Offseason Thread

[Eminor3rd]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t disagree, but at the same time the division is an absolute joke so there is some margin for error there.  Out of curiosity, what do you have in mind for the rotation?

There's margin for error in the division for sure, but again I think the consequence here is being in shape to play in October. I think, in addition to they're "planned 5," they need to acquire at least a couple veteran 4/5 starter types that aren't too precious to be shuttled into the bullpen for stretches as necessary. Ideally, there's also one or two more Reynaldo Lopez's they've developed in AAA, ready to fight for a long-term spot two or three times a year. Obviously you can't just make that appear in one offseason, but I think that's the model that teams like the Dodgers and Rays have demonstrated is the way to use depth to reduce the randomness of the season and provide options going into the postseason.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

There's margin for error in the division for sure, but again I think the consequence here is being in shape to play in October. I think, in addition to they're "planned 5," they need to acquire at least a couple veteran 4/5 starter types that aren't too precious to be shuttled into the bullpen for stretches as necessary. Ideally, there's also one or two more Reynaldo Lopez's they've developed in AAA, ready to fight for a long-term spot two or three times a year. Obviously you can't just make that appear in one offseason, but I think that's the model that teams like the Dodgers and Rays have demonstrated is the way to use depth to reduce the randomness of the season and provide options going into the postseason.

That makes sense.  From my perspective, you already got Lopez in the major league plus Stiever, Lambert, & perhaps McClure in AAA.  I’d try for someone like Terehan or Folty on a minor league deal and maybe another arm who could be stretched in the bullpen.  Just seems like it’s hard / unrealistic to have three veteran #4 / #5 types in a bullpen unless you’re a team like the Dodgers.  That’s why having consistent waves of pitching prospects, even B & C tier ones, is so important because you need roster a lot of these guys in AAA.

[black jack]

On 10/25/2021 at 9:48 AM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I think for the first time in our lifetime the Sox are going to act like a big market team this off season.  

 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

There's margin for error in the division for sure, but again I think the consequence here is being in shape to play in October. I think, in addition to they're "planned 5," they need to acquire at least a couple veteran 4/5 starter types that aren't too precious to be shuttled into the bullpen for stretches as necessary. Ideally, there's also one or two more Reynaldo Lopez's they've developed in AAA, ready to fight for a long-term spot two or three times a year. Obviously you can't just make that appear in one offseason, but I think that's the model that teams like the Dodgers and Rays have demonstrated is the way to use depth to reduce the randomness of the season and provide options going into the postseason.

I think people for the most part agree. I did that fantasy “who gets us over the top” poll with semien vs scherzer and max won in 66-33

[SonofaRoache]

14 minutes ago, black jack said:

 

Can't teach an old dog new tricks. 

[almagest]

I think for the first time this offseason the White Sox are going to act like a team that has a seat at the table with the big market teams.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

McCullers arm fell off, Kershaw's arm fell off, Morton broke his leg, they made it 2-4 weeks longer than most of the Sox pitching did.  i think most of that is on the individuals in this case.  Rodon was never going to make it 200 innings.  Cease making as long as he did was a complete surprise to me.

So if I follow this with the Astros, it’s Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, with Christian Javier in a Lopez like role? With Verlander out for the year, that would be 7 deep, and Lopez would be 7 deep for the White Sox. Now that I walked through this in actually surprised that the Astros really weren’t using more pitchers than the White Sox, although they did have one extra one injured the whole year.

[oldsox]

20 hours ago, macsandz said:

You're right which is why he wasn't.  Kimbrel's contact includes a team option for 2022.  

Madrigal didn't make a lot of allies because he complained about everything the team asked him to do.  

I never heard that about Madrigal.  I'm not saying it's not true, I just never heard anything like it.  Where did you get that info?

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Well, I expect the answer is that they compiled a lot more useful depth. I don't have the encyclopedic knowledge of every contenders roster I used to have years ago to be able to list a convincing number of examples, so I'm more out on a limb than I normally like to be, but one quick interesting thing that might be a proxy for this: The White Sox had nine (9) different pitchers record a start in 2021, the Dodgers had nineteen (19). I imagine this represents the extreme end of differences, but I'd be willing to bet the Sox are near or at the bottom in that number, probably in the whole league. Also, it was always crazy to expect Rodon to be a workhorse all year; even if you assumed health, he simply hasn't carried that kind of workload for too long, if ever.

Well, that and $100 million more in OD payroll...remember, Dodgers also lost May for the season as well.  Duffy was never healthy after they added him.  Pretty sure there was another veteran add who gave them close to nothing as well.

Edited October 29, 2021 by caulfield12

[WBWSF]

7 minutes ago, oldsox said:

I never heard that about Madrigal.  I'm not saying it's not true, I just never heard anything like it.  Where did you get that info?

It was rumored that the White Sox wanted to extend Madrigals contract and he refused. When he wouldn't go for an extended contract, Hahn traded him.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

It was rumored that the White Sox wanted to extend Madrigals contract and he refused. When he wouldn't go for an extended contract, Hahn traded him.

And about his bordering on proselytizing Christianity rubbing some the wrong way....which should have been taken into consideration by those who looked into his background when you're investing that much in a player.

Edited October 29, 2021 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So if I follow this with the Astros, it’s Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, with Christian Javier in a Lopez like role? With Verlander out for the year, that would be 7 deep, and Lopez would be 7 deep for the White Sox. Now that I walked through this in actually surprised that the Astros really weren’t using more pitchers than the White Sox, although they did have one extra one injured the whole year.

Seven deep of credible starting options is the standard if you want to be able to survive the season and have a solid rotation available. It's why I proposed getting younger studs like Pablo Lopez, Tony Gonsolin, perhaps using the savings of trading off the high priced veterans and sign another top starter like Robbie Ray. Coupled with Giolito, Cease, and Kopech, you have a tremendous young pitching core which will extend the window, and the depth to absorb one or two major injuries the Sox were fortunate to avoid this season.

Eloy was the one core player I proposed trading, because he doesn't have the desire, nor likely the ability, to contribute consistently at the DH role, and you can get solid value for him now. Coupled with Mercedes, I believe Kim Ng would love to acquire those two players, as she has tons of pitching but little in terms of hitters.

Lynn also holds a lot of trade value know, he will likely regress between health and age. The Dodgers are likely one of the few, if any. other teams willing to take on $16M for Kimbrel (and if not, eat the $2M and move on). With Lux and Gallo two solid LH bats, you improve the lineup against RHP, and the pitchers will also benefit with having catchers able to block sliders in the dirt, catching plays at the plate. A new manager would implement modern defensive alignments, and will lay off the CS failed Hit and Runs, the wasted runs playing the infield in early in games, the poor defensive injury prone LFer and finally field a credible RF.

It would be difficult to pull off all of the moves, but at the same time it illustrates how keeping, not trading young cost controlled players is the key to creating and lengthening a long term competitive window. The Sox have moved in the opposite direction via their trades and signings the past two seasons, and have severely restricted flexibility while reducing their window.

Hitters $79.4M + Pitchers $67.0M = $146.4M

SS Anderson (Age July 1, 2022 29; 2022 actual/projected salary $9.5M) 3B Moncada (27 $13.8) # 1B Abreu (35, $19.7) RF Gallo (28 $9.5)^ CF Robert (24 $6.0) DH Sheets (26 $0.6) ^C Contreras (30 $9.0) LF Vaughn (24 $0.6) 2B Lux (24 $0.6)^

Bench: Gomes (34 $3.5), Engel (30 $2.0), Garcia (31 $4.0), Gonzalez (25 $0.6).

SP: Giolito (27, $8.3), Ray (30, $30.0), Pablo Lopez (26, $2.5), Kopech (26, $0.6), Cease (26, $0.6), Gonsolin (27, $0.6).

RP: Hendriks (33, $13.3), Bummer (28, $2.5), Crochet (23, $0.6M), Reynaldo Lopez (28, $2.0), Ruiz (27, $0.6), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0)

Trades:

• Eloy and Mercedes to Miami for Pablo Lopez.
• Lynn, Keuchel and Kimbrel to Los Angeles N.L. for Gavin Lux and Tony Gonsolin.
• Grandal to New York A.L. for Gallo.
• Burger, Collins, prospects to Chicago N.L. for Willson Contreras.

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Seven deep of credible starting options is the standard if you want to be able to survive the season and have a solid rotation available. It's why I proposed getting younger studs like Pablo Lopez, Tony Gonsolin, perhaps using the savings of trading off the high priced veterans and sign another top starter like Robbie Ray. Coupled with Giolito, Cease, and Kopech, you have a tremendous young pitching core which will extend the window, and the depth to absorb one or two major injuries the Sox were fortunate to avoid this season.

Eloy was the one core player I proposed trading, because he doesn't have the desire, nor likely the ability, to contribute consistently at the DH role, and you can get solid value for him now. Coupled with Mercedes, I believe Kim Ng would love to acquire those two players, as she has tons of pitching but little in terms of hitters.

Lynn also holds a lot of trade value know, he will likely regress between health and age. The Dodgers are likely one of the few, if any. other teams willing to take on $16M for Kimbrel (and if not, eat the $2M and move on). With Lux and Gallo two solid LH bats, you improve the lineup against RHP, and the pitchers will also benefit with having catchers able to block sliders in the dirt, catching plays at the plate. A new manager would implement modern defensive alignments, and will lay off the CS failed Hit and Runs, the wasted runs playing the infield in early in games, the poor defensive injury prone LFer and finally field a credible RF.

It would be difficult to pull off all of the moves, but at the same time it illustrates how keeping, not trading young cost controlled players is the key to creating and lengthening a long term competitive window. The Sox have moved in the opposite direction via their trades and signings the past two seasons, and have severely restricted flexibility while reducing their window.

Hitters $79.4M + Pitchers $67.0M = $146.4M

SS Anderson (Age July 1, 2022 29; 2022 actual/projected salary $9.5M) 3B Moncada (27 $13.8) # 1B Abreu (35, $19.7) RF Gallo (28 $9.5)^ CF Robert (24 $6.0) DH Sheets (26 $0.6) ^C Contreras (30 $9.0) LF Vaughn (24 $0.6) 2B Lux (24 $0.6)^

Bench: Gomes (34 $3.5), Engel (30 $2.0), Garcia (31 $4.0), Gonzalez (25 $0.6).

SP: Giolito (27, $8.3), Ray (30, $30.0), Pablo Lopez (26, $2.5), Kopech (26, $0.6), Cease (26, $0.6), Gonsolin (27, $0.6).

RP: Hendriks (33, $13.3), Bummer (28, $2.5), Crochet (23, $0.6M), Reynaldo Lopez (28, $2.0), Ruiz (27, $0.6), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0)

Trades:

• Eloy and Mercedes to Miami for Pablo Lopez.
• Lynn, Keuchel and Kimbrel to Los Angeles N.L. for Gavin Lux and Tony Gonsolin.
• Grandal to New York A.L. for Gallo.
• Burger, Collins, prospects to Chicago N.L. for Willson Contreras.

Contreras trade isn’t going to happen for that return, and Ray at $30 million is way too big a risk…that’s almost 1/5th payroll.

Also, the Dodgers will get May back next year in the second half, no need to bloat their payroll when they will have some flexibility with Bauer, Kershaw (maybe), Scherzer and K.Jansen coming off.  They are going to be financially astute with their tweaks, and won’t go back to all-in if they’re still struggling at the trade deadline.  Could even retrench and auction off Trea Turner and do a retool on the fly, which Friedman hasn't faced doing since his TB days.

They do have to decide what to do with Bellinger…with Muncy coming back.

[oldsox]

5 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

It was rumored that the White Sox wanted to extend Madrigals contract and he refused. When he wouldn't go for an extended contract, Hahn traded him.

Thanks.  Makes Hahn look like Mr. Ruthless.  Not that that is a criticism, just never heard him described in this fashion.

[SonofaRoache]

43 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And about his bordering on proselytizing Christianity rubbing some the wrong way....which should have been taken into consideration by those who looked into his background when you're investing that much in a player.

Sounds like excuses being made for a bad trade. 

[Eminor3rd]

48 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, that and $100 million more in OD payroll...remember, Dodgers also lost May for the season as well.  Duffy was never healthy after they added him.  Pretty sure there was another veteran add who gave them close to nothing as well.

Right, that's one way they accomplish it. I just think it's frustrating that it's been pretty well established that their style of pitching depth is highly associated with winning for nearly ten years now, and the White Sox are still willing to go "all in" with 3.5 starters and a prayer. And while it isn't fair to expect any team to spend like the highest spending team, I would argue there's a GULF of difference between the Dodgers excess and what the White Sox have done. I mean, try to remember how insane it was to have penciled in both Rodon (who was a TOTAL lottery ticket) AND Dylan Cease (who was not at ALL established). Both those things worked out, but neither was likely to work out, and a couple $8-10mm dollar one year deals could have substantially mitigated the risk. Even if you could convince me their scouting was able to see something that made it likelier those guys would do what they did, it's hard to make an argument not to buy the insurance policy nonetheless. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Sounds like excuses being made for a bad trade. 

Well, that was out there well before the trade was made…but it does make a convenient excuse.  Just not sure how well it reflects on the organization, ultimately.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Contreras trade isn’t going to happen for that return, and Ray at $30 million is way too big a risk…that’s almost 1/5th payroll.

Also, the Dodgers will get May back next year in the second half, no need to bloat their payroll when they will have some flexibility with Bauer, Kershaw (maybe), Scherzer and K.Jansen coming off.  They are going to be financially astute with their tweaks, and won’t go back to all-in if they’re still struggling at the trade deadline.  Could even retrench and auction off Trea Turner and do a retool on the fly, which Friedman hasn't faced doing since his TB days.

They do have to decide what to do with Bellinger…with Muncy coming back.

1. I think Lynn and Kimbrel makes it enticing as they are both solid pitchers. Keuchel also is a good insurance plan to eat 100-150 innings, should be effective in the NL/Dodgers Stadium, is the only bad contract there and it's only $19M if they don't let him vest. Beyond egregious penalties in new CBA, I expect the Dodgers to not give a crap about paying any luxury tax.
2. I put a high ceiling on Ray, but it likely will cost much less (say $22-$25M AAV over 3-4 years). Spotrac pegs his value at $18M. I like the fact he excelled in the toughest offensive division.
3. The $146M allows also for an additional QO offer on Rodon, but my initial assumption is he rejects this and tests the market. If they sign him, $163M is still a reasonable payroll with JR, perhaps they then nix Ray and sign another leaving payroll in the $140M range. 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Right, that's one way they accomplish it. I just think it's frustrating that it's been pretty well established that their style of pitching depth is highly associated with winning for nearly ten years now, and the White Sox are still willing to go "all in" with 3.5 starters and a prayer. And while it isn't fair to expect any team to spend like the highest spending team, I would argue there's a GULF of difference between the Dodgers excess and what the White Sox have done. I mean, try to remember how insane it was to have penciled in both Rodon (who was a TOTAL lottery ticket) AND Dylan Cease (who was not at ALL established). Both those things worked out, but neither was likely to work out, and a couple $8-10mm dollar one year deals could have substantially mitigated the risk. Even if you could convince me their scouting was able to see something that made it likelier those guys would do what they did, it's hard to make an argument not to buy the insurance policy nonetheless. 

Yes, and it’s hindsight, but it would have been better to spread the Keuchel outlay over two of those guys in the $8-10 million range…like the Giants did behind Gausman, in Wood and DeSclafani.  T.Walker would have been another.

Unfortunately, there’s just as many Wachas and Arrietas when you start diving into that tier of the market.  If we took Paxton, we would have been screwed.

Always comes back to pro scouting and talent evaluation/projection.

Hard to see much evidence that Hahn or Haber are specialists in this area, but they at least have to bring the right people on board with that niche aptitude. 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

1. I think Lynn and Kimbrel makes it enticing as they are both solid pitchers. Keuchel also is a good insurance plan to eat 100-150 innings, should be effective in the NL/Dodgers Stadium, is the only bad contract there and it's only $19M if they don't let him vest. Beyond egregious penalties in new CBA, I expect the Dodgers to not give a crap about paying any luxury tax.
2. I put a high ceiling on Ray, but it likely will cost much less (say $22-$25M AAV over 3-4 years). Spotrac pegs his value at $18M. I like the fact he excelled in the toughest offensive division.
3. The $146M allows also for an additional QO offer on Rodon, but my initial assumption is he rejects this and tests the market. If they sign him, $163M is still a reasonable payroll with JR, perhaps they then nix Ray and sign another leaving payroll in the $140M range. 

Look at Ray’s longer term track record.

Tons of walks and strikeouts, but before this season, he usually struggled to get out of the fifth.

You can’t afford that risk at $30 million.  In many ways, he’s a lot like Blake Snell, a talented but enigmatic/inconsistent performer who’s more of a luxury for Top 8 payroll teams.

And from a marketing standpoint, his addition might not even mean more than ten additional season ticket packages sold. 
 

Just feels like spending that much on a guy in his FA push year is asking for trouble when he gets a multi-year or you have to overpay that dramatically for just 1-2 seasons. 

Edited October 30, 2021 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Look at Ray’s longer term track record.

Tons of walks and strikeouts, but before this season, he usually struggled to get out of the fifth.

You can’t afford that risk at $30 million.  In many ways, he’s a lot like Blake Snell, a talented but enigmatic/inconsistent performer who’s more of a luxury for Top 8 payroll teams.

And from a marketing standpoint, his addition might not even mean more than ten additional season ticket packages sold. 
 

Just feels like spending that much on a guy in his FA push year is asking for trouble when he gets a multi-year or you have to overpay that dramatically for just 1-2 seasons. 

I don’t believe he is the key to what I am laying out, there are other solid options.

Ill take a deeper dive once the QOs are accepted / rejected, including Rodon, to determine the true FA class. FA graphs does a great job with their consensus estimates in terms of dollar and length, juxtaposed against prijected fWAR.

Don’t expect much until a CBA is final, perhaps in time to play a meaningful 2022.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Seven deep of credible starting options is the standard if you want to be able to survive the season and have a solid rotation available. It's why I proposed getting younger studs like Pablo Lopez, Tony Gonsolin, perhaps using the savings of trading off the high priced veterans and sign another top starter like Robbie Ray. Coupled with Giolito, Cease, and Kopech, you have a tremendous young pitching core which will extend the window, and the depth to absorb one or two major injuries the Sox were fortunate to avoid this season.

Eloy was the one core player I proposed trading, because he doesn't have the desire, nor likely the ability, to contribute consistently at the DH role, and you can get solid value for him now. Coupled with Mercedes, I believe Kim Ng would love to acquire those two players, as she has tons of pitching but little in terms of hitters.

Lynn also holds a lot of trade value know, he will likely regress between health and age. The Dodgers are likely one of the few, if any. other teams willing to take on $16M for Kimbrel (and if not, eat the $2M and move on). With Lux and Gallo two solid LH bats, you improve the lineup against RHP, and the pitchers will also benefit with having catchers able to block sliders in the dirt, catching plays at the plate. A new manager would implement modern defensive alignments, and will lay off the CS failed Hit and Runs, the wasted runs playing the infield in early in games, the poor defensive injury prone LFer and finally field a credible RF.

It would be difficult to pull off all of the moves, but at the same time it illustrates how keeping, not trading young cost controlled players is the key to creating and lengthening a long term competitive window. The Sox have moved in the opposite direction via their trades and signings the past two seasons, and have severely restricted flexibility while reducing their window.

Hitters $79.4M + Pitchers $67.0M = $146.4M

SS Anderson (Age July 1, 2022 29; 2022 actual/projected salary $9.5M) 3B Moncada (27 $13.8) # 1B Abreu (35, $19.7) RF Gallo (28 $9.5)^ CF Robert (24 $6.0) DH Sheets (26 $0.6) ^C Contreras (30 $9.0) LF Vaughn (24 $0.6) 2B Lux (24 $0.6)^

Bench: Gomes (34 $3.5), Engel (30 $2.0), Garcia (31 $4.0), Gonzalez (25 $0.6).

SP: Giolito (27, $8.3), Ray (30, $30.0), Pablo Lopez (26, $2.5), Kopech (26, $0.6), Cease (26, $0.6), Gonsolin (27, $0.6).

RP: Hendriks (33, $13.3), Bummer (28, $2.5), Crochet (23, $0.6M), Reynaldo Lopez (28, $2.0), Ruiz (27, $0.6), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0)

Trades:

• Eloy and Mercedes to Miami for Pablo Lopez.
• Lynn, Keuchel and Kimbrel to Los Angeles N.L. for Gavin Lux and Tony Gonsolin.
• Grandal to New York A.L. for Gallo.
• Burger, Collins, prospects to Chicago N.L. for Willson Contreras.

You lost me at trading Lance Lynn.  Like it literally would never happen after signing that extension and it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO.  You simply don’t trade a guy like Lance when you’re trying to win a World Series.

Edited October 30, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You lost me at trading Lance Lynn.  Like it literally would never happen after signing that extension and it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO.  You simply don’t trade a guy like Lance when you’re trying to win a World Series.

Well yeah, Lynn is a risk, but no guarantee Gonsolin is more than a fifth starter/swing guy.  For all we know, Lopez could fulfill the same role again...along with Cordero.

[Jerksticks]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You lost me at trading Lance Lynn.  Like it literally would never happen after signing that extension and it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO.  You simply don’t trade a guy like Lance when you’re trying to win a World Series.

Lol yea.  I always love the trade proposals that equal:

”Let’s dick the guy that just said he wants to be here and signed a friendly extension”. 
 

Players probably just love that.  It’s only their lives, who cares? ?

[South Side Hit Men]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You lost me at trading Lance Lynn.  Like it literally would never happen after signing that extension and it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO.  You simply don’t trade a guy like Lance when you’re trying to win a World Series.

I understand, and with Tony here, I expect youth to continue be slashed in favor of veterans.

In real time, I supported the Lynn trade and Hendriks FA signing due to the $, cost and upside, and still think they were solid deals. If the Sox bump payroll to $180M-$200M, they can afford Lynn and fill their other holes, though I still contend committing to weight reduction will allow him to pitch without stress to his knee. I guess we will have to wait to see how both play out.

I’d take just about any return if they could trade Keuchel and Kimbrel, and then commit to spending the $33M saved wisely. Only added Lynn to make it a realistic intriguing offer to the Dodgers, and to net a reasonable return, with upside and cost control.