Difficult To Assess This Series

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I mean, I think you could make an argument Cease would be the Astros 2nd best SP.  

I think you could lump him with any of their guys outside McCullers.  

[35thstreetswarm]

5 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

yeah, it's not even particularly close.  Garcia (rookie), Valdez (LHP), Urquidy, meh.  

 

I think we have the starting pitching advantage in literally every game except whichever one Cease pitches (push).  

I'm not sure about that -- who is the Astros 4th starter who matches up with the guy who's #3 in strikeouts in the AL?  I'd take Dylan every time.

[BigHurt3515]

It always seems like a good playoff run has an unexpected guy play well. My guess; Gavin Sheets 

[mqr]

Just now, BigHurt3515 said:

It always seems like a good playoff run has an unexpected guy play well. My guess; Gavin Sheets 

Gavin Sheets has the air of a guy who is going to hit an enormous dinger at some point

[hankchifan]

2 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

if the Sox can't prevent runners from stealing, well they're gonna need to really have some dominant SP

And hit into that LF porch a few times.

[hankchifan]

2 hours ago, Colome's Hat said:

Sox are clicking on all cylinders coming into this.  Key guys in the bullpen have been lights out.  Yeah they lost yesterday but come on, ReyLO was pitching the ninth and they pinch hit for their two best players with a runner on.  I really like where we are at.  Astros, while they have won 2 in a row, have struggled as of late.  

I think we split the first two games in Houston.  We win whichever game Gio pitches.  But I don't think the Astros can touch us at home.  I think we win in 4.  It's a tough series and it's pretty evenly matched but on paper, the White Sox do have the edge in just about every category.

Except in HFA which could be the difference.

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Rodon is such a big question mark to me, i have to agree that the pitching matchups are more even then im comfortable with

Rodon is a big question mark to me too.  I frankly don't expect much from him, but know Kopech will be there to piggyback him.  But he will also likely finish top 3 in AL Cy Young, and let's not act like Garcia, Valdez and Urquidy are suddenly aces.  

[ChiSox59]

13 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I think you could lump him with any of their guys outside McCullers.  

Yeah, I mean you don't have a whole lot to support that other than just apparently not being a big believer in Cease.  Garcia I could see being about a toss up with Cease as he's had a nice season, but Ks way fewer people than Cease.  Pretty easy nod for Cease over Urquidy, Valdez and/or Odorizzi based on stuff and stats.  

Edited October 4, 2021 by ChiSox59

[chitownsportsfan]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Rodon is a big question mark to me too.  I frankly don't expect much from him, but know Kopech will be there to piggyback him.  But he will also likely finish top 3 in AL Cy Young, and let's not act like Garcia, Valdez and Urquidy are suddenly aces.  

I just really hope ropech can give them 6 innings of 3 run ball in game 3 or whatever. I do like how they plan on using the two, it's the best you can do given that Rodon's shoulder is just shot and at best he might be able to give you 4 good innings.

[hankchifan]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Larussa didn't even try for Homefield advantage.. Gotta love it

TLR may live to regret. it.  I think it was a big blunder not to go for HFA.  Hope I am wrong.

[reiks12]

21 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Rodon is a big question mark to me too.  I frankly don't expect much from him, but know Kopech will be there to piggyback him.  But he will also likely finish top 3 in AL Cy Young, and let's not act like Garcia, Valdez and Urquidy are suddenly aces.  

Im not expecting them to be aces, but i think McCuckers is going to give us fits. Outside of that I am not too concerned and anything can happen

[kleedawg]

28 minutes ago, mqr said:

Gavin Sheets has the air of a guy who is going to hit an enormous dinger at some point

Cesar Hernandez is my surprise pick to click.

[reiks12]

30 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

It always seems like a good playoff run has an unexpected guy play well. My guess; Gavin Sheets 

Leury redemption arc incoming

[hogan873]

The Sox don't need guys to play above their potential to win the series.  If the starting pitching is good enough to keep them in each game (maybe better in one game that shuts down the Astros) and guys like TA, Abreu, Moncada, Robert, and Eloy play like their capable, the Sox have a real chance to win the series, even without HFA.  But if one of more of the core guys goes cold for the series or a starter has a really bad start, it'll be tough to win the series.

As others have mentioned, winning one in Houston is almost a must-have.

My gut says the series goes 5 games, and game 5 is similar to game 4 of the 2005 WS.  Great pitching that shuts down both offenses.  Someone sneaks a run or two late.

Game 1 - Sox
Game 2 - Astros
Game 3 - Astros
Game 4 - Sox
Game 5 - ....

[Chicago White Sox]

Man I hope Rodon doesn’t miss this series.  Lynn has been very bad against the Astros and it would have been awesome to potentially throw Giolito + Carlos in three of the five games.

[Balta1701]

33 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

The Sox don't need guys to play above their potential to win the series.  If the starting pitching is good enough to keep them in each game (maybe better in one game that shuts down the Astros) and guys like TA, Abreu, Moncada, Robert, and Eloy play like their capable, the Sox have a real chance to win the series, even without HFA.  But if one of more of the core guys goes cold for the series or a starter has a really bad start, it'll be tough to win the series.

As others have mentioned, winning one in Houston is almost a must-have.

My gut says the series goes 5 games, and game 5 is similar to game 4 of the 2005 WS.  Great pitching that shuts down both offenses.  Someone sneaks a run or two late.

Game 1 - Sox
Game 2 - Astros
Game 3 - Astros
Game 4 - Sox
Game 5 - ....

I mean, the problem is the Astros can literally say the same thing - they don't need to play above their potential either. Their offense is good enough to keep them in games and if they get a starting or bullpen performance or two, they can push into a lead. That's why this is a difficult series to assess.

[pcq]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I think you could lump him with any of their guys outside McCullers.  

Houston has the advantage. Cannot count on Gio and Cease to be calm and cool. I want Big B to open and we have to hit the lefty Valdez on Friday.

[tray]

 

Cesar Hernandez has been pretty dismal at the plate since the Sox acquired him. Even his splits against RH pitching are not that good.. If only the Sox had a healthy Nick Madrigal in the line-up instead of Hernandez the prospects for this series might be different..  Cubs say  "thanks Hahn" for that trade. I was furious when I first heard about it and still am.

Maybe Tony will start Leury at second and Vaughn in RF. At least Vaughn could get lucky and connect for a HR against a RH starter. Hernandez just gives away too much offense , even at the bottom of the order. He should not be back next season..

As far as our starters,  Rodon might be the guy who dominates a game like he did earlier in the season. His stuff looked like Chris Sale for a while this year. He could shut down the 'stros for blackout game 3 while Eloy and Luis pound out a few HR.

I am surprised that Sox pitchers have not been slide stepping ,throwing to first, and calling for pitch outs to keep runners from stealing. The Stros could run us out of the series unless they get caught stealing a few times.

[ShoeLessRob]

Cesar Hernandez looks like he’s swinging a bat way heavy for him. 

[pcq]

9 minutes ago, pcq said:

Houston has the advantage. Cannot count on Gio and Cease to be calm and cool. I want Big B to open and we have to hit the lefty Valdez on Friday.

Sox have to win one in Houston because Houston does not plan on getting swept in Chicago.

Fox Sports

AL DIVISION SERIES

White Sox vs. Astros (Game 1: Thursday)

Jake's pick: White Sox
Pedro's pick: Astros
Jordan's pick: Astros
Ben's pick: White Sox

 

[bighurt574]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

How do you figure? McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy and Valdez are a very clear and somewhat significant step down from the Sox top 4. 

 

Not really.  Look at the numbers.  They've having strong years, including some nice outings against us.  If Rodon was healthy, maybe.

Edited October 4, 2021 by bighurt574

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

 

Not really.  Look at the numbers.  They've having strong years.  If Rodon was healthy, maybe.

I have looked at the numbers.  2 of our guys are going to finish top 5 in the AL Cy Young.  Another guy is Giolito.  Another guy is Cease who just finished 3rd in the league in Ks.

The Astros have a rock solid McCullers, an overachieving rookie who had a very nice year in Garcia, and 3 backend types in Urquidy, Valdez and Odorizzi who strike just about zero fear in me.  The Sox SP is measurably better than the Astros in both the numbers you are referring to, and stuff.  Now are we going to get the A versions of Rodon and Lynn?  Probably not.  But the Astros SP hasn't been great for the last month either. 

[CentralChamps21]

This series will be won by the team with the manager who turned a blind eye to blatant steroid use while one of his players broke the single season home run record.

[bighurt574]

17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I have looked at the numbers.  2 of our guys are going to finish top 5 in the AL Cy Young.  Another guy is Giolito.  Another guy is Cease who just finished 3rd in the league in Ks.

The Astros have a rock solid McCullers, an overachieving rookie who had a very nice year in Garcia, and 3 backend types in Urquidy, Valdez and Odorizzi who strike just about zero fear in me.  The Sox SP is measurably better than the Astros in both the numbers you are referring to, and stuff.  Now are we going to get the A versions of Rodon and Lynn?  Probably not.  But the Astros SP hasn't been great for the last month either. 

 

The Rodon who is going to get some Cy Young votes is long gone.

I don't care about Odorizzi, or Greinke, though they may prove useful for HOU at some point.  McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy, and Valdez is a pretty solid top 4, and they've all given us some fits this year.  I saw the stat above that our pitching has been a half run better than HOU's over the past month, but they seemingly had a tougher schedule too, with a bunch of games against SEA, OAK, and TB.  So take from that what you will.  

[ChiSox59]

24 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

 

The Rodon who is going to get some Cy Young votes is long gone.

I don't care about Odorizzi, or Greinke, though they may prove useful for HOU at some point.  McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy, and Valdez is a pretty solid top 4, and they've all given us some fits this year.  I saw the stat above that our pitching has been a half run better than HOU's over the past month, but they seemingly had a tougher schedule too, with a bunch of games against SEA, OAK, and TB.  So take from that what you will.  

I agree its a solid top 4 and that the A version of Rodon is long gone. BUt just on a match-up by match-up basis, at worst you're looking at this.

Giolito = McCullers

Lynn >>>>> Garcia

Cease >>>> Urquidy

Rodon = Valdez/Odorizzi (being generous to Houston here with Rodon's questionable health, though Kopech as a piggyback certainly needs to be considered too)