Fangraphs Farm System Rankings (7/9/21)

[FriendlyNorthsider]

I'm sorry in advance if this has been covered elsewhere or is the wrong place but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs released his updated Farm System Rankings and the Sox are dead last. The Sox are probably top 5 in the league in under 25 year old talent so this highly misleading, but is in important consideration as the deadline approaches.

According to Longenhagen the Sox have just one prospect that grades as a FV 45 and that is Jared Kelley. The number 2 prospect in the system is Zach Burdi who is one of four 40+ FV guys along with Bailey, J Rodriguez, and Adolfo. I take a bit of issue with how low Longenhagen is on Yoelqui and of course the Sox are also poised to sign Colas, but that is still alarming. 

For comparison's sake, the Rays, who have the top farm system according to Fangraphs, have 13 guys who grade out at FV 45 or higher. The team with the second most depleted farm is the Nationals, who have a 3 that are 45 or higher. According to Fangraphs the Rays have 560M in value in their farm system while the Sox have $46 Million. The Sox are one of just two teams under $100M. 

The Sox are inside their championship window and are golden for at least three years thanks to some great trades by Hahn and nailing most every first rounder for the past three years. The state of the system is strong, despite it being dangerously top heavy.

The biggest issue with this is that the Sox have a LOT less trade capital in the minors than most the other sellers at the deadline. The Dodgers have 10 pitchers and 5 hitters at or above Jared Kelley. The Rays, Padres, Red Sox, and Mets are way ahead as well. Oakland and Houston, who are in the bottom third, each have nearly triple the value in prospects. 

Hahn has a very interesting deadline ahead of him. He has two All-Stars and Cy-Young candidates entering free-agency next year. The Sox are firmly in first place and are considered one of the favorites to come out of the AL according to Fangraphs. They realistically have some financial wiggle room to add talent based on comments made earlier in the year and the success of the vanccine/re-opening of GRF. They have a whole at second base and continue to be snake-bitten by injuries. A lot of things point to buying.

That said, the Sox also have a lot of talent coming back to a team that is already firmly in first place. Eloy is rehabbing, Robert is set to return later in the year, and Grandal wont miss much after July if things go to plan. Kopech is every bit the stopper that they hoped he would be, Henricks has been dominant, and Crotchet has managed to keep his elbow in tact.

August will be a much more challenging month for the Sox and for all of the injuries to the hitters, the pitchers have been absolute horses this year. The bullpen as it is is formidable, but a loss of one of the big three would make me feel less than confident against a team like Houston or Tampa. 

The graduation of Vaughn, Kopech, Crotchet, and Madrigal has left the Sox cupboard nearly empty as far as centerpiece guys for impact pieces. Even Kelley was knocked around in his most recent start in the ACL which was undoubtedly attended by lots of deadline sellers. Following the T*tis Jr debacle. the Sox seem reticent to send the raw IFA guys that could develop into studs. Even the next tier of guys like Burger and Sheets are important parts of the 2021 team and would be tough to let go.

One thing that I think the Sox MUST do this deadline is eat money. There will always be rentals that will be made much more affordable to teams that are willing to eat money. Eating bad money (not Heyward bad!) will allow the Sox to be a lot more competitive than teams who are skirting the Salary Cap or are just unwilling to add salary.

Another consideration for Hahn has to be that he will probably be drafting the the bottom fourth of the first round for the next 3-4 years. The pipeline is not going to have the same level of retooling they had with the last five years of picking in the top 11. 

Ive been fairly outspoken about my belief that the Sox need to push chips in that impact the title chances between now and 2024. The state of the Sox farm indicates a reload may not be very likely in 2023 and 2024 when a lot of the core enters Free agency or is very expensive. The point is that Benyamin Bailey may develop into a great player. But it's unlikely it would be for a title contending White Sox team. 

Ultimately, I think the Sox should be willing to eat as much money as Jerry will sign for (and then some). If that isn't enough, then Hahn needs to either decide to pull a Theo and trade whats left of your farm to win a title or to stand pat and hope that this young team is enough to win a title. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

This is pretty much what I've said all along yet one of my fav. posters @Chicago White Sox thinks I am ridiculous for wanting to use the farm now on this year but would not engage me in discussing it. I did not think the farm would be all that helpful in any future window and 2021-24 was the window that @Chicago White Sox specified to me. I don't really see how our opinions differ all that much.

The low low ranking does not shock me at all. I will say however that luckily trades aren't made based on Longenhagen's rankings.

I highly doubt the Sox ever take on salary. I mean they were tapped out just the last off season which was essentially why the Sox ended up with Rodon. JR might be OK with taking on players remaining salaries for whoever they trade for  (somewhere around $10M plus the prospects) but there's not going to be any taking on a bad contract to lower prospect cost . Why should there be unless you don't think there are enough prospects in the whole system worth Escobar and some relievers ?

[beck72]

I'm not concerned about the low ranking. The Sox have enough young talent to sustain years of being at the top of the AL Central. The Sox can use guys in the system to improve their chances of winning this year-that means probably no big position player add but getting two of the best bullpen arms. 

Going forward, to sustain the success, they will need to know who to trade and who to build around. Young guys who have had some success in the bigs can then be traded to add other young talent. It may mean trading a guy like Crochet, Cease or Moncada down the line. The Sox aren't going to spend like the Yankees so the Tampa Bay route of selling high on proven talent should be the route to take.

This year, until the Sox win or get to a World Series, they can be aggressive trading prospects in the minors. 

[Chicago White Sox]

34 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

This is pretty much what I've said all along yet one of my fav. posters @Chicago White Sox thinks I am ridiculous for wanting to use the farm now on this year but would not engage me in discussing it. I did not think the farm would be all that helpful in any future window and 2021-24 was the window that @Chicago White Sox specified to me. I don't really see how our opinions differ all that much.

The low low ranking does not shock me at all. I will say however that luckily trades aren't made based on Longenhagen's rankings.

I highly doubt the Sox ever take on salary. I mean they were tapped out just the last off season which was essentially why the Sox ended up with Rodon. JR might be OK with taking on players remaining salaries for whoever they trade for  (somewhere around $10M plus the prospects) but there's not going to be any taking on a bad contract to lower prospect cost . Why should there be unless you don't think there are enough prospects in the whole system worth Escobar and some relievers ?

I’m all for trading from the system to fill out holes, but you can only cash-in your assets once and you can’t risk having nothing of value to trade in years 2022 to 2024.  I’d be looking at rentals primarily as I think the prospect cost will be substantially less.  Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to add someone like Gallo, but what in the world is he going to cost?  Trading away Crochet weakens the bullpen and takes away a potential SP option in the coming years, but I’d probably be willing to move him in such a deal.  The problem is they will want more and once you start including the Kelley’s & Ramos’ of the world you’ve quickly taken a bottom five system and made it the hands-down the worst in baseball.  Even if you don’t care about a second wave, you’ve greatly reduced your ability to make trades in the future.  I think we’re way better off adding Escobar, Marte (if the Marlins are unable to extent him), & Daniel Hudson than selling the farm for a controllable guy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m all for trading from the system to fill out holes, but you can only cash-in your assets once and you can’t risk having nothing of value to trade in years 2022 to 2024.  I’d be looking at rentals primarily as I think the prospect cost will be substantially less.  Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to add someone like Gallo, but what in the world is he going to cost?  Trading away Crochet weakens the bullpen and takes away a potential SP option in the coming years, but I’d probably be willing to move him in such a deal.  The problem is they will want more and once you start including the Kelley’s & Ramos’ of the world you’ve quickly taken a bottom five system and made it the hands-down the worst in baseball.  Even if you don’t care about a second wave, you’ve greatly reduced your ability to make trades in the future.  I think we’re way better off adding Escobar, Marte (if the Marlins are unable to extent him), & Daniel Hudson than selling the farm for a controllable guy.

The main problem as far as I see it is that the Sox still operate on a year by year basis and will not do what the other rebuild World Series winning teams  like the Astro's and Cubs did to win the World Series. Nor will they trade for big contracts or spend like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros or Cubs did. They also did not focus on the farm system right at the beginning of the rebuild like they should have and the result is in a barren farm right now.

The Cubs signed Lester and Heyward to big contracts and then traded for Chapman and then Quintana to try to extend their window. The Astro's traded for Verlander on August 31th to barely make him eligible for the playoffs by the Sept. 1st deadline.  I don't think there is an August 31th date any more for trades is there ?  The Astro's after winning the World Series traded for Gerrit Cole and then Zack Greineke. Somehow Houston still has a system with more talent than the Sox.

Oakland and Tampa Bay make the playoffs a lot , haven't won a World Series but also still maintain good farm systems.

Boston signed David Price to a huge contract and also signed JD Martinez to a big contract.

The Dodgers spend money everywhere so not much sense talking about them.

The point is it wasn't me who chose to go all in this year it was the Sox when they traded for Lance Lynn since they can't afford trading or signing anyone with a big contract. The farm system is now a wasteland and will take years to build it up again. They also got extremely lucky with Rodon. They got to this point without really spending much. The Sox talk about sustaining success but they will not get as lucky as they have with Lynn and Rodon every year when they need to fill holes.

I don't think it's asking that much to get  a few rentals and some relief pitching by parting with a few pieces from the farm and a little bit of salary for less than half a year . I have no idea if they are interested in Marte, Schwarber or Gallo but they should be. I wouldn't even call Gallo a controllable guy . He's 1.4 years worth of a player. Texas can ask for the moon for him , like they did for Lynn but eventually all they are doing is lessening the cost for him or risking an injury the longer they keep him.

The only thing that will extend the Sox window is finding a way to actually spend money on pitching like all the other World Series teams have done but the Sox appear to be incapable of doing that. I guess we will see eventually with Rodon , Lynn and Giolito. I don't see what difference it makes whether the Sox are the worst farm system or the 2nd or 3rd worst.

Edited July 11, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

I am putting a lot less weight into something like this this year. These guys have so much catching up to do and the Sox “guys” have very little track record. 

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The main problem as far as I see it is that the Sox still operate on a year by year basis and will not do what the other rebuild World Series winning teams  like the Astro's and Cubs did to win the World Series. Nor will they trade for big contracts or spend like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros or Cubs did. They also did not focus on the farm system right at the beginning of the rebuild like they should have and the result is in a barren farm right now.

The Cubs signed Lester and Heyward to big contracts and then traded for Chapman and then Quintana to try to extend their window. The Astro's traded for Verlander on August 31th to barely make him eligible for the playoffs by the Sept. 1st deadline.  I don't think there is an August 31th date any more for trades is there ?  The Astro's after winning the World Series traded for Gerrit Cole and then Zack Greineke. Somehow Houston still has a top ranked system.

Oakland and Tampa Bay make the playoffs a lot , haven't won a World Series but also still maintain good farm systems.

Boston signed David Price to a huge contract and also signed JD Martinez to a big contract.

The Dodgers spend money everywhere so not much sense talking about them.

The point is it wasn't me who chose to go all in this year it was the Sox when they traded for Lance Lynn since they can't afford trading or signing anyone with a big contract. The farm system is now a wasteland and will take years to build it up again. They also got extremely lucky with Rodon. They got to this point without really spending much. The Sox talk about sustaining success but they will not get as lucky as they have with Lynn and Rodon every year when they need to fill holes.

I don't think it's asking that much to get  a few rentals and some relief pitching by parting with a few pieces from the farm and a little bit of salary for less than half a year . I have no idea if they are interested in Marte, Schwarber or Gallo but they should be. I wouldn't even call Gallo a controllable guy . He's 1.4 years worth of a player. Texas can ask for the moon for him , like they did for Lynn but eventually all they are doing is lessening the cost for him or risking an injury the longer they keep him.

The only thing that will extend the Sox window is finding a way to actually spend money on pitching like all the other World Series teams have done but the Sox appear to be incapable of doing that. I guess we will see eventually with Rodon , Lynn and Giolito. I don't see what difference it makes whether the Sox are the worst farm system or the 2nd or 3rd worst.

We don’t know what the Sox are capable of as the pandemic clearly caused Jerry to go cheap.  That being said, I fully expect the Sox to resign Lynn and move Kopech into the rotation full-time.  A 1-5 of Lynn, Gioltio, Kopech, Cease, & Keuchel is still very strong.  If we can afford a RF and some bullpen upgrades, we should run away with the Central next year (health permitting).  This season doesn’t need to be an “all-in” year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We don’t know what the Sox are capable of as the pandemic clearly caused Jerry to go cheap.  That being said, I fully expect the Sox to resign Lynn and move Kopech into the rotation full-time.  A 1-5 of Lynn, Gioltio, Kopech, Cease, & Keuchel is still very strong.  If we can afford a RF and some bullpen upgrades, we should run away with the Central next year (health permitting).  This season doesn’t need to be an “all-in” year.

Caused Jerry to go cheap ? When hasn't he been cheap ? What you fully expect and what will happen could be 2 very separate things.

I guess the difference between us is I don't see trading prospects from a bottom ranked farm team to supplement a very strong contender as going all in . It's just doing what needs to be done like all teams who are serious about winning do.

[ShandyMan]

I mean at some point you’re gonna go through a maturation period. We need to reload but id much rather watch this team, than the one 2-3 years ago with a top farm

[SCCWS]

6 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

I'm sorry in advance if this has been covered elsewhere or is the wrong place but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs released his updated Farm System Rankings and the Sox are dead last. The Sox are probably top 5 in the league in under 25 year old talent so this highly misleading, but is in important consideration as the deadline approaches.

According to Longenhagen the Sox have just one prospect that grades as a FV 45 and that is Jared Kelley. The number 2 prospect in the system is Zach Burdi who is one of four 40+ FV guys along with Bailey, J Rodriguez, and Adolfo. I take a bit of issue with how low Longenhagen is on Yoelqui and of course the Sox are also poised to sign Colas, but that is still alarming. 

For comparison's sake, the Rays, who have the top farm system according to Fangraphs, have 13 guys who grade out at FV 45 or higher. The team with the second most depleted farm is the Nationals, who have a 3 that are 45 or higher. According to Fangraphs the Rays have 560M in value in their farm system while the Sox have $46 Million. The Sox are one of just two teams under $100M. 

The Sox are inside their championship window and are golden for at least three years thanks to some great trades by Hahn and nailing most every first rounder for the past three years. The state of the system is strong, despite it being dangerously top heavy.

The biggest issue with this is that the Sox have a LOT less trade capital in the minors than most the other sellers at the deadline. The Dodgers have 10 pitchers and 5 hitters at or above Jared Kelley. The Rays, Padres, Red Sox, and Mets are way ahead as well. Oakland and Houston, who are in the bottom third, each have nearly triple the value in prospects. 

Hahn has a very interesting deadline ahead of him. He has two All-Stars and Cy-Young candidates entering free-agency next year. The Sox are firmly in first place and are considered one of the favorites to come out of the AL according to Fangraphs. They realistically have some financial wiggle room to add talent based on comments made earlier in the year and the success of the vanccine/re-opening of GRF. They have a whole at second base and continue to be snake-bitten by injuries. A lot of things point to buying.

That said, the Sox also have a lot of talent coming back to a team that is already firmly in first place. Eloy is rehabbing, Robert is set to return later in the year, and Grandal wont miss much after July if things go to plan. Kopech is every bit the stopper that they hoped he would be, Henricks has been dominant, and Crotchet has managed to keep his elbow in tact.

August will be a much more challenging month for the Sox and for all of the injuries to the hitters, the pitchers have been absolute horses this year. The bullpen as it is is formidable, but a loss of one of the big three would make me feel less than confident against a team like Houston or Tampa. 

The graduation of Vaughn, Kopech, Crotchet, and Madrigal has left the Sox cupboard nearly empty as far as centerpiece guys for impact pieces. Even Kelley was knocked around in his most recent start in the ACL which was undoubtedly attended by lots of deadline sellers. Following the T*tis Jr debacle. the Sox seem reticent to send the raw IFA guys that could develop into studs. Even the next tier of guys like Burger and Sheets are important parts of the 2021 team and would be tough to let go.

One thing that I think the Sox MUST do this deadline is eat money. There will always be rentals that will be made much more affordable to teams that are willing to eat money. Eating bad money (not Heyward bad!) will allow the Sox to be a lot more competitive than teams who are skirting the Salary Cap or are just unwilling to add salary.

Another consideration for Hahn has to be that he will probably be drafting the the bottom fourth of the first round for the next 3-4 years. The pipeline is not going to have the same level of retooling they had with the last five years of picking in the top 11. 

Ive been fairly outspoken about my belief that the Sox need to push chips in that impact the title chances between now and 2024. The state of the Sox farm indicates a reload may not be very likely in 2023 and 2024 when a lot of the core enters Free agency or is very expensive. The point is that Benyamin Bailey may develop into a great player. But it's unlikely it would be for a title contending White Sox team. 

Ultimately, I think the Sox should be willing to eat as much money as Jerry will sign for (and then some). If that isn't enough, then Hahn needs to either decide to pull a Theo and trade whats left of your farm to win a title or to stand pat and hope that this young team is enough to win a title. 

Offensively, I think we are in good shape in the infield for the future. My concern is we really need a  corner outfielder and a catcher down the road. The Sox have done a good job of covering LF and RF this season but they need to find a long term solution via FA. Is Vaughn the heir apparent in LF or IB?   Will Collins ever emerge as a starting catcher as Grandal has some mileage on him. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, staxxington said:

I mean at some point you’re gonna go through a maturation period. We need to reload but id much rather watch this team, than the one 2-3 years ago with a top farm

I'd rather watch this team make a serious run at the World Series this year than count on Jerry to reload the starting pitching staff or count on  2 of Giolito,Cease, Kopech or Keuchel to  pitch as great as Rodon and Lynn have this year.

[Chicago White Sox]

38 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Caused Jerry to go cheap ? When hasn't he been cheap ? What you fully expect and what will happen could be 2 very separate things.

I guess the difference between us is I don't see trading prospects from a bottom ranked farm team to supplement a very strong contender as going all in . It's just doing what needs to be done like all teams who are serious about winning do.

I wouldn’t say he hasn’t always gone cheap as he’s consistently rocked top 10 when attendance has been there.  After the 2005 season, we were one of the biggest spenders in the game and were regularly in the top five for a short stretch.  Point is Jerry won’t spend money to make money, but he will reinvest revenue back into the team.  And with attendance & ratings way up, I’m not going on a huge limb here when I say Jerry’s financial situation looks incredibly healthy at the moment.  Unless he uses a potential work stoppage to go cheap again (which has a non-zero chance), I’m confident we will see decent payroll increases in the coming years.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Offensively, I think we are in good shape in the infield for the future. My concern is we really need a  corner outfielder and a catcher down the road. The Sox have done a good job of covering LF and RF this season but they need to find a long term solution via FA. Is Vaughn the heir apparent in LF or IB?   Will Collins ever emerge as a starting catcher as Grandal has some mileage on him. 

Pitching wins championships. You can get by having a defense 1st catcher and strong positions players at most of the positions with a good balance of left handers and right handers.

Usually the best pitchers cost a lot of money. The Sox got 2 of the best for as cheap as possible but only for 1 year for each of them. Jon Lester, Verlander, David Price, Kershaw, Scherzer, Strasburg all cost a lot for World Series winning teams. Pitching will always be the key to winning year after year. The Sox already have many very good positions players when they are healthy and the best is yet to come from Vaughn, Eloy, Madrigal and Robert .

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I wouldn’t say he hasn’t always gone cheap as he’s consistently rocked top 10 when attendance has been there.  After the 2005 season, we were one of the biggest spenders in the game and were regularly in the top five for a short stretch.  Point is Jerry won’t spend money to make money, but he will reinvestment revenue back into the team.  And with attendance & ratings way up, I’m not going on a huge limb here when I say Jerry’s financial situation looks incredibly healthy at the moment.  Unless he uses a potential work stoppage to go cheap again (which has a non-zero chance), I’m confident we will see decent payroll increases in the coming years.

Yeah I know I've heard the top 10 stuff before many times but somehow it's always tied into attendance which is what I meant when I said the Sox operate on a year to year basis. But the results with producing consistent winning teams shouldn't always be tied to attendance but it seems to still be that way.

If the fans and Covid and the impending strike are going to always give JR an out for not spending money then you are just carrying water for him by believing the extended run stuff. He will always have an excuse to deal with middle tier free agents who flop just as much as they succeed and tems that lose more than they win.

I suppose next you will be telling me the Sox had some great years in the 90's that didn't produce World Series winners either when the best chance at winning in the 90's was sabotaged by Jerry in 94.

You can't run a team financially on a year to year basis based on fan attendance and then tell me to believe you when you talk about sustained winning especially when you sabotage the farm consistently over the years.

Edited July 11, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Two-Gun Pete]

38 minutes ago, staxxington said:

I mean at some point you’re gonna go through a maturation period. We need to reload but id much rather watch this team, than the one 2-3 years ago with a top farm

Why does it have to be one or the other?

TB are in contention, and they have a top farm system. LAD are in contention, and have more talent than the SOX. The Houston Assholes are in contention and have more MiLB talent than the SOX.

Smarter orgs can do both contend, AND have talent in MiLB at the same time.

The other side of the coin is that when posters pine for big ticket items in trade, like Gallo, it means that it ain't gonna happen, because there ain't anything to trade away.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Why does it have to be one or the other?

TB are in contention, and they have a top farm system. LAD are in contention, and have more talent than the SOX. The Houston Assholes are in contention and have more MiLB talent than the SOX.

Smarter orgs can do both contend, AND have talent in MiLB at the same time.

The other side of the coin is that when posters pine for big ticket items in trade, like Gallo, it means that it ain't gonna happen, because there ain't anything to trade away.

And Gallo shouldn't even be called a big ticket. 1.4 years of him but unfortunately even that seems like a big ticket to the Sox. Texas is just going to screw themselves with him like they did with Lynn.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yeah I know I've heard the top 10 stuff before many times but somehow it's always tied into attendance which is what I meant when I said the Sox operate on a year to year basis. But the results with producing consistent winning teams shouldn't always be tied to attendance but it seems to still be that way.

If the fans and Covid and the impending strike are going to always give JR an out for not spending money then you are just carrying water for him by believing the extended run stuff. He will always have an excuse to deal with middle tier free agents who flop just as much as they succeed and tems that lose more than they win.

I suppose next you will be telling me the Sox had some great years in the 90's that didn't produce World Series winners either when the best chance at winning in the 90's was sabotaged by Jerry in 94.

You can't run a team financially on a year to year basis based on fan attendance and then tell me to believe you when you talk about sustained winning when you sabotage the farm consistently over the years.

The bulk of our talent is locked up for the next three years at minimum.  I’m not going on a limb to think we can go on an “extended run” from 2021 to 2024 in the weakest division in baseball.  What are you going to do if we trade the handful of our attractive trade chips we have and don’t win a World Series?  Again, just because Lynn & Rodon are free agents doesn’t mean the window is suddenly ending.  Kopech can replace one of them and he may have the highest ceiling of any starter in baseball not named deGrom.  I still maintain high confidence that Lynn will back on a two or three year deal as wants to win and appears to love it here.  We will almost certainly offer Rodon a QO and given how effective those were at keeping Gausman & Stroman, there’s a chance he could back for the 2022 season.  Point is the sky is not falling and we can’t afford to panic and shorten our window, which should last at least through the 2024 season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The bulk of our talent is locked up for the next three years at minimum.  I’m not going on a limb to think we can go on an “extended run” from 2021 to 2024 in the weakest division in baseball.  What are you going to do if we trade the handful of our attractive trade chips we have and don’t win a World Series?  Again, just because Lynn & Rodon are free agents doesn’t mean the window is suddenly ending.  Kopech can replace one of them and he may have the highest ceiling of any starter in baseball not named deGrom.  I still maintain high confidence that Lynn will back on a two or three year deal as wants to win and appears to love it here.  We will almost certainly offer Rodon a QO and given how effective those were at keeping Gausman & Stroman, there’s a chance he could back for the 2022 season.  Point is the sky is not falling and we can’t afford to panic and shorten our window, which should last at least through the 2024 season.

Why does the sky having to falling or be called panicking just because you want to win the World Series in a year you could win the World Series ?

If we trade  the few attractive trade chips we have from the bottom ranked farm system we will still be at the bottom . How many of them to you think are going to help the Sox in 2021-24 ? Most of the truly attractive pieces are in Kanny and some like Sheets and Burger are already here but certainly are tradable assets.

Anyway I hope your optimism that Lynn and Rodon can be retained and your faith in Jerry is rewarded and I don't think if you are disappointed I will come back and say I told you so. Perhaps one of us will be man enough to remember our conversation and say "Hey you were right" but it might take till after the 2024 season to know it.

I think the odds are on my side since winning a World Series is always a long shot anyway no matter what you do with JR in control. Maybe we both can be right and the Sox can sign just enough rentals without giving away the best of the limited amount of what you would call our best prospects this year and still make the World Series.

[ChiSoxJon]

Predraft: How would we rank our Top 10 prospects right now?

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Predraft: How would we rank our Top 10 prospects right now?

Here’s how I have them ranked at the moment:

Top 10 List (Pipeline Rank | Level | Age)

1. Jared Kelley, RHP (#1 | Low A | 19)
2. Bryan Ramos, 3B/2B (#12 | Low A | 19)
3. Jake Burger, 3B (#11 | Majors | 25)
4. Yoelqui Cespedes, OF (#2 | High A | 23)
5. Jose Rodriguez, SS (#14 | Low A | 20)
6. Jonathan Stiever, RHP (#4 | AAA | 24)
7. Matthew Thompson, RHP (#3 | Low A | 20)
8. Norge Vera, RHP (#7 | N/A | 21)
9. Andrew Dalquist, RHP (#5 | Low A | 20)
10. Gavin Sheets 1B/OF (#9 | Majors | 25)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

37 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Predraft: How would we rank our Top 10 prospects right now?

At the moment not very highly apparently according to Longenhagen and the bulk of them are still in the low minors. Our #6 prospect Adolfo has little  value because of injuries and the short period of time the Sox have to make a decision on him. I don't know if Future Sox has made an updated evaluation of our top prospects since February and if they have it isn't pinned on the Future Sox section of Soxtalk nor do I see it on the Future Sox website . I would trust Future Sox more on the ranking than MLB.com who do have an updated list that includes Rutherford and Luis Gonzales but not Burger who I would personally rank at #1.

Cespedes has a chance to be a fast riser but most of the pitchers except for Stievers  will have a long climb to reach the majors or become ranked in the top 100. Pitcher Norge Vera probably will be in the Future Sox Top 10 but hasn't even started his pro career yet.

Most of the best position prospects are also in the low minors and not sure where they rank in the top 30 since I can't find that from Future Sox.

Edit. The updated version of Future Sox list will come out after the trade deadline.

Edited July 11, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

I am putting a lot less weight into something like this this year. These guys have so much catching up to do and the Sox “guys” have very little track record. 

Agreed. I respect Longenhagen‘s analysis on a lot of things, but he always come across as more bullish and opinionated that most. I’m not arguing the Sox have a bottom tier system right now, but to think it’s the worst and put Burdi #2 seems wrong.

[bmags]

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Agreed. I respect Longenhagen‘s analysis on a lot of things, but he always come across as more bullish and opinionated that most. I’m not arguing the Sox have a bottom tier system right now, but to think it’s the worst and put Burdi #2 seems wrong.

For me it’s just as much not getting mad at only one 45. 

[SCCWS]

9 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Pitching wins championships. You can get by having a defense 1st catcher and strong positions players at most of the positions with a good balance of left handers and right handers.

Usually the best pitchers cost a lot of money. The Sox got 2 of the best for as cheap as possible but only for 1 year for each of them. Jon Lester, Verlander, David Price, Kershaw, Scherzer, Strasburg all cost a lot for World Series winning teams. Pitching will always be the key to winning year after year. The Sox already have many very good positions players when they are healthy and the best is yet to come from Vaughn, Eloy, Madrigal and Robert .

Agree but I was talking about  strictly offense. Vaughn, Madrigal, Eloy and Robert do not address RF and C long term. 

[caulfield12]

The only other alternative is trading some combination of Crochet, Burger, Moncada, Giolito and Tim Anderson over the next two or three seasons…the so-called reloading or rebuilding on the fly approach.

Nobody likes that much, right?

With the farm system bottoming out, they’re going to be stuck in the exact same position the Cubs are in right now during the 2025-27 seasons.

Other than hoping we evaluated Cespedes or Colas better than everyone else or that one of the young pitchers like Vera breaks through…we’re left trying to hold onto one of Lynn or Rodon and maximize this earlier half of the window.

 

Of all the big rebuilds, there hasn’t been a team yet to reverse the tide and come back again after peaking.  Look at the Royals and Cubs.  The only team that might pull it off is the Astros this year or next, although they’re likely to lose Correa to FA.

With the Yankees down, Verlander out…we might look back and say this was the best shot to win it, especially with the Dodgers also struggling by their usual standards (but still on pace for 95-100 wins.)