South Side Hit Men Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The unprecedented 2021 season (162 games from 60) is taking a toll on most teams. People are upset about the Kimbrel trade (either the prospects given and/or his performance), but his drop off in performance and velocity is likely due, at least in part, to hitting a wall at this stage of the season. They will have to walk a tight rope in the playoffs this year, but hopefully all the pitchers below will be at full strength in 2022. (All innings include majors + minor league & college innings/games, if applicable) Pitchers with significant increases in workload 2021 vs. 2020 + 2019 Rodon 127.2, 7.2 & 34.2 Keuchel 151.1, 63.1 & 112.2 Kimbrel 55.2, 15.1 & 20.2 Cease 156.1, 58.1 & 73.0 Kopech 61.0, None Pitchers with an adequate baseline 2021 vs. 2020 + 2019 Giolito 167.2, 72.1 & 176.2 Lynn 146.0, 84.0 & 208.1 Lopez 87.0, 26.1 & 184.0 Hendriks 64.0, 25.1 & 85.0 Crochet 49.2, 9.1 & 65.0 Bummer 51.0, 9.1 & 75.1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FriendlyNorthsider Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 50 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: The unprecedented 2021 season (162 games from 60) is taking a toll on most teams. People are upset about the Kimbrel trade (either the prospects given and/or his performance), but his drop off in performance and velocity is likely due, at least in part, to hitting a wall at this stage of the season. They will have to walk a tight rope in the playoffs this year, but hopefully all the pitchers below will be at full strength in 2022. (All innings include majors + minor league & college innings/games, if applicable) Pitchers with significant increases in workload 2021 vs. 2020 + 2019 Rodon 127.2, 7.2 & 34.2 Keuchel 151.1, 63.1 & 112.2 Kimbrel 55.2, 15.1 & 20.2 Cease 156.1, 58.1 & 73.0 Kopech 61.0, None Pitchers with an adequate baseline 2021 vs. 2020 + 2019 Giolito 167.2, 72.1 & 176.2 Lynn 146.0, 84.0 & 208.1 Lopez 87.0, 26.1 & 184.0 Hendriks 64.0, 25.1 & 85.0 Crochet 49.2, 9.1 & 65.0 Bummer 51.0, 9.1 & 75.1 Crochet's innings and usage are interesting as well. In his first 19 appearances he went 2.0 IP or more 5 times including a season-high 3 IP and averaged 20 pitches per appearance. In the next 29 appearances, he went 2 IP only once and averaged 16 pitches per appearance. After the way last year ended, it makes sense to keep Crochet fresh for the playoffs. He wont likely be needed for multi-inning relief performances this year with the depth of the pen. That said, this year has really solidified that Crochet will at least start 2022 in the bullpen. If Kopech moves to the rotation and Kimbrel gets moved or has his option declined, I could see the Sox moving Crochet to a multi-inning high-leverage role next year. That would maybe open up 2023 as a year to at least consider letting Crochet start. Another big question in hindsight is whether implementing a six-man rotation around the ASB would've been the right move. The Sox main advantage over the other AL teams at this point is that they don't have anybody on their tails. As it is, the Sox are probably not getting HFA for the ALDS anyway, so whether they finished with 95 wins or 90 wins they'd be in the same spot come early October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted September 21, 2021 Author Share Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said: Crochet's innings and usage are interesting as well. In his first 19 appearances he went 2.0 IP or more 5 times including a season-high 3 IP and averaged 20 pitches per appearance. In the next 29 appearances, he went 2 IP only once and averaged 16 pitches per appearance. After the way last year ended, it makes sense to keep Crochet fresh for the playoffs. He wont likely be needed for multi-inning relief performances this year with the depth of the pen. That said, this year has really solidified that Crochet will at least start 2022 in the bullpen. If Kopech moves to the rotation and Kimbrel gets moved or has his option declined, I could see the Sox moving Crochet to a multi-inning high-leverage role next year. That would maybe open up 2023 as a year to at least consider letting Crochet start. Another big question in hindsight is whether implementing a six-man rotation around the ASB would've been the right move. The Sox main advantage over the other AL teams at this point is that they don't have anybody on their tails. As it is, the Sox are probably not getting HFA for the ALDS anyway, so whether they finished with 95 wins or 90 wins they'd be in the same spot come early October. Yes, I posted in June and July I posted the hope the Sox would consider a 6 man rotation for 4-6 + weeks, and then transition back sometime after Labor Day to allow pitchers to return to regular rest for the playoffs. They picked spots for guys when needed, but having 1-2 Lopez and a trade deadline pickup or second callup would have helped manage the innings, and possibly could have held off Rodon's recent drastic decline. Also wanted a set up guy and a multi inning guy picked up at the deadline. Cheap in terms of cost (trade and salary), but the Sox went all in on Kimbrel, who may bounce back next season but is likely running out of gas at this point. Thought the Kimbrel trade would have made more sense if it freed Kopech to stretch out more for this year and beyond, but that didn't happen. Heuer is a really good pick up for your team, and can pitch high leverage innings if ownership wants to contend over the next few years. Madrigal is another good cost controlled piece, his ability to stay healthy the main concern. He should do well in the NL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35thstreetswarm Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Despite his innings increase, Kopech doesn’t look like he’s running out of gas at all. He’s had his issues, but fatigue doesn’t seem to be one of them. Dude is throwing smoke. I’m hopeful he will have a big impact in the playoffs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Can we get some Grandal analysis tho? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Can we get some Grandal analysis tho? Here’s some anaylsis: he’s been really good this year and one of the hottest hitters in baseball since coming off the IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Just now, manbearpuig said: Here’s some anaylsis: he’s been really good this year and one of the hottest hitters in baseball since coming off the IL. Touche! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyWhiteSox Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, manbearpuig said: Here’s some anaylsis: he’s been really good this year and one of the hottest hitters in baseball since coming off the IL. If you wanna go more in-depth, he also wears red wristbands and armbands. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted September 21, 2021 Author Share Posted September 21, 2021 4 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said: Despite his innings increase, Kopech doesn’t look like he’s running out of gas at all. He’s had his issues, but fatigue doesn’t seem to be one of them. Dude is throwing smoke. I’m hopeful he will have a big impact in the playoffs. They managed his workload well, but to do so he shifted from multi inning / spot start outings to mostly 1 inning outings. April - May: 9 Appearances 2-5 innings 5 Appearances under 2 innings July - September: 4 Appearances 2-2 1/3 innings 22 Appearances 1/3- 1 1/3 innings The Sox never publicly disclosed Kopech’s innings target this season. Perhaps he can pitch 1-2 + innings in the playoffs. He’ll need to expand from his reliever arsenal of fastball slider when he transitions to a starter role. Cease also hasn’t seen a dramatic drop off in performance. Hopefully the Sox will be able to trust him to take the mound in October, something they weren’t willing to do last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: Cease also hasn’t seen a dramatic drop off in performance. Hopefully the Sox will be able to trust him to take the mound in October, something they weren’t willing to do last year. Absolutely. He's had some inconsistency, but he's been...consistently inconsistent in that Dylan Cease way. And I know it's still early in his career and injuries (or lack thereof) can have a luck element to them, but I get a sense that Cease may have the makings of pretty durable pitcher. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxsi75 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 10 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said: The unprecedented 2021 season (162 games from 60) is taking a toll on most teams. People are upset about the Kimbrel trade (either the prospects given and/or his performance), but his drop off in performance and velocity is likely due, at least in part, to hitting a wall at this stage of the season. They will have to walk a tight rope in the playoffs this year, but hopefully all the pitchers below will be at full strength in 2022. (All innings include majors + minor league & college innings/games, if applicable) Pitchers with significant increases in workload 2021 vs. 2020 + 2019 Rodon 127.2, 7.2 & 34.2 Keuchel 151.1, 63.1 & 112.2 Kimbrel 55.2, 15.1 & 20.2 Cease 156.1, 58.1 & 73.0 Kopech 61.0, None Pitchers with an adequate baseline 2021 vs. 2020 + 2019 Giolito 167.2, 72.1 & 176.2 Lynn 146.0, 84.0 & 208.1 Lopez 87.0, 26.1 & 184.0 Hendriks 64.0, 25.1 & 85.0 Crochet 49.2, 9.1 & 65.0 Bummer 51.0, 9.1 & 75.1 Shouldn't Houston also have to "walk a tight rope in the playoffs" as well? Valdez and Garcia have each blown away the most innings they've ever pitched in a season. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted September 21, 2021 Author Share Posted September 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said: Shouldn't Houston also have to "walk a tight rope in the playoffs" as well? Valdez and Garcia have each blown away the most innings they've ever pitched in a season. You need to count minor league innings as well, both are within 36 innings of their 2019. That said, most teams will have pitchers, especially younger pitchers or veterans with prior year injuries (or in Kimbrel and Keuchel's case, 2019 FA collusion lockouts), hitting a wall. Rodon and Cease's bumps are much higher over a three year span. Garcia 144.1, 12.1 & 108.2 Valdez 130.0, 70.2 & 115.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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