Offseason Thread

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, maloney.adam said:

The 40 man roster is down to 33. They are definitely adding players through free agency or trades.

Well yeah of course, but they'll also need to add some guys to the 40 man to protect them from the Rule 5, so they aren't going to be operating with seven open spots for the majority of the offseason.

[maloney.adam]

It’s that time of the year now.

Edited November 7, 2021 by maloney.adam

[maloney.adam]

I got this from MLBTR. I don’t think I agree with this. They will be spending money, just a matter of how much.

 

Concerned Sox Fan

9:26

Not sure why I keep hearing White Sox might not be able to compete money-wise for top FAs. This is your window to win and getting blasted by the Astros should not be acceptable

 

Mark P

9:28

In a vacuum, yes.  But the White Sox have never been huge spenders, especially not for a team in a big market.  And, is Jerry Reinsdorf really going to green-light more spending in a year when labor talks are such an issue?

Edited November 7, 2021 by maloney.adam

[Dick Allen]

10 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

I got this from MLBTR. I don’t think I agree with this. They will be spending money, just a matter of how much.

 

Concerned Sox Fan

9:26

Not sure why I keep hearing White Sox might not be able to compete money-wise for top FAs. This is your window to win and getting blasted by the Astros should not be acceptable

 

Mark P

9:28

In a vacuum, yes.  But the White Sox have never been huge spenders, especially not for a team in a big market.  And, is Jerry Reinsdorf really going to green-light more spending in a year when labor talks are such an issue?

The last time there was labor unrest, the Sox did go from a WS contender to Terry Bevington, so there is reason fot some worry, but I don't think they will make the same mistakes.

[Pal]

13 hours ago, hi8is said:

Oops.

Hope all of that is an oops.

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, Pal said:

Hope all of that is an oops.

It’s really an anagram.

[Balta1701]

Didn’t spot this posted anywhere.

 

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Didn’t spot this posted anywhere.

 

Less competitors when we trade 1-2 of our 6-7 DH's (including Collins, loosely).

[maloney.adam]

 

[pcq]

Arizona Fall League

cgpn10973goh1c20002e  ·

Presented by NFP, this week's Hitter of the week is Chicago White Sox prospect Yolbert Sanchez! During week number four, Yolbert slashed an incredible .583/.667/.833 with a league-leading seven RBI. Sanchez is expected to make the big-league squad during the 2023 campaign according to MLB Pipeline and continue the AFL’s long-standing tradition of producing major league talent!

[South Side Hit Men]

Things might be a bit expensive like your grocery aisle this off-season.

 

[southsider2k5]

It will be interesting to see who jumps the gun in the next three weeks to get "their guy" and who waits until after the CBA to see if the owners can successfully collapse free agency again like they do after most CBA's.

[South Side Hit Men]

Add Oakland (Miami noted earlier) in terms of opportunities to pickup solid pitching at reasonable AAVs via trade.

The likely route if the Sox are looking for a pitcher to replace Rodon (vs. handling internally plus perhaps 1-2 NRIs).

 

[Ducksnort]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It will be interesting to see who jumps the gun in the next three weeks to get "their guy" and who waits until after the CBA to see if the owners can successfully collapse free agency again like they do after most CBA's.

When does the current CBA officially "expire"?

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, ScooterMcGee said:

When does the current CBA officially "expire"?

Dec 1.

[joejoesox]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

It will be interesting to see who jumps the gun in the next three weeks to get "their guy" and who waits until after the CBA to see if the owners can successfully collapse free agency again like they do after most CBA's.

Sox are definitely waiting until the CBA is finalized, nobody should be surprised by that

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Add Oakland (Miami noted earlier) in terms of opportunities to pickup solid pitching at reasonable AAVs via trade.

The likely route if the Sox are looking for a pitcher to replace Rodon (vs. handling internally plus perhaps 1-2 NRIs).

 

You keep saying this but I don’t agree at all.  You seem way too pessimistic on our financial outlook for next year.

Edited November 10, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[hi8is]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Add Oakland (Miami noted earlier) in terms of opportunities to pickup solid pitching at reasonable AAVs via trade.

The likely route if the Sox are looking for a pitcher to replace Rodon (vs. handling internally plus perhaps 1-2 NRIs).

 

Let’s sign Peavy and Samagizeya and trade them for Bassitt and Montas!

Edited November 10, 2021 by hi8is

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Sox are definitely waiting until the CBA is finalized, nobody should be surprised by that

I'll take that action.

[South Side Hit Men]

41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You keep saying this but I don’t agree at all.  You seem way too pessimistic on our financial outlook for next year.

It's realistic (and a + 20% increase over last year's OD is more realistic than the $185-$200M + people are bantering about). Plus it is more savvy to trade our surplus DH types and get quality cost controlled pitching in return. 

Time will tell how the final OD roster shapes up, but there is no evidence a 40% ($180M) to 50% ($192M) plus year over year OD payroll increase is likely, especially when 2021 was already the highest OD payroll in White Sox history.

The Sox currently have the 6th highest payroll, they are not going to be at or above the current luxury tax. There is no magic wand to make Hahn's poor acquisitions like Kimbrel (they should have let him walk) and Keuchel disappear. The money has been spent, just not very wisely or broadly across the roster.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

It's realistic (and a + 20% increase over last year's OD is more realistic than the $185-$200M + people are bantering about). Plus it is more savvy to trade our surplus DH types and get quality cost controlled pitching in return. 

Time will tell how the final OD roster shapes up, but there is no evidence a 40% ($180M) to 50% ($192M) plus year over year OD payroll increase is likely, especially when 2021 was already the highest OD payroll in White Sox history.

The Sox currently have the 6th highest payroll, they are not going to be at or above the current luxury tax. There is no magic wand to make Hahn's poor acquisitions like Kimbrel (they should have let him walk) and Keuchel disappear. The money has been spent, just not very wisely or broadly across the roster.

Having the 6th highest payroll on like day seven of the offseason is a meaningless stat and not sure why you keep referencing it.  And last year’s payroll was significantly impacted by COVID and would have been way higher without restricted attendance to start the year.  Also, I’m not sure what you think our payroll was last year, but I believe it ended around $135M to $140M.  $170M is a 100% realistic target for us and candidly speaking the Sox could probably rock a $200M payroll with ease as long as attendance is forecasted to be strong.  Again, you are crazy if you think we’ll have a $150M to $155M payroll next year.

[TheFutureIsNear]

My prediction: Everyone is heart broken. Again. 
 

Canha, Villar, and a mediocre RP will be the free agent haul

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Having the 6th highest payroll on like day seven of the offseason is a meaningless stat and not sure why you keep referencing it.  And last year’s payroll was significantly impacted by COVID and would have been way higher without restricted attendance to start the year.  Also, I’m not sure what you think our payroll was last year, but I believe it ended around $135M to $140M.  $170M is a 100% realistic target for us and candidly speaking the Sox could probably rock a $200M payroll with ease as long as attendance is forecasted to be strong.  Again, you are crazy if you think we’ll have a $150M to $155M payroll next year.

Everyone freak out I’m about to agree with CWS. I played the “oh payroll can’t possibly go up their revenues make no sense” game in 2015 and then they still signed Cabrera after that, so I’ve been burned on that thinking before.

Some numbers - from 2008-2010 the White Sox averaged about a $110 million payroll, with a $125 million peak. League wide, from 2008 to 2019, revenues more than doubled, from under $5 billion to $10 billion. Inflation has been very low this decade so most of the other costs haven’t changed all that much, that’s real growth in money coming in. a lot of it is revenue shared, so it’s going to teams including the white Sox.

With playoff ticket sales this year, those years shouldn’t be aggressive comps for next year. If salary stayed the same fraction of revenue, $220 million would be plausible, with a higher peak.

No I don’t think this team will pay the luxury tax, but aside from that, I’m not going to guess payroll limits at least until I see a CBA. The players are not happy about that massive drop in their money share and they probably won’t sign anything that doesn’t partially correct it. If it was clear that teams had to spend more over the next few years - it makes sense for the white Sox to do that sooner rather than waiting because their team can win right now and that might not be the case in 2 or 3 years.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Everyone freak out I’m about to agree with CWS. I played the “oh payroll can’t possibly go up their revenues make no sense” game in 2015 and then they still signed Cabrera after that, so I’ve been burned on that thinking before.

Some numbers - from 2008-2010 the White Sox averaged about a $110 million payroll, with a $125 million peak. League wide, from 2008 to 2019, revenues more than doubled, from under $5 billion to $10 billion. Inflation has been very low this decade so most of the other costs haven’t changed all that much, that’s real growth in money coming in. a lot of it is revenue shared, so it’s going to teams including the white Sox.

With playoff ticket sales this year, those years shouldn’t be aggressive comps for next year. If salary stayed the same fraction of revenue, $220 million would be plausible, with a higher peak.

No I don’t think this team will pay the luxury tax, but aside from that, I’m not going to guess payroll limits at least until I see a CBA. The players are not happy about that massive drop in their money share and they probably won’t sign anything that doesn’t partially correct it. If it was clear that teams had to spend more over the next few years - it makes sense for the white Sox to do that sooner rather than waiting because their team can win right now and that might not be the case in 2 or 3 years.

And let's be honest here. If anyone in baseball has a good feel for what the end game goal for the CBA is, it's Jerry.  

[caulfield12]

The real question is are they going to value controlling the payroll in that $175-180 million range or really go out there and aggressively spend on a finishing piece or two...nearing the $200 million mark.

Never in our wildest dreams was a $200+ million plus payroll possible, but we're definitely in that vicinity for 2023/24...especially if we are extending Giolito and/or TA.   While we have some of those older, higher-priced veterans coming off the books, we also have bumped up Lynn significantly, and there's Moncada/Jimenez/Robert going up in their salaries as well over time.

 

The biggest factor is we don't YET have obvious competition in the AL Central...which means at least for this season they can hold off until June/July instead of committing all that additional payroll money so early in the off season.  The only real pressure is advancing in the playoffs, rather than getting there in the first place (which is obviously a sign of progress, but there's also the danger of complacency we saw in the second half this year with nobody to really press the White Sox.)

In fact, looking at what the Braves did with their four adds to OF/DH only strengthens that argument, as well as the Cardinals' second half surge.