FA Rodon / Lynn - Locked on Sox and SoxTalk Poll

[South Side Hit Men]

Locked on Sox had a good discussion regarding Lynn / Rodon FA contracts on their podcast (23 minutes in).

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-274-all-star-preview-the-rodon-lynn-decisions/id1486968407?i=1000528696124

The missing piece in their discussion was the budget considerations, but both felt Lynn (2-3 years $15M) and Rodon ($20M + 3-4 years) would be good signings, and that the Sox "could afford both",

Since the Sox are at the upper range of all time payroll, I'm not so sure they will spend for both, with the other substantial contracts on the books (assumption for this exercise is Keuchel makes 160 IP this/next year and club picks up these options *, and Arbitration estimates (guesses));

2022 ($136M): Abreu $19.7M, Grandal $18.3M, Keuchel $18M, Moncada $13.8M, Hendriks $13M, Anderson $9.5M, Jimenez $7.3M, Giolito $6M (A), Robert $6M, Bummer $2.5M, Engel $2.2M (A) (Eaton $1M) + 15 More Players ($19M - most at minimum which may increase with CBA plus a few in the $1M-$3M range)

2023 ($137M): Keuchel $20M, Grandal $18.3M, Moncada $17.8M, Hendriks $14M, Anderson * $12.5M, Jimenez $10.3M, Robert $9.5M, Giolito $8M, Bummer $3.8M, Engel $3.0M + 16 More Players ($20M - most at minimum which may increase with CBA plus a few in the $1M-$3M range)

If you're Rick Hahn and given a $155M-$160M budget for 2022 and beyond, what do you do? Sign Rodon at $20M for 3-4 years, Lynn at $15M for 2-3 years, both and trade higher priced contract to make it work, or neither and spend the money on cheaper FA pitchers, trade acquisitions and or hitting.

Edited July 13, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[CentralChamps21]

I would sign both and see if there's a trade market for Keuchel.

[Jack Parkman]

It completely depends on if they trust that Rodon's injuries are truly behind him. 

If so, and Rodon isn't going for top dollar....then him. If they don't trust Rodon to stay healthy, then Lynn. 

I think they'd have a really hard time finding a taker for Keuchel. 

[FriendlyNorthsider]

14 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

It completely depends on if they trust that Rodon's injuries are truly behind him. 

If so, and Rodon isn't going for top dollar....then him. If they don't trust Rodon to stay healthy, then Lynn. 

I think they'd have a really hard time finding a taker for Keuchel. 

I agree on Keuchel. His xERA (5.77!) is in the bottom 10th percentile and his xBA (.305!!) is in bottom 2nd percentile, so the step back from last year doesnt seem like bad luck. If he hits 160 IP this year, his contract becomes a lot harder to move. 

If he hits 160 next year, he'll be paid $20M in 2023. If he doesn't, the team will either have to pick up his option or pay $1.5M on top of the $18M hes owed next year to terminate the deal. A $19.5M rentral that doesn't pitch 160 innings is a poor move. I don't think thats particularly close to his market value at the moment. 

What's particularly frustrating is that the Sox were a set of in-laws away from Zach Wheeler and his 5 WAR he has so far this year. 

 

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

I agree on Keuchel. His xERA (5.77!) is in the bottom 10th percentile and his xBA (.305!!) is in bottom 2nd percentile, so the step back from last year doesnt seem like bad luck. If he hits 160 IP this year, his contract becomes a lot harder to move. 

If he hits 160 next year, he'll be paid $20M in 2023. If he doesn't, the team will either have to pick up his option or pay $1.5M on top of the $18M hes owed next year to terminate the deal. A $19.5M rentral that doesn't pitch 160 innings is a poor move. I don't think thats particularly close to his market value at the moment. 

What's particularly frustrating is that the Sox were a set of in-laws away from Zach Wheeler and his 5 WAR he has so far this year. 

 

They were also Yermin, Dane Dunning and just $3 million to Rodon away from lucky to be hanging around the .500 mark. 

[Soxsi75]

I voted for signing Lynn only, based on the choices given, although I would want to sign both. The reason I passed on the Rodon option is because of the term not the money. I wouldn't give Rodon a 4 year contract. As a matter of fact, with his track record, I don't think anyone will. If they do, they'll be foolish. 

[The Kids Can Play]

Sign both, but your suggested salaries for Rodon are too high. It wont take 20 million. I would definitely trade Kuechel. 

[ptatc]

I would not sign Rodon to a long term deal. With his history and workload this year, I would need to see how he recovers next year. 

[sin city sox fan]

8 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Sign both, but your suggested salaries for Rodon are too high. It wont take 20 million. I would definitely trade Kuechel. 

I could see that salary on a 2 year deal that could be a win / win for all.  Not sure any team is going to offer $20 million per year for 4 years after one solid season.   Also, if Rodon pitches well for 2 additional years, he could be in line for $30 million per season starting in 2024.

[South Side Hit Men]

8 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Sign both, but your suggested salaries for Rodon are too high. It wont take 20 million. I would definitely trade Kuechel. 

 

10 minutes ago, sin city sox fan said:

I could see that salary on a 2 year deal that could be a win / win for all.  Not sure any team is going to offer $20 million per year for 4 years after one solid season.   Also, if Rodon pitches well for 2 additional years, he could be in line for $30 million per season starting in 2024.

Don't think anyone is trading for Keuchel, if they can get Rodon as a FA for the same or less salary (since the first quote says the $20M discussed on the show, and posted by me is "way too high".

Hard to tell what changes will occur, including axing or vastly changing the "luxury tax". A big market team can afford Rodon for 2 or 4 years.

[michelangelosmonkey]

On 7/13/2021 at 1:09 PM, South Side Hit Men said:

Locked on Sox had a good discussion regarding Lynn / Rodon FA contracts on their podcast (23 minutes in).

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-274-all-star-preview-the-rodon-lynn-decisions/id1486968407?i=1000528696124

The missing piece in their discussion was the budget considerations, but both felt Lynn (2-3 years $15M) and Rodon ($20M + 3-4 years) would be good signings, and that the Sox "could afford both",

Since the Sox are at the upper range of all time payroll, I'm not so sure they will spend for both, with the other substantial contracts on the books (assumption for this exercise is Keuchel makes 160 IP this/next year and club picks up these options *, and Arbitration estimates (guesses));

2022 ($136M): Abreu $19.7M, Grandal $18.3M, Keuchel $18M, Moncada $13.8M, Hendriks $13M, Anderson $9.5M, Jimenez $7.3M, Giolito $6M (A), Robert $6M, Bummer $2.5M, Engel $2.2M (A) (Eaton $1M) + 15 More Players ($19M - most at minimum which may increase with CBA plus a few in the $1M-$3M range)

2023 ($137M): Keuchel $20M, Grandal $18.3M, Moncada $17.8M, Hendriks $14M, Anderson * $12.5M, Jimenez $10.3M, Robert $9.5M, Giolito $8M, Bummer $3.8M, Engel $3.0M + 16 More Players ($20M - most at minimum which may increase with CBA plus a few in the $1M-$3M range)

If you're Rick Hahn and given a $155M-$160M budget for 2022 and beyond, what do you do? Sign Rodon at $20M for 3-4 years, Lynn at $15M for 2-3 years, both and trade higher priced contract to make it work, or neither and spend the money on cheaper FA pitchers, trade acquisitions and or hitting.

I think you are overly pessimistic about the size of the payroll going forward...JR has, many times, had a top 5-7 payroll over the last 30 years...he's a smart business man and I think he sees he could have a gold mine here...Cubs look to be headed into a 5 year down cycle...Sox have a LOT of exciting young players...COVID is over...I could see 35,000 per game attendance in 2022 and TV ratings boom as the city shifts to a Sox focus.  That means money will be pouring in...and right now a top 5 payroll is $185 million.  That means Sox have an upside of $50 million from this year...so fitting in Rodon and Lynn sure seems possible.        

[Tony]

I will be incredibly pissed if Lance Lynn isn’t on the 2022 White Sox.

[caulfield12]

32 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think you are overly pessimistic about the size of the payroll going forward...JR has, many times, had a top 5-7 payroll over the last 30 years...he's a smart business man and I think he sees he could have a gold mine here...Cubs look to be headed into a 5 year down cycle...Sox have a LOT of exciting young players...COVID is over...I could see 35,000 per game attendance in 2022 and TV ratings boom as the city shifts to a Sox focus.  That means money will be pouring in...and right now a top 5 payroll is $185 million.  That means Sox have an upside of $50 million from this year...so fitting in Rodon and Lynn sure seems possible.        

I think you’re overestimating the number of Sox fans willing to attend games if the Delta variants (well, any mutations) still haven’t been defeated 100% and the country continues to be split and/or vaccine proof is required for stadium entry like they’re implementing all across Europe now…basically everywhere but the UK where they had 60,000+ at Wembley.

Then again, a World Series or even ALCS appearance with 1-2 major additions in the offseason…still think 27,500-30,000/game is a more realistic target for 2022.  Not even sure cap is 35,000 right now after decreasing stadium size.

Edited July 15, 2021 by caulfield12

[pcq]

14 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They were also Yermin, Dane Dunning and just $3 million to Rodon away from lucky to be hanging around the .500 mark. 

Rodon will get 3-4 years from somebody unless his arm falls off. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, pcq said:

Rodon will get 3-4 years from somebody unless his arm falls off. 

Correct. 

I think they underestimated Lynn's deal and overestimated Rodon's deal. Switch them and it's closer to accurate. 

Even Lynn at 20M is probably underpaying his market value. I expect him to get 22.5M+ on a 2-3 year deal. 

Rodon at $15M is probably underpaid too. I expect him to get $17-18M on a 4 year deal. 

Edited July 15, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

Not sure about 4 years (Eovaldi), but it will be at least three and probably realistic incentives for a fourth not unlike the Keuchel deal.

Two years is too risky to Boras unless at $22.5-25 million per season.

Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Angels, Mets, Yankees can afford a risk like that.  Maybe Houston or Toronto.  The Twins almost have to, unless they want to tear down the whole thing.

Edited July 15, 2021 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Not sure about 4 years (Eovaldi), but it will be at least three and probably realistic incentives for a fourth not unlike the Keuchel deal.

Two years is too risky to Boras unless at $22.5-25 million per season

The Eovaldi deal is Rodon's floor imo. He's better this year than Eovaldi ever has been. 

BTW I don't expect the Sox budget to ever exceed $140M, even during their window. 

Edited July 15, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[credezcrew24]

One thing to consider is that Rodon will have compensation attached to him from a qualifying offer while Lynn won't

[joejoesox]

wonder if Boras would accept a 4 year deal setup like 10m > 16m > 20m (PO) > 28m (CO) obviously heavily backloaded for if he continues to be dominant, but allows the player to bank on themselves after the 3rd year

idk

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The Eovaldi deal is Rodon's floor imo. He's better this year than Eovaldi ever has been. 

BTW I don't expect the Sox budget to ever exceed $140M, even during their window. 

If that’s the case, we better win this year…because resigning Lynn might just about our us over already.

[kleedawg]

On 7/13/2021 at 1:13 PM, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

I would sign both and see if there's a trade market for Keuchel.

As long as Dallas doesn't get hurt or flame out the rest of this year, their will absolutely be a trade market for him. I could see atlanta, philley, detroit, yankees, toronto, and oakland being interested. Recouping a prospect or 2 would be great as well.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think you are overly pessimistic about the size of the payroll going forward...JR has, many times, had a top 5-7 payroll over the last 30 years...he's a smart business man and I think he sees he could have a gold mine here...Cubs look to be headed into a 5 year down cycle...Sox have a LOT of exciting young players...COVID is over...I could see 35,000 per game attendance in 2022 and TV ratings boom as the city shifts to a Sox focus.  That means money will be pouring in...and right now a top 5 payroll is $185 million.  That means Sox have an upside of $50 million from this year...so fitting in Rodon and Lynn sure seems possible.        

Not sure how you can claim a 22% payroll increase from this year / their all time high ($127M to $156M) is “overly pessimistic”, especially in July with no knowledge as to what if anything the Sox will do in the postseason.

Being in the “Top 5” 15 years ago is irrelevant today. The upper revenue teams (Boston NY Cubs LA SF) have widened the revenue advantage over the past 15 years.

The 2006 increase came after a substantial increase in revenue, which was certain (increased sold season tickets and across the board ticket price increases) before they increased payroll. If they win the WS, sure, they may pay for both.

Talking today, Jerry’s RSN finally got around to authorizing paying for Stone and Benetti’s hotel rooms and meals at the end of the month (ESPN 1000 (locally owned, not Disney) has been paying for the much lower generating radio broadcast team’s travel months ago. So I wouldn’t count on a $53M (over 40% increase to $185M) increase in their largest expense as anywhere close to being certain.

[caulfield12]

54 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

wonder if Boras would accept a 4 year deal setup like 10m > 16m > 20m (PO) > 28m (CO) obviously heavily backloaded for if he continues to be dominant, but allows the player to bank on themselves after the 3rd year

idk

That’s why some are bringing up the Moncada higher tier salary kicking in…Giolito potentially leaving after 2023, Anderson after 2024.  There’s just no way to keep all our young players together like the Cubs did (except Darvish) for seven full years.

Sure, Grandal and Keuchel will be gone, but we really start to hit a payroll wall three years down the line. 
 

A deal like you suggested (instead of front loaded for 2022-23) would mean we’d have to run a $175-185 million payroll, essentially.  OR say goodbye to some of our core players beyond the two vets I already mentioned, Hendriks and Abreu.

[tray]

The Sox have 5 very capable starters and, in large measure, that has kept this team in enough games to have the record they have. You need five horsemen pulling the chariot to stay in the race.  Given that,  try to sign Rodon and Lynn.and otherwise fortify the pitching staff as much as possible during the off-season. 

Look North a few miles to see a franchise that let a few veteran pitchers go but did not have a good plan to replace them.  Now Wilson Contreras set off a circular firing squad  in the clubhouse but meanwhile, the blame belongs  squarely on the Ricketts and their hiring of a General  Manager who could not defy the Peter principle.  Now I don't care about the cubs and kind of enjoy witnessing their implosion, but sometimes it is wise to pay some attention to losers in order to avoid their mistakes.

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by tray

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, tray said:

The Sox have 5 very capable starters and, in large measure, that has kept this team in enough games to have the record they have. You need five horsemen pulling the chariot to stay in the race.  Given that,  try to sign Rodon and Lynn.and otherwise fortify the pitching staff as much as possible during the off-season. 

Look North a few miles to see a franchise that let a few veteran pitchers go but did not have a good plan to replace them.  Now Wilson Contreras set off a circular firing squad  in the clubhouse but meanwhile, the blame belongs  squarely on the Ricketts and their hiring of a General  Manager who could not defy the Peter principle.  Now I don't care about the cubs and kind of enjoy witnessing their implosion, but sometimes it is wise to pay some attention to losers in order to avoid their mistakes.

 

 

 

The Darvish deal started out so poorly, but the timing was all off.  Just like Kimbrel pitching like his old self.

That said, they just didn’t produce enough quality replacements on the pitching front from either the draft or international signings.  Of course, they made mistakes as well like Chatwood and Edwin Jackson.