The White Sox Are Good, But Can They Be Great

[gogosox1959]

538 is a well respected statistical based sports/politics website.  This week they published the linked, lengthy analysis; it's well worth a read.  (I didn't see it posted anywhere on soxtalk).

"lessons to be drawn from Chicago’s season, about the importance of organizational flexibility and prudence in roster building. The White Sox have sidestepped the flimsiness that can hamper teams over-reliant on marquee names, leaning instead on a cast of able fill-ins and MLB’s most consistent starting rotation"

"Despite a relative lack of top-line success, (Anderson, Abreu and Moncada),...The best news for White Sox fans is that there’s still time for those original expectations to pay off. Plain bad luck explains part of Abreu’s disappointing follow-up to his MVP campaign...."

They currently give the sox an 8% chance of winning the WS.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-white-sox-are-good-but-can-they-be-great/

[CentralChamps21]

A very key line from this article:

Quote

Across the board, Chicago attended to both sides of the staff-building process: maximizing potential, yes, but also minimizing how much can go wrong.

If you want the highest probability to win a World Series, reaching the postseason for multiple years is more important than assembling the best team in any one year.

The importance of 5th starters, backup catchers, and 7th relievers diminish in the postseason. The plucky, 90-win team with no chance to win more games than the $260 million Dodgers during the regular season is no worse than a 2-1 underdog in a playoff series if they can get in.

A team that is a 2-1 favorite in every round of the postseason is still just under 30% to win the World Series.

The Sox traded a good prospect for Lance Lynn, not just based on his Cy Young potential but because of his reliability. Keuchel, while on the downside of his career will still be a good value if he remains reliable.

[SCCWS]

I think the health of a team going into the playoffs and how they are playing in September may determine success. The Sox have been up and down for about a month. Does Grandal being out affect the pitching?  If so then the backup catcher does impact a team. If guys like TA or Abreu are out for postseason, that could have a major impact. Gio or Lynn are really important pieces of our success. Maybe having Kimbrel is now insurance on Hendricks who is also a key component. 

But maybe we arrive healthy and opponents have injuries going into playoffs and we get an advantage. So much can happen between now and lat September affecting all the contenders that it is too early to speculate.   

[CentralChamps21]

20 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I think the health of a team going into the playoffs and how they are playing in September may determine success. The Sox have been up and down for about a month. Does Grandal being out affect the pitching?  If so then the backup catcher does impact a team. If guys like TA or Abreu are out for postseason, that could have a major impact. Gio or Lynn are really important pieces of our success. Maybe having Kimbrel is now insurance on Hendricks who is also a key component. 

But maybe we arrive healthy and opponents have injuries going into playoffs and we get an advantage. So much can happen between now and lat September affecting all the contenders that it is too early to speculate.   

Aside from health, I think the biggest factor will be getting TA going. We need that spark at the top of the lineup. Going to be hard to beat good teams if he doesn't figure it out.