Offseason Thread

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, bmags said:

Yeah, I resisted going to offseason stuff until recently, but if you want to diversify this offense with LH hitting and better OBP that doesn't chase and isn't a butcher in RF you pretty much circle Conforto because outside of putting Seager at 2b it ain't at that position.

Now, Marte as a RHH gets you great ABs vs RHP so it's an option there too and I wouldn't complain.

Yeah, I wouldn’t complain about Marte, although I’d prefer Conforto given he’s several years younger and less likely to suddenly fall off a cliff IMO.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

dwar 

He's 44th among RFers on Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2021&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=10&pos=9&roles=&viz=show

What stat do you have that shows Conforto is even close to being an quality RFer? Leury and Adam Duvall ranked ahead of him last season.

The way to win is not spending on a top heavy payroll and hope guys can match what they did when they were in their prime. Sox already have half their payroll on Lynn, Keuchel, Grandal, Abreu, and are considering $16M more for Kimbrel.

People keep crowing about Conforto as this 4 bWAR/fWAR player and he barely touched that in his peak year, but averages 2 and change each year. He is going to be expensive, and is not "worth the squeeze". Conforto restricts any other quality signings, and the team is dealing with multiple holes to fil this offseason.

Edited October 22, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He's 44th among RFers on Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2021&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=10&pos=9&roles=&viz=show

What stat do you have that shows Conforto is even close to being an quality RFer? Leury and Adam Duvall ranked ahead of him last season.

The way to win is not spending on a top heavy payroll and hope guys can match what they did when they were in their prime. Sox already have half their payroll on Lynn, Keuchel, Grandal, Abreu, and are considering $16M more for Kimbrel.

People keep crowing about Conforto as this 4 bWAR/fWAR player and he barely touched that in his peak year, but averages 2 and change each year. He is going to be expensive, and is not "worth the squeeze". Conforto restricts any other quality signings, and the team is dealing with multiple holes to fil this offseason.

minimum attempts set to 10 huh ?

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

minimum attempts set to 10 huh ?

Set it to qualifiers, still behind Adam Duvall, who'll come at half the cost.

Sox need Jermaine Dyes, not another $15M-$20M / year player. They are restricted enough at this point with a top heavy payroll.

[bmags]

Just now, South Side Hit Men said:

Set it to qualifiers, still behind Adam Duvall, who'll come at half the cost.

Sox need Jermaine Dyes, not another $15M-$20M / year player. They are restricted enough at this point with a top heavy payroll.

He strikes out >30% of the time, his OBP is .280. If his power goes down an inch his value goes down a mile. And he's an older guy hitting way more homers than doubles, I've seen that story before.

I'd say Conforto is a hell of a lot more like Jermaine Dye at signing than Duvall.

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He's 44th among RFers on Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2021&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=10&pos=9&roles=&viz=show

What stat do you have that shows Conforto is even close to being an quality RFer? Leury and Adam Duvall ranked ahead of him last season.

The way to win is not spending on a top heavy payroll and hope guys can match what they did when they were in their prime. Sox already have half their payroll on Lynn, Keuchel, Grandal, Abreu, and are considering $16M more for Kimbrel.

People keep crowing about Conforto as this 4 bWAR/fWAR player and he barely touched that in his peak year, but averages 2 and change each year. He is going to be expensive, and is not "worth the squeeze". Conforto restricts any other quality signings, and the team is dealing with multiple holes to fil this offseason.

In addition 

bWAR for some reason

2017 4.1 bWAR in 109 games
2018 3.4 bWAR in 153 games
2019 3.9 bWAR in 151 games
2020 2.1 bWAR in 54 games

fWAR

2017 4.4 fWAR in 109 games
2018 2.9 fWAR in 153 games
2019 3.9 fWAR in 151 games
2020 2.1 fWAR in 54 games

So...he "barely touched it" in his 2017 season where he hit 4 war in 2/3rds of a season, but when he was at 3.9 in 2019, that's not 4...that's 2 "and change" I guess. And in 2020, where he had 2.1 WAR in ONE THIRD OF A SEASON that is somehow held against him as a 2 WAR season.

[kleedawg]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

This. It's a terrible idea. They need to fill the damn hole in RF. Giving it to Sheets is a fireable offense.

oh plz, Swarber is about as bad as a fielder as there is. Was it a fire-able offense for the Cubs, Nationals, & Red Sox to play him in the field? The red sox are even finding out he is bad at 1b

[ron883]

2 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

oh plz, Swarber is about as bad as a fielder as there is. Was it a fire-able offense for the Cubs, Nationals, & Red Sox to play him in the field? The red sox are even finding out he is bad at 1b

Sheets is worse than Schwarber in the OF and he is not the hitter Schwarber is. Not even close. 

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Sheets is worse than Schwarber in the OF and he is not the hitter Schwarber is. Not even close. 

Actually interesting here - Sheets is 25 right now. Through his age 25 season, Kyle Schwarber had an .809 OPS/112 OPS+ for his career. Sheets put up an .823 OPS/130 OPS+ this year.

[kleedawg]

Just now, ron883 said:

Sheets is worse than Schwarber in the OF and he is not the hitter Schwarber is. Not even close. 

No way is schwarber better, Also Schwarber was craptastic is rookie year in the of and improved somewhat. Appatently for some reason sheets will always be what he is for some reason. Schwarber has also quite a few years at the plate were he sucked. Sheets was pretty good in a small sample size. He may not be as good as schwarber, he may proove to be better, We simply do not know yet.

What we do know is Gavin gives lots of indications that he could be special such as:

Despite being a low ball hitter, he hits good high fastballs well.

He doesn't try to pull everything. 

For a young hitter he doesn't chase many pitches that are clearly balls.

He is short to the ball and long through it.

He has a good approach and is willing to situational hit.

Let me also ask you this about is short time in RF how many games has he cost us with bad defense? How many has he won us with his bat?

The sox could also just DH him while going with eloy and vaughn playing the corners. Yes range is sacrificed some in rf and eloy won't win a gg ever. But no team is going to both good offensively & Defensively at every position all the time. Plus we will limit our exposure to poor of defense with engel, hamilton etc. playing after the 6th inning, starting them in Detroit, etch.

Ironically Gavin has made more miscues at 1b than rf

[Kyyle23]

12 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

No way is schwarber better, Also Schwarber was craptastic is rookie year in the of and improved somewhat. Appatently for some reason sheets will always be what he is for some reason. Schwarber has also quite a few years at the plate were he sucked. Sheets was pretty good in a small sample size. He may not be as good as schwarber, he may proove to be better, We simply do not know yet.

What we do know is Gavin gives lots of indications that he could be special such as:

Despite being a low ball hitter, he hits good high fastballs well.

He doesn't try to pull everything. 

For a young hitter he doesn't chase many pitches that are clearly balls.

He is short to the ball and long through it.

He has a good approach and is willing to situational hit.

Let me also ask you this about is short time in RF how many games has he cost us with bad defense? How many has he won us with his bat?

The sox could also just DH him while going with eloy and vaughn playing the corners. Yes range is sacrificed some in rf and eloy won't win a gg ever. But no team is going to both good offensively & Defensively at every position all the time. Plus we will limit our exposure to poor of defense with engel, hamilton etc. playing after the 6th inning, starting them in Detroit, etch.

Ironically Gavin has made more miscues at 1b than rf

Either way the defense is bad, we aren't getting drastically better with one or the other.  Just depends on what you feel Gavin will be at the majors vs what you know you will get from Schwarber

[35thstreetswarm]

2 hours ago, kleedawg said:

I know that, I'm saying free agency for the following year (s) where different options are available. I'm going to learn what Sheets is this year at the minimum. 

I honestly don't understand.  What is it about Sheets that gives you such certainty that you wouldn't even consider a more established player to man RF -- not even Sheets's position -- as an insurance policy?  All while still holding on to Sheets, thus keeping him around to achieve the greatness you foresee?  I might understand if his small-sample-size performance came as the culmination of a huge minor league career.  But it doesn't.  He's an obvious candidate for major regression.  Were you this convinced about Mercedes (who *did* tear up the minors) in June?

[Bob Sacamano]

3 hours ago, kleedawg said:

I know that, I'm saying free agency for the following year (s) where different options are available. I'm going to learn what Sheets is this year at the minimum. 

They could have done that this year with all the injuries and large hole in RF. They didn’t. It’s pretty clear they’re not high on him as a regular outfield option.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

In addition 

bWAR for some reason

2017 4.1 bWAR in 109 games
2018 3.4 bWAR in 153 games
2019 3.9 bWAR in 151 games
2020 2.1 bWAR in 54 games

fWAR

2017 4.4 fWAR in 109 games
2018 2.9 fWAR in 153 games
2019 3.9 fWAR in 151 games
2020 2.1 fWAR in 54 games

So...he "barely touched it" in his 2017 season where he hit 4 war in 2/3rds of a season, but when he was at 3.9 in 2019, that's not 4...that's 2 "and change" I guess. And in 2020, where he had 2.1 WAR in ONE THIRD OF A SEASON that is somehow held against him as a 2 WAR season.

What about his most recent year, the year he was beneath Leury, beneath 39 game Adam Engel. To pay top dollar for such a player, and forgo the necessary acquisitions at 2B, in the bullpen, considering a fifth starter, is hoping for a third straight season a new RF acquisition won't suck as he did the past season. See Mazara and Eaton. Let alone bringing in yet another high priced NL "stud" hitter which ultimately turns into a turd in the AL.

Tthe Sox have spent an inordinate amount of money the past two seasons paying a players top performance of yesteryear, and pulling out excuses when players are in decline, or players in their thirties are injured and don't perform or are injured far more than they were in the past.

We have a difference in opinion, my point is you don't lock most to all of your remaining available payroll on a player who sucked ass last year, would have been a downgrade over internal options, and will cost you a lot of money. I'm not too worried, as I doubt the Sox will commit whatever resources they have this off-season on Conforto.

What contract ($s and AAV) are you willing to throw at Conforto?

Edited October 22, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Dick Allen]

When I look back at last offseason it's amazing how just about everything didn't matter

If the Sox kept Renteria or signed Hinch instead of Tony, they win the division and lose in the ALDS.

If they sign any RF other than Springet, same thing.

If Rodon went somewhere else, as great as he was, same thing.

If they don't trade for Lynn, same thing. Although if they didn't do that he probably wouldn't be available for a 2 year offer.

It probably would have made things closer and maybe Cleveland doesn't make Cesar available to the Sox and they have to settle for Escobar. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Dick Allen

[Kyyle23]

Conforto missed like 40 Games this year, didn't he

[kleedawg]

2 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I honestly don't understand.  What is it about Sheets that gives you such certainty that you wouldn't even consider a more established player to man RF -- not even Sheets's position -- as an insurance policy?  All while still holding on to Sheets, thus keeping him around to achieve the greatness you foresee?  I might understand if his small-sample-size performance came as the culmination of a huge minor league career.  But it doesn't.  He's an obvious candidate for major regression.  Were you this convinced about Mercedes (who *did* tear up the minors) in June?

In an above post I explain why I think Gavin might be special and not a candidate for major regression. I never said I was against improving the position or having an insurance policy. I'm against Gavin as just a bench/ph hitter because we won't learn what he is in limited playing time. Full disclosure, I considered conforto for next year as a rf answer when I saw a list of probable free agents before we brought up Gavin. But, I saw conforto has the best left hitting option available, but not necessarily a good option. I see Conforto as a high "floor" person not a high "ceiling" person. 

I would be all for sign a better left hand hitter FA rf he was out there for this year, but he is not. Someone like Benitendi, harper (duh), verdugo, carlson, etc.

This is my opinion, I could be wrong as could any to which I am debating. Which is great a healthy debate. Being a defensive liability is a great point. One I feel can be mitigated in various ways. What frustrates me is a couple of things.

1. Too many of us seem to see players in a vacuum. He sucks or is great now so he will always suck or is great (think how many suggested luis Robert was a bust after 2020). If a player is bad its always some trend not that he was playing hurt, his wife divorced him, his brother died. No he is bad. This is not to make excuses for players but there is a bigger picture that stats don't explain.

2. Statistics are an important tool that are often mis-used and misunderstood.

3. I have seen the sox go through a bevy of adam, Dunn's, Larouche's, etc looking for a lefthanded hitting slugger and when one may finally fall in our lap's we are so quick to dismiss him. I don't want to have the Tatis regret with Gavin when he his hitting 35 bombs and batting 2.80 for the A's (no I do not think his talent is anywhere near Tatis, just that people will be bitching how shitty the organization is for letting Gavin go, because we knew all along how good he would be..like Tatis)

 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

In an above post I explain why I think Gavin might be special and not a candidate for major regression. I never said I was against improving the position or having an insurance policy. I'm against Gavin as just a bench/ph hitter because we won't learn what he is in limited playing time. Full disclosure, I considered conforto for next year as a rf answer when I saw a list of probable free agents before we brought up Gavin. But, I saw conforto has the best left hitting option available, but not necessarily a good option. I see Conforto as a high "floor" person not a high "ceiling" person. 

I would be all for sign a better left hand hitter FA rf he was out there for this year, but he is not. Someone like Benitendi, harper (duh), verdugo, carlson, etc.

This is my opinion, I could be wrong as could any to which I am debating. Which is great a healthy debate. Being a defensive liability is a great point. One I feel can be mitigated in various ways. What frustrates me is a couple of things.

1. Too many of us seem to see players in a vacuum. He sucks or is great now so he will always suck or is great (think how many suggested luis Robert was a bust after 2020). If a player is bad its always some trend not that he was playing hurt, his wife divorced him, his brother died. No he is bad. This is not to make excuses for players but there is a bigger picture that stats don't explain.

2. Statistics are an important tool that are often mis-used and misunderstood.

3. I have seen the sox go through a bevy of adam, Dunn's, Larouche's, etc looking for a lefthanded hitting slugger and when one may finally fall in our lap's we are so quick to dismiss him. I don't want to have the Tatis regret with Gavin when he his hitting 35 bombs and batting 2.80 for the A's (no I do not think his talent is anywhere near Tatis, just that people will be bitching how shitty the organization is for letting Gavin go, because we knew all along how good he would be..like Tatis)

 

I don’t understand why he can’t just be a DH? I think everyone is fine with Gavin the DH.

[kleedawg]

Just now, bmags said:

I don’t understand why he can’t just be a DH? I think everyone is fine with Gavin the DH.

He can just DH. I'm fine with that (even better). But Then eloy is in Lf and Vaughn in right. Which I'm fine with. Conforto may be a slighty upgrade but the juice isn't worth the squeeze in my opinion. I don't think the money required for conforto is worth it for the sox. That money needs to go to a starting pitcher and a 2b. Plus we have bullpen needs. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

While teams like the Dodgers are putting converted shortstops all over the field the Sox will put converted first baseman.  That's not going to close the gap.  This team needs to get more athletic not less.    

[kleedawg]

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

While teams like the Dodgers are putting converted shortstops all over the field the Sox will put converted first baseman.  That's not going to close the gap.  This team needs to get more athletic not less.    

How is the Gavin Lux experiment going in CF? 

[35thstreetswarm]

21 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

He can just DH. I'm fine with that (even better). But Then eloy is in Lf and Vaughn in right. Which I'm fine with. Conforto may be a slighty upgrade but the juice isn't worth the squeeze in my opinion. I don't think the money required for conforto is worth it for the sox. That money needs to go to a starting pitcher and a 2b. Plus we have bullpen needs. 

OK, I think I understand a little better, and I'd be a lot more comfortable with him DHing than playing RF, though I'd still rather see Eloy there with Vaughn in LF and a more athletic player in RF (whether it's a FA or Engel).  I'd love to just see us sign Semien, which would really lower the stakes of all these outfield decisions. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by 35thstreetswarm

[kleedawg]

I love Semien but I really love Jose Ramirez who is a FA the following year. 

[kleedawg]

17 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

OK, I think I understand a little better, and I'd be a lot more comfortable with him DHing than playing RF, though I'd still rather see Eloy there with Vaughn in LF and a more athletic player in RF (whether it's a FA or Engel).  I'd love to just see us sign Semien, which would really lower the stakes of all these outfield decisions. 

Yeah this topic has kind of meandered over multiple pages with multiple posters dissecting both pro and con different aspects of the debate.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don’t know, to me it feels like Vaughn or Sheets will be moved if I had to guess. They could try to make it work for a year and go with a deeper bench (5 with a 7-man pen) with Sheets serving as a left-handed 1B/COF bench bat ala Ross Gload.