Offseason Thread

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, Tony said:

I also think Lynn was a terrible matchup against the Astros, and was also fairly banged up by the end of the year. 

If Lynn alone pitched like he did in the 1st half, Sox probably win the series. 

Ironically Lynn basically pitched exactly like he did in the first half…against the Astros.

[SonofaRoache]

12 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I don’t think it was that simple.  This completely ignores the concept of health.  
 

So the pitching staff completely shit itself because they didn’t go all-out down the stretch?  Maybe so, but like most things, it’s complete speculation even with the benefit of hindsight. 

Health is fine to take into consideration but the lineups we put out there gave us no chance. Our pitchers shit themselves against quality including in Houston this past season. They got progressively worse as the season went on, which was the Red flag. Resting was not the problem, Lynn getting hit well, DK being useless, and Rodon's arm falling off again was. The bullpen pitching like crap for the second half was as well. This didn't get any better once the playoffs started. 

[South Side Hit Men]

Sadly, this likely won’t happen with Tony and Dave Duncan’s son on the team’s payroll.

 

[kleedawg]

3 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Sadly, this likely won’t happen with Tony and Dave Duncan’s son on the team’s payroll.

 

They have to get smarter with their analytics. Analytics is a tool that should be applied but not indiscriminately, and the braves are using discretion. I'll explain:

In Game #2 the Sox were winning 4-2 in the 5th with runners on 2nd and 1st with 1 out and Tucker up to bat. We overshifted as the analytics advised. Tucker hit a perfect inning ending double play ball to short that rolled uncontested into left center for an RBI single. The astros would get another run to tie the game and eventually win this pivotal game. 

This was where the analytics breaks down or is not sophisticated enough or not interpreted correctly. I believ we should have shifted Tim closer to second but still on the 3b side of second due to the situation (inning, out, score) and they type of hitter at the plate. Had there been no one on base earlier in the game Tucker probably pulls that exact same pitch into the shift. But with the current situation and guy with decent bat control like tucker he purposely just hit it to the vacated side. This is very similar to what Abreu does when then overshift him. He just keeps hitting into the shift until there  are 2 outs and a runner in scoring position and then he often just hits it through the vacated right side. Now a hitter like Zunino you can overshift all the time because he swings all or nothing all the time and doesn't have the bat control to hit away from the shift. He is only going to hit to the vacancy by accident. 

The analytics have to be sophisticated enough to show this and/or the person reading the analytics has to perceive this. It has been said that though the braves have bought into the analytics, the starting pitchers have the ability in game not to shift if they feel it is not appropriate to the particular situation.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

St Louis had the lowest batting avg on infield groundballs the same year they acquired arguably the greatest defensive third baseman ever.  Shocking

[Balta1701]

42 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

They have to get smarter with their analytics. Analytics is a tool that should be applied but not indiscriminately, and the braves are using discretion. I'll explain:

In Game #2 the Sox were winning 4-2 in the 5th with runners on 2nd and 1st with 1 out and Tucker up to bat. We overshifted as the analytics advised. Tucker hit a perfect inning ending double play ball to short that rolled uncontested into left center for an RBI single. The astros would get another run to tie the game and eventually win this pivotal game. 

This was where the analytics breaks down or is not sophisticated enough or not interpreted correctly. I believ we should have shifted Tim closer to second but still on the 3b side of second due to the situation (inning, out, score) and they type of hitter at the plate. Had there been no one on base earlier in the game Tucker probably pulls that exact same pitch into the shift. But with the current situation and guy with decent bat control like tucker he purposely just hit it to the vacated side. This is very similar to what Abreu does when then overshift him. He just keeps hitting into the shift until there  are 2 outs and a runner in scoring position and then he often just hits it through the vacated right side. Now a hitter like Zunino you can overshift all the time because he swings all or nothing all the time and doesn't have the bat control to hit away from the shift. He is only going to hit to the vacancy by accident. 

The analytics have to be sophisticated enough to show this and/or the person reading the analytics has to perceive this. It has been said that though the braves have bought into the analytics, the starting pitchers have the ability in game not to shift if they feel it is not appropriate to the particular situation.

Ok, you're actually notably wrong on this. The single up 4-2 was by Gurriel, not by Tucker. Anderson was shading towards 3b, but he definitely was not overshifted, and it looks like he might have been in that spot partially because Moncada was close to the runner at 3rd maybe? If Anderson had been a few steps towards 2b you are correct he gets to that ball, so this is a play that defensive positioning could have turned into an out, but Tucker didn't even come up that inning so the problem was not that the White Sox overshifted, it's that Anderson was a few steps towards 3b for Gurriel. That play is 6:30 into this video.

 

[kleedawg]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, you're actually notably wrong on this. The single up 4-2 was by Gurriel, not by Tucker. Anderson was shading towards 3b, but he definitely was not overshifted, and it looks like he might have been in that spot partially because Moncada was close to the runner at 3rd maybe? If Anderson had been a few steps towards 2b you are correct he gets to that ball, so this is a play that defensive positioning could have turned into an out, but Tucker didn't even come up that inning so the problem was not that the White Sox overshifted, it's that Anderson was a few steps towards 3b for Gurriel. That play is 6:30 into this video.

 

Maybe I got the wrong inning or game, butt it was definately tucker that I'm thinking of

[kleedawg]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, you're actually notably wrong on this. The single up 4-2 was by Gurriel, not by Tucker. Anderson was shading towards 3b, but he definitely was not overshifted, and it looks like he might have been in that spot partially because Moncada was close to the runner at 3rd maybe? If Anderson had been a few steps towards 2b you are correct he gets to that ball, so this is a play that defensive positioning could have turned into an out, but Tucker didn't even come up that inning so the problem was not that the White Sox overshifted, it's that Anderson was a few steps towards 3b for Gurriel. That play is 6:30 into this video.

 

gm 2 second inning. same essentially situation. I was working from memory. My point still stands. 3:30 in your video.

Edited November 2, 2021 by kleedawg

[South Side Hit Men]

You are not going to stop every ground ball by better positioning. It’s about improving your probability over time.

Same with splitting 8s against a 10 or an Ace. You still have a negative win probability, but minimize losses.

Letting your gut override probability in BJ or Baseball is a long term losing proposition.

[kleedawg]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

You are not going to stop every ground ball by better positioning. It’s about improving your probability over time.

Same with splitting 8s against a 10 or an Ace. You still have a negative win probability, but minimize losses.

Letting your gut override probability in BJ or Baseball is a long term losing proposition.

I'm not talking about going with your gut, I'm saying that the analytics don't give you an accurate picture if they are not sophisticated enough to take in the account inning, score, situation & hitter type. For example. teams shift over on abreu for to pull groundballs, which he often does. However with 2 out and runners in scoring position is when he hits through a vacant right side. So Lets say he for arguments sake he hits 100 groundballs to the left side and 15 to the vicinity of 2b position. You would obviously shift him to pull. But what if 9 of the those groundballs occurred out of a possible 11 times in situations when there was 2outs and a runner in scoring position. What do you think you should do when that exact situation comes again?

This was what I was pointing out in The Tucker example that I got the inning wrong.

I understand you are not going to prevent every gb from getting through. I'm not anti-shift at all. But the situation always matters in baseball.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Sadly, this likely won’t happen with Tony and Dave Duncan’s son on the team’s payroll.

 

Maybe I’m missing something, but that chart is pretty poor evidence of needing to shift more.  Like I bet the r2 is like 0.20 or less.  Not suggesting there isn’t some correlation there, but no idea what Pnoles is trying to accomplish with that chart.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Maybe I’m missing something, but that chart is pretty poor evidence of needing to shift more.  Like I bet the r2 is like 0.20 or less.  Not suggesting there isn’t some correlation there, but no idea what Pnoles is trying to accomplish with that chart.

yeah, that chart shows nothing. Next year maybe we are second best by doing nothing and achieving what STL did. 

I'd like to see what this looks like specifically with pitchers that throw >40% sinkers.

[hankchifan]

5 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Sadly, this likely won’t happen with Tony and Dave Duncan’s son on the team’s payroll.

 

Won’t happen with 20th century mgr TLR.  It is also a TLR unwritten rule to shift.

[Chicago White Sox]

58 minutes ago, bmags said:

yeah, that chart shows nothing. Next year maybe we are second best by doing nothing and achieving what STL did. 

I'd like to see what this looks like specifically with pitchers that throw >40% sinkers.

Yeah, that would be interesting.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, hankchifan said:

Won’t happen with 20th century mgr TLR.  It is also a TLR unwritten rule to shift.

Brewers at that number are pretty shocking....especially with those top three starters in their rotation.

Would have to look more closely at FO/GB and K numbers to see what value those numbers provide...as well as infield defense (Adames, Arcia, Urias, etc.)

[35thstreetswarm]

Braves, they of the 78-win PECOTA projection, lost Acuna and Ozuna after posting a sub-.500 first half and are about to win the World Series.  Just a friendly reminder that your logic has no power here.

 

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Braves, they of the 78-win PECOTA projection, lost Acuna and Ozuna after posting a sub-.500 first half and are about to win the World Series.  Just a friendly reminder that your logic has no power here.

 

That said, you need to have a great/abundant farm system to replace guys like Soroka and Ynoa and Folty....an ace in Fried....and a REALLY strong and deep bullpen.

Riley became an MVP-caliber player this year, they already have Freeman....and Albies/Swanson both are very dynamic MI talents to go along with Acuna.

[GreenSox]

• On 11/1/2021 at 1:12 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

  I mean, aren’t most deadline trades “buy high” trades?

  Well, that was extra high....and they didn't really  need the pitcher that I guess Hahn thought was the best closer in the game...they just needed another good reliever.  Kimbrel was an easy trade to make - not much scouting required.
  And perhaps that's part of the problem - lack of a functional pro scouting department. 
  And they put so many resources into relievers - that's effectively 3 first round picks that Hahn has used on relief pitching (maybe Crochet is a starter but that's never been better than 50/50) plus some high priced free agents.
  Sadly, Robertson/Kahnle/Frazier  was an exception to July "Buy high"

Edited November 3, 2021 by GreenSox

[hankchifan]

Jorge Soler just hit a monster 3 run homer in game 6 of the WS.  Man, Soler would have looked great at RF for the Sox.  Imagine the three headed monster of Eloy, Robert and Soler.  Soler hit 48 homers in KC a couple of years ago.  I am sure he would have been cheaper than Kimbrel.  Our FO dropped the ball on our RF need.

[Chicago White Sox]

26 minutes ago, hankchifan said:

Jorge Soler just hit a monster 3 run homer in game 6 of the WS.  Man, Soler would have looked great at RF for the Sox.  Imagine the three headed monster of Eloy, Robert and Soler.  Soler hit 48 homers in KC a couple of years ago.  I am sure he would have been cheaper than Kimbrel.  Our FO dropped the ball on our RF need.

The last thing we needed was a butcher in RF.  Soler wasn’t the answer to our RF problem at the deadline.

[maloney.adam]

37 minutes ago, hankchifan said:

Jorge Soler just hit a monster 3 run homer in game 6 of the WS.  Man, Soler would have looked great at RF for the Sox.  Imagine the three headed monster of Eloy, Robert and Soler.  Soler hit 48 homers in KC a couple of years ago.  I am sure he would have been cheaper than Kimbrel.  Our FO dropped the ball on our RF need.

We need more lefties not righties.

Edited November 3, 2021 by maloney.adam

[caulfield12]

45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The last thing we needed was a butcher in RF.  Soler wasn’t the answer to our RF problem at the deadline.

That said, Rosario has played out of his mind defensively this post-season, and never noted for his defense.

Is Soler actually worse than Sheets or Vaughn or Burger out in RF???

That would be hard to believe.

 

And how does he stack up against Eloy?...because we already know Jimenez doesn't have the arm or the ability to actually hit cut-off men, either.

[Chicago White Sox]

23 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That said, Rosario has played out of his mind defensively this post-season, and never noted for his defense.

Is Soler actually worse than Sheets or Vaughn or Burger out in RF???

That would be hard to believe.

 

And how does he stack up against Eloy?...because we already know Jimenez doesn't have the arm or the ability to actually hit cut-off men, either.

Why does it matter how he compares to our other defensively challenged OFs?  Soler is absolutely terrible with the glove is the point and acquiring him to put Vaughn on the bench would have been nonsensical at the time.  It’s absolutely comical that people all overreacting to a dozen or so playoff games and ignoring the larger body of performance during the regular season.  Nothing about Soler made a like of sense for us on July 31st.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[ron883]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why does it matter how he compares to our other defensively challenged OFs?  Soler is absolutely terrible with the glove is the point and acquiring him to put Vaughn on the bench would have been nonsensical at the time.  It’s absolutely comical that people all overreacting to a dozen or so playoff games and ignoring the larger body of performance during the regular season.  Nothing about Soler made a like of sense for us on July 31st.

Lol, this. Who the fck cares how Soler compares to Jake Burger in RF? Wtf am I reading there?

Edited November 3, 2021 by ron883

[Sleepy Harold]

29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That said, Rosario has played out of his mind defensively this post-season, and never noted for his defense.

Is Soler actually worse than Sheets or Vaughn or Burger out in RF???

That would be hard to believe.

 

And how does he stack up against Eloy?...because we already know Jimenez doesn't have the arm or the ability to actually hit cut-off men, either.

Well looking at OAA and DRS, Soler had a -6 OAA and was -12 in DRS this season in 752 innings. Eloy had a 2 OAA and 0 DRS in 304 innings. Eloy showed improvement post injury, while Soler has never been a good OFer at any point.