Romy our 2nd baseman of the future?

[ChiSox59]

There is next to no chance Leury isn’t on this team next yeS. My guess: 2/$7M early in the offseason will work for both sides. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

There is next to no chance Leury isn’t on this team next yeS. My guess: 2/$7M early in the offseason will work for both sides. 

Hypothetically...if the CBA forces a bunch of teams to meet a $100 million payroll, guys who are decent major leaguers who won't require long, multi-year deals could be in heavy demand because they can get you above the payroll limit and still be tradeable at the deadline. There's 12 teams in that range this year, so this could actually matter a lot.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

There is next to no chance Leury isn’t on this team next yeS. My guess: 2/$7M early in the offseason will work for both sides. 

Not a chance. Either another year or another 2-3 million on the AAV. Something like 2/10 with a club option feels likely.

[mqr]

On 9/19/2021 at 12:18 AM, Balta1701 said:

I don’t disagree, but let’s imagine the payroll limit is $150 million next year. Bring back Lopez and Engel and they are already over that. So resign Leury and you have to remove $10 million from the payroll for scraps. Who do you drop to save Leury? Perhaps the payroll limit is much higher, but that’s the worst case scenario. 

What happens if someone offers Leury 3/$15? Would you match that?

Fwiw I think the budget will be closer to 180 than 150

[GreenSox]

On 9/19/2021 at 10:12 AM, Timmy U said:

I was referring to thoughts on this board that they should shift Yoan back to second. I don’t think anyone is considering trading Moncada during the competitive window.

I think the Sox should be competitive each year, if properly managed.  And that might require trading players before their decline.   And if there is a window, I hope it's long after 8 years in the wilderness.

[turnin' two]

2 hours ago, mqr said:

Fwiw I think the budget will be closer to 180 than 150

Is this based on anything, or more like a feeling?  I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just don't know if I missed something.

[turnin' two]

As for 2B, I don't know if it is Romy, but I think between him, Yogurt and Popeye, they have a couple interesting options, and some sweet names.  Actually I guess I hope its Yogurt, since we have lost Eaton and Lamb.  We need to restock the cupboard.

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Is this based on anything, or more like a feeling?  I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just don't know if I missed something.

It's already at ~150 for next year assuming they pick up the two options which I think they will, pretty sure the arb and pre-arb guys will take them over 160 

Edited September 20, 2021 by mqr

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

As for 2B, I don't know if it is Romy, but I think between him, Yogurt and Popeye, they have a couple interesting options, and some sweet names.  Actually I guess I hope its Yogurt, since we have lost Eaton and Lamb.  We need to restock the cupboard.

Be it Romy, Yogurt, Popeye, Montgomery - I'll take whoever can close that revolving door.

Since Iguchi left, we've had the great Getz vs. Nix debate, only for it to be settled by moving Beckham to second base. Then after he was there for four years, we haven't had the same starting second baseman two years in a row:

2014: Semien - 
2015: Johnson
2016: Lawrie
2017: Saladino
2018: Moncada
2019: Sanchez
2020: Leury
2021: Madrigal

Mendick is the only person we've debated as a long-term solution who hasn't gotten to start an opening day.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

8 minutes ago, Quin said:

Be it Romy, Yogurt, Popeye, Montgomery - I'll take whoever can close that revolving door.

Since Iguchi left, we've had the great Getz vs. Nix debate, only for it to be settled by moving Beckham to second base. Then after he was there for four years, we haven't had the same starting second baseman two years in a row:

2014: Semien - 
2015: Johnson
2016: Lawrie
2017: Saladino
2018: Moncada
2019: Sanchez
2020: Leury
2021: Madrigal

Mendick is the only person we've debated as a long-term solution who hasn't gotten to start an opening day.

I really thought Micah Johnson was going to be a DUDE... oops

[ChiSox59]

8 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Not a chance. Either another year or another 2-3 million on the AAV. Something like 2/10 with a club option feels likely.

I’d take the under on $5M AAV. But lol At “not a chance” at $7M and then you quote $1.5M AAV higher hahaha. Obviously that real money to you and I, but basically nothing in the scope of a big league team. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I’d take the under on $5M AAV. But lol At “not a chance” at $7M and then you quote $1.5M AAV higher hahaha. Obviously that real money to you and I, but basically nothing in the scope of a big league team. 

I'm just saying that Leury isn't going to accept that deal. I have no idea what the final deal will be, teams are increasingly, especially the Sox, coming up with a lot of creative ways to incentive the deals for both sides. If he takes my proposed deal I'd assume there is some sort of vesting option at 300 PA or so for 2024 for 7 million additional to take the AAV up to around 5.75M.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm just saying that Leury isn't going to accept that deal. I have no idea what the final deal will be, teams are increasingly, especially the Sox, coming up with a lot of creative ways to incentive the deals for both sides. If he takes my proposed deal I'd assume there is some sort of vesting option at 300 PA or so for 2024 for 7 million additional to take the AAV up to around 5.75M.

I think you’re getting just a tad ahead of yourself. Leury is still just a 3 fWAR player over 2000+ PA. I don’t think anyone is paying him handsomely in free agency, and I think he’d love to stay with the Sox. 

We’ll see how it shakes out. Hope he sticks around tho cause he’s useful. I’d probably pass for over $5M AAV tho. 

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I really thought Micah Johnson was going to be a PAINTER

Fixed.

[FriendlyNorthsider]

11 hours ago, mqr said:

It's already at ~150 for next year assuming they pick up the two options which I think they will, pretty sure the arb and pre-arb guys will take them over 160 

To go a little further...

Guys due for a raise in 2022:

Abreu 2M, Anderson 2,25M, Moncada 7M, Eloy 3M, Robert 2.5M, Lynn 9.2M, Liam 2M, Bummer 500k, Gio (Arb 2), Lopez (Arb 2), Engel (Arb 2), Goodwin (Arb 3)

The Sox save 1M on deferred Konerko money, 7.75M on Eaton, 1M on Herrera, and about 1.25M combined on Madrigal, Lamb, Burdi, and Gonzalez. 

So that's 28.5M in scheduled raises (not including arb)  against 11M in dead money, leaving the Sox +17.5M in payroll. The most significant Arb raise will be Gio and conservatively the arb raises will push the Sox payroll up over 20M more than last year without any new additions.

The Sox have Leury (3.5M), Hamilton 1.25M, Rodon 3M, Tepera (800K) entering UFA and Marshall (2M), Fry (860k), and Mike Wright (570k) as arb guys that likely wont be retained. That's around 12M in savings from this year, but includes a top SP, a high-end 7th inning guy, a quality 4th or 5th outfielder, and a solid utility guy. 

If the Sox stay in-house for the rotation and go Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech/Lopez, the rotation wont cost another dime. It'll certainly be a step back, but would still be well above average. 

Then comes the team options. The Sox own team options on Kimbrel (16M) and Cesar (6M) who are essentially replacing pre-arb guys in Heuer and Madrigal from at least half of the 2021 payroll. 

If both were retained the team would look like this:

C Grandal
1B Abreu
2B- Hernandez
SS- Anderson
3B- Moncada
LF- Eloy
CF= Robert
RF-Vaughn
DH- Sheets

The bench would be Burger, Engel, Goodwin, Collins, Romy and FA (probably Leury again)

Pitching
SP-1 Lynn
SP-2 Giolito
SP-3 Cease
SP-4 Keuchel
SP-5 Kopech
 

Bullpen:

Lopez, Bummer, Burr, Ruiz, Crochet, Kimbrel, Hendricks and probably a Tepera-esque 7th inning guy.

Lets put the Tepera and Leury replacements as $5M and that's 153M before factoring in the ARB money for Gio, Lopez, Engel, and Goodwin. That will probably be around $12M in salary as a general guess, putting the Sox at 165M for the above team. This team would be objectively worse than the 2021 team and would have less depth. 

If the Sox are going to increase payroll from 141M to 181M then it makes sense to pick up both options. If the plan is to keep payroll at $165, then I think their is a serious question about whether the Sox should either decline the options or trade Kimbrel/Hernandez depending on the market. Going into 2022 with Romy/Leury at 2nd may be the better option.

For the Sox to full capitalize on this window the payroll needs to go up. The core is getting more and more expensive every year and there aren't too many impact in house guys ready to contribute by 2022-23. 

 

 

 

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I'm trying to figure out how the Sox can get Lux without giving up Crochet.  I don't think Kimbrel and one of the young pitchers gets it done.  

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

35 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'm trying to figure out how the Sox can get Lux without giving up Crochet.  I don't think Kimbrel and one of the young pitchers gets it done.  

You think Lux is available?  Heck, if Crochet is truly just going to be a RP for us (I don't see another option at this point), I'd trade think about him for Lux.

I'd love him as a reclamation project.  Have you heard of interest?

Edited September 22, 2021 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[Harold's Leg Lift]

36 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

You think Lux is available?  Heck, if Crochet is truly just going to be a RP for us (I don't see another option at this point), I'd trade think about him for Lux.

I'd love him as a reclamation project.  Have you heard of interest?

 Lux availablity will depend on what the Dodgers do with Seager but even if he walks and they move Turner to SS they have a 2B in AA who is close to major league ready. Jansens contract is up this year so they will be loking for a closer and the Sox have long had interest in Gav. 

[FoxForce2]

Trading equal quality pitching potential for equal quality hitting/fielding is 'usually' the wrong choice.
Re: Occam's razor.