2	0	0	0	0	3	.204	14

Through April, he was raking.  In May, over 28 games, he was hurting the team.  And in June, he was worse than useless.  TLR gave him a long rope, but Yermin unfortunately hung himself with it.  

WHICH OF THESE GUYS WOULD YOU KEEP?  WHO WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO TRADE? AND WHY? 

These are the questions I would ask myself if I were Rick Hahn.  Let's take them one at a time.

1.  Yermin.  I would be willing to trade Yermin in a heartbeat, but I don't think he has much if any trade value at this point.  He would first have to reestablish his ability to hit at the major league level, and there is no reason for the Sox to bring him back up if they aren't going to use him as a backup catcher.  Everyone would take Vaughn, Sheets, and Burger ahead of him at DH at this point, and in 3 weeks, Eloy will be back.  So Yermin may have already had his cup of coffee so to speak.  You could bring him back when rosters are expanded to 28 in September as a pinch hitter against lefties.  But I don't expect him to ever get the extended chance to prove himself at the major league level for the Sox.  It's too bad.  The Yerminator helped save the team offense in April. 

2. Vaughn.  As the 3rd pick in the 2019 draft, and the youngest of these guys by 2 full years, Vaughn is going to get every chance to try to become a star for the White Sox.  There was so many in the offseason suggesting he get traded for a starting pitcher or any number of guys, and if you read stuff today, some writers have him going to Pittsburgh as part of an Adam Frazier deal.  He's not going anywhere.  Being able to play the outfield has made him much more useful because no one wants to see Eloy risk further injury in LF once he returns. 

But Vaughn is not a complete player yet.  His splits against right handers so far are BAD, even though he's had twice as many ABs against them as against lefties.  So it's not yet a matter of not having enough opportunities to get better.  Everyone expects improvement there, but it may take some time. 

3. Sheets.  Sheets seems the next most valuable guy behind Vaughn at this point, mostly because a left hander with power and the Sox are badly in need of that.  Grandal has 10 of his 14 HRs batting lefty, but his OPS+ is much higher as a right hander (194) than as a lefty (111).   Yoan Moncada hits better as a lefty (131 OPS+) than as a righty (104 OPS+), but only has 5 HRs as a lefty in 239 plate appearances.  Sheets has 3 HR in 33 PAs against righties.  

The issue for Sheets is where will he play?  Until Eloy returns, he's a logical platoon guy at DH.  But does he play LF well enough to platoon with Vaughn once Eloy is back and hogging all the DH ABs?   This may not be a perfect role for Sheets, but at least it's a role. And the hitting side of it against right handers looks strong enough to be worth keeping. 

4. Burger.  We haven't really seen enough of Burger to have a sense of his potential.  But he's had an amazing year considering how long his multiple injuries kept him away from baseball. He didn't get to play in the alternate site last year, having to make due with much lower competition.  He's also playing a position with an entrenched but young vet in Yoan Moncada who plays gold glove defense at 3B and is a switch hitter offering very little in the way of playing opportunities.  

So you would have to think Burger is the mostly likely guy to trade of this group.  

Even so, I would have to wonder if he didn't get hurt if the Sox might never have drafted Andrew Vaughn.  Burger was drafted as hit-first player in the first round, only 8 slots behind Vaughn.  Here is his Charlotte line.

2021	25	-1.8	Charlotte	AAAE	AAA	CHW	42	185	171	29	55	15	1	10	36	0	0	12	45	.322	.368	.596	.964	102	4	1	0	1	1

10 HRs and a .964 OPS coming off years of inactivity look very good. They were also better than Gavin Sheets' numbers in Charlotte.

2021	25	-1.8	Charlotte	AAAE	AAA	CHW	41	176	161	23	47	8	0	7	33	1	0	15	35	.292	.352	.472	.824	76	1	0	0	0	0

Doesn't Burger look like the better hitter?  He's also looks a bit more well-rounded in his splits.  

CONCLUSION

We really don't know enough at this point about the major league trajectories of these players.  We can write off Yermin because he has no positional value and he's not supplanting Eloy at DH.  But what about the other 3? 

Logic says trade Burger because he's been injured a lot, has no obvious position to play, and probably has more trade value than anyone but Vaughn.  I just wonder if he might become the best hitter of all of them.  You have to like Vaughn because of his youth, but it's no guarantee he will be better in the long run. 

So, I would probably trade Burger, but not for a 2021 rental.  He has too much upside to his game.  With Yoan in year-2 of his power decline, when will we see 25-HR Moncada again? Is he still feeling the effects of Covid?  Burger likely has more power right now than Yoan. 

I would keep Sheets for now as a platoon partner for Vaughn.  But he wouldn't be untouchable.  For the right offer, I would trade him. 

Overall, it's an interesting group of young players.  

There have been comments by White Sox fans on this site and elsewhere that they should trade Moncada and keep Burger. I'm beginning to wonder if there is much of a market for Moncada. This is the second year where he doesn't have any power. No power for a 3rd baseman and a big expensive contract doesn't  exactly make him wanted by other teams.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Let’s see how he does during the tough stretch coming up with much better RHP on .500+ teams. Hopefully the recent success is sustainable.

Him doing well against crap RHP is what I would expect in a normal development. 1st step coming up from only A+ and a year at Schaumburg is struggle against pretty much any RHP. Step 2 : Start hitting the bad RHP with authority and cutting down the K's. Step 3: Develop into the Vaughn everyone hoped he could be .

I think the Sox have handled him well this year.

[michelangelosmonkey]

35 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

There have been comments by White Sox fans on this site and elsewhere that they should trade Moncada and keep Burger. I'm beginning to wonder if there is much of a market for Moncada. This is the second year where he doesn't have any power. No power for a 3rd baseman and a big expensive contract doesn't  exactly make him wanted by other teams.

Moncada is getting on base 40% of the time, is a plus defensive fielder and is making as much in salary in 21+22+23 as Machado is making this year.  He's put up a .550 Slugging percent just two years ago...and he's only 26.  Jake Burger is 25.  Do you really want to trade Moncada??  Do you really think other teams wouldn't be interested in him?   

[WBWSF]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Moncada is getting on base 40% of the time, is a plus defensive fielder and is making as much in salary in 21+22+23 as Machado is making this year.  He's put up a .550 Slugging percent just two years ago...and he's only 26.  Jake Burger is 25.  Do you really want to trade Moncada??  Do you really think other teams wouldn't be interested in him?   

No I don't want to trade him. I just wish he would start hitting some home runs. And no I don't think there are alot of teams who would want him under the present circumstances. (No power and big contract)

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

As Frank Thomas said "FLAVOR OF THE MONTH".  Yermin was the flavor of the month.  

Vaughn --- Hahn should hang up on any GM who asks for him.  Future of the franchise. 

[ChiSox59]

28 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

No I don't want to trade him. I just wish he would start hitting some home runs. And no I don't think there are alot of teams who would want him under the present circumstances. (No power and big contract)

Lol every single team in this league would take Moncada without 2nd thought on his current deal. Every single one. 

[CeaseAndExist]

1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

No I don't want to trade him. I just wish he would start hitting some home runs. And no I don't think there are alot of teams who would want him under the present circumstances. (No power and big contract)

It's bizarre what people will complain about.

Moncada is 6th in MLB in WAR for 3B, on pace for a 5 WAR season. And he has a very reasonable long-term contract.

He's one of the most valuable 3B in the league. Why worry about specific stats when he's having a very good year? 

[Chisoxmb35]

1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

No I don't want to trade him. I just wish he would start hitting some home runs. And no I don't think there are alot of teams who would want him under the present circumstances. (No power and big contract)

Lol. What a take man. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

No I don't want to trade him. I just wish he would start hitting some home runs. And no I don't think there are alot of teams who would want him under the present circumstances. (No power and big contract)

Probably why your JR letters stopped getting replies.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Him doing well against crap RHP is what I would expect in a normal development. 1st step coming up from only A+ and a year at Schaumburg is struggle against pretty much any RHP. Step 2 : Start hitting the bad RHP with authority and cutting down the K's. Step 3: Develop into the Vaughn everyone hoped he could be .

I think the Sox have handled him well this year.

You've demoted him or replaced him in the lineup 12 times already this year.

[VAfan]

Vaughn certainly had a nice day today, with 2 HR and 4 RBI.  Whether it's crap pitching or not, it's a welcome step forward.  I don't think he will ever be the Sox best hitter, but who knows what is his upside is?  

 

[caulfield12]

Define best hitter.

For the last half-decade, it’s Abreu.

Potential-wise, it’s either Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal or Vaughn.

 

And who knows, maybe Burger.

[YoYoIsMyHero]

4 hours ago, WBWSF said:

No I don't want to trade him. I just wish he would start hitting some home runs. And no I don't think there are alot of teams who would want him under the present circumstances. (No power and big contract)

laughing my fucking ass off

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I'll say this, sure is good news that the Sox kept giving Vaughn his ab's vs righties so he could right the ship. Could be a monster second half from vaughny

[caulfield12]

44 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll say this, sure is good news that the Sox kept giving Vaughn his ab's vs righties so he could right the ship. Could be a monster second half from vaughny

Considering about 3 weeks ago a trip to Charlotte seemed quite possible…he turned the corner at the perfect time, when we needed secondary contributors to take over more of the offensive load.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You've demoted him or replaced him in the lineup 12 times already this year.

Not sure what that means or even if I should care but sure I'll take the bait. Sox have played 89 games , Vaughn's played in 75 of them If I have replaced him in the lineup 12 times I've done very close to what the Sox have done ( 14 times not in a game). Even if you didn't literally mean 12 times you came pretty close to what's been actually happening.

The most parroted voices on here said" if you don't play him every day send him down". I never understood that. Keep facing MLB pitching , sit down every once in a while against guys with nasty sliders, keep the confidence level high and hitting well against LHP, keep learning and observing , slowing things down, getting input from coaches and keep making adjustments.

The good ones figure things out.

[WBWSF]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Probably why your JR letters stopped getting replies.

I don't write him anymore. He's stopped replying to my letters so I don't see the point in writing him anymore. Its really a shame he stopped responding to me because most of my letters/ideas were good. Him and I don't know each other personally but we have met. He knows who I am.  He knows that I think he has been a lousy owner with the White Sox. The only positive thing I can see about this ownership is that he has made nothing but money with the franchise. He's very good at making money. Other than that I think his ownership has been a flop. I wish I would have had  the money to buy the team in 1981. I would have made a better owner  of the team than him.

[caulfield12]

33 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

I don't write him anymore. He's stopped replying to my letters so I don't see the point in writing him anymore. Its really a shame he stopped responding to me because most of my letters/ideas were good. Him and I don't know each other personally but we have met. He knows who I am.  He knows that I think he has been a lousy owner with the White Sox. The only positive thing I can see about this ownership is that he has made nothing but money with the franchise. He's very good at making money. Other than that I think his ownership has been a flop. I wish I would have had  the money to buy the team in 1981. I would have made a better owner  of the team than him.

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-billionaire-playbook-how-sports-owners-use-their-teams-to-avoid-millions-in-taxes

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Considering about 3 weeks ago a trip to Charlotte seemed quite possible…he turned the corner at the perfect time, when we needed secondary contributors to take over more of the offensive load.

It only seemed possible to people who haven't been willing to accept that Vaughn was their left fielder and he was not going down to work on things. He was going to work on things at the big league level.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Not sure what that means or even if I should care but sure I'll take the bait. Sox have played 89 games , Vaughn's played in 75 of them If I have replaced him in the lineup 12 times I've done very close to what the Sox have done ( 14 times not in a game). Even if you didn't literally mean 12 times you came pretty close to what's been actually happening.

The most parroted voices on here said" if you don't play him every day send him down". I never understood that. Keep facing MLB pitching , sit down every once in a while against guys with nasty sliders, keep the confidence level high and hitting well against LHP, keep learning and observing , slowing things down, getting input from coaches and keep making adjustments.

The good ones figure things out.

Cali, I'm just messing with you but you can stop pretending you wanted Vaughn to be the everyday left fielder. You've written more words than Hemingway about how Vaughn wasn't the right guy for this team.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

59 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Cali, I'm just messing with you but you can stop pretending you wanted Vaughn to be the everyday left fielder. You've written more words than Hemingway about how Vaughn wasn't the right guy for this team.

Yes I have written so much that I am constantly surprised that I still have people acting like I said I wanted him getting only weak side platoon AB's. Even now you say I have written more words then Hemingway about how "Vaughn wasn't the right guy for this team " yet you did not you quote one of my many posts on Vaughn to reach that conclusion. Truly odd that when I ask people to do that so I can have something to response to that is accurate they don't do it .

I don't like being known as the guy who hates Vaughn because that was never true. All I ever thought was that like any other player who was struggling , that he should be benched once in a while against RHP instead of playing every day. I actually thought people were expecting too much from him with so little minor league experience.

I think LaRussa has done a good job with matching up guys throughout the season with the many injuries.  If we always listened to fans Leury, Lamb, Goodwin, Hamilton would all either have been DFA'd or never used. All I ever wanted was for Vaughn to get good matchups, a good balance between facing LHP and whatever RHP the coaching staff deemed fit for Vaughn to face.

 

[The Kids Can Play]

On 7/10/2021 at 12:19 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

There is no world where burger takes over for Moncada, power outage or not.  Burger is trade bait, which is a nice bonus.

That is an unfair comparison. Moncada struggled for 3 years in the majors (one at Boston and two with the Sox) before exploding with his breakout year in 2019. Burger has only played a short amount of time in the minors and his first time up to the Sox, and so far he hasn't disappointed. We know what we have with Moncada. However the upside of Burger is so much higher IMO. I do think Burger can eventual be our starting 3rd baseman of the future. 

[The Kids Can Play]

IMO you must keep Vaughn, Sheets and Burger. They need to be untouchable, unless you are offered an insane amount of prospects that is so amazing, you cant pass it up. You can trade Mercedes, but good luck!