Perspective

[soxfaninfl]

Been following game threads for a very long time and thought maybe we should put these games of late into some perspective.

On August 2, 2005, Sox fans woke up to a 69-36 record and a whopping 15 game lead. By Sept. 23, that lead shrunk to a game and a half with a record of 91-61. The Sox finished the season winning 8 of their last 10 and the postseason was well, fantastic.

Two points: One, do not get overly comfortable thinking the Central is decided even though this year's version of the Indians is probably not near as good as the 2005 team. The 2005 Indians won 93 games and I think it is a stretch that they will win even 90 games this year. 

Secondly, however, and more importantly, like all sports, how the team plays in September and beyond is so much more important than these games in August. I don't agree with Tony's decisions all the time but I do think he knows what lies ahead. We have a luxury no one else in our league has right now, especially the teams we have been playing the past couple of weeks. We have time to settle our bullpen, get Kimbrel accustom to his new role, get players rested and ready because we do have a September and probably an October this year. I would like to win more games too and have been frustrated with some of the results lately but I also believe this team may just be a different beast come Sept. 23. Every other team in the league would love to be in our position.

[hi8is]

For the Indians to match their 2005 record they’ll have to lose no more than 8 games for the rest of the year. ??

[NWINFan]

1 hour ago, hi8is said:

For the Indians to match their 2005 record they’ll have to lose no more than 8 games for the rest of the year. ??

Realistically speaking, the Indians don't appear to be a threat. It took them until late August just to get back to .500.  This team just doesn't have the talent level of the 2005 club. They would really have to turn things on. But if they can stay somewhat close, there are those five games against the Sox in late September.

However, I also don't think we can compare this Sox team to the 2005 club. Just because that team won doesn't mean this one will. There was just something special about the 2005 season.

For the most part, the Sox are a well-rested team. There are some off days coming up. The best lineup should be put every day until the division is clinched. I don't even like the appearance of the team thinking this thing is won before it is. I am not saying players are thinking that. I am just hoping they're not.

The main thing for the Sox is not to let this bad stretch get into their heads. Tim will return to the lineup and so will Grandal. They still have a good starting staff. The division is theirs to win. Just go out and do it. But until they actually do, I worry. When they clinch, I'll celebrate.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, hi8is said:

For the Indians to match their 2005 record they’ll have to lose no more than 8 games for the rest of the year. ??

For the White Sox to match their 2005 record they will have to lose no more than 9 games the rest of the year. 

[Texsox]

The true perspective is that To really enjoy a team you have to analyze everything that is wrong with it. Not just today but the future and the past. Rooting out every flaw brings joy and happiness. The ultimate experience is finding something horribly wrong that other fans haven’t figured out yet. Folks that just go to games and cheer and don’t know all the problems never have as much fun as fans who already know how bad the 2024 line up will be. 

[South Side Hit Men]

People keep comparing 2005 to 2021.

I was confident by May 2005 the Sox had a serious shot at the World Series. I do not have the same confidence this season. Here are the primary differences as I (and I believe many others) see them between the two teams:

1. Health: The 2005 lineup and starting staff was healthy all year. AJ played 128 games, the least among the nine starters. Half of the 2021 Sox lineup will be fortunate to reach 128 games this season, with starters Grandal and Engel likely having lingering issues and availability concerns through the playoffs. 
2. Tested vs. Untested: The 2005 was a solid experienced team. A 30 year old second baseman was their "rookie". The 2021 team has three untested key rookie starters, one learning multiple positions on the fly and two with under 100 games over 2 seasons due to various injuries.
3. Manager: Ozzie managed the starting staff well, and more often than not pushed the right buttons when managing the bullpen, comfortable changing closers on the fly. Ozzie was familiar with the team, he and Kenny made moves in the offseason to address holes, they were ready to play. Tony does not have a handle on when his pitchers are gassed, prefers a push button approach and also did not have two key contributors capped in terms of usage.
4. COVID: Beyond Tony, the current team is coming off of the 102 game owner lockout from last season, and unlike 2005, we just don't know how the starters, especially Rodon and Cease, will hold up with the substantial increase in year over year innings.
5. Competition/ Home Field: In 2005, I didn't see any team the Sox' equal heading into the playoffs. In 2021, series vs. Tampa, Houston and New York seem to most as coin flips the Sox can win, but are not necessarily favored to win. There also appears to be a good chance the Sox will be going through all three rounds on the road, whereas the Sox had home field advantage throughout 2005. The NL has the Dodgers and other teams who are playing much stronger than the 2005 Astros if the Sox reach the World Series.

• Can the Sox overcome these burdens / difficulties? Yes.
• Are they facing a greater challenge than the 2005 team heading into the playoffs? Yes.
• Do many people feel the consistent mistakes, poor close game management (Tony is 12-20 in one run games, Ozzie was 35-19 in 2005), Tony's obsession over platooning (hitting and pitching), sloppy baseball fundamentals under Tony La Russa (Tony's sloppy team is 25th in errors, Ozzie's team was 9th) , and poor bullpen management (Tony's team is 21st in blown saves (9 from bottom), Ozzie's team was tied for 11th despite having 3 closers) are likely to cost the Sox in October? Yes.

The Sox not only have to overcome solid playoff opponents but also their substandard manager, and substantial injuries. Despite going "all in" except for the manager position (AJ Hinch is having a great season in Detroit), there are many legitimate question marks heading into the postseason. This is the reason many fans have expressed legitimate concerns this year, regarding the substantial obstacles this team is facing vs. the 2005 team.

Edited August 24, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[CentralChamps21]

I think the reality is that this team overachieved in the first half. Guys who really aren't even close to good and a couple prospects who really aren't ready yet had hot streaks at the right time: Mercedes, Goodwin, Lamb, Hamilton, Sheets, Burger. They masked what the lineup is really like when down 2-3 of its stars, which is what we're seeing now.

I also think that in a weird way, despite Eloy and Robert being better hitters than Grandal and TA, the lineup suffers more without the latter pair.

[Jerksticks]

26 minutes ago, Texsox said:

The true perspective is that To really enjoy a team you have to analyze everything that is wrong with it. Not just today but the future and the past. Rooting out every flaw brings joy and happiness. The ultimate experience is finding something horribly wrong that other fans haven’t figured out yet. Folks that just go to games and cheer and don’t know all the problems never have as much fun as fans who already know how bad the 2024 line up will be. 

Lol.  Ladies and gentleman we have here a Superpost!

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

The true perspective is that To really enjoy a team you have to analyze everything that is wrong with it. Not just today but the future and the past. Rooting out every flaw brings joy and happiness. The ultimate experience is finding something horribly wrong that other fans haven’t figured out yet. Folks that just go to games and cheer and don’t know all the problems never have as much fun as fans who already know how bad the 2024 line up will be. 

How am I going to show everyone how much I think I know about baseball if I don't attempt to over analyze every insignificant play in a game?

[Buehrle>Wood]

The AL Central division is beyond over. Accept that and move on.

[soxfaninfl]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

People keep comparing 2005 to 2021.

I was confident by May 2005 the Sox had a serious shot at the World Series. I do not have the same confidence this season. Here are the primary differences as I (and I believe many others) see them between the two teams:

1. Health: The 2005 lineup and starting staff was healthy all year. AJ played 128 games, the least among the nine starters. Half of the 2021 Sox lineup will be fortunate to reach 128 games this season, with starters Grandal and Engel likely having lingering issues and availability concerns through the playoffs. 
2. Tested vs. Untested: The 2005 was a solid experienced team. A 30 year old second baseman was their "rookie". The 2021 team has three untested key rookie starters, one learning multiple positions on the fly and two with under 100 games over 2 seasons due to various injuries.
3. Manager: Ozzie managed the starting staff well, and more often than not pushed the right buttons when managing the bullpen, comfortable changing closers on the fly. Ozzie was familiar with the team, he and Kenny made moves in the offseason to address holes, they were ready to play. Tony does not have a handle on when his pitchers are gassed, prefers a push button approach and also did not have two key contributors capped in terms of usage.
4. COVID: Beyond Tony, the current team is coming off of the 102 game owner lockout from last season, and unlike 2005, we just don't know how the starters, especially Rodon and Cease, will hold up with the substantial increase in year over year innings.
5. Competition/ Home Field: In 2005, I didn't see any team the Sox' equal heading into the playoffs. In 2021, series vs. Tampa, Houston and New York seem to most as coin flips the Sox can win, but are not necessarily favored to win. There also appears to be a good chance the Sox will be going through all three rounds on the road, whereas the Sox had home field advantage throughout 2005. The NL has the Dodgers and other teams who are playing much stronger than the 2005 Astros if the Sox reach the World Series.

• Can the Sox overcome these burdens / difficulties? Yes.
• Are they facing a greater challenge than the 2005 team heading into the playoffs? Yes.
• Do many people feel the consistent mistakes, poor close game management (Tony is 12-20 in one run games, Ozzie was 35-19 in 2005), Tony's obsession over platooning (hitting and pitching), sloppy baseball fundamentals under Tony La Russa (Tony's sloppy team is 25th in errors, Ozzie's team was 9th) , and poor bullpen management (Tony's team is 21st in blown saves (9 from bottom), Ozzie's team was tied for 11th despite having 3 closers) are likely to cost the Sox in October? Yes.

The Sox not only have to overcome solid playoff opponents but also their substandard manager, and substantial injuries. Despite going "all in" except for the manager position (AJ Hinch is having a great season in Detroit), there are many legitimate question marks heading into the postseason. This is the reason many fans have expressed legitimate concerns this year, regarding the substantial obstacles this team is facing vs. the 2005 team.

I don’t necessarily disagree with you. But I wasn’t comparing the teams. The landscape could look a lot different a month from now and what matters most is not how the Sox play now but then. I just know I feel about the same now as I did in September 2005. We have a chance but can we really beat (that team) when it matters?

and you didn’t wake up a September morning in 2005 and think the Sox were going to blow a 15-game lead? Honestly, the thought crossed my mind more than I care to admit.

[Dominikk85]

The indians are barely a 500 team after the trades they made. Even if the Sox would struggle and only play 500 the rest of the way they still win the division. 

 

Obviously you don't want that but the division is very bad after the Sox. 

[South Side Hit Men]

35 minutes ago, soxfaninfl said:

I don’t necessarily disagree with you. But I wasn’t comparing the teams. The landscape could look a lot different a month from now and what matters most is not how the Sox play now but then. I just know I feel about the same now as I did in September 2005. We have a chance but can we really beat (that team) when it matters?

and you didn’t wake up a September morning in 2005 and think the Sox were going to blow a 15-game lead? Honestly, the thought crossed my mind more than I care to admit.

No, we were laughing at the "Dark Clouds" on WSI. 

The ball landed a few rows away from me at the game Joe Crede won it in extras when Cleveland brought it to 2 1/2 back during the final homestand of the season. Just felt that it was a team of destiny. Was fortunate to go to a few dozen games that season, including the Division clincher in Detroit.

I  didn't wager everything I owned on the team, and I'm not saying I thought they were a lock to win it all, but was confident they had a solid shot at winning it all and did plop down a few grand for full 2006 tickets to lock in 2005 World Series tickets.

Ha, I just saw they reopened WSI, Nothing going on there but the rent. They destroyed the board over there with their ridiculous moderators. I enjoyed the historical White Sox pieces posted by former member here (Lipman) and others on the other side of the site that is now gone (Flying sox).

Edited August 24, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Snopek]

I can't believe there's still over a month left of the regular season. Dog days indeed.

[reiks12]

We had a chance with our easy schedule and returning stars to compete for a top seed. Now its looking more and more likely that we will be on the road to start every playoff series. 

road record: 30-31

record @ Houston: 0-4

record @ NYY: 0-3

record @ Tampa: 1-2

record @ Boston: 2-2

record @ Oakland: 0-0

record vs teams over .500: 27-32

The silver lining is we now have Eloy and Robert in the lineup with Grandal and Engel returning. Hopefully the bullpen figures it out and we stay healthy from here on out.

[IWokeUpLikeThis]

This team will win the World Series. I have never wavered on that. Tony and Jerry will be the final parade car arriving at Wacker and LaSalle to a hurricane of confetti. 

[ThirdGen]

The 2005 Indians played over .700 ball for two consecutive months to close the gap.  They have neither the time nor the talent to go on a run like that in 2021.

[Tony]

On 7/29/2021 at 1:49 PM, Tony said:

August is a tough schedule and people are going to absolutely meltdown around here when they lose games to good teams. 

July 29, 2021

[Jerksticks]

I really think this message board should be some form of test to weed out the candidates for President.  Like before you qualify for the debates you must pass the Soxtalk pressure cooker:
 

Are you cool under pressure?

Are you able to focus on the macro even when the micro is impossibly challenging?

Do you blame people when times get tough?

Are you a psychotic homicidal nervous guy?

 

Not many would survive such a gauntlet

[RG23SoxFan]

9 hours ago, soxfaninfl said:

Been following game threads for a very long time and thought maybe we should put these games of late into some perspective.

On August 2, 2005, Sox fans woke up to a 69-36 record and a whopping 15 game lead. By Sept. 23, that lead shrunk to a game and a half with a record of 91-61. The Sox finished the season winning 8 of their last 10 and the postseason was well, fantastic.

Two points: One, do not get overly comfortable thinking the Central is decided even though this year's version of the Indians is probably not near as good as the 2005 team. The 2005 Indians won 93 games and I think it is a stretch that they will win even 90 games this year. 

Secondly, however, and more importantly, like all sports, how the team plays in September and beyond is so much more important than these games in August. I don't agree with Tony's decisions all the time but I do think he knows what lies ahead. We have a luxury no one else in our league has right now, especially the teams we have been playing the past couple of weeks. We have time to settle our bullpen, get Kimbrel accustom to his new role, get players rested and ready because we do have a September and probably an October this year. I would like to win more games too and have been frustrated with some of the results lately but I also believe this team may just be a different beast come Sept. 23. Every other team in the league would love to be in our position.

To win 90 games Cleveland would need to go 29-11 the rest of the way.  Where is the betting window for betting on under 90 wins for Cleveland lol?

[Kyyle23]

[Bossanoveralls]

5 hours ago, Texsox said:

The true perspective is that To really enjoy a team you have to analyze everything that is wrong with it. Not just today but the future and the past. Rooting out every flaw brings joy and happiness. The ultimate experience is finding something horribly wrong that other fans haven’t figured out yet. Folks that just go to games and cheer and don’t know all the problems never have as much fun as fans who already know how bad the 2024 line up will be. 

Outstanding post.

[Greg Hibbard]

I could see the Indians winning as many as 84-86 games and the Sox finishing with as few as 89-90. It would be closer than people like to believe it will be, and it will certainly make people sweat. That being said, it will never get to the point of the Sox winning as few as 88 and the Indians winning as many as 88. For the Sox to win only 88 they'd have to go 16-20 in their last 36, and for the Indians to win 88, they'd have to go 27-13 down the stretch, a .675 clip. It's just not realistic given the talent of both teams respectively and the remaining schedules. The division is indeed over.

[VAfan]

Quote

Do many people feel the consistent mistakes, poor close game management (Tony is 12-20 in one run games, Ozzie was 35-19 in 2005), Tony's obsession over platooning (hitting and pitching), sloppy baseball fundamentals under Tony La Russa (Tony's sloppy team is 25th in errors, Ozzie's team was 9th) , and poor bullpen management (Tony's team is 21st in blown saves (9 from bottom), Ozzie's team was tied for 11th despite having 3 closers) are likely to cost the Sox in October? Yes.

I don't see how you can blame Tony LaRussa for a lot of the things you blame him for. 

Why were the 2005 Sox so good in 1-run games?  You said it above -- they were a veteran team.  They had top of the line starting staff, and the bullpen didn't blow leads.  

Why are the current Sox sloppy?  Again, they have several rookies, and guys playing out of position.  Their current main backup catcher has 2 passed balls a night.  The 2005 Sox had Crede and Uribe and Iguchi.  (BTW - the Cesar Hernandez throw to third last night reminded me of one Iguchi turned in the 2005 playoffs.)

Is it poor bullpen management, or a bunch of relievers who are not reliable?  Did Tony LaRussa ruin Jason Kimbrell, or is he just not pitching as well as he was earlier in the year?  Did Tony cause Hendriks to tip his pitches against the Yankees?  Is Tony the reason Bummer goes through stretches where he can't throw strikes?  

Tony uses his whole roster, and it has been to very good effect for the most part.  Is that an "obsession" over platooning?  

********

Having said this, I would agree with the premise that the 2021 Sox have a much bigger hill to climb than the 2005 Sox.  The 2005 Sox went wire to wire, had the best record in baseball, and were the best team in baseball.  The 2021 White Sox can beat anyone if they are on their game, but they could also lose to anyone else in the playoffs if they aren't.  

[RG23SoxFan]

32 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I could see the Indians winning as many as 84-86 games and the Sox finishing with as few as 89-90. It would be closer than people like to believe it will be, and it will certainly make people sweat. That being said, it will never get to the point of the Sox winning as few as 88 and the Indians winning as many as 88. For the Sox to win only 88 they'd have to go 16-20 in their last 36, and for the Indians to win 88, they'd have to go 27-13 down the stretch, a .675 clip. It's just not realistic given the talent of both teams respectively and the remaining schedules. The division is indeed over.

I agree the division is over, but what makes you think the Indians could win 84-86 games? They have played 120+ games and sit at .500 and to win 85 they would need to go 24-16.  I haven't really seen anything from them that they will play .600 baseball in their last 40 games.  Fangraphs has a projected win total for them at 79 which seems more likely to me.