Future rotation may look like this

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I hope Kopech is given a chance for at least a few months next season. Really disappointed he is at 57 innings, though he seemed to be pitching better his last longer outing (his first since May), and hopefully he can pitch 2+ solid innings when called upon in the postseason.

Things changed this year with his injury.  He was absolutely being ramped up earlier this year, but they definitely put the training wheels back on after he got hurt.

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

12 minutes ago, RG23SoxFan said:

So are you meaning as possibly a closer in the future?  I have been thinking that his drop in velocity this season has a lot to do with prepping him to eventually be a starter.

I think they want him to be more versatile like Josh Hader than a one inning closer. 

[Thad Bosley]

38 minutes ago, Tony said:

I'm not convinced that's true, at all. 

Say the Sox make a long playoff run. Say they win the World Series and Rodon is the ace during the playoffs, pulls a Bumgarner. While that will earn him more money on the open market, I also could very easily see Jerry and the brass making sure that World Series "hero" doesn't walk away for nothing....

A lot will have to do with this teams performance in October. 

The wild card is Mr. Boras as agent greatly reduces the likelihood of Rodon returning, especially if he lights it up next month.  

I’m not convinced this organization as currently owned and operated will ever agree to sign a Boras premium free agent.  

Hope I’m wrong, because I love Rodon.

[Flash]

25 minutes ago, RG23SoxFan said:

So are you meaning as possibly a closer in the future?  I have been thinking that his drop in velocity this season has a lot to do with prepping him to eventually be a starter.

I've wondered if his veto dip is by design in order to protect against injury or if he indeed has lost a couple of ticks. I keep waiting for him to bring the 2020 heat he showed in the POs, even if just to confirm he can still light it up at 101-103 but he's either deliberately throttling back or unable.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

46 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Agreed, due to the horrible way we handled him.

While I also agree that he will not be in the starting rotation I do not rule it out. I certainly do not agree that he's been handled badly.

His college career was not exactly filled with massive success and health. His debut with the Sox was short and sweet and he got injured.

I think the main goal for him this year was to get him through the season uninjured and to try to improve his pitch mix. He's still basically a 2 pitch pitcher with an occasional changeup thrown. You need more than 2 pitches to start.

I'm not sure how anyone thinks he should have been handled. He has the talent to contribute to the White Sox so he's doing that in the capacity he can handle because of his lack of a strong healthy body of work as a starter.

The Sox could not afford to keep him in the minors  to have him starting there and risk injury . They just don't have that luxury while they are contenders to keep a talented arm down on the farm.

I said at the beginning of the season I'd be very happy if he could just make it through the season healthy . It might not be the goal others had in mind for him but that's always been my main concern with him. The Sox can build on that .

Edited September 14, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ChiSox59]

43 minutes ago, Tony said:

I'm not convinced that's true, at all. 

Say the Sox make a long playoff run. Say they win the World Series and Rodon is the ace during the playoffs, pulls a Bumgarner. While that will earn him more money on the open market, I also could very easily see Jerry and the brass making sure that World Series "hero" doesn't walk away for nothing....

A lot will have to do with this teams performance in October. 

Then hand him a QO.

Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, and Keuchel is the 2022 rotation.  ReyLo has probably worked his way into the coversation to take starts for Kopech to keep innings in check since they botched that situation in 21, and hopefully some for Keuchel as well to keep him under 160 innigns since it looks like they're going to botch that in 21 as well.

I just don't see how being the high bidder on Rodon at $18-20M AAV over 3-5 year is a wise-use of resources, or a good investment.  Some people here even think he might get into Wheeler terrority, which I highly doubt, but you really think Sox are going to hand out potentially their biggest contract ever to a guy who can't stay healthy under their watch, and has a total of like 20 starts of being anything more than a backend SP?  

So yeah, color me convinced.  Even if he is the WS MVP. 

[RG23SoxFan]

7 minutes ago, Flash said:

I've wondered if his veto dip is by design in order to protect against injury or if he indeed has lost a couple of ticks. I keep waiting for him to bring the 2020 heat he showed in the POs, even if just to confirm he can still light it up at 101-103 but he's either deliberately throttling back or unable.  

I think if he really reached back he could still throw 100+, but guess Idk for sure.  This is why I am thinking the drop in velocity is by design because I don't think they realistically believe he could throw 5 or 6 innings per start consistently throwing several 100+ pitches.  I don't feel like they have handled him poorly and if they want him to start eventually it makes sense for him to dial it back and hopefully develop a third pitch. 

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then hand him a QO.

Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, and Keuchel is the 2022 rotation.  ReyLo has probably worked his way into the coversation to take starts for Kopech to keep innings in check since they botched that situation in 21, and hopefully some for Keuchel as well to keep him under 160 innigns since it looks like they're going to botch that in 21 as well.

I just don't see how being the high bidder on Rodon at $18-20M AAV over 3-5 year is a wise-use of resources, or a good investment.  Some people here even think he might get into Wheeler terrority, which I highly doubt, but you really think Sox are going to hand out potentially their biggest contract ever to a guy who can't stay healthy under their watch, and has a total of like 20 starts of being anything more than a backend SP?  

So yeah, color me convinced.  Even if he is the WS MVP. 

If it still exists, you give hinm a QO, and then if bidding really does get into 3-4 year range, you let him walk.  Given his history, you just can't put those kinds of funds into someone who is hurt so often.

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If it still exists, you give hinm a QO, and then if bidding really does get into 3-4 year range, you let him walk.  Given his history, you just can't put those kinds of funds into someone who is hurt so often.

There is no way the CBA is hammered out before the QO decision is due. It’ll exist. The compensation may ultimately change tho. 

[South Side Hit Men]

51 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Things changed this year with his injury.  He was absolutely being ramped up earlier this year, but they definitely put the training wheels back on after he got hurt.

Yes, I thought he would be ramped up to 2-3 IP appearances after the All Star Game. Perhaps he physically needed to take it slow to get to this point, he had spotty performances.  Rodon also hit a wall approaching 100 IP this year, though he was working off a much lower baseline (34 in 2019 and 7 last year). The rest really helped him regain his velocity last start, and he should be fresh going into the Playoffs.

Overall, they have done a great job managing Kopech and Rodon to get to this stage, and Kopech can still hit 70-80 + innings depending on how far the Sox advance.

Edited September 14, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

48 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Things changed this year with his injury.  He was absolutely being ramped up earlier this year, but they definitely put the training wheels back on after he got hurt.

 

Kopech has pitched enough innings this year to get 150+ innings next year if what Cease and Burnes and possibly others have done from 2020 to 2021. The only thing I would question about what I just said was that Cease and Burnes did that while also pitching previously to 2020 while Kopech missed 2 years .

[Tony]

42 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then hand him a QO.

Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, and Keuchel is the 2022 rotation.  ReyLo has probably worked his way into the coversation to take starts for Kopech to keep innings in check since they botched that situation in 21, and hopefully some for Keuchel as well to keep him under 160 innigns since it looks like they're going to botch that in 21 as well.

I just don't see how being the high bidder on Rodon at $18-20M AAV over 3-5 year is a wise-use of resources, or a good investment.  Some people here even think he might get into Wheeler terrority, which I highly doubt, but you really think Sox are going to hand out potentially their biggest contract ever to a guy who can't stay healthy under their watch, and has a total of like 20 starts of being anything more than a backend SP?  

So yeah, color me convinced.  Even if he is the WS MVP. 

I didn't re-signing Rodon is what I would do. 

But knowing the Sox, having drafted Rodon, and knowing Jerry's loyalty, especially to players that have had success in a White Sox uniform..........I'm not discounting that the Sox don't bring him back if there is a deep October run. Boras or not, I think some of the FO will have a hard time seeing him walk away after all the fruits of their labor finally paid off, then he goes somewhere else. 

We'll see. 

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

I didn't re-signing Rodon is what I would do. 

But knowing the Sox, having drafted Rodon, and knowing Jerry's loyalty, especially to players that have had success in a White Sox uniform..........I'm not discounting that the Sox don't bring him back if there is a deep October run. Boras or not, I think some of the FO will have a hard time seeing him walk away after all the fruits of their labor finally paid off, then he goes somewhere else. 

We'll see. 

I hear ya.  But I don't think Jerry's loyalty is going to outweigh his dislike for handing pitchers monster contracts, not to mention one that can't stay healthy and frankly has a very limited track record of actually being good.  Then there's also the fact that the rotation is pretty set already moving forward.   

[Tony]

27 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I hear ya.  But I don't think Jerry's loyalty is going to outweigh his dislike for handing pitchers monster contracts, not to mention one that can't stay healthy and frankly has a very limited track record of actually being good.  Then there's also the fact that the rotation is pretty set already moving forward.   

Which is why I don't think Rodon's contract is going to be that massive, and why I think there is a better shot than most think that he stays. It's for those very reasons. 

* I should add if I was putting money down, I would probably bet against him coming back. I'm not saying it's just this slam dunk he returns. I just think the probability of him coming back is higher than most here feel. 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Which is why I don't think Rodon's contract is going to be that massive, and why I think there is a better shot than most think that he stays. It's for those very reasons. 

* I should add if I was putting money down, I would probably bet against him coming back. I'm not saying it's just this slam dunk he returns. I just think the probability of him coming back is higher than most here feel. 

Rodon is a bigger risk but also has bigger upside than Lynn if he can continue to ramp up innings and perform as he has this season. Sure it's a bigger health risk, but there is also a risk Lynn declines due to age, his knee becomes a chronic issue which deteriorates further, etc.

Under the current CBA, can a player resign with a club after rejecting a qualifying offer? Are these rules (qualifying offers) in place this offseason with the 12/2/21 end of the CBA?

If yes to both, a QO is a near certainty, they can always extend the term on dollars to reach a deal. Depending on the future of a "luxury tax", some big market clubs may still continue to pass on big $ free agents, leaving the Mets and Dodgers as the only two possibly willing to blow through the 2022 threshold, and leaving the Sox in good shape if the Dodgers and Mets decide to pursue other options.

[ChiSox59]

42 minutes ago, Tony said:

Which is why I don't think Rodon's contract is going to be that massive, and why I think there is a better shot than most think that he stays. It's for those very reasons. 

* I should add if I was putting money down, I would probably bet against him coming back. I'm not saying it's just this slam dunk he returns. I just think the probability of him coming back is higher than most here feel. 

Yeah, I also don't think he's going to get the paydays some around here think ($120M+ Wheeler deal is comp that has been thrown around), but IMO his floor is $15-18M AAV on a 3 year deal, assuming he doesn't get seriously injured next 45 days.  Still not really an investment I think the Sox should or will make based on where things currently stand.