Offseason Thread

[wegner]

12 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

TLR was brought in here to get us to the post season first and foremost. He was outcoached big time but our pitchers shit the bed against Houston too. They didn't give us any chance in that series. Coming into this season Minnesota was the slight favorite to win the ALC. 

I do not recall that being the sentiment of Rick Hahn when he said what he was looking for in a manager at the press conference announcing the firing of Renteria.

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Everybody say it with me! TONY STINKS, TONY STINKS, TONY STINKS!

TONY STINKS! But he is our stinker, unfortuantely.  

I don't like the guy and would quite literally prefer just about anyone else.  But this man is 2nd all time in MLB wins - he knows a thing or two about managing the game.  I am hopeful that he will improve drastically next season and much of the rust we saw this year is gone.  I think the Sox big lead caused some issues that maybe a more competitive division next season will help solve.  The Sox simply got complacent, and just we're able to snap out of it when it mattered.  Some of that is on Tony, and certainly some of that is on the players.  Its obvious the guys like him -- and its also obvious TLR at least was one of the greatest managers ever -- he can certainly lead this this team to championship, even if I wish it was anybody else.  

[South Side Hit Men]

Considering Sox likely budget, FO, manager and current roster, I (and I believe most here would concur) this plan would be the upper limit of what Sox fans could hope for, with the exception that I wouldn’t relegate Vaughn to the bench, and would be creative in terms of what they could get for Eloy or Sheets.

https://soxmachine.com/2021/11/01/hulk-smashs-measured-offseason-plan/

• Sign and trade Kimbrel for Kiermaier.
• Offer QO to Rodon (with the expected rejection)
• Sign FAs Semien, Leury, Tepera and Wilson Ramos.

[Snopek]

31 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

That is called a prayer. We needed to win games to get that 2 seed to have any chance against Houston as we don't pitch well there. Great teams fix issues as they arise and try not to wait until the post season happens to possibly win. The Dodgers won it all last year and didn't just let games play out, they brought in Max and Trea. 

Okay, but what does that have to do with us as fans?

3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

He is right though. The evidence was there but people didn't want to see it, then will use hindsight as an argument. 

 Because your initial statement here seemed to insinuate that the fans should have approached the playoffs knowing the Sox were going to lose. And if that's not what you're saying, I'll go back to my original question of what do you mean "people didn't want to see it"?

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I didn't say "impossible," did I?

 

Given the state of the team both before and after the TDL, what happened this post season was the most likely outcome. There was no RP/2B combo available @ the TDL to take this team past the others in the AL playoffs, let alone the teams in the NL.

Do you disagree?

Trea Turner combined with someone else might have worked...

[southsider2k5]

 

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Considering Sox likely budget, FO, manager and current roster, I (and I believe most here would concur) this plan would be the upper limit of what Sox fans could hope for, with the exception that I wouldn’t relegate Vaughn to the bench, and would be creative in terms of what they could get for Eloy or Sheets.

https://soxmachine.com/2021/11/01/hulk-smashs-measured-offseason-plan/

• Sign and trade Kimbrel for Kiermaier.
• Offer QO to Rodon (with the expected rejection)
• Sign FAs Semien, Leury, Tepera and Wilson Ramos.

The Rays will never spend that type of money on a closer in a million years...especially with their impression from when he pitched for Boston against the division.

He would increase payroll by 25-30% alone...and Kiermaier gets so much of his value from CF defense, so we are still adding to the payroll by getting an older Engel at this point in his career.

Unless we already could predict Luis Robert going down, it seems like too much of a luxury...unless we are going to up it significantly.   You add Kiermaier l together with Leury, you should have just by gone after K.Wong and used internal youth and FA castoffs for the bench.

We need finishing pieces to put this team over the top...Kiermaier 3-5 years ago would have been fine, but it would mean sacrificing Eloy or Vaughn.

Edited November 1, 2021 by caulfield12

[poppysox]

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Atlanta was 26-31 in one run games, 31-37 against teams over .500, played 8 games under their pythagorean expectation.  They were 19-19 vs playoff teams, but had an above .500 record against exactly one of them in STL, going under .500 against Boston, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rays.

These forums have sure gotten classy.  I was expecting to go the whole offseason without hearing about Pythagorean expectations.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Rays will never spend that type of money on a closer in a million years...especially with their impression from when he pitched for Boston against the division.

He would increase payroll by 25-30% alone...and Kiermaier gets so much of his value from CF defense, so we are still adding to the payroll by getting an older Engel at this point in his career.

Unless we already could predict Luis Robert going down, it seems like too much of a luxury...unless we are going to up it significantly.   You add Kiermaier l together with Leury, you should have just by gone after K.Wong and used internal youth and FA castoffs for the bench.

Kiermaier is a sunk cost, and the article proposes the Sox would also send cash.

Not sure the Sox can count on Engel staying healthy. Still think you can extract solid young cost controlled pitching with Miami sending them Eloy and Mercedes. They have many pitchers but few hitters.

[caulfield12]

But Phil Rogers still references them...and he's paid to write about baseball still, somehow.  Tenure.

[wegner]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

These forums have sure gotten classy.  I was expecting to go the whole offseason without hearing about Pythagorean expectations.

 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Kiermaier is a sunk cost, and the article proposes the Sox would also send cash.

Not sure the Sox can count on Engel staying healthy. Still think you can extract solid young cost controlled pitching with Miami sending them Eloy and Mercedes. They have many pitchers but few hitters.

I still have no idea what the point of sending cash with Kimbrel to get a Kiermaier accomplishes...an ego-free GM (at least one completely desensitized to how Madrigal and Heuer will perform on the Northside) would admit we just got that one wrong and start over with a clean slate and exercise the buyout.  It's like cutting off the nose to spite the face...or not walking away from casino because you just have to get back to $0 psychologically after taking heavy losses.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Considering Sox likely budget, FO, manager and current roster, I (and I believe most here would concur) this plan would be the upper limit of what Sox fans could hope for, with the exception that I wouldn’t relegate Vaughn to the bench, and would be creative in terms of what they could get for Eloy or Sheets.

https://soxmachine.com/2021/11/01/hulk-smashs-measured-offseason-plan/

• Sign and trade Kimbrel for Kiermaier.
• Offer QO to Rodon (with the expected rejection)
• Sign FAs Semien, Leury, Tepera and Wilson Ramos.

What is your expectation of the likely budget?

[ShoeLessRob]

Need more TWTW. 

[kleedawg]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The Rays will never spend that type of money on a closer in a million years...especially with their impression from when he pitched for Boston against the division.

He would increase payroll by 25-30% alone...and Kiermaier gets so much of his value from CF defense, so we are still adding to the payroll by getting an older Engel at this point in his career.

Unless we already could predict Luis Robert going down, it seems like too much of a luxury...unless we are going to up it significantly.   You add Kiermaier l together with Leury, you should have just by gone after K.Wong and used internal youth and FA castoffs for the bench.

We need finishing pieces to put this team over the top...Kiermaier 3-5 years ago would have been fine, but it would mean sacrificing Eloy or Vaughn.

Except that they did offer the cubs glasnow for Kimbrel at the deadline...

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I still have no idea what the point of sending cash with Kimbrel to get a Kiermaier accomplishes...an ego-free GM (at least one completely desensitized to how Madrigal and Heuer will perform on the Northside) would admit we just got that one wrong and start over with a clean slate and exercise the buyout.  It's like cutting off the nose to spite the face...or not walking away from casino because you just have to get back to $0 psychologically after taking heavy losses.

I wrote that is the best we could expect from the current team and FO. I stated my peace regarding shedding veterans / adding younger players who can win now and extend the window.

They should eat the Kimbrel buyout and concentrate on solid FAs which are available every year, guys which Hahn passes over to lockup old veterans the first weeks of FA for top dollar and hope they stay healthy and don't decline, versus younger healthy options with upside.

Your post indicates what is likely to happen, unless JR tells Hahn NO, your payroll is XXX, and Kimbrel doesn't fit or you get nothing else except Kimbrel, everything else must be filled eternally beyond a couple $1M-$3M guys.

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What is your expectation of the likely budget?

$162.4M

The CBA and COVID make this a difficult year to speculate. My best guess if I had a gun to my head and had to bet would be:

1. A CBA is not finalized this Winter. Either they will play 2022 under an extension of the current deal, or there will be a significant work stoppage.
2. I don't see the Sox signing a Marcus Semien, Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard, or other high priced  FA without dumping the equivalent in salary.
3. I think the Sox will ultimately keep Caesar (or sign someone with a similar salary) for 2B, sign Leury for $8M/2yrs, Tepera $9M/2 yrs + team option, and muddle through with Sheets/Vaughn/Eloy/Engle/ Leury as their corner OF + DH solution.

That leaves a payroll of Hitters $91.4M + Starting Pitchers $46.5M + Relief Pitchers $25.5M =  Total $162.4M (Previous OD High was $128.7M, last year 2021)

Hitters: Abreu (35 $19.7); Anderson (29 $9.5); Engel (30 $2.0); Hernandez (32 $6.0); Garcia (31 $4.0); Gonzalez (25 $0.6); Grandal (33 $18.3); Jimenez (25 $7.3); Moncada (27 $13.8); Robert (24 $6.0); Sheets (26 $0.6); Vaughn (24 $0.6); Older Defensive Catcher (33 $3.0M).

SP: Giolito (27, $8.3), Lynn (35 $19.0) , Keuchel (34 $18.0) Kopech (26, $0.6), Cease (26, $0.6).

RP: Hendriks (33, $13.3), Bummer (28, $2.5), Crochet (23, $0.6), Lopez (28, $2.0), Ruiz (27, $0.6), FA Tepera (34, $4.5), Free Agent TBD (30, $2.0)

A year over year increase from $128.7M to $162.4M, or $33.7M (26.2%) is very high / significant. Not sure how many are thinking a  $200M payroll, a 56% increase in payroll, is realistic. I understand they sold a lot of 2022 season tickets with Jerry's 2021 playoff carrots, but they didn't sell an additional $70M worth, that is for certain.

$180M would be a beyond wildest dreams budget, but don't see it as likely unless JR is trying to goose ST performance for he or his heirs to cash out at top dollar. That would allow your Conforto, or my Semien, but not both. I would also add at least 1 good SP ($7M-$10M range), Kopech isn't pitching all year, you want to cap Keuchel, and they will likely have at least one significant injury next year.

[SonofaRoache]

4 hours ago, wegner said:

I do not recall that being the sentiment of Rick Hahn when he said what he was looking for in a manager at the press conference announcing the firing of Renteria.

I'm talking about for this season that was goal one. That is why I said first and foremost. We were not a favorite to win our division coming in by many people. The first step is winning the division. After that goal was in hand, the team flat lined in general. 

[SonofaRoache]

4 hours ago, Snopek said:

Okay, but what does that have to do with us as fans?

 Because your initial statement here seemed to insinuate that the fans should have approached the playoffs knowing the Sox were going to lose. And if that's not what you're saying, I'll go back to my original question of what do you mean "people didn't want to see it"?

Well, we as fans want to win and saw red flags with our team. Many posters in Sox Nation said the regular season results didn't matter as they have no bearing on post season. Those fans did not want to see the truth and fought that point to the end. With a young team like the Sox playing good baseball is very important heading into post season. For a veteran team that has had success, it is not as big for them. Again, this is something many didn't want to believe and just hoped a switch would get flipped. As a fan you can bury your head in the sand, but at some point, you will eventually see clearly. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, kleedawg said:

Except that they did offer the cubs glasnow for Kimbrel at the deadline...

Well, for the Cubs, the only thing that would make sense (for a rebuilding team) would be flipping Glasnow after he returns...which, if you are right, means they valued Madrigal + Heuer for 10 years at more than they could get back for Tyler Glasnow potentially returning to form.

From the Cubs' standpoint, you would be gambling that he could show something for the Cubs those last two months of 22 but more likely spring training and into the first half the following season, 2023.

And then there's the pretty significant price tag for the Rays, which will total $16 million keeping Glasnow (including $6 million for rehabbing in 2022).

 

So in essence, around $10 million for one season (2023) in which his (Glasnow's) innings likely will be limited (which would also depress his trade value, knowing how carefully he would need to be managed for a contending team that acquired him from the Cubs right before his FA/walk year begins). The usual recovery time for the surgery is 12-14 months, fwiw.

 

 

 

So that Glasnow situation has to be looked at carefully only after considering all the mitigating factors.

And we also don't know if the Rays were planning to roster Kimbrel for 2022 or flip him just like the White Sox are seemingly going to do, but having performed closer to his first half 2021 numbers, obviously.

 

There's a massive difference between $5.3 million (two months pro-rated) and $16 million allocated over a full season for a franchise like the Rays.

 

They'll undoubtedly be better off at least trying to make a run next year or the following with Glasnow, because a return to form would make him one of the most valuable assets in the game, and one the Rays couldn't afford to buy as a FA or with prospect capital.

Edited November 2, 2021 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

Well, we as fans want to win and saw red flags with our team. Many posters in Sox Nation said the regular season results didn't matter as they have no bearing on post season. Those fans did not want to see the truth and fought that point to the end. With a young team like the Sox playing good baseball is very important heading into post season. For a veteran team that has had success, it is not as big for them. Again, this is something many didn't want to believe and just hoped a switch would get flipped. As a fan you can bury your head in the sand, but at some point, you will eventually see clearly. 

I don’t think it was that simple.  This completely ignores the concept of health.  
 

So the pitching staff completely shit itself because they didn’t go all-out down the stretch?  Maybe so, but like most things, it’s complete speculation even with the benefit of hindsight. 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Jerksticks

[Balta1701]

8 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I don’t think it was that simple.  This completely ignores the concept of health.  
 

So the pitching staff completely shit itself because they didn’t go all-out down the stretch?  Maybe so, but like most things, it’s complete speculation even with the benefit of hindsight. 

This statement drives a counter-question though. Why is it that the team which had the least pressure on their pitchers and the most time to put guys on the IL for health reasons was also the team where the pitching cracked down the stretch? The Astros and Braves have pitching injuries but they were able to push theirs a full month longer than us. The Dodgers had a staff that finally broke in the NLCS, but they also won 104 games while trying to catch San Francisco so they didn’t get the extra month off the White Sox took. Why did the most rested team specifically come apart at the starting staff when that was the thing that the strategy was supposed to prevent?

This is actually a question that needs to be answered because it impacts how the roster should be built next year. Was it a one year fluke or does this team have an issue with pitchers who are more likely than other teams to break down late in the year or was the way the White Sox used their starters in the playoffs drastically different from other teams or was the strategy of giving guys shorter outings and IL stints a flawed strategy because guys wound up rusty?

[Chimpton]

14 hours ago, wegner said:

I do not recall that being the sentiment of Rick Hahn when he said what he was looking for in a manager at the press conference announcing the firing of Renteria.

You are kidding right? Any manager who was approached by the White Sox would have had that target.

[Jerksticks]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This statement drives a counter-question though. Why is it that the team which had the least pressure on their pitchers and the most time to put guys on the IL for health reasons was also the team where the pitching cracked down the stretch? The Astros and Braves have pitching injuries but they were able to push theirs a full month longer than us. The Dodgers had a staff that finally broke in the NLCS, but they also won 104 games while trying to catch San Francisco so they didn’t get the extra month off the White Sox took. Why did the most rested team specifically come apart at the starting staff when that was the thing that the strategy was supposed to prevent?

This is actually a question that needs to be answered because it impacts how the roster should be built next year. Was it a one year fluke or does this team have an issue with pitchers who are more likely than other teams to break down late in the year or was the way the White Sox used their starters in the playoffs drastically different from other teams or was the strategy of giving guys shorter outings and IL stints a flawed strategy because guys wound up rusty?

Totally man.  Why did they all get shelled?  Why did they all look so gassed?

Cheating? I hate this excuse. It’s lazy. 
Nerves?   Yea maybe?

The extra rest?  Ok but this feels lazy too.  
 

I really felt like the Sox had by far the most dominant pitching entering the playoffs. I was expecting 6-8IP gems with dicey 8th innings.  Yea Carlos was a wildcard but we had Kopech, Lopez etc to cover if need be. 
 

The World Series is filled with straight-nobody pitchers right now.   I still don’t get why we didn’t steamroll this. 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Jerksticks

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Totally man.  Why did they all get shelled?  Why did they all look so gassed?

Cheating? I hate this excuse. It’s lazy. 
Nerves?   Yea maybe?

The extra rest?  Ok but this feels lazy too.  
 

I really felt like the Sox had by far the most dominant pitching entering the playoffs. I was expecting 6-8IP gems with dicey 8th innings.  Yea Carlos was a wildcard but we had Kopech, Lopez etc to cover if need be. 
 

The World Series is filled with straight-nobody pitchers right now.   I still don’t get why we didn’t steamroll this. 

Bad pitch calling and positioning as well really hurt 

[Tony]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Bad pitch calling and positioning as well really hurt 

I also think Lynn was a terrible matchup against the Astros, and was also fairly banged up by the end of the year. 

If Lynn alone pitched like he did in the 1st half, Sox probably win the series.