In Defense of Leury

[MiddleCoastBias]

32 minutes ago, wegner said:

I just wonder if the Sox will want to go less expensive (maybe one of the reasons we see Romy up in September) with the utility role.  Let's get Leury a Ring this season just in case he is not back. 

Entirely too early prediction, but Romy's multi-position flexibility and power off the bench make him an excellent replacement for Leury (on paper) at a lower price tag. My guess is that the Sox see what they have in Romy this month and that will inform their decision whether they want to pay to bring Leury back next year.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am with you.  I'd love to do better.  But like....who?  

The guys I listed are going to be outside of the Sox budget.  Maybe Semien is still floating around in Jan/Feb and we can get him for like 2/$25M and then ship Cesar off somewhere else at that point?  

Otherwise you're looking at guys like Eduardo Escobar, Jurickson Profar, Miguel Rojas, etc.  I'd probably prefer Escobar to Cesar like I did in July (putting aside bad wheel) but its close. The others are worse than Cesar. I guess Chris Taylor could be an interesting fit and nice middle ground.  He's older and that should keep his price tag down a bit.  

Any of those guys would be plausible, and maybe available for Cesars money or less. But I’m not going to rule out a bigger name on a surprising contract with all the things we don’t know. A World Series loss to the Dodgers would generate a lot of revenue to work with. What will they do with Kimbrel’s deal? Can Lopez keep this up or do they need a 5th starter to open next year? What will the CBA look like and will that push more teams to spend on guys like the ones you listed? All I will guess is that Cesar isn’t currently earning that option.

[The Grinder]

I admit he's  no hall of famer but his versatility frees up at least one roster spot for a better hitter 

Edited September 2, 2021 by The Grinder

[Bob Sacamano]

21 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am with you.  I'd love to do better.  But like....who?  

The guys I listed are going to be outside of the Sox budget.  Maybe Semien is still floating around in Jan/Feb and we can get him for like 2/$25M and then ship Cesar off somewhere else at that point?  

Otherwise you're looking at guys like Eduardo Escobar, Jurickson Profar, Miguel Rojas, etc.  I'd probably prefer Escobar to Cesar like I did in July (putting aside bad wheel) but its close. The others are worse than Cesar. I guess Chris Taylor could be an interesting fit and nice middle ground.  He's older and that should keep his price tag down a bit.  

I think they decline his option but I wouldn’t rule out a return completely. They can probably bring Cesar back for cheaper if they want to wait it out. 
 

I’m down for an Escobar reunion though like you said.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, The Grinder said:

I admit hes no hall of famer but his versatility frees up at least one roster spot for a better hitter 

Um, 2 links included to AOL webmail?

[reiks12]

Leury is extremely valuable as a super sub, thats it. He gets exposed when he starts for a long period of time.

[ShoeLessRob]

I’d rather Leury be the permanent second baseman then pick up Cesars option. And I hate Leury getting more than 2-3 starts a week. 

[MackowiakYakYak]

19 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I’d rather Leury be the permanent second baseman then pick up Cesars option. And I hate Leury getting more than 2-3 starts a week. 

Cesar has been at his worst with the Sox but he’s normally a solid starter. I want both and give Leury some starts at 2B when he’s hotter than Cesar. Spend the money elsewhere

[ShoeLessRob]

Cesar has a .09 WAR compared to Leury’s 1.5. That’s pathetic. 

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Cesar has a .09 WAR compared to Leury’s 1.5. That’s pathetic. 

Did you just compare what one player did in 1 month to what another player has done in 5 months?

[SpringfieldFan]

I've said it before. Championship teams need a guy like Leury available to sub off their bench. Losing teams need a guy like Leury as an everyday starter.

[ShoeLessRob]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Did you just compare what one player did in 1 month to what another player has done in 5 months?

I was looking at the wrong stat, he’s still at 1.7 - 1.9 for the year if I’m looking at the right stats. They are both nothing more than utility players

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

This - so many people complain but the dude is such an asset off the bench. Just so versatile and he is solid - despite what most on here think. And I can’t blame him for getting too much play due to injuries and other factors. 

he has a 2.4 fWAR in 581 career games and 2000 AB's. He's not "such an asset" and he's not solid. His career wRC+ is 78.

He's made a couple nice plays at SS, congrats.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

35 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Cesar has a .09 WAR compared to Leury’s 1.5. That’s pathetic. 

LOL Cesar Hernandez has 15.3 fWAR in 4000 career PA's.

Leury Has 2.4 fWAR in 2000 career PA's.

One of those is pathetic and it ain't Cesar.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I was looking at the wrong stat, he’s still at 1.7 - 1.9 for the year if I’m looking at the right stats. They are both nothing more than utility players

Isn't a 2 win player an "average starter"? https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

Quote

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth  about 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically between 0 and 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart:

Scrub	0-1 WAR
Role Player	1-2 WAR
Solid Starter	2-3 WAR
Good Player	3-4 WAR
All-Star	4-5 WAR
Superstar	5-6 WAR
MVP	6+ WAR

I'm certainly not opposed to an upgrade at that position, but if Cesar is a 2 WAR player for $6 million next year, that's fine by me. No team outside of the Dodgers is going to be built without guys like that.

The problem right now is that Cesar has not played up to a "average starter" level over the last month, and if that continues - then there are better options. Leury has absolutely played at a "role player" level over the past 3 seasons.

[southsider2k5]

Used correctly Leury is a perfect guy to have on your roster with modern roster construction.  The problem came when he was pretty much forced to start for a majority of the season.  He's also found a way to be healthy this year, which has been a normal problem for him in the past. 

The Sox seem to like Leury a lot more than Danny Mendick, so I don't see him being an issue, but it will be interesting to see what the Sox do with Romy over the next month.  He has played something like 6 or 7 defensive positions as far as I can tell, and supposedly he is really good as a defender.  If they think they can get that defense, plus a potentially better bat out of Romy, maybe the Sox look to save a few million and let Leury walk.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

he has a 2.4 fWAR in 581 career games and 2000 AB's. He's not "such an asset" and he's not solid. His career wRC+ is 78.

He's made a couple nice plays at SS, congrats.

Well, at the very least we know you can never use "I was young and stupid" as an excuse for something you did when you were 23. Leury was a -1.9 fWAR player in his age 22-24 seasons. For age 26-30, he's been worth 4.2 fWAR - just under 1 fWAR a season counting 2020. I would submit that what he did in 2013-2015 isn't all that relevant to right now.

[ShoeLessRob]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Isn't a 2 win player an "average starter"? https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

I'm certainly not opposed to an upgrade at that position, but if Cesar is a 2 WAR player for $6 million next year, that's fine by me. No team outside of the Dodgers is going to be built without guys like that.

The problem right now is that Cesar has not played up to a "average starter" level over the last month, and if that continues - then there are better options. Leury has absolutely played at a "role player" level over the past 3 seasons.

Screw you and your logic!!!! ?

I’m obviously just judging him off of the short time he’s been when us and I despise what i see. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Screw you and your logic!!!! ?

I’m obviously just judging him off of the short time he’s been when us and I despise what i see. 

You're not being unfair, this collapse by Cesar was unexpected and either it needs to end or we should look for a different option next year (and ask a few questions of the people who scouted him before the trade too).

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well, at the very least we know you can never use "I was young and stupid" as an excuse for something you did when you were 23. Leury was a -1.9 fWAR player in his age 22-24 seasons. For age 26-30, he's been worth 4.2 fWAR - just under 1 fWAR a season counting 2020. I would submit that what he did in 2013-2015 isn't all that relevant to right now.

In the past four years he's been worth 3fWAR over 1326 PA's. Good for 1.35 fWAR/600. Not the worst player in baseball, but certainly not someone who is solid or a good person to have on a ball club; especially not when considering they paid him 10 million over that period of time. Can easily find that production for much cheaper.

Danny Mendick, who sucks by most accounts, has been slightly more valuable since his MLB debut per 600. .8fWAR over 328 PA's or 1.46/600.

Leury stinks.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

In the past four years he's been worth 3fWAR over 1326 PA's. Good for 1.35 fWAR/600. Not the worst player in baseball, but certainly not someone who is solid or a good person to have on a ball club; especially not when considering they paid him 10 million over that period of time. Can easily find that production for much cheaper.

Danny Mendick, who sucks by most accounts, has been slightly more valuable since his MLB debut per 600. .8fWAR over 328 PA's or 1.46/600.

Leury stinks.

$3 million for 1.35 fWAR/600? Works for me on the bench. I'll take 3 more of those and call my bench assembled.

[South Side Hit Men]

Fangraphs provides a $ value, and Leury has vastly outperformed this metric since the Sox began fielding a legitimate ballclub in 2020.

He was paid $4.7M over the past two seasons (2020 his prorated salary with the 102 game owner lockout), and earned $14.6M per Fangraphs over these two seasons.

A contract in the $3.5-4.5M AAV range would be equitable to both sides for 2022.

[The Grinder]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Um, 2 links included to AOL webmail?

egads how did that ever occur?

[poppysox]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Bah, you gotta have at least 2 backup infielders available, even more helpful if one has minor league options, and we aren’t sure who will be starting at 2b yet.

Maybe we can make a trade with the Cubs for Madrigal.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Fangraphs provides a $ value, and Leury has vastly outperformed this metric since the Sox began fielding a legitimate ballclub in 2020.

He was paid $4.7M over the past two seasons (2020 his prorated salary with the 102 game owner lockout), and earned $14.6M per Fangraphs over these two seasons.

A contract in the $3.5-4.5M AAV range would be equitable to both sides for 2022.

Salaries do not scale down on the war scale as fangraphs universally evaluates in real life. 2 WAR players are not paid 15-18 million a year.

The leury love is absolutely baffling

Edited September 2, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run