ALDS PREVIEW

[he gone.]

Probably a bit early to look ahead, but at the same time there's very little likelihood that we catch the Rays or that Oakland/Seattle catch Houston. Only thing really TBD is 3 games in Houston or Southside. So wanted to discuss the rotation and how people would like that to lineup for a potential matchup. 

Lynn - home era 2.60, road era 2.31, day era 1.25, night era 3.18. One GS against HOU, 4ip, 6runs, 13.50ERA. Career 5ERA at minute maid, poor against houston last year with a 12era, 16 runs in 11IP last year. really, he's done poor at 4 ballparks in his career ... wrigley, minute maid, yankee ... and suprisingly PNC. 

Giolito - Home era 3.79, road era 3.60, day era 4.98, night era 2.92. One game against HOU this year, complete game 3 hitter, 1r. 

Cease Home era 3.22, road era 5.37, day era 3.05, night era 4.97. 2 GS against HOU, 9ERA, 10R

Rodon home era 2.45, road era 2.32, day era 3.40, night era 1.81. 2 GS against HOU, 0.64ERA

As much as i love lance lynn and would say he's the ace of this team, his numbers against the Astros over the past 2 years is poor. Every out in the postseason is big, so something to think about when picking game 1/game 5 starter. 

Meanwhile Rodon has cleaned up against Houston ... has even road/home splits as well. 

Cease clearly has an advantage pitching during the day and at home. some guys respond okay to different routines, some need that day to prepare. 

Giolito seems to be one of those guys. and that doesn't surprise me. he seems to be methodical and maybe it's as simple as afternoon games he can't get comfortable in his routines? 

Of course all of these stats can be skewed by a start or two and not sure how different they look going back to other seasons ... but it's worth discussing. 

 

Assuming Houston has a better record, I'd go: 

Rodon

Lynn

Travel Day

Cease?

Giolito

Travel Day

Rodon or Lynn? 

This lines up Cease at home, also lines him up in Game 3. I chose this assuming that if things go wrong we'd need a decent amount of innings from the bullpen & that a Kopech/Crochet could be fresh enough 3 days later to come in for high leverage 2IP relief. You could very easily sway me in any rotation breakdown. I'd also consider Giolito out of the gate, switching with Rodon. Cease at 4 makes sense too, because correct me if I'm wrong, but that would lineup for a bullpen day for whoever starts game 3, meaning they could give you an inning?

 

Also wonder how TLR historically has handled arms in the playoffs. I feel like this phenomenon of being on a super short leash is over the past 6-8 years. Like, didn't it really, really start with Bumgarner? Which now that i think of it is like 10 years ago... But either way TLR wasn't really around then. So wonder if he's a quick leash, or maybe more of the Ozzie 5 CG in a row mentality. 

[Quin]

1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

Probably a bit early to look ahead, but at the same time there's very little likelihood that we catch the Rays or that Oakland/Seattle catch Houston. Only thing really TBD is 3 games in Houston or Southside. So wanted to discuss the rotation and how people would like that to lineup for a potential matchup. 

Lynn - home era 2.60, road era 2.31, day era 1.25, night era 3.18. One GS against HOU, 4ip, 6runs, 13.50ERA. Career 5ERA at minute maid, poor against houston last year with a 12era, 16 runs in 11IP last year. really, he's done poor at 4 ballparks in his career ... wrigley, minute maid, yankee ... and suprisingly PNC. 

Giolito - Home era 3.79, road era 3.60, day era 4.98, night era 2.92. One game against HOU this year, complete game 3 hitter, 1r. 

Cease Home era 3.22, road era 5.37, day era 3.05, night era 4.97. 2 GS against HOU, 9ERA, 10R

Rodon home era 2.45, road era 2.32, day era 3.40, night era 1.81. 2 GS against HOU, 0.64ERA

As much as i love lance lynn and would say he's the ace of this team, his numbers against the Astros over the past 2 years is poor. Every out in the postseason is big, so something to think about when picking game 1/game 5 starter. 

Meanwhile Rodon has cleaned up against Houston ... has even road/home splits as well. 

Cease clearly has an advantage pitching during the day and at home. some guys respond okay to different routines, some need that day to prepare. 

Giolito seems to be one of those guys. and that doesn't surprise me. he seems to be methodical and maybe it's as simple as afternoon games he can't get comfortable in his routines? 

Of course all of these stats can be skewed by a start or two and not sure how different they look going back to other seasons ... but it's worth discussing. 

 

Assuming Houston has a better record, I'd go: 

Rodon

Lynn

Travel Day

Cease?

Giolito

Travel Day

Rodon or Lynn? 

This lines up Cease at home, also lines him up in Game 3. I chose this assuming that if things go wrong we'd need a decent amount of innings from the bullpen & that a Kopech/Crochet could be fresh enough 3 days later to come in for high leverage 2IP relief. You could very easily sway me in any rotation breakdown. I'd also consider Giolito out of the gate, switching with Rodon. Cease at 4 makes sense too, because correct me if I'm wrong, but that would lineup for a bullpen day for whoever starts game 3, meaning they could give you an inning?

 

Also wonder how TLR historically has handled arms in the playoffs. I feel like this phenomenon of being on a super short leash is over the past 6-8 years. Like, didn't it really, really start with Bumgarner? Which now that i think of it is like 10 years ago... But either way TLR wasn't really around then. So wonder if he's a quick leash, or maybe more of the Ozzie 5 CG in a row mentality. 

Based pretty much on these two alone, I'd roll up with Rodon-Giolito-Lynn-Cease if we're on the road. In a picture perfect world, that sets you up for Lynn to close it out at home.

Plus, I think of all the pitchers, Rodon might get the biggest "good" adrenaline boost from pitching Game 1.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Lynn is your game 1 starter no questions about it. 

I'd like to see Hendriks start game 4 if the schedule allows for it.

Edited September 13, 2021 by Buehrle>Wood

[reiks12]

5 minutes ago, Quin said:

Based pretty much on these two alone, I'd roll up with Rodon-Giolito-Lynn-Cease if we're on the road. In a picture perfect world, that sets you up for Lynn to close it out at home.

Plus, I think of all the pitchers, Rodon might get the biggest "good" adrenaline boost from pitching Game 1.

I agree with this, to add Giolito dominated Houston in July throwing a complete game 3 hitter and striking out 8. Id like to see him following Rodon with Lynn pitching the important game 3. 

[South Side Hit Men]

I would go with Lucas, both as the Ace of the staff and his overall success against Houston over his career (.610 OPS allowed, 3.71 ERA, 1.000 WHIP).

I can see arguments for any of the three, so it will be interesting as to how they line things up, including whether they choose to get creative with the fourth spot (Kopech opener, other options).

[chw42]

7 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Lynn is your game 1 starter no questions about it. 

I'd like to see Hendriks start game 4 if the schedule allows for it.

The last time Liam started a game in the playoffs, it went very poorly. 

Edited September 13, 2021 by chw42

[chw42]

I think you go Rodon game 1, especially if he shows you that he can still throw high 90s consistently in his last few starts before the playoffs begin. His numbers against Houston are hard to argue against and he's shut them down twice this year. Lynn just doesn't match up well against Houston at all. If you start him, go with him in game 2. Giolito should go game 3 assuming it's not at 11 in the morning and Cease must pitch at home since his road numbers are pretty bad. 

[TheTruth05]

I love Lynn but history shows he's not great in Houston. I would go Carlos/Giolito 1&2 in Houston and Lynn Game 3 at home. 

[flavum]

Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Cease…then you have your choice on Lynn and Rodon to start Game 5, with other in the pen.

[CentralChamps21]

If Sox have HFA I go Lynn/Cease/Giolito/Rodon

If Astros have HFA I go Giolito/Rodon/Lynn/Cease

I want Lynn and Cease pitching at home.

[glangon]

I would do the following:- 

G1 - Lynn

G2 - Rodon

Travel Day

G3 - Giolito

G4 - Lynn (on short rest if needed

Travel Day

G5 Rodon (on regular rest)

I'd have Keuchel and Cease ready to go in long relief if any of the starters struggle. 

[Dam8610]

The splits seem to suggest the following would be optimal assuming things hold as they are now:

Game 1: Rodon

Game 2: Giolito

Game 3: Lynn

Game 4: Cease

Game 5: Rodon

Put your best pitchers against the Astros at Minute Maid, put Lynn and Cease at home where they seem to do better against the Astros. The White Sox don't have to beat generic team X, they have to beat the Astros, and the numbers suggest these are the best pitching matchups to do that.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

15 minutes ago, glangon said:

I would do the following:- 

G1 - Lynn

G2 - Rodon

Travel Day

G3 - Giolito

G4 - Lynn (on short rest if needed

Travel Day

G5 Rodon (on regular rest)

I'd have Keuchel and Cease ready to go in long relief if any of the starters struggle. 

interesting.  Then back to 4 man for the 7 game series?

[Colome's Hat]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Lynn is your game 1 starter no questions about it. 

I'd like to see Hendriks start game 4 if the schedule allows for it.

Can you explain this to me?

 

Like I'm geninuinely curious how this would work.  I know Hendriks was a starter.  I guess having Kimbrel allows us to do this but am curious if he would pitch more than two innings.

I know a lot of people are likely alarmed at Cease's last start but I'm not.  The Red Sox have owned him this year.  I think he'll be fine and have no issues with him starting.

Edited September 13, 2021 by Colome's Hat

[Buehrle>Wood]

1 hour ago, Colome's Hat said:

Can you explain this to me?

 

Like I'm geninuinely curious how this would work.  I know Hendriks was a starter.  I guess having Kimbrel allows us to do this but am curious if he would pitch more than two innings.

I know a lot of people are likely alarmed at Cease's last start but I'm not.  The Red Sox have owned him this year.  I think he'll be fine and have no issues with him starting.

No I would just have him 2 innings to start. Bullpen it, put Cease in there too, just preferably not vs the heart of the Houston order. Hendriks+Kopech+Cease+Lopez (I guess) with Kimbrel to close would be plenty to cover 9. This would of course make a lot more sense if these guys were on their game.

Edited September 13, 2021 by Buehrle>Wood

[ShoeLessRob]

If we have to face Houston and they have HF, this is going to be a short playoff push. 

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

If we have to face Houston and they have HF, this is going to be a short playoff push. 

I like the confidence. After all, the Sox do have a good playoff history at Minute Maid.

[glangon]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

interesting.  Then back to 4 man for the 7 game series?

Yes, that's what I'd do. Don't wheel out your number 4 or 5 unless you need to. The pitchers can rest after we win it all and we have a deep bullpen, why not take advantage of it. 

[CentralChamps21]

14 minutes ago, glangon said:

Yes, that's what I'd do. Don't wheel out your number 4 or 5 unless you need to. The pitchers can rest after we win it all and we have a deep bullpen, why not take advantage of it. 

I think you need to keep that as an option, but you need to consider a number of factors: how well has your #4 guy been pitching, how well did the #1 guy throw in Game 1, how many pitches did he throw, has he ever thrown on short rest before, how much bullpen is available if you need to have a quick hook.

Also consider that if you use your #1 guy in a Game 4 and then your #2 guy in Game 5, you're committing to starting off the next series with your #3 guy.

I think you have to have a pretty low level of confidence in your #4 guy to do this. Unless Cease has a couple more starts like the Boston one, I wouldn't do it.

[glangon]

4 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

I think you need to keep that as an option, but you need to consider a number of factors: how well has your #4 guy been pitching, how well did the #1 guy throw in Game 1, how many pitches did he throw, has he ever thrown on short rest before, how much bullpen is available if you need to have a quick hook.

Also consider that if you use your #1 guy in a Game 4 and then your #2 guy in Game 5, you're committing to starting off the next series with your #3 guy.

I think you have to have a pretty low level of confidence in your #4 guy to do this. Unless Cease has a couple more starts like the Boston one, I wouldn't do it.

Or if the risk pays off, you are starting with your number 2 guy in the ALCS. Running 2,3 on the road, 4,1,2 at home, then 3,1 on the road. Which would mean Giolito in Tampa twice, Lynn and Rodon in the games you need them most and a totally rested Cease for Game 3 at home. 

 

Yeah it could backfire and it's not about having a low level of confidence in #4, it's about getting your potential CY Young winner and Rodon out when you need them the most. 

[ShoeLessRob]

42 minutes ago, Quin said:

I like the confidence. After all, the Sox do have a good playoff history at Minute Maid.

Yes 15+ years ago, great memories. This years team is not good on the road and is average/below average against over .500 teams. Just tempering expectations.

[WarrenNewsom]

How do you think the Astros will line their pitchers up?

[flavum]

Just now, WarrenNewsom said:

How do you think the Astros will line their pitchers up?

You know his name is Warren Newson, right?

[he gone.]

maybe ... mccullers, greinke, garcia, odorizzi, valdez?? i haven't looked into their splits very much. uquirdy is there too ... 

two old school minds competing ... dusty and TLR. wild. wonder if that's the oldest combined ages of managers ever for a playoff game?

on paper we should have the pitching advantage. garcia is still pitching well of late, but hes way past his normal IP as a rookie. valdez has been struggling. mccullers is kind of giolito like. when hes locked in and has his slider he's one of the best, if not? then he's a bit erratic. it will be a fun, fun series. they have bats galore, but one can argue now that we'd be healthy with eloy and robert, so do we. 

[Soxsi75]

Here's something to be positive about.  I definitely believe that McCullers is Houston's best starter and there isn't a great deal of doubt he will start Game 1 for them. But with us, we have 3 guys who could, as the fact that this post even exists proves. Greinke is 37 and Garcia and Valdez have some nice numbers but they both have blown away the number of innings they've ever pitched before. So our rotation has to be considered deeper based on this.