MLB 2021-2 off season thread

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I have him at a 3.7 WAR for 2021, he has had multiple ~4 WAR+ seasons (one 6+, when he received 13 MVP votes), and is in fact a two-time all-star.  He could be the same player as Cesar Hernandez or Leury Garcia, but it would be a fairly dramatic departure from all three players' known histories for that to happen.  

Must be bWAR.  

The point with players in their thirties isn’t the back of their baseball card anymore, but what can they produce going forward. 
 

Is he going to be 2-3x more productive than Cesar or Leury in 2022 when you compare their respective sticker prices?

Edited November 30, 2021 by caulfield12

[35thstreetswarm]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Must be bWAR.

Choose your WAR—he’s historically outperformed Hernandez and Garcia in all.

[almagest]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Leury had the same amount of AB's last year and stretched out his production equally in those extra 90+ AB's, he would have been worth roughly 2.4 fWAR. Jean Segura was worth 2.5 fWAR. 

I think Soxtalk has overvalued Jean Segura. From one person calling him an All-Star type player, to others thinking he's a huge upgrade. Segura could very easily be the same player as Leury Garcia/Cesar Hernandez. 

2.2 bWAR vs 3.7 for Segura. Segura is also a better hitter vs. righties and a MUCH better hitter vs. lefties. Leury also struggles vs. ground ball pitchers - Segura is 100 OPS points higher. Leury also grades out as below average at 2B from what I've seen - Segura is a solid defensive 2B.

I don't think Segura is an amazing upgrade, but he's good, consistent, and he competently fills a hole that the Sox have left open. I don't think its a guarantee that Leury hits 2 WAR again, either.

[35thstreetswarm]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Must be bWAR.  

The point with players in their thirties isn’t the back of their baseball card anymore, but what can they produce going forward. 

Jean Segura:  31

Cesar Hernandez:  31

Leury Garcia:  30

[chw42]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

2.2 bWAR vs 3.7 for Segura. Segura is also a better hitter vs. righties and a MUCH better hitter vs. lefties. Leury also struggles vs. ground ball pitchers - Segura is 100 OPS points higher. Leury also grades out as below average at 2B from what I've seen - Segura is a solid defensive 2B.

I don't think Segura is an amazing upgrade, but he's good, consistent, and he competently fills a hole that the Sox have left open. I don't think its a guarantee that Leury hits 2 WAR again, either.

If the Sox get Conforto, I really don't care who ends up hitting 9th. I'll be fine if they get a glove-first 2B. Segura provides a much higher floor than Cesar and Leury. We've seen how bad Cesar can be and we've all learned to hate Leury. OAA also loves Segura, even though he hasn't graded out as well with UZR/DRS. 

[BigHurt3515]

Fully healthy, we are currently worse than what we were last year. 

[whitesoxwinner]

3 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Fully healthy, we are currently worse than what we were last year. 

Don't why you're getting laughs big hurt, on paper we are certainly worse than the start of last year *currently*

Edited November 30, 2021 by whitesoxwinner

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Jean Segura:  31

Cesar Hernandez:  31

Leury Garcia:  30

Jean Segura, 32 opening day.  Long long professional track record.  Until proven otherwise, 32 is the new 34-35 in baseball years.  Exceptions for middle infielders and CFers are becoming increasingly rarer.

And why are we now trading away youth to get older guys when that’s the opposite of how you extend a window?

Edited November 30, 2021 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I have him at a 3.7 WAR for 2021, he has had multiple ~4 WAR+ seasons (one 6+, when he received 13 MVP votes), and is in fact a two-time all-star.  He could be the same player as Cesar Hernandez or Leury Garcia, but it would be a fairly dramatic departure from all three players' known histories for that to happen.  

BRef is definitely a little higher on his value but I'll also say that what 26 and 23 year old Jean Segura did is completely irrelevant from the expectations of 32 year old Jean Segura. I tend to prefer fWAR personally but it doesn't mean your point on the 3.7 is not true or accurate. 

[almagest]

2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

If the Sox get Conforto, I really don't care who ends up hitting 9th. I'll be fine if they get a glove-first 2B. Segura provides a much higher floor than Cesar and Leury. We've seen how bad Cesar can be and we've all learned to hate Leury. OAA also loves Segura, even though he hasn't graded out as well with UZR/DRS. 

Leury is worse at 2B. -2.9 UZR/150.

[35thstreetswarm]

Just now, whitesoxwinner said:

Don't why you're getting laughs big hurt, on paper we are certainly worse than the start of last year *currently*

Because it's November, so -- "duh."  We have only cut players loose and haven't added almost anything yet.  That statement is true for at the beginning of the offseason for essentially every team that didn't just sign a huge free agent yesterday.  2021 is also currently only 11/12ths as long as 2020 was.

[35thstreetswarm]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Jean Segura, 32 opening day.  Long long professional track record.  Until proven otherwise, 32 is the new 34-35 in baseball years.  Exceptions for middle infielders and CFers are becoming increasingly rarer.

OK, Cesar Hernandez, 32 opening day.  Leury Garcia, 31 opening day.  You're missing the point that the three players being compared are essentially the same age, so pointing out the age of one of them as some sort of differentiating factor is wrong.

[HakunaMachado]

Was there some new piece of info on segura, or we are just all resigned to our fate and that is why we are discussing?

[whitesoxwinner]

Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

Because it's November, so -- "duh."  We have only cut players loose and haven't added almost anything yet.  That statement is true for at the beginning of the offseason for essentially every team that didn't just sign a huge free agent yesterday.  2021 is also currently only 11/12ths as long as 2020 was.

 So that's why we said currently

[Flash]

Let's do some business with the Reds. Castillo and Winker would solve a lot of issues. Might have to take on Moustakas contract but he might be serviceable at 2B and insurance for Yoan. 

[hi8is]

2 minutes ago, HakunaMachado said:

Was there some new piece of info on segura, or we are just all resigned to our fate and that is why we are discussing?

Yea no clue - I think that ship sailed.

[Chimpton]

45 minutes ago, soxfan3530 said:

Graveman was announced by the Sox today, FYI.

Sorry I missed that, it still says (report) on the Official Sox MLB page.

[35thstreetswarm]

3 minutes ago, HakunaMachado said:

Was there some new piece of info on segura, or we are just all resigned to our fate and that is why we are discussing?

The latter.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

Leury is worse at 2B. -2.9 UZR/150.

When you are playing 6 positions its hard to keep up on all of them. Put him consistently at 2b he'll be positive. He has mentioned how when he is primary OF he has to just focus on OF in practice, and only starts infield when he gets assigned. That is why sox have periodically tried to focus him as more backup IF but his ability to spot center and corner has always moved him there. 

[kleedawg]

28 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Leury had the same amount of AB's last year and stretched out his production equally in those extra 90+ AB's, he would have been worth roughly 2.4 fWAR. Jean Segura was worth 2.5 fWAR. 

I think Soxtalk has overvalued Jean Segura. From one person calling him an All-Star type player, to others thinking he's a huge upgrade. Segura could very easily be the same player as Leury Garcia/Cesar Hernandez. 

Well not this guy (me), he is a little better than average. While I would love a stud at 2b, its not a necessity for us to get where we want to go. Segura would be a valuable complimentary piece. 

[almagest]

Just now, bmags said:

When you are playing 6 positions its hard to keep up on all of them. Put him consistently at 2b he'll be positive. He has mentioned how when he is primary OF he has to just focus on OF in practice, and only starts infield when he gets assigned. That is why sox have periodically tried to focus him as more backup IF but his ability to spot center and corner has always moved him there. 

That's fair, and he only has 600 or so innings at 2B, but I don't know if I've seen enough from him stats-wise or eye test-wise to say he'd be at least league average. He'll also be 31 when the season starts so he likely will start to decline, and there's less room for that to be acceptable than there is with Segura.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

8 minutes ago, Flash said:

Let's do some business with the Reds. Castillo and Winker would solve a lot of issues. Might have to take on Moustakas contract but he might be serviceable at 2B and insurance for Yoan. 

Wonder what that would cost if the Sox take Moustakas too

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Well not this guy (me), he is a little better than average. While I would love a stud at 2b, its not a necessity for us to get where we want to go. Segura would be a valuable complimentary piece. 

My point on Segura is it's far to possible he's pretty much equal to Leury/Hernandez in value for the Sox to pay him 3 times as much just so they could shed a RP salary. It was my same concern when acquiring Hernandez; that he wasn't a guaranteed upgrade over Leury. 

If you're going to pay someone 15 million you should be getting a guaranteed upgrade over your 5 million dollar options.

[hi8is]

Maybe they’ll end up trading Kimbrel for a solid middle of the pack bullpen piece from a team looking for a closer.

[bmags]

Segura is also much better defensively than Cesar by OAA, and in a test, Jonathan Judge of BP found OAA to be best at measuring infield defense, FRAA for outfield defense (https://www.draysbay.com/2020/4/15/21219514/mlb-defense-best-statistic-baseball-prospectus)

DRS has segura at 5, Hernandez at -11. THat definitely is what it felt like last year. OAA had Segura at 9, Hernandez at 0.

Hernandez also certainly didn't look amazing at 2b last year, and Segura can swing SS. So offensively, I think it's fair that segura and hernandez may be equal. I don't buyy that for defense.