Offseason Thread

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I know who is writing this, so just saying again “we insist we didn’t make a mistake and we will throw another $16 million at proving that” would be such awful thinking by the front office it’s hard to put it into words. 

This hasn’t nothing to do with refusing to admit they made a mistake and everything to do with the fact Kimbrel is movable on a one year deal.  The decision is effectively $14M and you’re completely naive to think teams wouldn’t be interested at that price point.  Hahn will have done his due diligence prior to picking up that option and it will end up being a low risk move no matter how much you ridicule it for being stupid.

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This hasn’t nothing to do with refusing to admit they made a mistake and everything to do with the fact Kimbrel is movable on a one year deal.  The decision is effectively $14M and you’re completely naive to think teams wouldn’t be interested at that price point.  Hahn will have done his due diligence prior to picking up that option and it will end up being a low risk move no matter how much you ridicule it for being stupid.

If you think he's movable fine. If you think you want him back because you've identified what's wrong with him, fine. Neither of those are the justification that was just used there - the justification given was the worst possible one. "I'm too good to have made a mistake and I'm going to prove it" is awful thinking and you know it, that's why you didn't try to defend it. And given that it's coming from a person who might well have heard the FO actually have that attitude, it's disconcerting.

[SCCWS]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you think he's movable fine. If you think you want him back because you've identified what's wrong with him, fine. Neither of those are the justification that was just used there - the justification given was the worst possible one. "I'm too good to have made a mistake and I'm going to prove it" is awful thinking and you know it, that's why you didn't try to defend it. And given that it's coming from a person who might well have heard the FO actually have that attitude, it's disconcerting.

I do think there is another problem. If the Sox keep Kimbrel with the thought he is movable, what role does he serve in the interim? If he continues as a set-up man and fails, he is not move-able for $14. If he closes and rediscovers the magic then do you  move Hendricks? Does having both again affect Hendricks as a closer?  Not sure it is as easy as we keep him and he is movable with no affect on Hendricks.

Relief pitchers are quirky guys whose performance can be very roller-coaster like.  I think Hahn has a tough decision financially and possibly chemistry wise as well

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I do think there is another problem. If the Sox keep Kimbrel with the thought he is movable, what role does he serve in the interim? If he continues as a set-up man and fails, he is not move-able for $14. If he closes and rediscovers the magic then do you  move Hendricks? Does having both again affect Hendricks as a closer?  Not sure it is as easy as we keep him and he is movable with no affect on Hendricks.

Relief pitchers are quirky guys whose performance can be very roller-coaster like.  I think Hahn has a tough decision financially and possibly chemistry wise as well

He thinks Kimbrel is movable for a decent return, I think it's going to be surprisingly tough unless there's a minimum salary that a number of teams have to increase payroll to meet. But regardless of which one is right - the one thing they should not be thinking is "I gave up Madrigal and Heuer, I can't have given up those guys and not get something important in return." It wouldn't matter if they gave up Tatis and Semien for the guy, he's either movable or he's not movable now based on his current contract and performance, and what they gave up to get him should not enter into that calculation. If it is, then it's just ego, rather than any sort of baseball decision. 

[bmags]

43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He thinks Kimbrel is movable for a decent return, I think it's going to be surprisingly tough unless there's a minimum salary that a number of teams have to increase payroll to meet. But regardless of which one is right - the one thing they should not be thinking is "I gave up Madrigal and Heuer, I can't have given up those guys and not get something important in return." It wouldn't matter if they gave up Tatis and Semien for the guy, he's either movable or he's not movable now based on his current contract and performance, and what they gave up to get him should not enter into that calculation. If it is, then it's just ego, rather than any sort of baseball decision. 

I've read the original posts a number of times, and it does not say this.

[ChiSox59]

9 hours ago, macsandz said:

Great. Your scenario is still flawed. They're not gonna give him $2M to let him walk.

He's gonna have some value in 2022 - either in a trade or in the pen. 

Not exactly sure what you're trying to get at - I didn't say anything to the contrary.  They'll get a some live arm and salary relief for him.  If they do better, great - I sincerely hope they do.  I do believe he is tradable for something, but it was and remains a god awful and short-sighted trade to move a cost-controlled Madrigal (not to mention Heuer who was actually more effective than Kimbrel ROS (which I called) for an overpaid reliever.  IDGAF if Madrigal rubbed the coaching staff the wrong way with his cocky attitude and strange demeanor.  There is absolutely nothing that will make that trade a passable one.  If you want to move Madrigal - fine - at least get something that helps the team in the short and long term.  Kimbrel did neither.  Massive failure. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by ChiSox59

[ChiSox59]

On 10/26/2021 at 11:07 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

My reasoning was twofold.  First, as you outlined above, La Stella’s salary jumps substantially in 2023 and they make seek an upgrade at 2B this offseason.  Second, 80% of the Giants rotation is hitting free agency I believe and adding Dallas may be an easy way to address one spot.  Maybe I’m totally off base here, but I could see something like this theoretically happening.

Been looking into La Stella more.  Think Giants may want to give Dubon a chance at an everyday role.  He was really good in AAA this year and his been up and down for 3 years now.  He's 27 now, so not getting any younger. 

Proposed this deal in @Kyyle23's "cannot respond" thread, but to piggyback off @Chicago White Sox idea, I love the Keuchel for La Stella framework, but think Sox need to add something decently valuable in there to shed Keuchel's whole deal.  Keuchel + Burger could work --- thoughts? Giants have an aging Longoria and really nothing of note at 1B.  I think this deal makes some sense as a framework.

Obviously La Stella has injury concerns, but he's a great fit on paper for the lineup.  Would definitely make re-signing Leury a priority, even though it probably already is.  

Edited October 29, 2021 by ChiSox59
sp

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Been looking into La Stella more.  Think Giants may want to give Dubon a chance at an everyday role.  He was really good in AAA this year and his been up and down for 3 years now.  He's 27 now, so not getting any younger. 

Proposed this deal in @Kyyle23's "cannot respond" thread, but to piggyback off @Chicago White Sox idea, I love the Kuechel for La Stella framework, but htink Sox need to add something decently valuable in there to shed Keuchel's whole deal.  Kuechel + Burger could work --- thoughts? Giants have an aging Longoria and really nothing of note at 1B.  I think this deal makes some sense as a framework.

Obviously La Stella has injury concerns, but he's a great fit on paper for the lineup.  Would definitely make re-signing Leury a priority, even though it probably already is.  

Yeah I love the framework too. Keuchel may pitch well in that ballpark.

A DH in NL does open up Longoria going to DH (and playing a little 3B and maybe 1B work?) and LaStella at 3B opening 2B though.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Bob Sacamano

[Buehrle>Wood]

A's have an impending fire sale.

[raBBit]

Keuchel ($18/18.5m), Kimbrel ($16/14.3m), Crochet and Burger for Price ($32/$15m), Bellinger ($15/$15m*), Gavin Lux and $10M. Luxury Tax number is listed second.

*Estimated Arb4.

R SS Anderson
S 3B Moncada
R CF Robert
R 1B Abreu
S C  Grandal
P LF/DH Eloy/Sheets/Vaughn/Bellinger
P RF Bellinger/Vaughn
P DH/LF Sheets/Vaughn
L 2B Lux

[caulfield12]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32767/matt-olson

Do you go crazy and trade Vaughn, Crochet and Burger for Olson?

Sheets would obviously be another name since the A's would be looking for LH cost-controlled replacement.

But would Sheets, Crochet and Burger really be enough?

If the window is really only 2-3 years, or they don't plan on approaching $200 million payrolls, this is one of the only ways to add a big bat without breaking the bank.

It's also the type of all-in move that Hahn might shy away from after the Kimbrel debacle.  You can't afford for him to be another Dunn and go into the tank.  I'm not sure how you get this done without Vaughn or Jimenez, either.

Edited October 29, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

44 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Keuchel ($18/18.5m), Kimbrel ($16/14.3m), Crochet and Burger for Price ($32/$15m), Bellinger ($15/$15m*), Gavin Lux and $10M. Luxury Tax number is listed second.

*Estimated Arb4.

R SS Anderson
S 3B Moncada
R CF Robert
R 1B Abreu
S C  Grandal
P LF/DH Eloy/Sheets/Vaughn/Bellinger
P RF Bellinger/Vaughn
P DH/LF Sheets/Vaughn
L 2B Lux

I can’t wrap my brain on who wins this one, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

[reiks12]

59 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

A's have an impending fire sale.

Chapman would look good in black

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can’t wrap my brain on who wins this one, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

The White Sox, if Bellinger returns to MVP form, but it would only be for 1-2 years, I think.

Lux isn’t surefire anymore, but would be at second.

 

Really don’t see them needing to absorb those massive per year deals for Keuchel and Kimbrel…and they’re selling low on Bellinger without giving him another half season to re-establish value.

Of course, the Dodgers would turn Crochet into another Urias somehow and we would hate Price as much if not moreso than Keuchel at this stage of his career and with his health history.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Chapman would look good in black

You’re going to move Moncada to second or trade him to another team?  Because he makes zero sense for the A’s unless they think he can return to 2019 form (in that stadium?) and they can flip him again before the contract catches up to their payroll restraints on the backside.   And Chapman is coming off a disappointing season offensively to boot.

[southsider2k5]

I might well be crazy here, but the timing of Dallas falling completely apart just screams the tacky baseball stuff affected him greatly.  I can't help but read something like this and wonder if this alone could fix a lot of his issues.

 

[southsider2k5]

Old friend alert

 

[macsandz]

4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not exactly sure what you're trying to get at - I didn't say anything to the contrary.  They'll get a some live arm and salary relief for him.  If they do better, great - I sincerely hope they do.  I do believe he is tradable for something, but it was and remains a god awful and short-sighted trade to move a cost-controlled Madrigal (not to mention Heuer who was actually more effective than Kimbrel ROS (which I called) for an overpaid reliever.  IDGAF if Madrigal rubbed the coaching staff the wrong way with his cocky attitude and strange demeanor.  There is absolutely nothing that will make that trade a passable one.  If you want to move Madrigal - fine - at least get something that helps the team in the short and long term.  Kimbrel did neither.  Massive failure. 

You framed the deal as Madrigal/Heuer for "2 months of Kimbrel" and that's simply not the returned value for that package regardless of how much you want to trash the trade.   

[Eminor3rd]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Old friend alert

 

FWIW, I've read he made some significant mechanical changes that allowed him to unlock much more consistent command. I wish I could say I saw it but Giants games are really hard to watch, so I didn't. It isn't hard to imagine that Vieira's raw stuff with improved command could be overwhelming in the NPB<,simply because that type of pitcher is so rare over there, but I don't think it NECESSARILY means it'll translate back to the MLB.

But he did have a hell of a year. He broke Ohtani's record for the fastest pitch recorded in NPB history, and he also set some kind of record for consecutive scoreless innings/appearances.

[Eminor3rd]

This team still needs starting pitching very badly. Last year's gambles, essentially, went as well as they possibly could have gone (Lynn and Rodon both having literal ceiling, career years and losing minimal time to injury), but even then we could see how gassed the staff was by the time the playoffs rolled around. You can't bet on that kind of luck again and you can't expect Keuchel to be anything more than a 5th starter at this point -- so the White Sox REALLY need to address it this offseason.

[South Side Hit Men]

19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I might well be crazy here, but the timing of Dallas falling completely apart just screams the tacky baseball stuff affected him greatly.  I can't help but read something like this and wonder if this alone could fix a lot of his issues.

 

That's one half of the daily double. Moving to another team that actually employs proper defensive shifting would be another. Unless Tony does not return, it's not happening here.

 

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

This team still needs starting pitching very badly. Last year's gambles, essentially, went as well as they possibly could have gone (Lynn and Rodon both having literal ceiling, career years and losing minimal time to injury), but even then we could see how gassed the staff was by the time the playoffs rolled around. You can't bet on that kind of luck again and you can't expect Keuchel to be anything more than a 5th starter at this point -- so the White Sox REALLY need to address it this offseason.

So this begs the question...what did the White Sox do that is so different from what, for example, Houston, Atlanta, or other playoff teams did, where the White Sox's staff broke so much earlier while other teams were able to make pushes down the stretch? The Dodgers, for another example, seem to have endured to the LCS, but that's with the loss of Bauer/replacement by Scherzer in there, they just really got hurt when Kershaw went out. The Braves staff might be teetering a bit right now without Morton. Why were the White Sox so spent by September 1? 

This isn't trying to accuse anyone of anything in this case, I genuinely do not have a good answer to this.

[Chicago White Sox]

39 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

This team still needs starting pitching very badly. Last year's gambles, essentially, went as well as they possibly could have gone (Lynn and Rodon both having literal ceiling, career years and losing minimal time to injury), but even then we could see how gassed the staff was by the time the playoffs rolled around. You can't bet on that kind of luck again and you can't expect Keuchel to be anything more than a 5th starter at this point -- so the White Sox REALLY need to address it this offseason.

I don’t disagree, but at the same time the division is an absolute joke so there is some margin for error there.  Out of curiosity, what do you have in mind for the rotation?

Edited October 29, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So this begs the question...what did the White Sox do that is so different from what, for example, Houston, Atlanta, or other playoff teams did, where the White Sox's staff broke so much earlier while other teams were able to make pushes down the stretch? The Dodgers, for another example, seem to have endured to the LCS, but that's with the loss of Bauer/replacement by Scherzer in there, they just really got hurt when Kershaw went out. The Braves staff might be teetering a bit right now without Morton. Why were the White Sox so spent by September 1? 

This isn't trying to accuse anyone of anything in this case, I genuinely do not have a good answer to this.

McCullers arm fell off, Kershaw's arm fell off, Morton broke his leg, they made it 2-4 weeks longer than most of the Sox pitching did.  i think most of that is on the individuals in this case.  Rodon was never going to make it 200 innings.  Cease making as long as he did was a complete surprise to me.

[Eminor3rd]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So this begs the question...what did the White Sox do that is so different from what, for example, Houston, Atlanta, or other playoff teams did, where the White Sox's staff broke so much earlier while other teams were able to make pushes down the stretch? The Dodgers, for another example, seem to have endured to the LCS, but that's with the loss of Bauer/replacement by Scherzer in there, they just really got hurt when Kershaw went out. The Braves staff might be teetering a bit right now without Morton. Why were the White Sox so spent by September 1? 

This isn't trying to accuse anyone of anything in this case, I genuinely do not have a good answer to this.

Well, I expect the answer is that they compiled a lot more useful depth. I don't have the encyclopedic knowledge of every contenders roster I used to have years ago to be able to list a convincing number of examples, so I'm more out on a limb than I normally like to be, but one quick interesting thing that might be a proxy for this: The White Sox had nine (9) different pitchers record a start in 2021, the Dodgers had nineteen (19). I imagine this represents the extreme end of differences, but I'd be willing to bet the Sox are near or at the bottom in that number, probably in the whole league. Also, it was always crazy to expect Rodon to be a workhorse all year; even if you assumed health, he simply hasn't carried that kind of workload for too long, if ever.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Eminor3rd