FA Rodon / Lynn - Locked on Sox and SoxTalk Poll

[black jack]

Jerry has the money to keep both and add more. 

[heirdog]

Lynn for 2 years with a 3rd year option makes too much sense not to do.  I voted to sign Lynn only.

I would have voted yes to Rodon too but not at that dollar amount or years.  Unfortunately, someone will probably give him close to that and so White Sox won't be in the running.

Keuchel isn't worth his current contract but if he holds down the ship as a solid #4 innings eater for one more year, perhaps we will have Crochet ready in 2 years (or someone else pops).

Ideally, we can sign Rodon for 2-3 years and trade Keuchel this off season but not likely.

[Jack Parkman]

6 hours ago, black jack said:

Jerry has the money to keep both and add more. 

And he will keep neither and continue to make Adam Eaton type signings. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

17 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Not sure how you can claim a 22% payroll increase from this year / their all time high ($127M to $156M) is “overly pessimistic”, especially in July with no knowledge as to what if anything the Sox will do in the postseason.

Being in the “Top 5” 15 years ago is irrelevant today. The upper revenue teams (Boston NY Cubs LA SF) have widened the revenue advantage over the past 15 years.

The 2006 increase came after a substantial increase in revenue, which was certain (increased sold season tickets and across the board ticket price increases) before they increased payroll. If they win the WS, sure, they may pay for both.

Talking today, Jerry’s RSN finally got around to authorizing paying for Stone and Benetti’s hotel rooms and meals at the end of the month (ESPN 1000 (locally owned, not Disney) has been paying for the much lower generating radio broadcast team’s travel months ago. So I wouldn’t count on a $53M (over 40% increase to $185M) increase in their largest expense as anywhere close to being certain.

I guess my "overly pessimistic" comment is about your cap at $160 million.  I just want to reiterated the point that JR is a businessman and his goal is to make money.   As I look at Sox attendance history it suggests that at that stadium for the last 25 years the floor of attendance is about 20,000 fans...meaning good years or bad 20,000 fans will come out just for the joy of baseball.  If you figure a fan is worth $75...ticket, parking, food, pro shop, etc...that suggests an annual attendance revenue of $120 mill.  With radio and TV rites you figure that is about what it costs to maintain a 15th overall payroll (basically where the Sox have been).   JR understands that the difference between a 65 win team and a 85 win team is probably almost nothing in revenue...so when the team is down he has no real incentive to boost up spending on free agents etc.  But he also understands that when the team is going good attendance goes with it.  White Sox peak attendance was 2006 post World series glory at 36,500.   I think the excitement for this team...with all the young personable stars...will come close to that.  So I arbitrarily used the number of 35,000.  Let's say for the next five years (2022 and on) they average 35,000 always go to the playoffs and win a WS.   An extra 15,000 fans a game comes out to $90 million +. Add in 5 playoff games, $100 per fan with 40,000 fans in attendance is another $20 mill a year bringing us to an annual extra $110,000,00 additional revenue Do you think it's crazy to think the White Sox will spend half of that on player contracts?  That's an extra $55 million which will take the White Sox to about a top 5 payroll...as I suggested.   Add in the fact that they know they saved a couple of hundred million over the last five years with super low payrolls (not much effect on attendance) and the Sox have money to spend and have SAID they will spend money.  If JR is a smart business man (which I think he is) he should be cheap in the down years and spend in the good years...which is exactly what the data shows.   And now we are at a possible turning point for the franchise...possibly the greatest assemblage of talent in 100 years + most of them super young and super cheap+ no currently bad long term contracts + coming out of the pandemic+ Cubs starting a rebuild + millennials changing the face of Chicago...It's not impossible that hitting the accelerator now flips White Sox floor level attendance to more like the Cubs floor attendance for the last 25 years of about 30,000 fans...add in TV and Radio rights increasing.  Honestly the argument against them spending a LOT more is something like "JR has a map to a gold mine but is too cheap to buy a shovel".  The truth will come out in the next few months but I am very bullish.  

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

And he will keep neither and continue to make Adam Eaton type signings. 

I don't believe he signed Adam Eaton to a contract. i believe that was Rick Hahn. He doesn't seem to be that hands on of an owner. I think he gives the budget and the FO works with it. They probably need to go to him with large expenditures. The FO prioritized the Hendriks signing over a significant RF signing.

Edited July 15, 2021 by ptatc

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I think the numbers are flipped. I believe it'll be Lynn 2-3 years at 20 mil per OR Rodon at 3-4 years at 15 mil per... 

In May I'd have said Lynn, due to not being sold on Rodon and his injury history and lack of past performance... Now... I think I'd take the Rodon deal at 4/60mil.. He's sold me... Maybe he is our Arrieta?

Edited July 15, 2021 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I think the numbers are flipped. I believe it'll be Lynn 2-3 years at 20 mil per OR Rodon at 3-4 years at 15 mil per... 

In May I'd have said Lynn, due to not being sold on Rodon and his injury history and lack of past performance... Now... I think I'd take the Rodon deal at 4/60mil.. He's sold me... Maybe he is our Arrieta?

If we're going to debating whether the numbers make sense, I feel compelled to point out that the new CBA is almost certainly going to lead to some changes in how we see contract values, if it is ever signed.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I guess my "overly pessimistic" comment is about your cap at $160 million.  I just want to reiterated the point that JR is a businessman and his goal is to make money.   As I look at Sox attendance history it suggests that at that stadium for the last 25 years the floor of attendance is about 20,000 fans...meaning good years or bad 20,000 fans will come out just for the joy of baseball.  If you figure a fan is worth $75...ticket, parking, food, pro shop, etc...that suggests an annual attendance revenue of $120 mill.  With radio and TV rites you figure that is about what it costs to maintain a 15th overall payroll (basically where the Sox have been).   JR understands that the difference between a 65 win team and a 85 win team is probably almost nothing in revenue...so when the team is down he has no real incentive to boost up spending on free agents etc.  But he also understands that when the team is going good attendance goes with it.  White Sox peak attendance was 2006 post World series glory at 36,500.   I think the excitement for this team...with all the young personable stars...will come close to that.  So I arbitrarily used the number of 35,000.  Let's say for the next five years (2022 and on) they average 35,000 always go to the playoffs and win a WS.   An extra 15,000 fans a game comes out to $90 million +. Add in 5 playoff games, $100 per fan with 40,000 fans in attendance is another $20 mill a year bringing us to an annual extra $110,000,00 additional revenue Do you think it's crazy to think the White Sox will spend half of that on player contracts?  That's an extra $55 million which will take the White Sox to about a top 5 payroll...as I suggested.   Add in the fact that they know they saved a couple of hundred million over the last five years with super low payrolls (not much effect on attendance) and the Sox have money to spend and have SAID they will spend money.  If JR is a smart business man (which I think he is) he should be cheap in the down years and spend in the good years...which is exactly what the data shows.   And now we are at a possible turning point for the franchise...possibly the greatest assemblage of talent in 100 years + most of them super young and super cheap+ no currently bad long term contracts + coming out of the pandemic+ Cubs starting a rebuild + millennials changing the face of Chicago...It's not impossible that hitting the accelerator now flips White Sox floor level attendance to more like the Cubs floor attendance for the last 25 years of about 30,000 fans...add in TV and Radio rights increasing.  Honestly the argument against them spending a LOT more is something like "JR has a map to a gold mine but is too cheap to buy a shovel".  The truth will come out in the next few months but I am very bullish.  

Who would take on the Grandal and Keuchel deals right now, ala Sox with Rios?   

[michelangelosmonkey]

26 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Who would take on the Grandal and Keuchel deals right now, ala Sox with Rios?   

Why would someone need to take on those deals?  Grandal seems like he will continue to have value through his contract (splitting catcher next year with Collins...and DH, 1b etc going forward).  Keuchel is really only guaranteed 2022 (from my understanding has to pitch 160 innings next year to vest for 2023).   Having him and Kopech split innings next year seems fine...and if not...honestly on a staff with Gio, Lynn, Cease, Kopech, Rodon he's your 6th choice so I can see the Sox wanting to trade him and I think for a lot of contending teams he would be a great 4th or 5th starter.   Flip him for a couple of 19 year olds.    

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I think the numbers are flipped. I believe it'll be Lynn 2-3 years at 20 mil per OR Rodon at 3-4 years at 15 mil per... 

In May I'd have said Lynn, due to not being sold on Rodon and his injury history and lack of past performance... Now... I think I'd take the Rodon deal at 4/60mil.. He's sold me... Maybe he is our Arrieta?

I'm sort of with you here. I didn't bother with the poll because I have no idea who will sign at what amount and for how long.

Rodon has a long injury history and has to finish the season, including playoffs, without any major breakdown. He's a long way off from anyone thinking he'd get $20M /year for 3/4 years. But he is 28 and IF ( a very big IF) he can somehow finish the season without any hiccups, he's potentially worth more. But even then he's got that bad medical history that will factor into offers.

Lynn is a lot more reliable but is 34 but $15M seems a bit low for a pitcher of his quality. Someone may offer him 2 years at 50M or someone throws in a 3rd year and offers $60M.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why would someone need to take on those deals?  Grandal seems like he will continue to have value through his contract (splitting catcher next year with Collins...and DH, 1b etc going forward).  Keuchel is really only guaranteed 2022 (from my understanding has to pitch 160 innings next year to vest for 2023).   Having him and Kopech split innings next year seems fine...and if not...honestly on a staff with Gio, Lynn, Cease, Kopech, Rodon he's your 6th choice so I can see the Sox wanting to trade him and I think for a lot of contending teams he would be a great 4th or 5th starter.   Flip him for a couple of 19 year olds.    

Right now, the money to each of them seems "only a little high", and "not all that outrageous for their current performance compared to what that player would get on a functioning free agent market". No one would take those salaries on at the trade deadline, and the broken FA market would make it hard to move them in the offseason - but if the FA market were improved by the next CBA and there were more incentive for teams to spend money, those deals could become fairly easily movable...if the White Sox wanted to do that (not sure it makes any sense right now either).

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm sort of with you here. I didn't bother with the poll because I have no idea who will sign at what amount and for how long.

Rodon has a long injury history and has to finish the season, including playoffs, without any major breakdown. He's a long way off from anyone thinking he'd get $20M /year for 3/4 years. But he is 28 and IF ( a very big IF) he can somehow finish the season without any hiccups, he's potentially worth more. But even then he's got that bad medical history that will factor into offers.

Lynn is a lot more reliable but is 34 but $15M seems a bit low for a pitcher of his quality. Someone may offer him 2 years at 50M or someone throws in a 3rd year and offers $60M.

It's not the best comp in the world but Zack Wheeler had an injury history when he signed his contract. He had 2 healthy and successful seasons, but was older at the time, and Rodon's numbers this year are substantially better than any of Wheeler's Met years.

[DoUEvenShift]

Great article on Carlos 

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-rodon-following-degrom-blueprint

[reiks12]

i have a feeling Rodon will resign with us

[GreenSox]

Sox could probably move Kuechel, just in the sense of "we'll take him if the Sox keep 1/2 his salary."  Offseason salary-dump with no real prospect exchanged.   Sox free up cash; the other team gets a decent pitcher for $10 million, which is around his market rate I'd guess.  

[black jack]

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

i have a feeling Rodon will resign with us

I have the same feeling, but I'm ridiculously optimistic about free agents every year.  

[ron883]

Only way Rodon stays with the team is if he signs an extension during this season. It offers him the stability of being secured for life right damn now. He doesn't have to worry about getting injured or crashing to earth during the rest of the season. If he hits FA, he is as good as gone.

 

 

[ron883]

On 7/14/2021 at 8:16 PM, Jack Parkman said:

The Eovaldi deal is Rodon's floor imo. He's better this year than Eovaldi ever has been. 

BTW I don't expect the Sox budget to ever exceed $140M, even during their window. 

Lolol, oh Jack. I think the Lynn signing sealed your fate for being wrong on this one already - unless you think they dump salary this offseason. 

[CentralChamps21]

12 hours ago, black jack said:

I have the same feeling, but I'm ridiculously optimistic about free agents every year.  

Realistically, the Sox aren't going to be willing to commit to Rodon for more than 2-3 years guaranteed due to his injury history, and I think there will be a pitching-desperate team that's willing to go 4, and maybe even 5. The only way Rodon stays is if (1) he's willing to turn down some guaranteed money to stay and (2) the Sox come up with a very creative contract containing vesting options or something like that.

[he gone.]

On 7/14/2021 at 4:59 AM, FriendlyNorthsider said:

I agree on Keuchel. His xERA (5.77!) is in the bottom 10th percentile and his xBA (.305!!) is in bottom 2nd percentile, so the step back from last year doesnt seem like bad luck. If he hits 160 IP this year, his contract becomes a lot harder to move. 

If he hits 160 next year, he'll be paid $20M in 2023. If he doesn't, the team will either have to pick up his option or pay $1.5M on top of the $18M hes owed next year to terminate the deal. A $19.5M rentral that doesn't pitch 160 innings is a poor move. I don't think thats particularly close to his market value at the moment. 

What's particularly frustrating is that the Sox were a set of in-laws away from Zach Wheeler and his 5 WAR he has so far this year. 

 

Another angle that i just thought of reading this post ... say you do sign both? One year is kind of "Free" if you work a 6 man rotation consistently limiting Keuchel to under 160ip. So say you sign Rodon for $18mm for 4 years ... since he helps limit Keuchel innings and voids his option, it's kind of "free"

[Jack Parkman]

Steve Stone was just on the score and said Rodon is going to test the market, which should surprise nobody. 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[BrittBurnsFan]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Steve Stone was just on the score and said Rodon is going to test the market. 

Yeah...I don't blame him!  If he can get $3 million last winter coming off is resume...what will he get coming off this season (assuming he finishes strong and healthy)?!?!

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Steve Stone was just on the score and said Rodon is going to test the market, which should surprise nobody. 

I might be alone on the branch, but again, I do not want to be the team giving him a multiple year contract.

[CentralChamps21]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I might be alone on the branch, but again, I do not want to be the team giving him a multiple year contract.

I'd offer two, maybe a front-loaded or incentive laced three, but no way I'd offer 4+ and I think there's at least one desperate team that will.

[Jack Parkman]

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I might be alone on the branch, but again, I do not want to be the team giving him a multiple year contract.

Those same risks are why you can get an absolute steal of a deal on a 4 year contract if his injuries are truly behind him. It goes both ways. Most likely a team signs him that can easily absorb a 4/88 mistake. 

Idk why, but my gut says that Rodon is an Angel next year.