Revisit of 2018 Draft

[FriendlyNorthsider]

If the Sox win the World Series this year (or next!) it will be in large part due to the 2018 MLB Draft that currently features zero players on the big league squad. There is a lot of emphasis on homegrown talent, but cashing in on draft picks while they're still prospects can be just as important, especially when you need to make players timelines fit into a championship window. Here's a look back to the 2018 draft.

 

Round 1(4):  Nick Madrigal 
Current Team: Chicago Cubs (Traded with Codi Heuer for Craig Kimbrel)

Revisionist historians (Steve Stone) have labeled this pick a reach, but most experts either mocked the pick for the Sox or had the Phillies selecting him at number 3. Madrigal was taken one pick ahead of Jonathan India who is having a 2.3 WAR season for the Reds and two ahead of Jered Kelenic who was a top 10 prospect preseason before his rough start. Maybe the defense and baserunning were overrated as Stone has said, but that is not the White Sox concern anymore. After Madrigal's injury, the Sox needed a second basemen for the title run and acquired Cesar Hernandez  who is signed until 2022 making Nicky "Two-Strikes" expendable. This pick will be one of the more panned selections (unfairly, IMO) in recent team history if the Sox don't win a ring during this title window. Cashing in the pick on a hall of fame closer is still a pretty solid return. Certainly better than the Atheltics drafting Kyler Murray at 9 over Grayson Rodriguez (11), Jordan Groshans (12), and Logan Gilbert (14).

Round 2(46) Steele Walker
Current Team: Texas Rangers (Traded with Dane Dunning for Lance "Cy" Lynn

The Sox drafted a 4-YR college outfielder out of Oklahama in lefty Steele Walker with the third pick of the second round. He was selected two spots ahead of Simeon Woods-Richardon and before mid-season top 20 prospect Brennan Davis (pick 62), but is one of the better picks of the round. In his first full year of pro ball, Walker slashed .284/.361/.451 with 10 homers in mostly High A. His year 23 season was wasted by COVID, which is a shame because a lot could've been learned by how he handled AA. Still, no regrats, as he still had enough value to be flipped along with Dane Dunning for Lance Lynn. Dunning has been pretty good this year (108 ERA+. 3.58 FIP) but Lance Lynn has been an ace for the Sox this year AND signed a very reasonable extension. Walker just got called up to AAA after a respectable 103 wRC+ in AA to start the year. Fangraphs has his as a 45+ prospect, which would make him the top hitter in the system. Walker is going to need to go on the Rangers 40-man roster this year, which is of course less of a consideration for a rebuilding team. If Lynn struggled this year, or didn't extend, there would always be questions about this trade (sans a ring of course). But as it stands, this trade, and therefore this pick, was a success.

Round 3(81) Konnor Pilkington 
Current Team: Cleveland Guardians (Traded for Cesar Hernandez)

The Sox went for there third college senior of the draft, this time selecting a pitching in Mississippi State lefty Konnor Pilkington with the 3rd pick of round 3. If you were doing a redraft of the third round Pilkington would be one of the first few off of the board after Cal Raleigh (SEA), Kyle Isbel (KC),  and maybe Owen White (currently on CLE). This was a pure scouting play for the Sox as Pilkington had a 4.47 ERA his last year with MSU, doesn't have elite "stuff"  and was generally not a very highly regarded prospect at the time. Pilkington spent most of his first full year in High A where he had a 4.99 ERA and 1.44 WHIP after dominating low A. Advanced analytics took notice of his .343 BABIP against which put his FIP at a respectable 3.72. Despite losing the 2020 season to COVID, Pilkington has taken a leap at AA this year. In his 16 starts, Pilkington has a 3.25 ERA and .92 WHIP over 72 innings and had 84 K's to 25 walks despite being almost 2 years young for the level. Pilkington turns 24 next month, but will likely being competing for a spot in the rotation some time next year. Pilkington was traded for 2 cheap years of a gold glove second basemen that is an above league average hitter. To get that level of return for a third round pick is a success by any standard. Still anyone thinking that the sox "stole" Hernandez may be too focused on pre-season rankings. Maybe the Sox will regret this long term, but Hernandez will be a big part of this title window. At the very least, Hernandez playing for the Sox instead of against them in the remaining games with CLE helps with HFA.

Round 4 and Round 5

At this point in the draft, and arguably earlier, its hard to fault any misses on players because each team has had a few goes at the guys. The Sox drafted high schooler Lency Delgado in the fourth who has a .569 OPS in Low A as a 22 year old. The fifth round pick, Jonathan Stiever was a successful pick as he has already cracked the big league roster. Stiever Dominated his first full season in 2019 with a 3.48 ERA with 154 Ks to 27 walks over 145 innings between Low and High A with most of the success in high A. Stiever made two spot starts with the Sox in the lost COVID year, and while they weren't particularly successful, he was able to convince the Sox to skip AA in 2021 and start his year 24 season in AAA. In hindsight that may have been a bit aggressive as he has a 6.19 ERA in AAA this year (with a 4.65 FIP) in 16 starts. Had he had started the year in AA, perhaps the numbers would look a bit better. Even so he's someone that will likely repeat his role as a spot starter with the big league club in 2022. 

Round 6(168) Codi Heuer
Current Team: Chicago Cubs (Traded with Nick Madrigal for Craig Kimbrel)

Originally drafted as a starter, Heuer was quickly converted to becoming a reliever. He dominated his way through the minors in 2019 and was dominant with the big league club in 2020 as a 23 year old. It is rare for a sixth rounder to make the show, and rarer yet to do within 2 years of being drafted. This year, Heuer's command took a step back as his H/9 (and ERA) doubled. Still, Heuer had enough value to be a considerable piece in acquiring Kimbrel. By any standard, Heuer was an absolute hit as a sixth rounder. Following the 6th round, Romy Gonzalez was by far the best pick and was a great find in the 18th round.

Although 4 out of the 5 "hits" have been traded in other organizations, the 2018 draft is a great representation of why homegrown talent is not the only indicator of a successful draft. With Madrigal's injury, Heuer's struggles, and Walker and Pilkington being 1-2 years away from contributing, the Sox were not going to be able to capitalize there draft in year 1 of the title window. Kimbrel, Hernandez, and 1/2 of Lynn was a solid haul for a draft class.

I think the 2018 draft class will be one of the more talked about classes on the board for years. If Lynn were a disaster or refused to re-sign, Walker and Dunning would be a haul for a 1 year rental. That said, even the biggest prospect huggers on this board can support that trade. The trade to the Cubs changed the Madrigal discussion from whether he was the right pick, to whether he was too much for Kimbrel. If the Sox win in the next two years, that subject will be moot. If they dont and Madrigal becomes a 3-4 WAR guy on the north side, it may be a poor-mans Eloy-Cease for Quintana trade. Pilkington going to the Sox's biggest rival has a chance to be quite annoying, but turning your third round pick into 1.5 cheap years of an above average middle infielder is a huge haul.

Hahn was an excellent seller, but this is his first run as a buyer since the Shields trade. The talent recognition in the draft was excellent, but whether the internal evaluations on the players as prospects was correct will be answered over the next few years. As I've said, none of that matters if the Sox get a ring

 

[South Side Hit Men]

You have a lot of good things to say, and I agree with your takes on Madrigal and Pilkington.

Just want to point out Steele Walker was traded for Nomar Mazara. SoxTalk Legend Avery Weems and Dane Dunning were traded for Lance Lynn.

My take on what Stone said post trade was Madrigal is a solid player, but with a 4th overall pick, you would prefer someone with a much higher upside, and in the eyes of the Sox and Stone, Madrigal's ceiling is not as high as that pick should have rendered.

In the end, Madrigal got more of the initial press post-trade, but the Cubs received two solid players in return and Heuer may turn out to be the better of the two, unless Nick can find a way to consistently remain on the field. If I were a Cubs fan, I would be happy with the haul.

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[FriendlyNorthsider]

3 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

You have a lot of good things to say, and I agree with your takes on Madrigal and Pilkington.

Just want to point out Steele Walker was traded for Nomar Mazara. SoxTalk Legend Avery Weems and Dane Dunning were traded for Lance Lynn.

My take on what Stone said post trade was Madrigal is a solid player, but with a 4th overall pick, you would prefer someone with a much higher upside, and in the eyes of the Sox and Stone, Madrigal's ceiling is not as high as that pick should have rendered.

In the end, Madrigal got more of the initial press post-trade, but the Cubs received two solid players in return and Heuer may turn out to be the better of the two, unless Nick can find a way to consistently remain on the field. If I were a Cubs fan, I would be happy with the haul. I didn't see a rumored bigger return, and the Sox took on the remainder of Kimbrel's 2021 salary.

 

Good call on Steele Walker. I think when I realized he was in the organization, I just assumed it was this trade. Weems has a deceptive 4.94 ERA. In 58 innings he given up 48 hits (including 10 bombs!)  and walked 13 while striking out 79. Subtract his 3 inning 10 ER performance and he has a more palatable 3.58 ERA. That said he's a 24 year old in high A. No lost sleep on that part of the deal. 

Personally, I believe in pushing in chips would rather have the best two closers in baseball for two years instead of dealing with Madrigals hamstring while an equally capable Hernandez rides the bench. Windows are short. Go for it. As a Cubs fan, I love the idea of getting guy like Madrigal who is proven at the MLB level. The teenagers are fun to dream on, but at some point we need to win a major league baseball game. 

As a supporter of the Sox (and someone who wants to see TA7 win a ring badly), I LOVE this trade.  I'm not saying it may not blow up, but this is the exact opposite move you'd expect from this front office. Madrigal is a cost controlled second baseman that gave the Sox a cheap everyday option for the next half decade when you already have a ton of payroll committed. Trading him for Kimbrel (plus the 2021 money and player option) was a commitment to win a ring and to invest the money to do it. Let Madrigal sit next to Jed watching Arizona Fall League while Kimbrel is winning ball games

[he gone.]

The only other pick I was interested in that year was Kelenic and that was more so via the Wisconsin angle. I have a weird theory if you can be widely considered a top prospect by national scouts coming out of a cold spot like wisconsin, michigan, etc. that you're likely really, really talented. nothing to back this up. more of a hawkism in a way. FL, TX, Carolinas, etc seem to crank out ballplayers and to me, it's because they can play all year round. in the midwest you don't have that luxury. Had the same thoughts about Gavin Lux, though we'll see if he ever turns out. had a rough start to his career. 

India has been intersting ... he hadnt really done anything impressive up until this recent stretch.... now he's an OBP machine. 

For as much as the sox used to be awful at drafting they now really seem to hit at a nice clip. hope that continues as we have picks in the 20's rather than top 7 every year. will be important to add in young pieces that supplement as cheap bench options as our guys get older and more expensive. 

[CentralChamps21]

2 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

The only other pick I was interested in that year was Kelenic and that was more so via the Wisconsin angle. I have a weird theory if you can be widely considered a top prospect by national scouts coming out of a cold spot like wisconsin, michigan, etc. that you're likely really, really talented. nothing to back this up. more of a hawkism in a way. FL, TX, Carolinas, etc seem to crank out ballplayers and to me, it's because they can play all year round. in the midwest you don't have that luxury. Had the same thoughts about Gavin Lux, though we'll see if he ever turns out. had a rough start to his career.

That would be a fun data mining exercise--calculate the average WAR of first round draft picks by state.

[GradMc]

I'm not overly concerned with what the Sox have given up - although Nick was my favorite.

Their "saving grace" is only one player drafted since the unfortunate acquisition of the Sox by that Reinsdorf cabal has made it to Hall of Fame. 

The second may be Chris Sale but I doubt he'd go in donned in White Sox regalia.

The third will be FTJR if he remains healthy.
But that was an international signing, not a draft pick.

By the point of his HOF induction, FTJR won't even remember who signed him originally.

FTJR laughs at Sox management incompetence just like a certain QB in KC does with the Halas Hall management.

The Sox had no clue who they signed and let get away.

Now I would be concerned If Marco Paddy has/had anything to do with the players they trade.

Marko has more skill at talent recognition in his toenail than Hahn could ever imagine possessing. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by GradMc

[SoxAce]

Delgado was released FYI. So only Stiever stands alone in the top 6 rounds.

[Spumoni]

2 hours ago, GradMc said:

FTJR laughs at Sox management incompetence just like a certain QB in KC does with the Halas Hall management.

This isn't really a fair comparison, as Mahomes was a highly touted QB and we (as has been stated many times in the past) genuinely just didn't know what we had in Tatis - he was 17 when he was traded.  Easy to look back and Monday morning quarterback it but it just is what it is at this point.

Also on Mahomes - everyone forgets that if we hadn't picked Trubisky the most highly touted QB in that draft class was actually Deshaun Watson - we should be glad we at least dodged that bullet.

[Dominikk85]

I still think nick wasn't a bad pick. Some people say he lacked upside but many scouts thought he could maybe reach 12-15 Homer power and become a dustin pedroia type who hits 300 with 12 homers, good obp and solid defense which probably would have made him a 4 win player. 

I'm also OK with the Sox trading him, he seems like he will never develop any power and his defense and baserunning weren't as advanced as advertised. Also he already had two very serious season ending injuries in his two years (which might be a parallel to pedroia that you don't want). 

He Still can be solid for the cubs but if he hits 300 with 4 homers and average defense that is OK but a bit limited 

[SonofaRoache]

If only Steele Walker brought value back close to Lynn. But great analysis by you. 

[oldsox]

On 8/11/2021 at 6:09 PM, Spumoni said:

This isn't really a fair comparison, as Mahomes was a highly touted QB and we (as has been stated many times in the past) genuinely just didn't know what we had in Tatis - he was 17 when he was traded.  Easy to look back and Monday morning quarterback it but it just is what it is at this point.

Also on Mahomes - everyone forgets that if we hadn't picked Trubisky the most highly touted QB in that draft class was actually Deshaun Watson - we should be glad we at least dodged that bullet.

Wrong.

[hi8is]

12 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

, he seems like he will never develop any power 

I think Nick is going to surprise a lot of people.