2021 NFL Season Thread

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Even if they got an extra 10 yards, it would have been well worth the 4 or 5 or 6 seconds on the clock. They would have had 1 play and a Hail Mary in all lilelyhood. 

With a squib kick you're giving up a ton of field position. Most teams will have a guy go after it 10-20 yds from the kick. 

Had the Bills squib kicked the Chiefs would have only needed one play to get into FG range anyway. They had 3 TOs. I think the choice that was made by the Bills was the correct decision. The issue was that Frazier played soft coverage. You can't do that with 3 TOs. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

With a squib kick you're giving up a ton of field position. Most teams will have a guy go after it 10-20 yds from the kick. 

Had the Bills squib kicked the Chiefs would have only needed one play to get into FG range anyway. They had 3 TOs. I think the choice that was made by the Bills was the correct decision. The issue was that Frazier played soft coverage. You can't do that with 3 TOs. 

It doesn't matter. There was 13 seconds left. If they have the ball on the 35 with 8 or 9 seconds left, best case scenerio, they have to get into FG range the next play or they have to throw a Hail Mary. They would have had to gain 25 yards for a 57 yd attenpt. The way that defense was getting carved up, I'd take my chances on the return team than Mahomes. Hell, kick it to the 5 yard line, make them return it.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

It doesn't matter. There was 13 seconds left. If they have the ball on the 35 with 8 or 9 seconds left, best case scenerio, they have to get into FG range the next play or they have to throw a Hail Mary. They would have had to gain 25 yards for a 57 yd attenpt. The way that defense was getting carved up, I'd take my chances on the return team than Mahomes. Hell, kick it to the 5 yard line, make them return it.

If they squib kick, they need 25 yds for like a 48 yd attempt and they can use the whole field to get it. A pooch kick that lands at the 10-15 yd line would probably have been a better option. I disagree with squib kicking......ever. 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

If they squib kick, they need 25 yds for like a 48 yd attempt and they can use the whole field to get it. A pooch kick that lands at the 10-15 yd line would probably have been a better option. I disagree with squib kicking......ever. 

Either way, If your defense can't keep them out of FG range with 13 seconds left, a loss is what is deserved.

[Chisoxfn]

33 minutes ago, bmags said:

One thing I'll be watching is if Bears can grab back Pep Hamilton as QB coach now that Culley is gone with whomever takes over. He has done some incredibly strong work recently in that role with Herbert and Davis Mills.

This. 

[Chisoxfn]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Counter argument to squib kick: Bears/Falcons, 2008. The Bears scored to go up by one point with 19 seconds left in the game. Falcons got the ball with 11 seconds left, threw one play for 25 yds,  kick field goal and win. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

I was at that game. I don't remember what happened but I thought the squib kick was more of the disaster too, so it was more than just that.  But it was bad...thankfully a regular season disaster vs. a playoff disaster.  I think a lot of it had to do with going against a rookie Matt Ryan so they just played the whole thing out crazy conservative and got bit.  I tried to forgot though

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Counter argument to squib kick: Bears/Falcons, 2008. The Bears scored to go up by one point with 19 seconds left in the game. Falcons got the ball with 11 seconds left, threw one play for 25 yds,  kick field goal and win. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

No matter what the squib kick needs to be executed correctly.  If it is they remove precious seconds from the clock and remove more possibilities to lose the game.  Chiefs had time for TWO throws of 19 and 25, if you remove time from the clock with a good squib then you can possibly remove one of those plays. 
 

It isn't damned if you do damned if you don't.   it's get the job done correctly and D up.  

[Tony]

So it sounds like they are 100% going to sign a coach before a GM. I don't even understand the logic, the counterargument to hiring a coach first. You're in the market for a GM (possibly president role if you believe DaBearsBlog and those guys) so you're looking for someone to come in and make decisions...but before you make that hire, you're going to hire a HC based on the process led by a 79-year old that has 0 ties to the Bears after this?

Why? 

[bmags]

So it doesn't sound like they are 100% going to sign a coach before a GM

[bmags]

Also I'm with Jack here - there is an assumption that squib kick just ends up with them at the 25 to 30 with time ran off. But the Chiefs could throw Hill and Hardiman back there - two incredible returners - who could end up much deeper or worse. You can say they just need to execute the squib kick, but you can also say they just need to execute by not giving up 40 yards in two plays.

I probably would have squibbed, but I've had squib kicks backfire on my teams I follow a lot enough where I've definitely said "JUST KICK IT STRAIGHT"

[Kyyle23]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Also I'm with Jack here - there is an assumption that squib kick just ends up with them at the 25 to 30 with time ran off. But the Chiefs could throw Hill and Hardiman back there - two incredible returners - who could end up much deeper or worse. You can say they just need to execute the squib kick, but you can also say they just need to execute by not giving up 40 yards in two plays.

I probably would have squibbed, but I've had squib kicks backfire on my teams I follow a lot enough where I've definitely said "JUST KICK IT STRAIGHT"

Were hill and hardman back to return?

[Dick Allen]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

Also I'm with Jack here - there is an assumption that squib kick just ends up with them at the 25 to 30 with time ran off. But the Chiefs could throw Hill and Hardiman back there - two incredible returners - who could end up much deeper or worse. You can say they just need to execute the squib kick, but you can also say they just need to execute by not giving up 40 yards in two plays.

I probably would have squibbed, but I've had squib kicks backfire on my teams I follow a lot enough where I've definitely said "JUST KICK IT STRAIGHT"

Jack's example took 8 seconds. So even if they got to the 40, they have 4 seconds to get in FG range. 4 seconds for a 20 yard play and they would have to make a real long FG. If it takes 5, the game is over.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Counter argument to squib kick: Bears/Falcons, 2008. The Bears scored to go up by one point with 19 seconds left in the game. Falcons got the ball with 11 seconds left, threw one play for 25 yds,  kick field goal and win. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

In the Dome or outside?  Massive difference with mid Jan weather conditions.

[caulfield12]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/281012001

That was 11 seconds remaining...and getting the kickoff just to the 44 was giving up way too much ground.

Most importantly, Elam and artificial turf with no wind, cold, snow and the ball would be ideal.

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Jack's example took 8 seconds. So even if they got to the 40, they have 4 seconds to get in FG range. 4 seconds for a 20 yard play and they would have to make a real long FG. If it takes 5, the game is over.

Wasn't there :17 seconds? They had two time outs, so if you get 9 seconds you definitely have time for a 25 yard pass plus time out. 

Basically nothing is guaranteed but 40 yards in 2 plays should be quite difficult, but for whatever reason they ran the defense Fangio would do when teams only needed the end zone. It was very bad.

Obviously 1 play for 25 should also be difficult. That play they executed to Kelce is just unbelievable, it's insane they wouldn't have guys at each level for him.

[StrangeSox]

It was 13 seconds

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Were hill and hardman back to return?

Actually no, but I guess pringle is even faster. Point is - it's a toub team, they are good. But I'd still have squibbed but it's really nuts that they had such an easy time on that second play after a time out.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't think I've seen anything indicating Bears are hiring a HC first. I'll wait and see how it plays out - but yes - if in fact Polian hand picks the 3 people the GM gets to pick - yeah - that wouldn't be so hot, but I just can't believe (I mean I guess I can - it is the Bears afterall) that after all their past mistakes they would think that is okay.  

I do think they have now interviewed all of the GM's and either know exactly who they are going to hire or one of 2 / 3 people it would be and likely know who those GM's have on their short list.  So they probably have a darn good idea and may also just know that the smart thing to do for those in hot demand that you think are on the short list is get em scheduled (you can always cancel - but if you don't schedule now - you might have a few of them take a gig where they would have otherwise waited).  

I still go back to - unless the HC they are hiring is on a playoff team - they will have made a decision by the end of this week.  I still think GM comes out as soon as tomorrow - although now seems more likely Wed/Thursday.  

[southsideirish71]

It would be so Bears to hire a near 70-year-old HC to develop a young team.  

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don't think I've seen anything indicating Bears are hiring a HC first. I'll wait and see how it plays out - but yes - if in fact Polian hand picks the 3 people the GM gets to pick - yeah - that wouldn't be so hot, but I just can't believe (I mean I guess I can - it is the Bears afterall) that after all their past mistakes they would think that is okay.  

I do think they have now interviewed all of the GM's and either know exactly who they are going to hire or one of 2 / 3 people it would be and likely know who those GM's have on their short list.  So they probably have a darn good idea and may also just know that the smart thing to do for those in hot demand that you think are on the short list is get em scheduled (you can always cancel - but if you don't schedule now - you might have a few of them take a gig where they would have otherwise waited).  

I still go back to - unless the HC they are hiring is on a playoff team - they will have made a decision by the end of this week.  I still think GM comes out as soon as tomorrow - although now seems more likely Wed/Thursday.  

I think the surprise/disappointment here is Daboll NOT being there. Either they know he's gone or their GM feedback outside Schoen hasn't been as high on him for some reason, probably the former.

For the interviews, I'd point out that like Eberflus, Quinn already has a second interview with Denver lined up. Caldwell does not have an official one, but is likely to get one from Jacksonville.

This is likely just ensuring the GM has the opportunity to interview these candidates by letting them know they are still interested and not to just take the jobs elsewhere.

And my expectation - that I will be surprised if is not the case - is that we will have Morocco brown, Khan (both interviewed today) with Poles as finalists, and Glen Cook as a possible 4th. I'd hope that these happen pretty soon and get them to interviewing these coaches before anyone but Eberflus is scheduled.

[Chisoxfn]

2 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

It would be so Bears to hire a near 70-year-old HC to develop a young team.  

Bruce Arians and others would probably counter that point.  But I do get it.  That said - Caldwell will get good assistants (I believe) and you might find a really really bright offensive mind who he's worked with in the past that could be groomed for the HC role.  Desai could be that guy on the defensive side - if they went that way, but he also could just turn the defense to someone like Fangio and than spend a lot of his time on offense. Bringing in someone like Pep Hamilton would be a great start. 

I think Eberus might be a pretty exciting guy on the defensive side of the ball and would think given some of the stops he has had, he too would have pretty good connections to build a staff. Odd thing is - this hiring cycle I have heard a lot less out of which coach has various "specialists" tied to there names vs. past cycles it seemed more common where you knew X or Y defensive guy had "paired up" with so and so as an OC (or vice versa).  

[Chisoxfn]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think the surprise/disappointment here is Daboll NOT being there. Either they know he's gone or their GM feedback outside Schoen hasn't been as high on him for some reason, probably the former.

For the interviews, I'd point out that like Eberflus, Quinn already has a second interview with Denver lined up. Caldwell does not have an official one, but is likely to get one from Jacksonville.

This is likely just ensuring the GM has the opportunity to interview these candidates by letting them know they are still interested and not to just take the jobs elsewhere.

And my expectation - that I will be surprised if is not the case - is that we will have Morocco brown, Khan (both interviewed today) with Poles as finalists, and Glen Cook as a possible 4th. I'd hope that these happen pretty soon and get them to interviewing these coaches before anyone but Eberflus is scheduled.

The hard part is - Bears have not been fully transparent on the GM's they have interviewed - so we are all speculating that they haven't had 2 convo's but they might have actually had 2 conversations with some of these and it just isn't being reported (hard to believe but quite possible). I agree with you - fact Daboll hasn't probably says enough.  It seems like Giants had long identified the two of them and I understand why the Bills GM took the Giants job (closer to his east coast routes + high picks to start completely from scratch).  

If I were Daboll - I would need to be pretty blown away if I had a really good relationship with former Bills Asst GM to take any other job given how important that "trust" factor is.  

I keep thinking how McCaskey had a lot of conversations with Rooney family and really think the two of them talked a lot about Kkanh and Rooney knows Khanh not being the person in Pitt but wants him to be that person somewhere else (and in the NFC better than another AFC team) so I still think Omar moving to the Bears is what I would bet on.  

[southsider2k5]

Hopefully this is a case of the Bears needing to interview candidates even without a GM in place, as the teams who are only looking for coaches could well steal the top guys while teams that need a GM first would by logic take longer to get those people in place before they could talk to coaches.

[Chisoxfn]

HC wise - I wonder if they land on Quinn.  I do think if it is Brown as the GM - we see Eferus hired, but I think if it is Poles/Khan - Quinn is my guess (as I'm resigned to fact it won't be Daboll/Harbaugh).  

[southsideirish71]

8 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

The hard part is - Bears have not been fully transparent on the GM's they have interviewed - so we are all speculating that they haven't had 2 convo's but they might have actually had 2 conversations with some of these and it just isn't being reported (hard to believe but quite possible). I agree with you - fact Daboll hasn't probably says enough.  It seems like Giants had long identified the two of them and I understand why the Bills GM took the Giants job (closer to his east coast routes + high picks to start completely from scratch).  

If I were Daboll - I would need to be pretty blown away if I had a really good relationship with former Bills Asst GM to take any other job given how important that "trust" factor is.  

How many of the candidates are outside of the "Polian" contact list.  We did this same song and dance with Ernie Acorsi before. If you are a friend of Polian, you are a finalist. Not having a GM has put us in a hole which could provide a scenario where all of the Tier 1 candidates are selected by other teams while we pick up Leslie Frazier because Georgie remembers him from when he was younger.  I am glad they are doing due diligence but at some point, I believe Polian was hired quite a bit back and should have been narrowing down the candidates well before this process started.  Its almost like they didn't know they were going to fire Pace until Sunday night.  This smells too much like JR picking a manager based on righting an earlier wrong.  Oh I remember you, you were on one of my staffs or know someone I knew.  

Edited January 24, 2022 by southsideirish71