MLB 2021-2 off season thread

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

One thing that is very frustrating to me about this crop of FA 2b is they are not very good defensively. Leury may very well be the best. 2b has been his worst position but he's been played there inconsistently.

It's a rough group.

It is.  Which is why I've succumbed to the Segura move as being option A.  I don't love picking up Kimbrel's option to flip him for a guy making the same amount, but he's probably the best fit ASSUMING the Sox can solve LHB/+ hitter against RHP/decent enough defender in RF.  

Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B, Grandal C, Robert CF, Eloy DH, Conforto RF, Vaughn LF, Segura 2B is a really, really, really good offensive team. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by ChiSox59

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

A "C" by what measure?  Because those moves would result in one of the best and most balanced rosters in baseball.  This is my problem with offseason talk.  Fans get so myopic and wrapped up in grading who had the splashiest offseason and forget that the name of the game is having the best baseball team overall.  It's the reason you can see people unironically say things like "it must be nice to be a Rangers fan..."  No, it's not.

I am not a "Sox can't beat good teams" roof top shouter, and I think the Sox could get better with continued growth... but I also think the idea that if the AL Central gets better the Sox can take a step back by default is very true. The fact is the Sox haven't played good teams very well the last two years. The more good teams they play, if the division improves, the better they need to play in that area. 

Were the Sox "not a playoff" team in other divisions last year? No, I don't buy that. Were they as good as their +160 RD last year though? No, I don't really feel that way either (although this was partly because of a rash of injuries, but the guys that got injured have a history of getting injured)

Fact is, the AL is getting a lot stronger and that means the Sox will have to play better teams. The Sox can't rely on internal development to make up the difference imo. I think the lack of concern about the rotation is crazy. The Sox are going to rely on Reynaldo Lopez next year even if everything goes right with the current starting five. Injuries happen to rotations, and the Sox are not setup well. The Sox have three good starters, 1 question mark, and 1 turd. They're one injury away from having two turds and a big question mark taking up 60% of their staff, or just two turds taking up 40%. The Sox were pretty lucky last year with SP health, in comparison. SP value is going to go up this year as pitchers return to their more normal work load. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chw42]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

If you liked Nick Madrigal, you will like Jean Segura.

Except Segura grades out much better defensively. 

[HOFHurt35]

Pandemic or not, canceling SoxFest was the best move this front office made.

[hi8is]

8 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

have only signed Graveman (if reports are true)

Duplicate - please delete.

Edited November 30, 2021 by hi8is

[almagest]

Segura had an .882 OPS (.313/.379/.503) vs lefties last year, and .738 versus righties (.279/.333/.405). That's not amazing vs. righties, but it's competent, especially for a 9 hole hitter. Including his solid defense this seems like a good move for 2022, with flexibility to look at different options in 2023. No idea if it gets done but I would really like Segura and I don't understand the objections.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

If you liked Nick Madrigal, you will like Jean Segura.

At $14 million more per season and downside approaching…

If you had never heard the name Craig Kimbrel before, you would be a bit befuddled if we had added Segura to this line-up as a FA for the same exact price.

[kleedawg]

24 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Come join me at the soon-to-be Cubstalk subforum. I already talked with Jason about getting it done. It's much more mellow. 

Why are you still here then? Good luck cheering for the lovable losers. 

[hi8is]

27 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Come join me at the soon-to-be Cubstalk subforum. I already talked with Jason about getting it done. It's much more mellow. 

Ummmm… no.

[caulfield12]

Just now, almagest said:

Segura had an .882 OPS (.313/.379/.503) vs lefties last year, and .738 versus righties (.279/.333/.405). That's not amazing vs. righties, but it's competent, especially for a 9 hole hitter. Including his solid defense this seems like a good move for 2022, with flexibility to look at different options in 2023. No idea if it gets done but I would really like Segura and I don't understand the objections.

Spending an unplanned $14.5 million at this spot that instead could have been part of the package for a true “over the top” addition.

If we sign at least one player for over $90 million per season, then maybe we can’t as easily argue the Kimbrel and Keuchel deals blocked a much more exciting addition.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It is.  Which is why I've succumbed to the Segura move as being option A.  I don't love picking up Kimbrel's option to flip him for a guy making the same amount, but he's probably the best fit ASSUMING the Sox can solve LHB/+ hitter against RHP/decent enough defender in RF.  

Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B, Grandal DH, Robert CF, Eloy DH, Conforto RF, Vaughn LF, Segura 2B is a really, really, really good offensive team. 

Gonna say the same thing I said about Hernandez when we acquired him about Segura.

It's no where near a guarantee that Jean Segura outperforms Cesar Hernandez next year. Paying three times the price for Segura than Hernandez all so you can shed Kimbrel's salary is bad process. Segura would be the favorite over Hernandez in terms of expected performance, after normalizing expected PA's, it's 2.1 vs 2.5 via Steamer. wRC+ difference is 4 points (98 vs 102). Those two guys are way too similar for that to be the upgrade over Hernandez imo.

[Flash]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Fact is, the AL is getting a lot stronger and that means the Sox will have to play better teams. The Sox can't rely on internal development to make up the difference imo. I think the lack of concern about the rotation is crazy. The Sox are going to rely on Reynaldo Lopez next year even if everything goes right with the current starting five. Injuries happen to rotations, and the Sox are not setup well. The Sox have three good starters, 1 question mark, and 1 turd. They're one injury away from having two turds and a big question mark taking up 60% of their staff, or just two turds taking up 40%. The Sox were pretty lucky last year with SP health, in comparison. SP value is going to go up this year as pitchers return to their more normal work load. 

Couldn't agree more. We tend to forget just how dominant Rodon and Lynn were in the first half of the season. They were arguably 2 of the top 3-4 pitchers in the AL. The hope is Lynn will report in good playing shape and somehow we recapture a healthy Rodon. I would handicap both of those events as 'iffy'. Any regression by Lynn and/or Gio/Cease and all of a sudden we aren't such a sure thing in the AL Central. 

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Those two guys are way too similar for that to be the upgrade over Hernandez imo.

Good call. I think Cesar left a horrid taste in our mouth but given another chance he’d do better. Not a stretch to make either of those claims. ?

[almagest]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Spending an unplanned $14.5 million at this spot that instead could have been part of the package for a true “over the top” addition.

If we sign at least one player for over $90 million per season, then maybe we can’t as easily argue the Kimbrel and Keuchel deals blocked a much more exciting addition.

Whether we like it or not, the Sox did not like Madrigal. That's over now - filling a weakness with a strength via trade is a good move.

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Flash said:

Any regression by Lynn and/or Gio/Cease and all of a sudden we aren't such a sure thing in the AL Central. 

True… but first half Gio was trash. What if he takes another step forward? What if Kopech and Cease both take steps forward? What if Dallas makes himself useful again?
 

We have a lot to dream on but should hedge our bets.

[SoCalChiSox]

4 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

They would literally have all-star talent at every position.  If that's not enough for you I truly don't know what to tell you.  

We need to add multiple lefty mashers. I'm not sure why people are struggling with this concept. 

I dont want to hear about Sheets. I dont want to hear "but where's Schwarber gonna play?". I'm tired of excuses and then getting exposed against halfway decent righty pitching. 

Get the savages.

This was priority 1.

And priority 2.

And priority 3. 

Not dicking around with other things. Or throwing birthday parties for Minnie Minoso.

Or pat themselves on the back for potentially getting another righty GB hitter at 2B when that's NOT what we needed. 

Or telling us how hard they are working.

Get the damn savages. 

 

[kleedawg]

22 minutes ago, chw42 said:

I don't have a problem with Segura, what I do have an issue with is them picking up Kimbrel's option just to trade it for an almost equal salary. You could have just bought him out for a million and signed somebody in free agency. Unless they're getting some prospects back in a deal like that, it really doesn't make a ton of sense. 

But the problem floated around here was that we had 32 mil tied up in 2 closers which was redundent, and this was a bad allocation of money. Trading Kimbrel for almost equal money money invested in a 2b is a different story. @b is a position of need and Segura would be an improvement over what we currently have. 14 mil invested on a 2b is a different debate and should not be conflated as being equal to Kimbrel. Many wanted semien which was far more then 14 mil for example. Yes I know Semien is not Segura. Also, it seems prospects would also be coming back in that trade.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Gonna say the same thing I said about Hernandez when we acquired him about Segura.

It's no where near a guarantee that Jean Segura outperforms Cesar Hernandez next year. Paying three times the price for Segura than Hernandez all so you can shed Kimbrel's salary is bad process. Segura would be the favorite over Hernandez in terms of expected performance, after normalizing expected PA's, it's 2.1 vs 2.5 via Steamer. wRC+ difference is 4 points (98 vs 102). Those two guys are way too similar for that to be the upgrade over Hernandez imo.

Hahn could have admitted the mistake with Escobar…signed him, or doubled down on exercising a much cheaper option on Hermandez if they truly believed in that player turning it around.

He did neither.

If you could have Escobar OR Hernandez and Tepera instead of Segura coming to a completely new division and over from the NL…that would seem more prudent.  Cesar and Ryan would cost nearly the exact same as Segura alone.  And he balances out the RH nature of the line-up more.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

But the problem floated around here was that we had 32 mil tied up in 2 closers which was redundent, and this was a bad allocation of money. Trading Kimbrel for almost equal money money invested in a 2b is a different story. @b is a position of need and Segura would be an improvement over what we currently have. 14 mil invested on a 2b is a different debate and should not be conflated as being equal to Kimbrel. Many wanted semien which was far more then 14 mil for example. Yes I know Semien is not Segura. Also, it seems prospects would also be coming back in that trade.

If Leury had the same amount of AB's last year and stretched out his production equally in those extra 90+ AB's, he would have been worth roughly 2.4 fWAR. Jean Segura was worth 2.5 fWAR. 

I think Soxtalk has overvalued Jean Segura. From one person calling him an All-Star type player, to others thinking he's a huge upgrade. Segura could very easily be the same player as Leury Garcia/Cesar Hernandez. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

But the problem floated around here was that we had 32 mil tied up in 2 closers which was redundent, and this was a bad allocation of money. Trading Kimbrel for almost equal money money invested in a 2b is a different story. @b is a position of need and Segura would be an improvement over what we currently have. 14 mil invested on a 2b is a different debate and should not be conflated as being equal to Kimbrel. Many wanted semien which was far more then 14 mil for example. Yes I know Semien is not Segura. Also, it seems prospects would also be coming back in that trade.

Sure, as long as they add Conforto or Suzuki or ANYONE who can play halfway competent defense in RF.

Which basically forces a Vaughn trade for starting pitching…

 

Yankees signed Kirby Yates, two years, $8.25 million…would have been a solid move for that Tepera slot in the bullpen.

Edited November 30, 2021 by caulfield12

[Flash]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, as long as they add Conforto or Suzuki or ANYONE who can play halfway competent defense in RF.

Which basically forces a Vaughn trade for starting pitching…

Or an Eloy trade ?

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, as long as they add Conforto or Suzuki or ANYONE who can play halfway competent defense in RF.

Which basically forces a Vaughn trade for starting pitching…

Did we lose the DH spot.

[35thstreetswarm]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Leury had the same amount of AB's last year and stretched out his production equally in those extra 90+ AB's, he would have been worth roughly 2.4 fWAR. Jean Segura was worth 2.5 fWAR. 

I think Soxtalk has overvalued Jean Segura. From one person calling him an All-Star type player, to others thinking he's a huge upgrade. Segura could very easily be the same player as Leury Garcia/Cesar Hernandez. 

I have him at a 3.7 WAR for 2021, he has had multiple ~4 WAR+ seasons (one 6+, when he received 13 MVP votes), and is in fact a two-time all-star.  He could be the same player as Cesar Hernandez or Leury Garcia, but it would be a fairly dramatic departure from all three players' known histories for that to happen.  

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Did we lose the DH spot.

Grandal will get roughly half the at-bats there…or Sheets, because LH.

Making Vaughn a weakside platoon DH at this stage in his career is idiotic.

Or you’re suggesting we will trade Sheets and be even more right-handed?  
 

Then you have all those guys like Eloy and Abreu that will need to be rested or protected at that spot…gimpy days, etc.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Leury had the same amount of AB's last year and stretched out his production equally in those extra 90+ AB's, he would have been worth roughly 2.4 fWAR. Jean Segura was worth 2.5 fWAR. 

I think Soxtalk has overvalued Jean Segura. From one person calling him an All-Star type player, to others thinking he's a huge upgrade. Segura could very easily be the same player as Leury Garcia/Cesar Hernandez. 

I think Leury would be worth more as his poor outfield defense drags him.