Offseason Thread

[Harry Chappas]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The implication by some "insiders" is the sox would not pick up kimbrel option if hahn did not know for a fact he could trade him for something of value. Picking up an option then off loading for salary relief would be absurd.

So my question remains, just as absurd as you found Baltas post, I find it absurd a team would tell another team that if they pick up a big option on a reliever they'd trade for it. I've said before, I don't think kimbrel is worth 1 yr 16 million. It would be much wiser strategically to do what balta implied than it would be to do what people like Jimmy have been implying.

The only way it makes sense is if there is a market for Kimbrel.  I can't see there being one and if there is not then it is an indefensibly stupid  move.  If they think he can have value to the White Sox in 2021 or there is a different plan for  the bullpen then maybe it make sense.

To go into the offseason with the idea of tradign him without have an gauge on his market is the height of stupidity and Hahn is not an idiot.

A team trades for him because they are guaranteed to get him.  In the open market you never know what can happen.  

[kleedawg]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

HE literally won the MVP in 2015.

Ok, ok, we are getting bogged down on the wrong part of my original post. which was my criteria for giving these huge contracts. Which is I want players with has few "warts" as possible if the the health of my organization is going to be massively tied to his sucess.I 

I made the mistake of not looking up Harper's stats from post but rather went from memory from an old debate I had another sox board. I believe the actual argument (still not looking it up) was that Harper and 1 great year. He had not previously drove in a 100 rbi and his offensive stats were not as good as what Jose Abreu was putting up every year despite the fact that everyone felt Harper was by far the most talented player. I agree Harper would have been a great sign. That Harper has lived up to his potential. That he would be down right sexy in RF for us now. But, none of this paragraph is the main point of my op was about.

The bolded part was my main point. My fault for not being more succinct. We all want the sox to Spend some real money on whatever FA is "sexy"  at the moment. But they better be the right fit if we are going to give them these Top, Top contracts. 

 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Dick Allen]

Wade Miley put up a 6.0 WAR has a $10 million option and the Reds put him on waivers hoping someone would claim him so they would save the $1  million buyout. The Cubs claimed him.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Wade Miley put up a 6.0 WAR has a $10 million option and the Reds put him on waivers hoping someone would claim him so they would save the $1  million buyout. The Cubs claimed him.

Pretty much one of the first teams that would/could realistically claim him.

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Pretty much one of the first teams that would/could realistically claim him.

They apparently couldn’t trade him. Do people really think some team just has to have Kimbrel at $16 million?

[chw42]

38 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Wade Miley put up a 6.0 WAR has a $10 million option and the Reds put him on waivers hoping someone would claim him so they would save the $1  million buyout. The Cubs claimed him.

Miley also collapsed down the stretch for Cincy after pitching really well for the first 5 months. He did something similar for Houston a few years back. His profile of allowing weak contact is intriguing but I ultimately think he's at the mercy of luck since he really doesn't miss a whole lot of bats. The fact that teams didn't want him for 1 year and $10 million in a trade should tell you what his market really is. Good pickup for the Cubs though, since they got him for just the money alone. I wouldn't want to be him when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley though.

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Miley also collapsed down the stretch for Cincy after pitching really well for the first 5 months. He did something similar for Houston a few years back. His profile of allowing weak contact is intriguing but I ultimately think he's at the mercy of luck since he really doesn't miss a whole lot of bats. The fact that teams didn't want him for 1 year and $10 million in a trade should tell you what his market really is. Good pickup for the Cubs though, since they got him for just the money alone. I wouldn't want to be him when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley though.

All I am saying is this is a guy who put up a 6 bWAR, costs $10 million next year, and the Reds couldn’t trade him for a broken bat. I don’t know how anyone could expect Kimbrel is going to be popular at $16 million.

[chw42]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

All I am saying is this is a guy who put up a 6 bWAR, costs $10 million next year, and the Reds couldn’t trade him for a broken bat. I don’t know how anyone could expect Kimbrel is going to be popular at $16 million.

6 bWAR is a vast over value for him. bWAR tends to go crazy when a good pitcher has a good year with a bad defense behind him. I think his true value is probably somewhere around 2-3 WAR. 

[Saufley]

So SoxFest  2022 has been cancelled.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Saufley

[ron883]

23 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

All I am saying is this is a guy who put up a 6 bWAR, costs $10 million next year, and the Reds couldn’t trade him for a broken bat. I don’t know how anyone could expect Kimbrel is going to be popular at $16 million.

1000%. The Sox aren't keeping Kimbrel. If they do, it'll be a big mistake. 

[Balta1701]

27 minutes ago, chw42 said:

6 bWAR is a vast over value for him. bWAR tends to go crazy when a good pitcher has a good year with a bad defense behind him. I think his true value is probably somewhere around 2-3 WAR. 

Since no one else looked it up, 2.9 fWAR last season for Miley.

That…would have been useful to the White Sox next year at that price.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This organization once publicly blamed a deal not happening on a Tweet. The idea that the same people could have perfect confidence in a trade happening maybe 5 months and a lockout in advance just seems like a fantasy to me.

What do you mean five months?

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What do you mean five months?

Casually throwing in elongated lockout ending just as games start being canceled.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Why pick up someone else's junk? Yerevan are guys on that list if the White Dox really wanted yhey could pick up for basically nothing and the other team may be willing to throw in some money. Why risk it with Kimbrel? He might get injured before they could trade him.

You aren't getting additional value. Free up the money, admit it didn't work out and try again. People who trade for a living and are successful,  make a lot of bad trades but are disciplined enough to be able to admit they are wrong and get out of the bad ones and ride the good ones. The amateurs if they are crunched and have a winning position and losing position and have to get out of 1 will almost always get out of the winner because they want to be right. In the end, they wind up out of the lower as well with even a bigger loss.

Why is Kimbrel considered “junk” though?  As bad as he was with us, he finished the year with 2.2 fWAR which would tie for 5th overall for relievers.  I don’t think GMs are going to ignore his total body of work and focus only on his time with the White Sox.  Don’t get me wrong, his cold stretch being at the end of the season will impact his value, but it doesn’t means he’s finished and a smart GM will try to rationalize why his season suddenly flipped upside down when he got traded.  I don’t think we will get much for him, but if the Sox do pick up his option then I’m confident we’ll get something fungible for him (likely a lesser reliever) and that’s better than eating his $2M option.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

If a team was willing to trade for Kimbrel  they could do it today.

 

How many trades have happened so far this offseason?  I mean, GMs don’t even know who is going to hit free agency yet.

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How many trades have happened so far this offseason?  I mean, GMs don’t even know who is going to hit free agency yet.

A lot of waiver claims and 1 trade.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How many trades have happened so far this offseason?  I mean, GMs don’t even know who is going to hit free agency yet.

Tucker Barnhart for someone who will never make it to the big leagues in all likelihood.

But then why risk being stuck with Kimbrel in a period of increased uncertainty…and mess with that so-called “unprecedented financial flexibility” even more?

[wegner]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Tucker Barnhart for someone who will never make it to the big leagues in all likelihood.

But then why risk being stuck with Kimbrel in a period of increased uncertainty…and mess with that so-called “unprecedented financial flexibility” even more?

Isn't that gone?....I haven't heard them say the $$ will be spent in awhile.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is Kimbrel considered “junk” though?  As bad as he was with us, he finished the year with 2.2 fWAR which would tie for 5th overall for relievers.  I don’t think GMs are going to ignore his total body of work and focus only on his time with the White Sox.  Don’t get me wrong, his cold stretch being at the end of the season will impact his value, but it doesn’t means he’s finished and a smart GM will try to rationalize why his season suddenly flipped upside down when he got traded.  I don’t think we will get much for him, but if the Sox do pick up his option then I’m confident we’ll get something fungible for him (likely a lesser reliever) and that’s better than eating his $2M option.

Where are y’all getting his buyout at $2 million? You are the second person to say that today and both B-R and Spotrac show it as $1 million?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/craig-kimbrel-7233/

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Where are y’all getting his buyout at $2 million? You are the second person to say that today and both B-R and Spotrac show it as $1 million?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/craig-kimbrel-7233/

It’s at the link you just posted: “2022 Buyout increases $1M each for 53 games finished in 2020, & 2021”

[Snopek]

26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s at the link you just posted: “2022 Buyout increases $1M each for 53 games finished in 2020, & 2021”

Are you interpreting games finished as appearances? I think it's more along these lines: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/games-finished

And it looks like he finished 11 games in 2020 and 43 games in 2021 (scroll down to advanced stats): https://www.mlb.com/player/craig-kimbrel-518886

So, unless the $1M increase is for 53 games finished in 20-21 combined (awkward wording choice if so), the buyout should only be $1M

[Chicago White Sox]

55 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Are you interpreting games finished as appearances? I think it's more along these lines: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/games-finished

And it looks like he finished 11 games in 2020 and 43 games in 2021 (scroll down to advanced stats): https://www.mlb.com/player/craig-kimbrel-518886

So, unless the $1M increase is for 53 games finished in 20-21 combined (awkward wording choice if so), the buyout should only be $1M

I was interpreting it as appearances, but perhaps I’m wrong there.  Good catch.

[Pal]

3 hours ago, ron883 said:

1000%. The Sox aren't keeping Kimbrel. If they do, it'll be a big mistake. 

Really surprised they didnt just announce today that they aren't picking up the option. 

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, Pal said:

Really surprised they didnt just announce today that they aren't picking up the option. 

Is that what you’re hearing?