Offseason Thread

[ptatc]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

70 to 150 is a big jump.

Yes. Probably too big. Unless as another poster suggested, they run him through some simulated games to add up the innings now.

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yep to each his own. I look at it differently. It was a good plan derailed by injury, unless they could have predicted the injury.

Obviously neither know how Michael's medicals looked when he returned, but they had PLENTY of time to stretch him out and give him regular starts down the stretch.  They didn't do it until it was far too late.  I hated the plan on Kopech from the beginning, and you and I have discussed it at length over the past year.  I don't even think he should have been on the big league club until late May / early June.  But is what it is.  We now have just 4 years of control and 1 pre-arb year of a potentially elite SP who has yet to be stretched out.  Not ideal.  Most valuable portion of his control down the drain. 

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Obviously neither know how Michael's medicals looked when he returned, but they had PLENTY of time to stretch him out and give him regular starts down the stretch.  They didn't do it until it was far too late.  I hated the plan on Kopech from the beginning, and you and I have discussed it at length over the past year.  I don't even think he should have been on the big league club until late May / early June.  But is what it is.  We now have just 4 years of control and 1 pre-arb year of a potentially elite SP who has yet to be stretched out.  Not ideal.  Most valuable portion of his control down the drain. 

Yep. I just don't see the big difference as he wasn't going to throw more than 10-20 more innings regardless of the minors or majors. Stretching him out at the end of the season would have made him unavailable for the post season, if he went over those innings. They could have done it but the injury ruined those plans.

The minors vs. majors is a good discussion.  I personally think the experience of learning how to get major leagues hitters out, outweighs the benefit of manipulating the innings in less stressful situations. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yep. I just don't see the big difference as he wasn't going to throw more than 10-20 more innings regardless of the minors or majors. Stretching him out at the end of the season would have made him unavailable for the post season, if he went over those innings. They could have done it but the injury ruined those plans.

The minors vs. majors is a good discussion.  I personally think the experience of learning how to get major leagues hitters out, outweighs the benefit of manipulating the innings in less stressful situations. 

The logic you are presenting here makes no sense...

Stretching Kopech out and expanding his innings was derailed by a hamstring injury... also, they could have stretched him out towards the end of the year but then he wouldn't have been available for the post season.

So... how did the hamstring derail stretching him out if he couldn't be stretched out anyway without losing postseason eligibility? It can't be both.

And the excuse that the injury prevented them from doing something they clearly never had any plans on doing is nonsense imo. People insinuating he wasn't stretched out because of that injury are simply making things up and drawing their own conclusions without an inkling of evidence. The Sox managed Kopech how they did, it was poorly, and based on that mismanagement they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt that they would have done it correctly if not for some 2 week hamstring injury.

Edited October 14, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yep. I just don't see the big difference as he wasn't going to throw more than 10-20 more innings regardless of the minors or majors. Stretching him out at the end of the season would have made him unavailable for the post season, if he went over those innings. They could have done it but the injury ruined those plans.

The minors vs. majors is a good discussion.  I personally think the experience of learning how to get major leagues hitters out, outweighs the benefit of manipulating the innings in less stressful situations. 

I just don't agree here.  There were 2 plans of action that made sense in my mind:

1) Start him in the minors as opener.  Very limited innings early on.  Slowly work up to 3-4 inning starts by late May (call it 15-20 milb innings).  Call him up in early June when you get the year of control back.  At that point, the season is 1/3 over.  Averaging 5 inning starts (and certainly giving extra rest where need) over the course of 15-18 starts puts him right around 100 innings by end of the season.  Sure, he may be mostly fried by the postseason, but he was anyway and we got basically no benefit out of him anyway with the benefit of hindsight.  Maybe his arm is stronger had they gone this route and he's not fried come October.  But at least we'd at least have 5 years of control, 2 pre-arb years, and a stretched out front of the rotation stud heading into 2022.  Best case scenario IMO.

2) Since they Sox decided that wasn't the best route for whatever reason, the other route was to use him in the MLB pen the first half the year and stretch him out in the 2nd half such that he was available come October.  I think the innings shake out about the same as above (if he stays healthy), or maybe just slightly less.  But the Sox ditched this plan for whatever reason - likely because TLR found him too valuable in the pen and was only focused on the present. We know how the 2nd half of the season shook out.  Short of getting seriously hurt, this was a very bad scenario.  We now have a guy who had primarily been used as a 1 inning reliever, has not started regularly since 2018, is not stretched out, another year of pre-arb control gone, and a ton of question marks heading in 2022.  Very bad.  

[hankchifan]

25 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Obviously neither know how Michael's medicals looked when he returned, but they had PLENTY of time to stretch him out and give him regular starts down the stretch.  They didn't do it until it was far too late.  I hated the plan on Kopech from the beginning, and you and I have discussed it at length over the past year.  I don't even think he should have been on the big league club until late May / early June.  But is what it is.  We now have just 4 years of control and 1 pre-arb year of a potentially elite SP who has yet to be stretched out.  Not ideal.  Most valuable portion of his control down the drain. 

Agree. Also short term, we got stuck with Keuchel in the rotation, which probably cost us HFA.

[Balta1701]

21 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yep. I just don't see the big difference as he wasn't going to throw more than 10-20 more innings regardless of the minors or majors. Stretching him out at the end of the season would have made him unavailable for the post season, if he went over those innings. They could have done it but the injury ruined those plans.

The minors vs. majors is a good discussion.  I personally think the experience of learning how to get major leagues hitters out, outweighs the benefit of manipulating the innings in less stressful situations. 

Your numbers for him early in the season were 110 to 100 innings, with 120 probably being too much and 80-90 being so low that you couldn’t fathom him getting fewer than that if they wanted him being a starter. 

[ptatc]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The logic you are presenting here makes no sense...

Stretching Kopech out and expanding his innings was derailed by a hamstring injury... also, they could have stretched him out towards the end of the year but then he wouldn't have been available for the post season.

So... how did the hamstring derail stretching him out if he couldn't be stretched out anyway without losing postseason eligibility? It can't be both.

And the excuse that the injury prevented them from doing something they clearly never had any plans on doing is nonsense imo. People insinuating he wasn't stretched out because of that injury are simply making things up and drawing their own conclusions without an inkling of evidence. The Sox managed Kopech how they did, it was poorly, and based on that mismanagement they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt that they would have done it correctly if not for some 2 week hamstring injury.

That's fine you can disagree.

The injury not only took innings away from time missed but also from  the time they needed to ramp him up. 

The stretching out issue is a choice they would have needed to make to finish up his innings.

Do you 1. Stretch him out and complete all of his innings limit and not have him in the playoffs

or 2. Continue to limit his innings in relief and complete his innings limit in the playoffs

Thus, while the plan to get him to his innings limit didn't work. I think it was due to the injury and not a mismanagement of the plan.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Your numbers for him early in the season were 110 to 100 innings, with 120 probably being too much and 80-90 being so low that you couldn’t fathom him getting fewer than that if they wanted him being a starter. 

Spot on.  Tho I can guarantee you he uses the injury as his reasoning why everything changes.  I call BS. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Your numbers for him early in the season were 110 to 100 innings, with 120 probably being too much and 80-90 being so low that you couldn’t fathom him getting fewer than that if they wanted him being a starter. 

Right if they planned on him being a full time starter. To get him close to those innings, he would have not been able to be injured and then been used in the playoffs to get close to those innings. 

As it stands, he didn't get to those innings and probably shouldn't be a full time starter. He should be a starter because his innings will need to be in the 150-160 range but will need some skipped starts or mange those innings somehow.

The expectations for the 100 innings give or take changed with the injury.

A based the workload on being a fulltime not skipping any starts, regular rotation starter. That obviously shouldn't happen, in my opinion due to the injury risk next year. Now if they are doing simulated games right now to increase those innings, it could change.

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Spot on.  Tho I can guarantee you he uses the injury as his reasoning why everything changes.  I call BS. 

That's fine. I happen to think that an injury is a reason to not pitch. It looks like you disagree that an injury is a good reason to not pitch or at least they should have predicted the injury and had him pitch more earlier in the year.

I also changed my view of him being able to be a full time starter next year based on said injury.

Unless you can say that you could predict the injury thus they should have had him pitch more earlier in the year, I don't see how it was mismanaged. He was on track to get a good number of innings in for the year.

Edited October 14, 2021 by ptatc

[hi8is]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I happen to think that an injury is a reason to not pitch.

??

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That's fine. I happen to think that an injury is a reason to not pitch. It looks like you disagree that an injury is a good reason to not pitch or at least they should have predicted the injury and had him pitch more earlier in the year.

I also changed my view of him being able to be a full time starter next year based on said injury.

Unless you can say that you could predict the injury thus they should have had him pitch more earlier in the year, I don't see how it was mismanaged. He was on track to get a good number of innings in for the year.

After his injury, don't bury him for 2 months as a 10 inning a month reliever. If he's still hurt don't call him off the IL and give him a rehab stint first (they literally called him up right before the big league all star break, so it's not like they were desperate for those innings). In that rehab stint, have him throw 20 pitches, 40 pitches, and then 60 pitches in his 3 outings or something like that. Then, in late July/early August, when Keuchel is struggling, Rodon needs time off, and they have several double headers, he's getting multiple inning outings in those games. Now we're at 90 innings for the year, right in line with your goals, with still some room for him to pitch in the postseason (Which was mismanaged again, but well who wasn't there).

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

After his injury, don't bury him for 2 months as a 10 inning a month reliever. If he's still hurt don't call him off the IL and give him a rehab stint first (they literally called him up right before the big league all star break, so it's not like they were desperate for those innings). In that rehab stint, have him throw 20 pitches, 40 pitches, and then 60 pitches in his 3 outings or something like that. Then, in late July/early August, when Keuchel is struggling, Rodon needs time off, and they have several double headers, he's getting multiple inning outings in those games. Now we're at 90 innings for the year, right in line with your goals, with still some room for him to pitch in the postseason (Which was mismanaged again, but well who wasn't there).

They fucked it up. Babied him too much.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

After his injury, don't bury him for 2 months as a 10 inning a month reliever. If he's still hurt don't call him off the IL and give him a rehab stint first (they literally called him up right before the big league all star break, so it's not like they were desperate for those innings). In that rehab stint, have him throw 20 pitches, 40 pitches, and then 60 pitches in his 3 outings or something like that. Then, in late July/early August, when Keuchel is struggling, Rodon needs time off, and they have several double headers, he's getting multiple inning outings in those games. Now we're at 90 innings for the year, right in line with your goals, with still some room for him to pitch in the postseason (Which was mismanaged again, but well who wasn't there).

I would agree that the management after the injury was suspect. There seems to have been more going on to limit his innings that much after it. This is the problem with saying it was all mismanaged, we don't know everything that was going on.

however, the overall plan from the beginning of the year as you were quoting was still a good plan derailed by the injury. This is why I keep pointing to the inury caused the issue not the mismangement of the plan for the year

[hi8is]

So… how about Yolbert Sánchez at second? If it was 2018, I’d be all for it. 

[ptatc]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They fucked it up. Babied him too much.

Possible. however, without knowing everything that was going on I wouldn't necessarily jump to that conclusion. with his injury history that may be the best plan of care.

[kleedawg]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They fucked it up. Babied him too much.

Maybe, but if they stretched him out and he got hurt, then you would say they fucked him up and overworked him.  They had a plan for him that was reasonable. It will always be debatable whether it was the best plan (which is what we are doing) but who really knows what the best plan is. Its not an exact science, we just have our opinion. I think the biggest problem with Kopech was scrapping the change-up as a reliever. Hitters just sat FB against him an took the slider. Sliders are much easier to identify from fast balls than change-ups.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I would agree that the management after the injury was suspect. There seems to have been more going on to limit his innings that much after it. This is the problem with saying it was all mismanaged, we don't know everything that was going on.

however, the overall plan from the beginning of the year as you were quoting was still a good plan derailed by the injury. This is why I keep pointing to the inury caused the issue not the mismangement of the plan for the year

If it was that easily and dramatically derailed by a minor injury, such that a muscle pull affects the team construction years later, then as you said in the spring it was a "Mistake".

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, kleedawg said:

Maybe, but if they stretched him out and he got hurt, then you would say they fucked him up and overworked him.  They had a plan for him that was reasonable. It will always be debatable whether it was the best plan (which is what we are doing) but who really knows what the best plan is. Its not an exact science, we just have our opinion. I think the biggest problem with Kopech was scrapping the change-up as a reliever. Hitters just sat FB against him an took the slider. Sliders are much easier to identify from fast balls than change-ups.

excellent post, I agree the biggest problem with the plan, and maybe it was a decent plan, we'll never know the best plan, but the problem was ditching the changeup. I never felt he had a feel for his stuff after the hamstring. Maybe that was the injury, maybe it was lack of usage, maybe it was both or something else or whatever. Post more.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Maybe, but if they stretched him out and he got hurt, then you would say they fucked him up and overworked him.  They had a plan for him that was reasonable. It will always be debatable whether it was the best plan (which is what we are doing) but who really knows what the best plan is. Its not an exact science, we just have our opinion. I think the biggest problem with Kopech was scrapping the change-up as a reliever. Hitters just sat FB against him an took the slider. Sliders are much easier to identify from fast balls than change-ups.

Dang, good post. I agree.

[kleedawg]

I think the ditched both the curve and the change because of the hypothesis that relievers only need 2 quality pitches. This has merit because even starters generally through just 2 pitches to start a game and work in the others as they go. Stone alludes to this often when Cease pitches (that he shouldn't through all 4 in 1st inning). But I think Kopech should have kept the change while scrapping the curve until next year.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If it was that easily and dramatically derailed by a minor injury, such that a muscle pull affects the team construction years later, then as you said in the spring it was a "Mistake".

I disagree. The plan wasn't the mistake. I don't think predicting an injury to take away innings is a reasonable plan to start the year.

[tray]

1 hour ago, tray said:

 

I understand why Kopech wants to start and that a starter generally makes more money than most bullpen pitchers.  I also understand that Sox fans want a stud in the rotation . However, Kopech  also profiles as an all-out 100 mph max effort pitcher that could be even more effective at the end of games rather than at the beginning. .  He could easily  develop into a premier Closer and  there are several advantages to that, the most important being potential  career longevity ( recall the career of Goose Gossage) .

I have always thought that  the best path for Kopech was in the bullpen with the ultimate goal of being a  lock-down Closer. That would pretty much resolve virtually all the issues about his innings usage. It would also have made it more clear that he should have been the 8th inning guy moving forward and thus, no need to give up another top reliever prospect plus Madrigal....to get an 8th inning guy.  Now Hahn has an 8th ninning guy (Kimbrel) plus a guy who they want to start games in 2022, but not sure how many or for how long.

 

 

Kopech would be as effective as Liam Hendriks as a Closer. Get rid of Kimbrel and Hendriks and Close by committee until Kopech takes the throne. Then you pay him handsomely and he forgets about being stretched out as a partial season starter.

Trade Vaughn for a starting pitcher.

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, tray said:

Kopech would be as effective as Liam Hendriks as a Closer. Get rid of Kimbrel and Hendriks and Close by committee until Kopech takes the throne. Then you pay him handsomely and he forgets about being stretched out as a partial season starter.

Trade Vaughn for a starting pitcher.

Man what