FoxForce2 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) New guy here and a little shy about starting a new thread - but here goes. Scanning through the MLB site post AS break team stats reveals a few negatives: While we're 5th in league OPS, we're not hitting many doubles or triples (86 2b/12th in league) (4 3b/14th in league), i.e the only reason we're in the top 3rd of the AL in OPS is due to the increase in HR hit in the last half of the season. Feast or famine re: XBH. Two points that have jumped out at just about everyone: (1) We have a grand total of 8 Sac Flys (tied for league worst.) This stat alone indicates that we're getting the runners on but are not getting runners in at anything like a reasonable rate. (2) A league worst 55 GIDP. The Sox are top 5-6 (American League), in just about all other areas. Not exactly meh but not sterling either. I don't know that we're shooting ourselves in the foot so much as tripping over our own feet. At least some of this has to do with TLR's style as well as late summer fatigue and the over-time abilities of players. Looking at individuals - I can understand Vaughn's rookie challenges, but what's up with Eloy? At this point, even considering the value of resting players, I'm not overly optimistic about the playoff chances against Houston. Thoughts? Edited September 17, 2021 by FoxForce2 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 The Sox are currently: - Tied for 3rd lowest launch angle in baseball - Tied for 3rd highest groundball rate in baseball - 7th lowest fly ball rate in baseball Oddly enough...as OP mentions, they are near the bottom of the league in sac flies post ASB, but they had the 4th most sac flies in baseball pre ASB. All while having a higher groundout to air out rate in the first half. What's it all mean? I'm not smart enough to know. Is it poor approach, poor execution, bad luck or all of the above? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, Snopek said: The Sox are currently: - Tied for 3rd lowest launch angle in baseball - Tied for 3rd highest groundball rate in baseball - 7th lowest fly ball rate in baseball Oddly enough...as OP mentions, they are near the bottom of the league in sac flies post ASB, but they had the 4th most sac flies in baseball pre ASB. All while having a higher groundout to air out rate in the first half. What's it all mean? I'm not smart enough to know. Is it poor approach, poor execution, bad luck or all of the above? Are your totals since the break or full season? Because if we are talking full season then it's all gonna look wonky because of the injuries and the replacement players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralChamps21 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 This season I don't put too much stock into team stats, especially when projecting playoff performance. Yermin Mercedes (262), Adam Eaton (219), Zach Collins (215), Nick Madrigal (215), Danny Mendick (186), Jake Lamb (131), Billy Hamilton (120), Sevy Zavala (104), Jake Burger (42), Romy Gonzalez (20), Nick Williams (13), and Luis Gonzalez (11) combined to account for 28% of the team's plate appearances to date, and these guys will account for either zero or a very minimal number of postseason PA. That said, I do think the groundball rate is way too high, and just my perception from watching games is that the 'A' lineup is just as guilty as the guys I've listed above. TA, Leury and Eloy are really, really bad at both average launch angle and GO/AO ratio. On the flip side, Moncada, Grandal, and (surprisingly) Goodwin are much, much better at both, and they're also three of the more patient hitters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxForce2 Posted September 17, 2021 Author Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said: This season I don't put too much stock into team stats, especially when projecting playoff performance. Yermin Mercedes (262), Adam Eaton (219), Zach Collins (215), Nick Madrigal (215), Danny Mendick (186), Jake Lamb (131), Billy Hamilton (120), Sevy Zavala (104), Jake Burger (42), Romy Gonzalez (20), Nick Williams (13), and Luis Gonzalez (11) combined to account for 28% of the team's plate appearances to date, and these guys will account for either zero or a very minimal number of postseason PA. Well yeah, and this is why I'm concentrating on second half numbers. Slotting in Robert, Jimenez and even a somewhat modified Grandal (he's not walking as much as he did first half), changes the equation significantly. One thing I just ran across is that we're fourth in the league in singles and near the bottom in doubles and triples. Considering the XBH power we have in the lineup, I find these numbers unusual. Yes the high rate of GBs account for a lot of this - but why so many GB in the first place? Edited September 17, 2021 by FoxForce2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: Are your totals since the break or full season? Because if we are talking full season then it's all gonna look wonky because of the injuries and the replacement players They are full season. But, honestly, there have been so many guys in and out of the lineup both pre and post ASB that it may just look wonky regardless. - Grandal missed more of his games post ASB - Tim missed more of his post ASB - Robert missed more pre ASB - Eloy obviously missed more pre ASB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snopek said: They are full season. But, honestly, there have been so many guys in and out of the lineup both pre and post ASB that it may just look wonky regardless. - Grandal missed more of his games post ASB - Tim missed more of his post ASB - Robert missed more pre ASB - Eloy obviously missed more pre ASB It's hard to figure out what this teams "normal" is 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) The key factor is what form do players have going into the playoffs. Robert and Grandal have been excellent since returning. Eloy has looked poor beyond a couple games. Time will tell if Adam can return to his strong form over the past two very limited but promising seasons. Tim, Jose and Yoan have been strong this season. The key concerns are the staff running out of gas. Carlos has literally run out of gas, as the team is hoping he can patch together two more starts, and perhaps two, possibly three playoff starts. Lucas didn’t look sharp in his return, but he has a few more starts to figure things out and gain distance. Will need to see if Lynn’s knee can remain stable for his remaining starts. Cease as always is like a box of chocolates. Edited September 17, 2021 by South Side Hit Men 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: It's hard to figure out what this teams "normal" is It really is. And this coming after last year's weirdo season which was another "throw the stats out the window" type season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Snopek said: The Sox are currently: - Tied for 3rd lowest launch angle in baseball - Tied for 3rd highest groundball rate in baseball - 7th lowest fly ball rate in baseball Oddly enough...as OP mentions, they are near the bottom of the league in sac flies post ASB, but they had the 4th most sac flies in baseball pre ASB. All while having a higher groundout to air out rate in the first half. What's it all mean? I'm not smart enough to know. Is it poor approach, poor execution, bad luck or all of the above? What's weird is that the Sox actually had the lowest launch angle in the first half and are now middle of the pack in the 2nd half. What's even weirder is that this does not apply when we have runners on third and less than 2 outs. You know, when you want to hit the ball in the air. In those situations, we went from a team that hit a ton of fly balls in the first half to a team that refuses to in the 2nd half. It's just freaking bizarre. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 hour ago, chw42 said: What's weird is that the Sox actually had the lowest launch angle in the first half and are now middle of the pack in the 2nd half. What's even weirder is that this does not apply when we have runners on third and less than 2 outs. You know, when you want to hit the ball in the air. In those situations, we went from a team that hit a ton of fly balls in the first half to a team that refuses to in the 2nd half. It's just freaking bizarre. You should tweet or DM Fegan, see if he can't ask the question to TLR or Menechino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tony said: You should tweet or DM Fegan, see if he can't ask the question to TLR or Menechino. I just might. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Just now, chw42 said: I just might. You put together some really good stats and info that tell a very interesting story. At the end of a long season, I'm sure guys like that are always looking for new angles or a potential story. You should DM him with some of the numbers you posted, and just ask him if he can look into it more with some of the responsible parties involved. My bet is you get a response. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Was there any doubt we’d have an early sac fly in the game tonight after this thread was created? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Pasqua Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Just look at our record vs teams above .500 and you will find out who we really are imo 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Dan Pasqua said: Just look at our record vs teams above .500 and you will find out who we really are imo I don’t think that tells us much of anything, considering we weren’t even close to full strength in many of those games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxForce2 Posted September 18, 2021 Author Share Posted September 18, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, SoxBlanco said: Was there any doubt we’d have an early sac fly in the game tonight after this thread was created? Or that we'd hit so many doubles. Edited September 18, 2021 by FoxForce2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 13 hours ago, Dan Pasqua said: Just look at our record vs teams above .500 and you will find out who we really are imo Did you just pick a random thread to say this in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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