Offseason Thread

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

1.You are saying this with the benefit of hindsight.  

2. Acting like we somehow couldn’t beat the Astros in the post-season on July 31st is straight up dumb.  Are you really going to stand by this point?  

 3. Saying the move was “doomed to failure from conception” is just completely untrue and laughable.  Other than criticizing the price, which is completely fair, you haven’t made one point that isn’t hindsight based.  

4. Many of the best organizations in baseball wanted Craig Kimbrel, including the Dodgers and Rays, and yet half of the posters here on Soxtalk including yourself knew the best reliever in baseball was going to fold like a house of cards down the stretch.

 5. It sucks that we don’t have Madrigal, but you need to separate the loss of him from what the addition of Kimbrel should have done for our post-season chances.  

 

6. The trade didn’t work out for us, but the only part that was dumb was the price we paid.  

7. Had we won a World Series and Kimbrel is still the best reliever in baseball sitting on a 1/$16M deal no one would be bitching right now.

1. Incorrect. I hated the trade before it was made.

2. Houston was 5-2 vs the SOX before the TDL, and it wasn't even close. Sure, there were some pieces out with injury, but neither Moncada nor Eloy made the difference. Houston is/was that much better than the SOX, full stop.

3. There's incontrovertible evidence that it was doomed to failure: The SOX got their asses kicked. And it wasn't close enough for a RP, no matter HOW GOOD, to have made the difference. The only difference is that I knew it was doomed to failure beforehand, whereas you drank the kool-aid. 

4. Who gives a shit what other teams wanted? The SOX needed much more to be ahead of their rivals at the TDL. LAD only needed a few minor touches to return to the WS. And while you said that RPs are usually "the most valuable pieces at the TDL," you should be MORE concerned with THIS org getting what THIS ORG needs to win. Clearly, it was never an expensive RP, and many of us knew this beforehand. 

5. Here's a question for you: Are the SOX at the beginning, middle, or end of their window? If they were at "the last dance," where a Hail Mary, last-ditch trade to try to win "one more time" before the core goes and signs elsewhere, i might have been more supportive of this move.

But given that I believe(d) that the SOX are/were more towards the beginning of the window, AND that this team was not as good as its post-season enemies, hated this move with the FIRE of 10,000 Arabian suns.

6. Once again, did you believe that Kimbrel ALONE would have made the difference? If so, please explain. This team was worse than Houston, worse than TB, and possibly, worse than Boston (with Sale coming back). Over in the NL, LAD and SF were flat-out better than this team. By my count, thats 6 teams in the way of a WS.

A more conservative approach was warranted, and aiming for a more opportune season was the better move.

7. Well, as I knew beforehand, this team wasn't going to win the WS. And Kimbrel's only been good for ~30IP over the past 4 seasons, so he may not be "the best reliever" anymore. And he's aging, and this payroll can't support 2 expensive closers, with all the other gaping holes in the roster. Oh, and BTW, we paid 10 seasons of control for him. 

Edited November 1, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Kyyle23]

42 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Eaton was released on July 13.  Looks like Sox are on the hook for his $1 Million buyout.

Who cares, it's not my money.  He was injured for an entire month and released, he meant nothing to the team nor did he affect their trajectory going forward.  He's gone, it's over

like who fucking cares what the white Sox are on the hook for in 2021?  The money was spent

[Middle Buffalo]

8 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Incorrect. I hated the trade before it was made.

How do you hate a trade before it was made?

[35thstreetswarm]

10 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Incorrect. I hated the trade before it was made.

2. Houston was 5-2 vs the SOX before the TDL, and it wasn't even close. Sure, there were some pieces out with injury, but neither Moncada nor Eloy made the difference. Houston is/was that much better than the SOX, full stop.

3. There's incontrovertible evidence that it was doomed to failure: The SOX got their asses kicked. And it wasn't close enough for a RP, no matter HOW GOOD, to have made the difference. The only difference is that I knew it was doomed to failure beforehand, whereas you drank the kool-aid. 

4. Who gives a shit what other teams wanted? The SOX needed much more to be ahead of their rivals at the TDL. LAD only needed a few minor touches to return to the WS. And while you said that RPs are usually "the most valuable pieces at the TDL," you should be MORE concerned with THIS org getting what THIS ORG needs to win. Clearly, it was never an expensive RP, and many of us knew this beforehand. 

5. Here's a question for you: Are the SOX at the beginning, middle, or end of their window? If they were at "the last dance," where a Hail Mary, last-ditch trade to try to win "one more time" before the core goes and signs elsewhere, i might have been more supportive of this move.

But given that I believe(d) that the SOX are/were more towards the beginning of the window, AND that this team was not as good as its post-season enemies, hated this move with the FIRE of 10,000 Arabian suns.

6. Once again, did you believe that Kimbrel ALONE would have made the difference? If so, please explain. This team was worse than Houston, worse than TB, and possibly, worse than Boston (with Sale coming back). Over in the NL, LAD and SF were flat-out better than this team. By my count, thats 6 teams in the way of a WS.

A more conservative approach was warranted, and aiming for a more opportune season was the better move.

7. Well, as I knew beforehand, this team wasn't going to win the WS. And Kimbrel's only been good for ~30IP over the past 4 seasons, so he may not be "the best reliever" anymore. And he's aging, and this payroll can't support 2 expensive closers, with all the other gaping holes in the roster. Oh, and BTW, we paid 10 seasons of control for him. 

Somebody doesn't know what "hindsight" means.  This is laughable, and reads like a test question in a class on logical fallacies.  By the way, the Astros' moves at the deadline were all idiotic because they weren't going to get past the Braves--so what was the point?  Unless the Astros pull it out, then the Braves' moves were all stupid.  Stay tuned!

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Somebody doesn't know what "hindsight" means.  This is laughable, and reads like a test question in a class on logical fallacies.  By the way, the Astros' moves at the deadline were all idiotic because they weren't going to get past the Braves--so what was the point?  Unless the Astros pull it out, then the Braves' moves were all stupid.  Stay tuned!

Ok, what other evidence did you need?

The shitty record vs.winning teams?

The shitty road record?

The shitty record vs the AL playoff teams?

The inferior record vs their pythagorean record?

 

Help us out with exactly what evidence pointed towards this team winning the WS.

[35thstreetswarm]

10 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

How do you hate a trade before it was made?

You'd be surprised.  Lots of folks on this board hate next year's deadline moves already!

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

How do you hate a trade before it was made?

Fair point; I was trying to abbreviate a long post. Ill attempt to clarify:

When it became a rumor, I hated the idea of making a big trade when the team wasn't as good as their rivals. I hated selling low on two youngsters, and squandering 10 years of control. I also hated the clowns who brought us James Shields at the TDL making such a big move in general, because I don't rate KW and RH at all.

Better?

[Snopek]

27 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Ok, what other evidence did you need?

The shitty record vs.winning teams?

The shitty road record?

The shitty record vs the AL playoff teams?

The inferior record vs their pythagorean record?

 

Help us out with exactly what evidence pointed towards this team winning the WS.

If I'm understanding your argument correctly, it was quite literally impossible for the sox to win the world series this year, yes?

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Snopek said:

If I'm understanding your argument correctly, it was quite literally impossible for the sox to win the world series this year, yes?

I didn't say "impossible," did I?

 

Given the state of the team both before and after the TDL, what happened this post season was the most likely outcome. There was no RP/2B combo available @ the TDL to take this team past the others in the AL playoffs, let alone the teams in the NL.

Do you disagree?

[Snopek]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I didn't say "impossible," did I?

 

Given the state of the team both before and after the TDL, what happened this post season was the most likely outcome. There was no RP/2B combo available @ the TDL to take this team past the others in the AL playoffs, let alone the teams in the NL.

Do you disagree?

Well, when you say there is "incontrovertible evidence that it was doomed to failure," yes, you actually are saying that it was impossible.

For the record, I went into the Astros series feeling that the Sox were not the favorite. But being the weirdo that I am, I wanted to actually see the games played instead of relying on your evidence that's not actually evidence.

[southsider2k5]

54 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Ok, what other evidence did you need?

The shitty record vs.winning teams?

The shitty road record?

The shitty record vs the AL playoff teams?

The inferior record vs their pythagorean record?

 

Help us out with exactly what evidence pointed towards this team winning the WS.

Atlanta was 26-31 in one run games, 31-37 against teams over .500, played 8 games under their pythagorean expectation.  They were 19-19 vs playoff teams, but had an above .500 record against exactly one of them in STL, going under .500 against Boston, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rays.

[kleedawg]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Atlanta was 26-31 in one run games, 31-37 against teams over .500, played 8 games under their pythagorean expectation.  They were 19-19 vs playoff teams, but had an above .500 record against exactly one of them in STL, going under .500 against Boston, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rays.

beat me to it, but I'll add the sox were just bad against 2 teams... the astros and yankees. They won the season series against the red sox, a's, jays, & cardinals. They split the series with TB. 

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Atlanta was 26-31 in one run games, 31-37 against teams over .500, played 8 games under their pythagorean expectation.  They were 19-19 vs playoff teams, but had an above .500 record against exactly one of them in STL, going under .500 against Boston, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rays.

 

[Snopek]

22 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Atlanta was 26-31 in one run games, 31-37 against teams over .500, played 8 games under their pythagorean expectation.  They were 19-19 vs playoff teams, but had an above .500 record against exactly one of them in STL, going under .500 against Boston, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rays.

Seems like there was a glitch in the simulation.

[Middle Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair point; I was trying to abbreviate a long post…Better?

It was the first point you made in the post. Also the shortest of your 7 talking points.

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Atlanta was 26-31 in one run games, 31-37 against teams over .500, played 8 games under their pythagorean expectation.  They were 19-19 vs playoff teams, but had an above .500 record against exactly one of them in STL, going under .500 against Boston, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rays.

They were 9-9 in one run games after the trade deadline, it looks like they took 2/3 from San Francisco in Atlanta, lost 2/3 in San Francisco, were swept by the Dodgers in LA, lost a 2 game series at home to the Yankees, swept the Cardinals in St. Louis. Lesser competition, but they also had a 9 game winning streak entirely on the road in there.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Incorrect. I hated the trade before it was made.

2. Houston was 5-2 vs the SOX before the TDL, and it wasn't even close. Sure, there were some pieces out with injury, but neither Moncada nor Eloy made the difference. Houston is/was that much better than the SOX, full stop.

3. There's incontrovertible evidence that it was doomed to failure: The SOX got their asses kicked. And it wasn't close enough for a RP, no matter HOW GOOD, to have made the difference. The only difference is that I knew it was doomed to failure beforehand, whereas you drank the kool-aid. 

4. Who gives a shit what other teams wanted? The SOX needed much more to be ahead of their rivals at the TDL. LAD only needed a few minor touches to return to the WS. And while you said that RPs are usually "the most valuable pieces at the TDL," you should be MORE concerned with THIS org getting what THIS ORG needs to win. Clearly, it was never an expensive RP, and many of us knew this beforehand. 

5. Here's a question for you: Are the SOX at the beginning, middle, or end of their window? If they were at "the last dance," where a Hail Mary, last-ditch trade to try to win "one more time" before the core goes and signs elsewhere, i might have been more supportive of this move.

But given that I believe(d) that the SOX are/were more towards the beginning of the window, AND that this team was not as good as its post-season enemies, hated this move with the FIRE of 10,000 Arabian suns.

6. Once again, did you believe that Kimbrel ALONE would have made the difference? If so, please explain. This team was worse than Houston, worse than TB, and possibly, worse than Boston (with Sale coming back). Over in the NL, LAD and SF were flat-out better than this team. By my count, thats 6 teams in the way of a WS.

A more conservative approach was warranted, and aiming for a more opportune season was the better move.

7. Well, as I knew beforehand, this team wasn't going to win the WS. And Kimbrel's only been good for ~30IP over the past 4 seasons, so he may not be "the best reliever" anymore. And he's aging, and this payroll can't support 2 expensive closers, with all the other gaping holes in the roster. Oh, and BTW, we paid 10 seasons of control for him. 

So let me get this straight.  You knew that our rotation was going to be completely useless against Houston in the playoffs (despite being the best in baseball at the TDL) and that our offense which was generally good for the most part and getting Robert & Eloy back was going to be mostly crickets in October?  Is this all based on the seven game sample against the Astros when we had multiple men down?  Also, how are the Braves beating the Astros right now when objectively speaking every baseball expert would have picked us as the superior team over Atlanta heading into the playoffs.  Are you actually arguing that teams can’t get hot in the playoffs and actually win the whole thing?

Ultimately it appears you are very upset about the price we paid for Kimbrel (which is a totally fair take) and are unable to be objective about any other element of the deal.  Like seriously, I shouldn’t have to explain to you how valuable elite relief pitching is in the playoffs and that applies to all teams.  And regardless of what you think, Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball at the time with a 0.50 ERA and 100th percentile xwOBA.  Arguably the best two organizations in all of baseball were highly interested in him and willing to pay a substantial price despite this “only been good for ~30 IP over the past four seasons” (which is both untrue and a poor attempt at hyperbole).  If you know better than the Rays and Dodgers’ pro scouting staffs then you are clearly in the wrong profession.

[SCCWS]

14 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not going to take anything away from Atlanta, but them picking up “4 good outfielders” is because they had 0 good outfielders at the time.  Also, most deadlines the most valuable pieces are elite back-end relievers.  b**** all you want about the price, but people keep acting like pursuing what should have been an elite bullpen addition was somehow stupid and it’s absolutely laughable.

As I posted in a separate thread, looking at the bullpens in ALCS and WS, Hahn made the right move. But Kimbrel's woes resulted in a bad result of a good move.

[BrittBurnsFan]

4 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

As I posted in a separate thread, looking at the bullpens in ALCS and WS, Hahn made the right move. But Kimbrel's woes resulted in a bad result of a good move. 

But what if he had found another arm like Tepera at a much cheaper price?  All 20/20 now...but another Tepera-like piece in the pen would have been "enough".  Although...sadly as it turned out our post-season experience didn't allow us to benefit from a strong 'pen anyway. 

[GreenSox]

44 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

As I posted in a separate thread, looking at the bullpens in ALCS and WS, Hahn made the right move. But Kimbrel's woes resulted in a bad result of a good move.

The Kimbrel trade was a classic buy high trade.  

[oldsox]

3 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Who cares, it's not my money.  He was injured for an entire month and released, he meant nothing to the team nor did he affect their trajectory going forward.  He's gone, it's over

like who fucking cares what the white Sox are on the hook for in 2021?  The money was spent

Relax, man.  It was just a tidbit of information that was appropriate for this thread on this message board.

[Chimpton]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Ok, what other evidence did you need?

The shitty record vs.winning teams?

The shitty road record?

The shitty record vs the AL playoff teams?

The inferior record vs their pythagorean record?

 

Help us out with exactly what evidence pointed towards this team winning the WS.

You should try working as a demotivational speaker with that 'no can do' attitude!

[SonofaRoache]

1 minute ago, Chimpton said:

You should try working as a demotivational speaker with that 'no can do' attitude!

He is right though. The evidence was there but people didn't want to see it, then will use hindsight as an argument. 

[maloney.adam]

They are going to spend money this offseason to improve the ball club. It’s just a matter of how much. 

[Chimpton]

7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

He is right though. The evidence was there but people didn't want to see it, then will use hindsight as an argument. 

So let's not bother trying because on paper we are not the best team in baseball? Let's not try to improve at the trade deadline as we 'were never going to win it'. It may have escaped your attention but just winning the division is an achievement by White Sox standards, and back to back play off appearances has never been achieved before, but let's not bother because the Astros are better than us.