In Defense of Leury

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Salaries do not scale down on the war scale as fangraphs universally evaluates in real life. 2 WAR players are not paid 15-18 million a year.

The leury love is absolutely baffling

Lol I don’t really think there is much love here. Dudes a rock solid 25/6th man. Can play anywhere and is a pretty good defender wherever you stick him. I’d take 100x over Mendick and for $2-3M a year which I’m sure all it would take to retain him…not a bad use of funds. 

[FoxForce2]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol I don’t really think there is much love here. Dudes a rock solid 25/6th man. Can play anywhere and is a pretty good defender wherever you stick him. I’d take 100x over Mendick and for $2-3M a year which I’m sure all it would take to retain him…not a bad use of funds. 

IMO keeping Leury on the roster 22-23 is a no brainer. The guy may not be the heart of the team, but he's functioning valve,.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol I don’t really think there is much love here. Dudes a rock solid 25/6th man. Can play anywhere and is a pretty good defender wherever you stick him. I’d take 100x over Mendick and for $2-3M a year which I’m sure all it would take to retain him…not a bad use of funds. 

Since 2018, in 100 fewer PA, Yolmer Sanchez has been a more valuable player than Leury Garcia.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Salaries do not scale down on the war scale as fangraphs universally evaluates in real life. 2 WAR players are not paid 15-18 million a year.

The leury love is absolutely baffling

Who or what is calling for $15-$18m per year?

Your response is baffling.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

19 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Who or what is calling for $15-$18m per year?

Your response is baffling.

 

It's called math. 

Fangraphs has 1 WAR being worth between 8-9 million in their valuations. Hence how his 1.8 fWAR is "worth" 14.6 million.

Fact is, 1-2 WAR aren't worth 8-16 million on the market. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[South Side Hit Men]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's called math. 

Fangraphs has 1 WAR being worth between 8-9 million in their valuations. Hence how his 1.8 fWAR is "worth" 14.6 million.

Fact is, 1-2 WAR aren't worth 8-16 million on the market. 

So when the Sox pay Leury $3.5m for 1.4 fWAR, he isn’t worth it, but when they pay Grandal $18.3M per year for his 1.7 and 2.6, it is a steal. “Sox Math”.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Since 2018, in 100 fewer PA, Yolmer Sanchez has been a more valuable player than Leury Garcia.

I….just…..I disagree. I like fWAR as much as anyone but just don’t agree in this instance. I also am surprised Yolmer doesn’t have an mlb job, but then I look at his 2021 and yikes. 

Leury isn’t some world beater. I’m not saying they should sign him to a lifetime deal or that I’m gonna be torn apart if he leaves. But he clearly fits will on this team. No I don’t want him starting and yea he’s played too much this year out of necessity. But Hell yes am I interested in resigning him to a 1 or 2 year deal at $2.5-3.5M. It’s chump change. He’s useful. That’s it. That’s all anyone is saying. 

[Greg Hibbard]

The problem with using WAR to evaluate Leury is that WAR does not accurately account for the value of positional flexibility. Leury’s single biggest asset is that he is an average to above average defensive player at literally six positions, which gives you the flexibility of resting 4 different starters a week. Also, Leury’s defensive WAR is profoundly exaggerated at all positions because of a low sample size at each one, and almost impossible to accurately measure because of the same reason.

Leury has been clearly extremely valuable to this club this season - but it is NOT in a statistically measurable way. If we didn’t have the injuries we had, IE if this was the 2005 club, he would not be valuable at all, and we would have correspondingly DFA’ed him in June. Leury will have a future somewhere with another club next year, but barring another round of freakish injuries at numerous positions, I don’t think it will be with the Sox.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Greg Hibbard

[chw42]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

So when the Sox pay Leury $3.5m for 1.4 fWAR, he isn’t worth it, but when they pay Grandal $18.3M per year for his 1.7 and 2.6, it is a steal. “Sox Math”.

$/WAR shouldn't really scale linearly. There are way more guys who can provide 1-2 WAR like Leury can than there are guys like Grandal who can give you 4-5 WAR when they're healthy. There's a reason Leury's market is under $5 million while 3-4 teams were more than happy to pay Grandal $16+ million a year for 3-4 years. 

BTW, Grandal put up 2.6 WAR while playing 68 games. He was also playing on one knee for like the first 2 months. He really isn't the guy you should be using in this example. If you wanna talk about not living up to their contract, look no further than Keuchel. 

[greg775]

I kind of like Leury. Hope he gets a chance to win a ring.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I….just…..I disagree. I like fWAR as much as anyone but just don’t agree in this instance. I also am surprised Yolmer doesn’t have an mlb job, but then I look at his 2021 and yikes. 

Leury isn’t some world beater. I’m not saying they should sign him to a lifetime deal or that I’m gonna be torn apart if he leaves. But he clearly fits will on this team. No I don’t want him starting and yea he’s played too much this year out of necessity. But Hell yes am I interested in resigning him to a 1 or 2 year deal at $2.5-3.5M. It’s chump change. He’s useful. That’s it. That’s all anyone is saying. 

That's fair and certainly entitled to those thoughts. I think leury garcia is an atrocious outfielder so I'd disagree with that, and his perceived versatility leads to him playing way too frequently which is bad. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

So when the Sox pay Leury $3.5m for 1.4 fWAR, he isn’t worth it, but when they pay Grandal $18.3M per year for his 1.7 and 2.6, it is a steal. “Sox Math”.

Lol Grandal has been worth 4.3 fWAR in 113 games with the Sox. Based on your numbers, that makes him worth 32+ million. He's been paid 24ish in that period. 

And unlike 1-2 war players, value does actually scale linear in the 3-4+ WAR range. 

[South Side Hit Men]

41 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Lol Grandal has been worth 4.3 fWAR in 113 games with the Sox. Based on your numbers, that makes him worth 32+ million. He's been paid 24ish in that period. 

And unlike 1-2 war players, value does actually scale linear in the 3-4+ WAR range. 

 

11 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's called math. 

Fangraphs has 1 WAR being worth between 8-9 million in their valuations. Hence how his 1.8 fWAR is "worth" 14.6 million.

Fact is, 1-2 WAR aren't worth 8-16 million on the market. 

That is not how "math" or "logic" works. Either 1 fWAR is worth $8-9M, or it is not, and it's worth the same regardless of whether you Stan for player or not.

• Leury earned 1.8 fWAR for $4.7M in salary, or $2.6M for each 1 fWAR he earned for the Sox.
• Grandal earned 4.3 fWAR for $25M in salary, or $5.8M per 1 fWAR earned. 
• $2.6M for 1 fWAR >>> $5.8M for 1 fWAR
• Yet you are trying to claim Leury is not worth $3M/year, marginally higher than the ML minimum. It's absurd.

Also, @chw42, there wasn't a single report of another team offering Grandal a contract in the 2020 offseason, let alone the size of the one the Sox handed out.

[ChiSox59]

11 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

So when the Sox pay Leury $3.5m for 1.4 fWAR, he isn’t worth it, but when they pay Grandal $18.3M per year for his 1.7 and 2.6, it is a steal. “Sox Math”.

LOL!!!!! Still hates Grandal! This guy, ladies and gentlemen…It’s personal, for some reason. 

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

LOL!!!!! Still hates Grandal! This guy, ladies and gentlemen…It’s personal, for some reason. 

Grandal probably kicked his dog.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

 

That is not how "math" or "logic" works. Either 1 fWAR is worth $8-9M, or it is not, and it's worth the same regardless of whether you Stan for player or not.

• Leury earned 1.8 fWAR for $4.7M in salary, or $2.6M for each 1 fWAR he earned for the Sox.
• Grandal earned 4.3 fWAR for $25M in salary, or $5.8M per 1 fWAR earned. 
• $2.6M for 1 fWAR >>> $5.8M for 1 fWAR
• Yet you are trying to claim Leury is not worth $3M/year, marginally higher than the ML minimum. It's absurd.

Also, @chw42, there wasn't a single report of another team offering Grandal a contract in the 2020 offseason, let alone the size of the one the Sox handed out.

Well no, as has already been noted the WAR per dollar scale is not linear and 1-2 WAR players don't get contracts equal to that valuation. This isn't difficult to understand.

Moral to the story, one guy is replaceable by minor leaguers like mendick, the other isn't replaceable by nearly any other catcher in the game.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Well no, as has already been noted the WAR per dollar scale is not linear and 1-2 WAR players don't get contracts equal to that valuation. This isn't difficult to understand.

Moral to the story, one guy is replaceable by minor leaguers like mendick, the other isn't replaceable by nearly any other catcher in the game.

Replacing Leury with Mendick is no loss? Sure, whatever.

[ChiSox59]

30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Well no, as has already been noted the WAR per dollar scale is not linear and 1-2 WAR players don't get contracts equal to that valuation. This isn't difficult to understand.

Moral to the story, one guy is replaceable by minor leaguers like mendick, the other isn't replaceable by nearly any other catcher in the game.

Leury is a substantially better player than Mendick.  And that is before taking into account the extreme versatility.  

I usually agree with your baseball takes, but not sure what you're digging your heels in on this one.  No one is crowning Leury an all-star - just a very useful bench piece on a good team that has been forced into frequent duty this year because he's stayed healthy and no one else has.  He also is a great clubhouse and wants to be in Chicago.  Those things also matter.   

[Greg Hibbard]

12 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

So when the Sox pay Leury $3.5m for 1.4 fWAR, he isn’t worth it, but when they pay Grandal $18.3M per year for his 1.7 and 2.6, it is a steal. “Sox Math”.

But how many professional Major League Baseball players who primarily play the position of catcher, with a minimum of 250 PAs this season, have an OPS of over .900? How many catchers have Grandal’s OBP?

Conversely, how many UT players who play a bunch of infield and or outfield positions have an OPS over .700? 

WAR does not describe everything. It’s a component - like wRC+, like OPS, like intangibles. All are valuable for vastly different reasons. WAR doesnt adequately describe value on its own.

[chw42]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

 

That is not how "math" or "logic" works. Either 1 fWAR is worth $8-9M, or it is not, and it's worth the same regardless of whether you Stan for player or not.

• Leury earned 1.8 fWAR for $4.7M in salary, or $2.6M for each 1 fWAR he earned for the Sox.
• Grandal earned 4.3 fWAR for $25M in salary, or $5.8M per 1 fWAR earned. 
• $2.6M for 1 fWAR >>> $5.8M for 1 fWAR
• Yet you are trying to claim Leury is not worth $3M/year, marginally higher than the ML minimum. It's absurd.

Also, @chw42, there wasn't a single report of another team offering Grandal a contract in the 2020 offseason, let alone the size of the one the Sox handed out.

The Reds gave $64 million to Moustakas over 4 years because they couldn't land Grandal. The Brewers wanted Grandal back, just not at the number we paid him. I'm sure they would have wanted him back at around 4 years and $60 million. 2 other teams were more than willing to pay him more than $60 million to play for them. 

[chw42]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Well no, as has already been noted the WAR per dollar scale is not linear and 1-2 WAR players don't get contracts equal to that valuation. This isn't difficult to understand.

Moral to the story, one guy is replaceable by minor leaguers like mendick, the other isn't replaceable by nearly any other catcher in the game.

I like how we have to keep defending Grandal even when we just went through a month of some of the worst catching performances we've had in recent history without him and the guy has an OPS over .900 and is hitting .529 with 4 homers since coming back last week. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by chw42

[Bob Sacamano]

19 minutes ago, chw42 said:

I like how we have to keep defending Grandal even when we just went through a month of some of the worst catching performances we've had in recent history without him and the guy has an OPS over .900 and is hitting .529 with 4 homers since coming back last week. 

Fuckin right?! It was clear how badly we were missing him just by watching Collins and Seby every day.

[ShoeLessRob]

I was super anti Grandal since his defense wasn’t as good as I believe he was billed and still hate his contract since I fear he won’t play more than 100 games a season going forward. BUT FUCK. I never want to see Collins or Zavala play again. If that’s what other teams have to deal with it realky puts in perspective the level of quality in catchers. Zavala was suppose to be a defensive guru and he sucks. 

[chw42]

2 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I was super anti Grandal since his defense wasn’t as good as I believe he was billed and still hate his contract since I fear he won’t play more than 100 games a season going forward. BUT FUCK. I never want to see Collins or Zavala play again. If that’s what other teams have to deal with it realky puts in perspective the level of quality in catchers. Zavala was suppose to be a defensive guru and he sucks. 

Seby is ok at framing, but looks like he has a hole in his catcher's mitt. Collins is the main reason we get screwed by umpires so much because he makes borderline pitches look like sure balls most of the time. Seby is basically a replacement level catcher and Collins is probably the worst catcher in baseball given how bad his framing is. 

[bmags]

Seb's past balls are going to make him a below replacement level catcher unless he has some more HR barrages. Shouldn't be hard to find a defensive specialist at C with little offense.