Fangraph's 2021 Trade Value Series

[beautox]

Link to 2021 Trade Value: #41 to #50

#47
 

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I’m glad I’m not trying to explain how Anderson does it, because I don’t think I could. For three straight years, he’s slashed and sprinted his way to above-average batting lines despite an approach that could charitably be described as voracious — he swings early and often, hunting pitches he can put in play with authority, which puts a cap on his walks and a floor on his strikeouts. It works, though, and it’s been long enough that betting on it to suddenly stop seems silly. He’s also cleaned up his defense, with only 11 errors in his last 1,050 innings (2020 and ’21) after 26 in the previous 1,050.

One thing holds Anderson’s value down: teams are inherently conservative skeptics who want discounts when they trade for players who don’t fit the way they expect production to look. If Anderson is a four-win player who your model consistently says is a two-win player, you’ll probably ask for a bargain in an attempt to acquire him. That doesn’t mean he’s not a four-win player, but it does feel as though the White Sox would have to settle somewhat if they attempted to move him — which, to be clear, they won’t.  – BC

#44

 

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With an intact hamstring, Madrigal would certainly be a bit higher on this list, though not significantly so — in terms of ability, he is what he is, and while what he is is good, he’s not a superstar, and there are few paths to that level for a player with his profile. On pace for a four-win campaign before the season-ending injury, Madrigal’s skillset, which revolves around extreme contact ability, should provide tremendous year-to-year stability, and barring an unexpected deal, he should be a fixture on West 35th Street through 2026.

While his defense has been less superlative than expected, this is still a 23-year-old player with just a half season under his belt and all of the tools for him to be a solid, and maybe even plus, defender at second base. He will be among the best bets in baseball to hit .300-plus every year, and even if it’s a bit of an empty-average profile with an OPS ceiling in the .800 range, the assuredness of Madrigal’s value provides tremendous comfort in terms of roster construction.  – KG

I always enjoy this list.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Soxtalk in shambles that Madrigal is so high, and would be even higher without injury.

[ChiSox59]

Yoan and Vaughn in the HM category as well.

Dropped Yoan from #7 last year to HM is notable.  

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yoan and Vaughn in the HM category as well.

Dropped Yoan from #7 last year to HM is notable.  

which sorta calls into question their entire methodology. fun exercise, gets people talking, not sure how accurate it is at any given time.  

[raBBit]

Moncada was in the category "team-controlled but value is down" category of honorable mention. 

Included in the group is Alonso (noticeably less power this year), Castillo (horrific first couple months of '21), Chapman (.696 OPS, leads league in K's), DeJong (sub .300 OBP), Lux (injured, not performing well), Luzardo (getting tagged in AAA), Snell (has been awful this year), Paddack (5.49 ERA), & Gleyber Torres (.658 OPS). Doesn't seem like Moncada should be in this group. He's not hitting for power but is playing excellent D and getting on base with the best in the league. I would definitely take him over some of the guys who made the top 50.

 

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Moncada was in the category "team-controlled but value is down" category of honorable mention. 

Included in the group is Alonso (noticeably less power this year), Castillo (horrific first couple months of '21), Chapman (.696 OPS, leads league in K's), DeJong (sub .300 OBP), Lux (injured, not performing well), Luzardo (getting tagged in AAA), Snell (has been awful this year), Paddack (5.49 ERA), & Gleyber Torres (.658 OPS). Doesn't seem like Moncada should be in this group. He's not hitting for power but is playing excellent D and getting on base with the best in the league. I would definitely take him over some of the guys who made the top 50.

 

Agreed.  I think the biggest issue with Moncada looking forward is he's no longer cheap after 21.  He's well worth what he's going to get paid (plus some), but the days of getting monster value for a couple million are gone starting in 22 for Yoan.  Certainly that is why he's not on the list in front of guys like Max Kepler.  Yoan is a significantly better player, but Kepler is due much less moving forward.  

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Moncada was in the category "team-controlled but value is down" category of honorable mention. 

Included in the group is Alonso (noticeably less power this year), Castillo (horrific first couple months of '21), Chapman (.696 OPS, leads league in K's), DeJong (sub .300 OBP), Lux (injured, not performing well), Luzardo (getting tagged in AAA), Snell (has been awful this year), Paddack (5.49 ERA), & Gleyber Torres (.658 OPS). Doesn't seem like Moncada should be in this group. He's not hitting for power but is playing excellent D and getting on base with the best in the league. I would definitely take him over some of the guys who made the top 50.

 

Jeff McNeil is 50.  They flat out say that if a player is obviously worse than McNeil he's outside the list and if he's better, they are probably top 30.  Yoan Moncada is twice the player, quite literally by WAR, that McNeil is, he's also 4 years younger.  Moncada is on a very team friendly deal.  There is no fucking way McNeil has more trade value than Yoan.

[Jake]

Would you rather have Moncada on his current deal or Madrigal with his current contract situation?

[steveno89]

13 minutes ago, Jake said:

Would you rather have Moncada on his current deal or Madrigal with his current contract situation?

Madrigal will never have the power to become a true star, but he absolutely could be an annual 4 ish WAR guy

Moncada still has the greater upside

[gogosox1959]

Imagine that question being asked in April.

[Jake]

FWIW, to me Moncada is the clear answer.

[beautox]

link

#30

This high for a guy who’s struck out 30% of the time in his limited major league playing time? Well, yeah. Robert is one of the few players we didn’t move at all as we iterated our list. Everyone seemed pretty much fine with him around here, though he might have been in a very different spot if he hadn’t gotten hurt and had kept playing like he was early this season before tearing his hip flexor while running the bases. He’s one of the best outfield defenders in baseball, full stop, and at just 24 you can expect that to keep going. He’s also been an above-average hitter, even with a borderline-disastrous approach at the plate, because he just hits it that hard when he connects.

I thought a lot about Robert’s value in relation to Trent Grisham’s while compiling this list. I initially had Grisham higher, but I understand why Robert could fetch more in trade. Grisham’s been better so far, and I like his approach much more, but their production hasn’t been that different, and the way Robert does it — all smashed home runs and blinding athleticism — makes his current production feel like more of a floor than a ceiling. He’s also under team control until 2027, thanks to two club options on his affordable deal. I’m not sure there’s much of a bias against under-the-radar performers anymore; if these two players were around 10 years ago, Grisham might have finished out of the top 50 while nerds wailed and rent their garments. But the 30-35 area feels about right for both of them, and I’m comfortable having Robert higher, even if reasonable people could disagree on the exact ordering.  – BC


#28

Giolito has garnered a handful of down-ballot Cy Young votes over the past two years and while he’s slipped a bit in 2021, his raw numbers suggest that a second-half surge is hardly out the question (and might earn him a few more come November). Still just 26 and now seen as durable after injuries plagued the early part of his career, Giolito falls short of the true ace designation when polling those in the industry, but he’s just a tick below it and being consistently good is one of the more underrated aspects when evaluating pitchers. “The fact that Giolito got his sh*t pushed in so bad in 2018 and was able to completely reinvent himself at the major league level speaks to how dependable a piece he could be for anyone’s rotation,” one AL executive told me.

Giolito is far from perfect but he knows how to hide his weaknesses. Every secondary pitch in his arsenal plays better than his fastball, but he knows that and goes to his heater less than 50% of the time, an approach that is becoming more normal across the game. His fastball has solid velocity and movement, but Giolito fills the zone more than he commands the pitch, delivering far too many center-cut versions of it, which has led to more fly balls and leaves him a bit prone to home runs. Still, this is some necessary nitpicking of a very good rotation piece with two manageable years of arbitration remaining.  – KG

[caulfield12]

On 7/20/2021 at 5:32 AM, gogosox1959 said:

Imagine that question being asked in April.

This was updated for 1/2 of 2021, because Moncada outside of the Top 50 when he’s been ranked around 7-10 to a bottom of the thirties in fWAR makes little sense.

Unless you assume/d the Covid-19 version was him going forward.

Or they’re counting that contract on the back end as the primary fault or flaw.

So the interesting one is going to be Jimenez ahead of Robert with a much lower fWAR ceiling.   Vaughn’s a tough player to get a real read on until he has one full season under his belt at 1B, and coming into a rookie campaign after Covid that’s left guys like Kelenic and Wander Franco scuffling mightily.

[beautox]

There are six sox included so far with honorable mentions; could be as high as 8 with Kopech and Jimenez. 

[caulfield12]

Also, think it’s a pretty foregone conclusion the White Sox won’t give Giolito 5-6 years and $125-165 million…

How much are we willing to give Tim Anderson when he’s going to already be 31 and hitting 32 in midseason 2025?  That seems to be a really controversial contract looming, like the one we gave to Abreu…obviously, at some point, he’s going to lose a step or two on the basepaths and defensively, with perhaps another 5-8 homers added to his output.

Would anyone take Berrios as a FA after 2022 (instead of keeping Lucas) because of his age, lack of TJS (or does that still seem risky his first will be due?), and then also dinging the Twins, who are going to attempt to get a bargain basement deal out of Buxton with his injury history chopping off roughly 50-60% of his potential future value?
 

Giolito wins a World Series, the calculus changes…but then, look at what the Strasburg contract did to Washington, they had to give up Rendon.

As far as Berrios goes, he’s never quite the dominating sum of all his parts…or maybe it’s pitching for a losing team this year.  But we don’t have to look beyond this week to see why one might be leery of making that kind of financial commitment.

[FriendlyNorthsider]

I was about to make a post about this. First of all, this series affirms that the Sox are are in a pretty unique situation compared to most teams. There are teams with as much talent, sure, but none with the amount of cheap control the Sox have. 

I will say, I can nitpick on some of the rankings. In what world would the Sox be okay trading Robert for Ketel Marte. Also, Eloy over Robert is ridiculous. I get that Eloy has 70-80 grade power, but in no way is a DH better than a five-tool guy. 

As a Cubs fan, this list is depressing. I remember when Baez, Bryant, Russell, Rizzo, Hendricks etc. were on here. Now were creating new adjectives to describe hamstring injuries just to ship Bryant off. But as a guy who has loved watching the Sox build this list through the draft and the Sale, Quintana, and Eaton trades, this is pretty awesome to see. 

[joejoesox]

21 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Also, think it’s a pretty foregone conclusion the White Sox won’t give Giolito 5-6 years and $125-165 million…

How much are we willing to give Tim Anderson when he’s going to already be 31 and hitting 32 in midseason 2025?  That seems to be a really controversial contract looming, like the one we gave to Abreu…obviously, at some point, he’s going to lose a step or two on the basepaths and defensively, with perhaps another 5-8 homers added to his output.

Would anyone take Berrios as a FA after 2022 (instead of keeping Lucas) because of his age, lack of TJS (or does that still seem risky his first will be due?), and then also dinging the Twins, who are going to attempt to get a bargain basement deal out of Buxton with his injury history chopping off roughly 50-60% of his potential future value?
 

Giolito wins a World Series, the calculus changes…but then, look at what the Strasburg contract did to Washington, they had to give up Rendon.

As far as Berrios goes, he’s never quite the dominating sum of all his parts…or maybe it’s pitching for a losing team this year.  But we don’t have to look beyond this week to see why one might be leery of making that kind of financial commitment.

I think Anderson gets extended another 4 years in his walk year

[Jake]

I'm still trying to figure out if Kopech and/or Eloy will be in the top 10 or left off entirely.

EDIT: On reflection, I don't think they'll be on there at all. Eloy didn't make it last season and there's no way he's raised his stock enough to go into the top 10. Same goes for Kopech.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Jake

[ChiSox59]

42 minutes ago, Jake said:

I'm still trying to figure out if Kopech and/or Eloy will be in the top 10 or left off entirely.

EDIT: On reflection, I don't think they'll be on there at all. Eloy didn't make it last season and there's no way he's raised his stock enough to go into the top 10. Same goes for Kopech.

Seems crazy to me that Yordan Alvarez is 11, and Eloy doesn't make the list.

Also crazy that Kopech doesn't make the top 75 or so trade values.  Hard disagree on that one.  

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Seems crazy to me that Yordan Alvarez is 11, and Eloy doesn't make the list.

Also crazy that Kopech doesn't make the top 75 or so trade values.  Hard disagree on that one.  

I can get Kopech.  He only has four years of control (three of which are arbitration) and right now his ability to be a full season starter next year is at stake due to a lack of innings.  And while he looks like the real deal coming out of the bullpen, he hasn’t proven anything as a major league starter and I’m sure that’s being held against him.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s super valuable, but I get their argument for not including him at the moment.

The Eloy exclusion is much more egregious IMO and more or less indefensible unless you play the “he will always get injured” card.  If he does stay healthy, I think he’ll quickly develop into a top 10 hitter.  His mix of hit tool & power makes him so special and his contract is super reasonable (maxes out at $18.5M), even if he ends up spending a lot of time at DH.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[raBBit]

26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Seems crazy to me that Yordan Alvarez is 11, and Eloy doesn't make the list.

Also crazy that Kopech doesn't make the top 75 or so trade values.  Hard disagree on that one.  

People underrate Alvarez. He doesn't really play the field (has at least 10 starts in the outfield this year) but since he's been in the league, he has the highest wRC+ in baseball other than Trout (minimum 500 PAs).

[Tony]

Nick Madrigal does not have more value in a trade package than Eloy Jimenez. That's bananaland.

[CeaseAndExist]

They've been getting trashed in the comments for leaving out Moncada. This series is usually good but whoever is doing it this year is just bad at it

[caulfield12]

If Moncada, Jimenez or even Kopech were with the Yankees, they'd all be Top 25-30.  About as ridiculous as comparing Robert and Trent Grisham. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can get Kopech.  He only has four years of control (three of which are arbitration) and right now his ability to be a full season starter next year is at stake due to a lack of innings.  And while he looks like the real deal coming out of the bullpen, he hasn’t proven anything as a major league starter and I’m sure that’s being held against him.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s super valuable, but I get their argument for not including him at the moment.

The Eloy exclusion is much more egregious IMO and more or less indefensible unless you play the “he will always get injured” card.  If he does stay healthy, I think he’ll quickly develop into a top 10 hitter.  His mix of hit tool & power makes him so special and his contract is super reasonable (maxes out at $18.5M), even if he ends up spending a lot of time at DH.

I know the list is subjective but are you seeing any pattern where guys like Kopech, Jimenez, Robert, and Moncada's values shrank due to injuries, Covid problems or in the case of Kopech, as you pointed out, missing a year and being unable to build value as a SP. After all, when value is concerned being on the field probably means more than anything along with consistency of performance when on the field and when you become a free agent.

In other words, sometimes it's a matter of circumstances like Alvarez got hurt but it was in 2020 and anyone who played 2020 couldn't really build much value because of the 60 game season. 2020 seemed like it could've been a breakout year for Eloy but 60 was not enough to establish that and in 2021 his season will be comparable to 2020 with perhaps worst stats coming off an injury. That's 2 of his prime value years. So really all he has is his rookie year ,a bunch of injuries, and negative defensive value while having a year less control than Alvarez while Alvarez has 2x the amount of WAR.

If he does stay healthy is not what has happened so far.