A far too early look at playoff pitching questions

[VAfan]

After last night's bullpen meltdown, the second one in 3 days for the Sox in Toronto, I started thinking about what the Sox might do to line up their pitching for the postseason.  

But let me first start with some caveats.

• The Sox aren't in the playoffs yet, even if the odds are overwhelming that they will get there.
• We don't know the seeding, or the matchup if/when we get there.
• We don't know the health of our pitchers at the time of the playoffs.

Assuming all the pitchers are healthy, what are the issues?

1. Starting rotation

The first issue is how to you line up the starters?  Who goes 1-3, and who pitches 4 if/when you need a 4th?  I think this is how I would line them up.

• Lance Lynn.  Has lowest ERA.  Been the most consistent.  A workhorse.  He may not be the one most likely to pitch a shutout if the opponent shuts down the Sox lineup, but Giolito has lost this role and Rodon is inexperienced.
• Carlos Rodon.  If rested, he's the most likely to pitch a shutout.  Good contrast to Lynn.  
• Lucas Giolito.  Was shaky early in the year, but seems to have found his groove the last couple games against the Rays and Jays.  
• Dylan Cease.  If the Sox don't win home field in the first round, but get to a 4th game, it would be at home, where Cease has been at his best.  It would be nerve wracking to say the least if this was a do or die game, but Cease has much better stuff than Keuchel.  

2.  Most reliable bullpen arms

The problem is that this cupboard is completely bare at the moment.  The White Sox currently have ZERO reliable bullpen arms for a big game.  EVERY pitcher in the bullpen has blown multiple opportunities this year.  Some fans blame TLR for this, but the problem is with the pitchers themselves.  Lack of control, especially of pitches they hope to get batters to swing at out of the zone, has been a problem.  

The Nationals won the World Series in a year when they had great starters, but a bullpen that was worse than what the Sox have.  So their manager shortened the postseason group.  He used Corbin, his third starter, in relief multiple times.  He only used 3-4 other arms out of the pen.  And his starters - Scherzer and Strassburg -- were  horses who could work deep into games. 

For the Sox, despite the problems, here's how I would rank them.

• Hendriks.  Has to be the closer, but doesn't have to close every game.  He might need to be used for a 4-5 out save and not be available the next day. 
• Kimbrel.  Needs to get fixed in September.  Sox need him as a reliable closer #2 and lockdown 8th inning guy.
• Kopech.  Has the best stuff.  I hope he can elevate his game in higher pressure situations.  Field of Dreams game was a good example.
• Crochet.  Has to be the prime lefty.  Bummer is just too unreliable.
• Tepera.  I forgot about him in my initial draft.  He might actually be the one guy who hasn't blown games yet. 

That may be all you need.  If you went with a 6th guy ...

• Lopez?  He would be my long man at this point.  He might have even been the 4th starter, but I think that bubble was burst his last start. 

Guys I wouldn't trust right now.

• Bummer.  Maybe the most disappointing pitcher for the Sox.  He has great stuff, but he can't control it and the league knows it.  Batters only have to wait him out to draw walks, or to get behind and then groove a hittable pitch over the plate.  If I were TLR, I would start using him a LOT with the idea that he needs steady use to get the feel of his pitches so he can control them.  This would be my project over September.

Everyone else could be left off the playoff roster.

• Keuchel.  I'm sure the Sox will keep him on the roster, but to what purpose?  Can he pitch effectively out of the bullpen?  Can he be relied on to start?  He often does pretty well the first one or two times through the lineup, but the other day he was shelled in the first inning.  He seems like too much of a risk.  Yet if he WERE on, he offers a huge contrast to the Sox' power arms and it could be very disruptive to an opponent's timing. 
• Rios.  
• Burr.
• Foster.
• Marshall (if/when he returns)
• Anyone else I'm forgetting. 

So that's my current take.  Rotation of Lynn, Rodon, Giolito and Cease.  Bullpen of Hendriks, Kimbrel, Kopech and Crochet, and Tepera, with Lopez as my 6th guy.  The Sox could carry Bummer and Keuchel, but I likely wouldn't use them.   I'd rather go long on position players than pitchers.  

 

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by VAfan

[IWokeUpLikeThis]

I'd expect 13 pitchers (since they keep carrying more than we expect).

I feel like the 13 pitchers are pretty clear-cut (though they might give Ruiz's or Lopez's spot to Marshall because he's a veteran). 

SP Lynn
SP Rodon
SP Giolito
SP Cease

CL Hendriks
SU Kimbrel

RP Kopech
RP Tepera

LH Crochet
LH Keuchel
LH Bummer

LR Lopez

MU Ruiz

[CentralChamps21]

Just now, IWokeUpLikeThis said:

I'd expect 13 pitchers (since they keep carrying more than we expect).

I feel like the 13 pitchers are pretty clear-cut (though they might give Ruiz's or Lopez's spot to Marshall because he's a veteran). 

SP Lynn
SP Rodon
SP Giolito
SP Cease

CL Hendriks
SU Kimbrel

RP Kopech
RP Tepera

LH Crochet
LH Keuchel
LH Bummer

LR Lopez

MU Ruiz

Since you never have to play more than 3 days in a row in the postseason, I really think they go with 12 pitchers so they can keep someone like Hamilton. I have the same list as you minus Ruiz.

[Bob Sacamano]

I’d be ok leaving Keuchel off the roster. Fine back of the rotation arm but we only need 4 starters.

I go back and forth on this and think Cease coming out of the pen every game (so many day offs built into playoffs that it is possible) with his stuff could be fun.

Edited August 26, 2021 by manbearpuig

[Quin]

14 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

I’d be ok leaving Keuchel off the roster. Fine back of the rotation arm but we only need 4 starters.

I go back and forth on this and think Cease coming out of the pen every game (so many day offs built into playoffs that it is possible) with his stuff could be fun.

I can't see them leaving the lefty that can log a good amount of innings with World Series experience off the roster to keep Ruiz.

[joejoesox]

they aren't leaving Keuchel off the playoff roster, as much as it would probably be beneficial to the team... there's zero chance of it, come on guys

[Balta1701]

52 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

they aren't leaving Keuchel off the playoff roster, as much as it would probably be beneficial to the team... there's zero chance of it, come on guys

LHP with a high ground ball rate and who is difficult to run on? I can very much think of ways that could be useful in a postseason bullpen.

[joejoesox]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

LHP with a high ground ball rate and who is difficult to run on? I can very much think of ways that could be useful in a postseason bullpen.

getting lit up by the best teams in baseball isn't useful unless you're the opponent

[Balta1701]

Just now, joesaiditstrue said:

getting lit up by the best teams in baseball isn't useful unless you're the opponent

Exactly why we don't have any real need for Ruiz, Burr, or Foster.

[wegner]

At this point, Tepera seems to be our most reliable arm out of the pen and I can't believe I just typed that.

[ShoeLessRob]

0BF22B90-7B1C-4E3D-AF0A-7BFC2EDD6A57.webp

[Colome's Hat]

22 minutes ago, VAfan said:

After last night's bullpen meltdown, the second one in 3 days for the Sox in Toronto, I started thinking about what the Sox might do to line up their pitching for the postseason.  

But let me first start with some caveats.

• The Sox aren't in the playoffs yet, even if the odds are overwhelming that they will get there.
• We don't know the seeding, or the matchup if/when we get there.
• We don't know the health of our pitchers at the time of the playoffs.

Assuming all the pitchers are healthy, what are the issues?

1. Starting rotation

The first issue is how to you line up the starters?  Who goes 1-3, and who pitches 4 if/when you need a 4th?  I think this is how I would line them up.

• Lance Lynn.  Has lowest ERA.  Been the most consistent.  A workhorse.  He may not be the one most likely to pitch a shutout if the opponent shuts down the Sox lineup, but Giolito has lost this role and Rodon is inexperienced.
• Carlos Rodon.  If rested, he's the most likely to pitch a shutout.  Good contrast to Lynn.  
• Lucas Giolito.  Was shaky early in the year, but seems to have found his groove the last couple games against the Rays and Jays.  
• Dylan Cease.  If the Sox don't win home field in the first round, but get to a 4th game, it would be at home, where Cease has been at his best.  It would be nerve wracking to say the least if this was a do or die game, but Cease has much better stuff than Keuchel.  

2.  Most reliable bullpen arms

The problem is that this cupboard is completely bare at the moment.  The White Sox currently have ZERO reliable bullpen arms for a big game.  EVERY pitcher in the bullpen has blown multiple opportunities this year.  Some fans blame TLR for this, but the problem is with the pitchers themselves.  Lack of control, especially of pitches they hope to get batters to swing at out of the zone, has been a problem.  

The Nationals won the World Series in a year when they had great starters, but a bullpen that was worse than what the Sox have.  So their manager shortened the postseason group.  He used Corbin, his third starter, in relief multiple times.  He only used 3-4 other arms out of the pen.  And his starters - Scherzer and Strassburg -- were  horses who could work deep into games. 

For the Sox, despite the problems, here's how I would rank them.

• Hendriks.  Has to be the closer, but doesn't have to close every game.  He might need to be used for a 4-5 out save and not be available the next day. 
• Kimbrel.  Needs to get fixed in September.  Sox need him as a reliable closer #2 and lockdown 8th inning guy.
• Kopech.  Has the best stuff.  I hope he can elevate his game in higher pressure situations.  Field of Dreams game was a good example.
• Crochet.  Has to be the prime lefty.  Bummer is just too unreliable.

That may be all you need.  If you went with a 5th guy ...

• Lopez?  He would be my long man at this point.  He might have even been the 4th starter, but I think that bubble was burst his last start. 

Guys I wouldn't trust right now.

• Bummer.  Maybe the most disappointing pitcher for the Sox.  He has great stuff, but he can't control it and the league knows it.  Batters only have to wait him out to draw walks, or to get behind and then groove a hittable pitch over the plate.  If I were TLR, I would start using him a LOT with the idea that he needs steady use to get the feel of his pitches so he can control them.  This would be my project over September.

Everyone else could be left off the playoff roster.

• Keuchel.  I'm sure the Sox will keep him on the roster, but to what purpose?  Can he pitch effectively out of the bullpen?  Can he be relied on to start?  He often does pretty well the first one or two times through the lineup, but the other day he was shelled in the first inning.  He seems like too much of a risk.  Yet if he WERE on, he offers a huge contrast to the Sox' power arms and it could be very disruptive to an opponent's timing. 
• Rios.  
• Burr.
• Foster.
• Marshall (if/when he returns)
• Anyone else I'm forgetting. 

So that's my current take.  Rotation of Lynn, Rodon, Giolito and Cease.  Bullpen of Hendriks, Kimbrel, Kopech and Crochet, with Lopez as my 5th guy.  The Sox could carry Bummer and Keuchel, but I likely wouldn't use them.   I'd rather go long on position players than pitchers.  

 

 

Right now after Kimbrel and Hendriks, Tepara is the best reliever in the Sox bullpen.

 

I would go like this right now in a 3 game

Starting Rotation:

1.  Lynn (unless against the Astros in Houston)

2. Rodon

3. Giolito (Would flip Lynn and Gio against the Astros if Houston has home field advantage)

4. Cease/Keuchel - Right now, if Cease continues to pitch as well as he has and with how well Tepara has pitched out of the bullpen, I don't think there is any way you can really justify leaving him out of the rotation.  But I do think I would give Keuchel a chance in September to right the ship.  I do like the idea of Keuchel in a LCS as an opener for three innings and having Cease come in.

 

Bullpen:

CL: Hendriks

CL/SU: Kimbrel

RHP: Tepara

RHP: Kopech

LHP: Bummer

LHP: Crochet

LHP: Keuchel?

LR: Lopez

MU: Ruiz

 

Right now though and was listening to the White Sox Talk Podcast, there is a very good argument about leaving Keuchel off the roster in the LDS but bringing him back on the roster in the LCS.  He's much more valuable in a longer series and would probably be better starting in a longer series than in a short series.