Keuchel and sticky balls

[SouthsideDon48]

I've been reading that some people think Dallas Keuchel's problems started ever since MLB has started checking for sticky substances, and that Dallas' success before was in part due to being able to use sticky substances before.

I thought I'd ask here since you are all smart baseball guys, but how exactly does a stucky ball help a pitcher?  Wouldnt stickiness on the fingers cause the ball to lose velocity due to the ball being stuck to the fingers?  Using sticky substances seems counter-productive.  I can see more benefits to a spitball than a sticky ball.  Can anyone explain the science behind how a pitcher benefits from a sticky ball?

[Timmy U]

A slight stick on the ball increases spin rate, which can make a ball move. Generally, substances like Spider Tack seem to help high velocity 4-seamers more than 2-seam sinkerballs, though. So that may not be Keuchel’s problem.

[bmags]

I think it's more likely he's lost about 1 mph on his fastballs (sinker and 4seam) since he joined. He still thrived last year, but in a longer season where everyone's seen him longer, I wonder if his stuff has just gotten slow enough where it's easier to lay off out of zone drop, and barrel up the in the zone stuff. His pitches still sink well, but he's likely toast.

 

[Tony]

10 hours ago, SouthsideDon48 said:

I've been reading that some people think Dallas Keuchel's problems started ever since MLB has started checking for sticky substances, and that Dallas' success before was in part due to being able to use sticky substances before.

I thought I'd ask here since you are all smart baseball guys, but how exactly does a stucky ball help a pitcher?  Wouldnt stickiness on the fingers cause the ball to lose velocity due to the ball being stuck to the fingers?  Using sticky substances seems counter-productive.  I can see more benefits to a spitball than a sticky ball.  Can anyone explain the science behind how a pitcher benefits from a sticky ball?

I know Barstool isn't for everyone, but the Chicago guys made a pretty good video that shows what it can do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leitq2viZqI&ab_channel=BarstoolChicago

[chw42]

2021 Keuchel:

2020 Keuchel:

The biggest difference I see is that his cutter is now terrible. He was mostly throwing it low and in to hitters last year. It's far more off the plate this year and up. High cutters get destroyed. And if it's too far inside, righties won't swing at it. He was in a good place with it last year, but now it's a meat pitch. It's so terrible that he throws it 5% less now. His cutter was his best pitch by run value last year at +10. It's now his second worst (next to the sinker) at -9. That's almost a 20 run difference in the span of a year.

His slider is also far more inconsistent this year, which is a big reason why his number vs. lefties are terrible. It seems like he only throws his sinker and change up in almost one spot as well, which kind of goes back to the idea that he's been nibbling since he's afraid of those 2 pitches getting hit hard if they are anywhere near the middle of the plate (and they have been).

I think the fact that he can't use his cutter anymore as a consistent out-pitch has decreased the effectiveness of his change up and sinker. His control on the cutter has been bad all year with the exception of a few starts. When he's had good cutter command, he's been able to post good starts vs. good offenses like Cincinnati, Tampa, and Toronto. When he hasn't had it...well you've seen how the last 3 starts went. 

 

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I think it's more likely he's lost about 1 mph on his fastballs (sinker and 4seam) since he joined. He still thrived last year, but in a longer season where everyone's seen him longer, I wonder if his stuff has just gotten slow enough where it's easier to lay off out of zone drop, and barrel up the in the zone stuff. His pitches still sink well, but he's likely toast.

 

His ERA was relatively respectable at the ASB - I wonder if this has more to do with him just completely breaking down after having not pitched that long over the past handful of seasons.  Keuchel had a run where he was pretty solid - but he always struggled 3rd time through but than more recently it has obviously been a disaster.  

[chw42]

6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

His ERA was relatively respectable at the ASB - I wonder if this has more to do with him just completely breaking down after having not pitched that long over the past handful of seasons.  Keuchel had a run where he was pretty solid - but he always struggled 3rd time through but than more recently it has obviously been a disaster.  

Yeah up until the Rays start in Tampa, he was actually pretty decent until he got went through the order the 3rd time. That's been his issue most of his career though.