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Why isn't Luis Robert hitting 3rd?


VAfan

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Luis Robert is the White Sox best hitter at the moment.  That is clear. 

In the last 7, 14, and 28 days, his OPS is well over 1.000.  Even Yasmani Grandal is not in that stratosphere.

So it's quite clear that Robert needs to hit in one of the top 3 spots in the order, if only to make sure he gets a 4th, 5th, or 6th AB in a game.  

But, the White Sox are not going to take Tim Anderson out of the leadoff spot.  Tim isn't the Sox best hitter, but he went 9-14 in the Oakland series last year, saved the Field of Dreams game, had a monster game in the division clincher, and definitely seems to rise to the occasion. 

So the only real question is whether to hit Yoan Moncada 2nd and slide Robert to 3rd, or to have Robert hit 2nd and have Moncada slide to 6th. 

The value of Moncada as a hitter is that he takes pitches and gets on base.  His overall .375 OBP is 3rd behind only Grandal (.414) and Robert (.387).  So that suggests he should hit second. 

He also has speed, so he's not going to clog the bases between Anderson and Robert.

Because he can take pitches and hit with 2 strikes, he has the patience that would allow Anderson to run if he's on.  Robert, on the other hand, is super aggressive and swings more than just about anyone else in baseball.  

Moncada's splits also show he's done best batting 3rd or 5th, but his third best slot has been hitting 2nd.  He's hit much worse in the 6 or 4 hole.  

Putting Moncada second also gives the Sox better L-R balance through the lineup.

Anderson, Moncada, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, Jimenez, Sheets (or Garcia), Vaughn (or Engel if healthy), Garcia.  That's R, S, R, R, S, R, L (or S), R, S.  

With Anderson, Moncada and Robert 1, 2, 3, the Sox could run more if they need to manufacture a run.  TLR hasn't run them much this year so far to save wear and tear.  He might unleash them in the postseason.  This puts the fastest players at the top of the lineup, and if Garcia is 9th, that's 4 speed guys connected in the lineup.  

I think Robert should hit 3rd, and that should be his long-term slot on the White Sox.  Abreu can still drive in runs as the clean up guy, or walk and let Grandal and Jimenez drive him in.  

What do you think?

 

 

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One thing about Robert is that he's only now completing a full major league season and spread over two years at that. At this point in his career, I prefer Robert at either #2 or #5, but as a lot of scouts and analysts have said - a manager can hit Robert in almost any slot with good results.
Lineup construction has been a hot topic ever since the advent of Sabermetrics which significantly alters the more traditional lineup placeholders and the traits one wants in each slot. The arguments about the topic continue and there are some people that provide long term stats showing that there really isn't much difference between traditional batting orders and Metric-tweaked lineups. 
There are numerous sites that go through all this and the OP has probably seen them, but this is a betting site that lays out a few of the ideas on the subject:
  https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/strategy/batting-order-sabermetrics/

 

Edited by FoxForce2
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I love TA, but there are better leadoff options given his .330 OBP. TA is the 5th best hitter based on wRC+ (excluding Engel due to sample size). He shouldn't be leading off. Yoan and Robert are easily better candidates. See below for my lineup. 

Yoan

Robert

Grandal

Abreu

TA

Eloy

Sheets

Vaughn

Hernandez

Edited by ron883
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TA doesn't have the OBP for me to be a leadoff guy, he also doesn't work counts or take walks. He is the prototypical #2 hitter.  He can hit the ball anywhere on the field, which is ideal in the 2 spot. 

Luis right now for me would be a better leadoff guy as he's probably the 2nd fastest guy on the team who has the OBP to be a successful leadoff guy.  He also can hit leadoff HRs like TA if he feels like it. 

Ideally I would put Luis in the 3 spot but seniority dictates lineup construction or something.  Abreu would be driving in more runs hitting 4th with TA > Moncada > Robert than he does currently, by hitting 3rd

 

Edited by joesaiditstrue
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If you look at the splits and ignore where guys have been hitting, it should go like this:

vs RHP: Moncada, Robert, Grandal, Jimenez, Abreu, Anderson

vs LHP: Anderson, Robert, Grandal, Abrueu, Moncada, Jimenez

That said, I don't think 10 days before the fist playoff game is the right time to be moving Anderson out of leadoff or Abreu out of 3rd given how long they've occupied those spots. So, I'd go with this for now:

vs RHP: Anderson, Moncada, Abreu, Grandal, Robert, Jimenez

vs LHP: Anderson, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, Jimenez, Moncada

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9 hours ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Abreu will never not hit 3rd with TLR here. 

Except he didn't hit 3rd at the beginning of the year.  He played 56 games this year hitting 4th.  I guess I should have read down the thread before posting this!

As for the comments about TA, my main counter would be that TA hits differently in big games.  Last year against Oakland, he was 9-14, far and away the best on the team.  Look at the Field of Dreams game.  Or look at the other day in the clinching game against Cleveland.  He's the energetic table setter for this offense.  Plus, he can run.  

Edited by VAfan
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To me that best lineup is

Against RHP

R SS TA
S 3B Moncada
R CF Robert
R 1B Abreu
S  C Grandal
R LF Eloy
L DH Sheets
R RF Vaughn/Engel
S 2B Hernandez

Against LHP

R SS TA
R CF Robert
R 1B Abreu
S C Grandal
R LF Eloy
S 3B Moncada
R DH Vaughn
R RF Engel
S 2B Hernandez
 

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31 minutes ago, raBBit said:

To me that best lineup is

Against RHP

R SS TA
S 3B Moncada
R CF Robert
R 1B Abreu
S  C Grandal
R LF Eloy
L DH Sheets
R RF Vaughn/Engel
S 2B Hernandez

Against LHP

R SS TA
R CF Robert
R 1B Abreu
S C Grandal
R LF Eloy
S 3B Moncada
R DH Vaughn
R RF Engel
S 2B Hernandez
 

Not too big on the Jimenez ride I see. Leury's been hitting quite well in September.

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10 hours ago, ron883 said:

I love TA, but there are better leadoff options given his .330 OBP. TA is the 5th best hitter based on wRC+ (excluding Engel due to sample size). He shouldn't be leading off. Yoan and Robert are easily better candidates. See below for my lineup. 

Yoan

Robert

Grandal

Abreu

TA

Eloy

Sheets

Vaughn

Hernandez

Yeah but at this stage of the season, it's highly unlikely that TA moves off the #1 in the playoffs. Team chemistry and the interaction of personalities is a variable that shouldn't be overlooked. Over the course of a full season (next year),  I'd approach TA with the notion of him batting #3 and slotting the Yoan that we've seen this year as the #1. I'd hit Yas #5 in your lineup. Obviously, Left-Right matchups and a case of who's hot and who's not would factor in as well.

Edited by FoxForce2
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31 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

Yeah but at this stage of the season, it's highly unlikely that TA moves off the #1 in the playoffs. Team chemistry and the interaction of personalities is a variable that shouldn't be overlooked. Over the course of a full season (next year),  I'd approach TA with the notion of him batting #3 and slotting the Yoan that we've seen this year as the #1. I'd hit Yas #5 in your lineup. Obviously, Left-Right matchups and a case of who's hot and who's not would factor in as well.

I just think with Grandal's OBP and how hot his bat has been, it's silly not to have him at 3. Abreu is Mr. RBI, so putting Grandal in front of him makes sense. 

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2 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I just think with Grandal's OBP and how hot his bat has been, it's silly not to have him at 3. Abreu is Mr. RBI, so putting Grandal in front of him makes sense. 

From a batting POV, you've got a good point, but have you seen Yas run lately? lol

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