Sox to pick up $16M Kimbrel option, per Nightengale. Then try to trade him.

[ron883]

24 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I'd rather not deal with the Padres organization again.. or at least till Preller is gone.

Just googled Preller. He is one good looking dude. 

[South Side Hit Men]

15 minutes ago, Quin said:

They also offer up Wil Myers in that article. That's a "our trash for your second All-Star closer that you could just decline an option on." If I have to take back Myers, I want good prospect back.

Yep, $22.5M is his tag plus $1M 2023 buyout. 2B plus RF are holes, but they remain holes with Profar and or Myers. Rather have the flexibility to sign a solid FA option, then sign Kimbrel and flip for expensive garbage.

Kimbrel should be good next year, now that he built his innings back up. However, it makes no sense to keep him in terms of roster construction. You can’t spend $30M-$35m on a bullpen unless you’re the Dodgers / well over $200M.

That’s been my primary concern with the Grandal signing ($18.3M of a $120M-$140M payroll). More palatable if they bump total payroll to the $180M-$200M range.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, GM's do stupid things, but that still seems like relying on other GMs to be stupid. But hey, as I said, good luck.

Why is Kimbrel on a 1/$16M deal stupid?  His salary doesn’t work for us, especially when we already have an expensive closer, but there are other big market teams that are probably excited about the possibility of getting him for 50 cents on the dollar.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is Kimbrel on a 1/$16M deal stupid?  His salary doesn’t work for us, especially when we already have an expensive closer, but there are other big market teams that are probably excited about the possibility of getting him for 50 cents on the dollar.

What do you think he would get if he were a free agent this year under the old CBA? I could see him getting $20 million guaranteed but over 2 years. I can’t see him coming close to $16 million on a one year deal. Maybe $12 if the market was strong that year? 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

At this point I think a lot of us are skeptical, but fine no choice to wait until March or whenever they're able to actually get trades done and see if anything comes back. My prediction is still he's on the White Sox in June if his option is picked up.

This is a terrible prediction.  Even if they pick up the option, he will not be on the team next year.  GMs actually watch baseball games and witnessed a guy who was the best reliever in baseball leading up to the trade deadline.  Someone will prefer him than signing one of the few elite guys to a huge multi-year deal.  All relievers are risky, ones that only require one year commitments far less.

[almagest]

Profar no way, but I might take a flyer on Ha-Seong Kim if they're throwing in a solid prospect. 2.1 bWAR last year, driven by excellent defense. He'll be 26 next year so there might be room for offensive growth.

It's not the most appealing option but I don't think they're going to get much for Kimbrel after his second half, and Kim has some upside hopefully.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, almagest said:

Profar no way, but I might take a flyer on Ha-Seong Kim if they're throwing in a solid prospect. 2.1 bWAR last year, driven by excellent defense. He'll be 26 next year so there might be room for offensive growth.

It's not the most appealing option but I don't think they're going to get much for Kimbrel after his second half, and Kim has some upside hopefully.

Another Leury with elite defense but limited offense...and isn't an outfielder.

[Chicago White Sox]

46 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What do you think he would get if he were a free agent this year under the old CBA? I could see him getting $20 million guaranteed but over 2 years. I can’t see him coming close to $16 million on a one year deal. Maybe $12 if the market was strong that year? 

Andrew Miller in 2019 got a 2/$25M deal as 34 year old free agent coming off a -0.4 fWAR / 5.19 FIP season.  I’m assuming a 33 year old Kimbrel coming off a 2.2 fWAR / 2.43 FIP season would get quite a bit more.  You continue to ignore he was the best reliever in baseball before we acquired him and there are many reasons that could explain why he sucked with us (35 inning YoY increase, changing teams mid-season, dealing with a sick child, uncomfortable with new role, etc).  Major league GMs aren’t as pessimistic as you and base everything on the last two months.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Yep, $22.5M is his tag plus $1M 2023 buyout. 2B plus RF are holes, but they remain holes with Profar and or Myers. Rather have the flexibility to sign a solid FA option, then sign Kimbrel and flip for expensive garbage.

Kimbrel should be good next year, now that he built his innings back up. However, it makes no sense to keep him in terms of roster construction. You can’t spend $30M-$35m on a bullpen unless you’re the Dodgers / well over $200M.

That’s been my primary concern with the Grandal signing ($18.3M of a $120M-$140M payroll). More palatable if they bump total payroll to the $180M-$200M range.

 

End of Dodgers' nine year reign even at a $265-270 million payroll with Scherzer and Turner???

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32442361/mlb-playoffs-2021-end-road-los-angeles-dodgers

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Andrew Miller in 2019 got a 2/$25M deal as 34 year old free agent coming off a -0.4 fWAR / 5.19 FIP season.  I’m assuming a 33 year old Kimbrel coming off a 2.2 fWAR / 2.43 FIP season would get quite a bit more.  You continue to ignore he was the best reliever in baseball before we acquired him and there are many reasons that could explain why he sucked with us (35 inning YoY increase, changing teams mid-season, dealing with a sick child, uncomfortable with new role, etc).  Major league GMs aren’t as pessimistic as you and base everything on the last two months.

Miller also is a lefty and had the reputation of being used multiple innings in any high leverage situation, though.  Arguably, that's even more valuable than an inconsistent formerly elite/HoF closer. Also, it was not quite the moment where every team in baseball had a pen composed of cheap/er fireballers...2019 seems like a decade ago if you look at current bullpen utilization trends.

[FoxForce2]

Kimbrel was the best *closer* in the NL prior to the Sox acquiring him. There is a distinct difference between a closer and a reliever. Miller was a reliever (a Fireman), - not a closer.

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Miller also is a lefty and had the reputation of being used multiple innings in any high leverage situation, though.  Arguably, that's even more valuable than an inconsistent formerly elite/HoF closer. Also, it was not quite the moment where every team in baseball had a pen composed of cheap/er fireballers...2019 seems like a decade ago if you look at current bullpen utilization trends.

We literally just gave up Madrigal & Heuer for 1 1/3 years of Kimbrel.  This idea that classic closers are somehow much less valuable than they were two years ago simply isn’t true.

[almagest]

43 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Another Leury with elite defense but limited offense...and isn't an outfielder.

Cheap second base option, assuming they go after Conforto or Marte.

[A-Train to 35th]

15 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Andrew Miller in 2019 got a 2/$25M deal as 34 year old free agent coming off a -0.4 fWAR / 5.19 FIP season.  I’m assuming a 33 year old Kimbrel coming off a 2.2 fWAR / 2.43 FIP season would get quite a bit more.  You continue to ignore he was the best reliever in baseball before we acquired him and there are many reasons that could explain why he sucked with us (35 inning YoY increase, changing teams mid-season, dealing with a sick child, uncomfortable with new role, etc).  Major league GMs aren’t as pessimistic as you and base everything on the last two months.

When your paid 16 million to throw a baseball you should be able to clear your head of excuses and throw a strike. He was unable to do that, so eat the 1 million and say goodbye before it ends up costing us 4-5 million and a throw in player we don't need.  What we need to do with that money is concentrate on starting pitching and defense.  If Rodon leaves, we have Giolito and Lynn and that's about it.  Cease is still finding his way, and Kopec & Crochet didn't look too promising in the bullpen since relying solely on their fastball.

Edited October 22, 2021 by A-Train to 35th
sp

[A-Train to 35th]

14 hours ago, almagest said:

Cheap second base option, assuming they go after Conforto or Marte.

I believe Marte would have been a much better pick-up at the trade deadline for what the Sox needed at the time which was outfielders.  He makes contact and has the defense and speed we lacked during the playoff's

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

When your paid 16 million to throw a baseball you should be able to clear your head of excuses and throw a strike. He was unable to do that, so eat the 1 million and say goodbye before it ends up costing us 4-5 million and a throw in player we don't need.  What we need to do with that money is concentrate on starting pitching and defense.  If Rodon leaves, we have Giolito and Lynn and that's about it.  Cease is still finding his way, and Kopec & Crochet didn't look too promising in the bullpen since relying solely on their fastball.

These guys aren’t robots.  You can view these things as excuses, but wearing down from a massive innings increase or dealing with a sick child are legit reasons why a guy’s performance could fall off.  And guess what, Hahn can talk to opposing GMs and determine if there is a market for Kimbrel at 1/$16M.  They aren’t picking up that option unless they are confident they can get something back for him.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

When your paid 16 million to throw a baseball you should be able to clear your head of excuses and throw a strike. He was unable to do that, so eat the 1 million and say goodbye before it ends up costing us 4-5 million and a throw in player we don't need.  What we need to do with that money is concentrate on starting pitching and defense.  If Rodon leaves, we have Giolito and Lynn and that's about it.  Cease is still finding his way, and Kopec & Crochet didn't look too promising in the bullpen since relying solely on their fastball.

I know everyone is talking about RF and 2B, but we have some other roster work to do.  We definitely have some work to do in building the pen again, and we probably need another starter.

 

[ChiSox59]

26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know everyone is talking about RF and 2B, but we have some other roster work to do.  We definitely have some work to do in building the pen again, and we probably need another starter.

 

I think there are 2 avenues on SP:

1) Rodon takes QO - rotation is Giolito, Lynn, Rodon, Cease, Kopech.  Keuchel probably makes some starts to control Kopech's innings.

2) Rodon rejects QO - same rotation but slide Keuchel up.  Sign veteran SP to cheap 1 year deal as competition for Dallas and insurance for Kopech.  A few options - Quintana, Archer, Jon Gray, Rich Hill. I don't expect Sox to spend much here.

Pen definitely needs at least 2 guys.  

Also, ideally, sign a good defensive backup catcher and send Collins out for....I don't know...maybe a live arm. 

[palehose1]

31 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know everyone is talking about RF and 2B, but we have some other roster work to do.  We definitely have some work to do in building the pen again, and we probably need another starter.

 

and definitely need an upgrade at backup catcher

[A-Train to 35th]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

These guys aren’t robots.  You can view these things as excuses, but wearing down from a massive innings increase or dealing with a sick child are legit reasons why a guy’s performance could fall off.  And guess what, Hahn can talk to opposing GMs and determine if there is a market for Kimbrel at 1/$16M.  They aren’t picking up that option unless they are confident they can get something back for him.

There are also legit reasons showing a pitcher is in a downward spiral.  In the two season's prior to his great first half of this year, his era for the Cubs was 6.53 in 2019 and 5.28 in 2020. Add that to the 5.09 he posted with the White Sox in the second half and and I don't believe we'll get much for him without eating some of his salary.  You and the Sox may be confident someone will pick-up that 16 million dollars but based on his stats prior and after the first half of this year I'm not.  I was at a game during this season and I sat next to a Boston transplant who was there to see his Red Sox, Kimbrel came up and he said if it's any consolation he wasn't confident of his ability when he pitched for them and won the WS.  All the GM's know the Sox are backed into a corner by picking up the 16 mil option and that we have no use for two closers making 30+ .  Based on that knowledge I doubt the offers will come rolling in.  His only good stats in the last three years were the first half of this year without any real pressure to perform since the Cubs were in the rebuild mode after the 11 game losing streak.  Time will tell as there's always a desperate sucker, but I doubt that will happen without the club eating more than the 1 million that they could have saved money by cutting bait.  Admit it didn't work out and move on.

Edited October 22, 2021 by A-Train to 35th
sp

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

There are also legit reasons showing a pitcher is in a downward spiral.  In the two season's prior to his great first half of this year, his era for the Cubs was 6.53 in 2019 and 5.28 in 2020. Add that to the 5.09 he posted with the White Sox in the second half and and I don't believe we'll get much for him without eating some of his salary.  You and the Sox may be confident someone will pick-up that 16 million dollars but based on his stats prior and after the first half of this year I'm not.  I was at a game during this season and I sat next to a Boston transplant who was there to see his Red Sox, Kimbrel came up and he said if it's any consolation he wasn't confident of his ability when he pitched for them and won the WS.  All the GM's know the Sox are backed into a corner by picking up the 16 mil option and that we have no use for two closers making 30+ .  Based on that knowledge I doubt the offers will come rolling in.  His only good stats in the last three years were the first half of this year without any real pressure to perform since the Cubs were in the rebuild mode after the 11 game losing streak.  Time will tell as there's always a desperate sucker, but I doubt that will happen without the club eating more than the 1 million that they could have saved money by cutting bait.  Admit it didn't work out and move on.

The bad two years you were referring to were 35 total innings, of which the final 15 innings he was actually really good.  He also didn’t have a pre-season in 2019 and dealt with COVID insanity in 2020.  The dude literally had a xwOBA in the 100th percentile over the first four months of this year and was perhaps the most valued commodity at the trade deadline.  His addition didn’t work out for us but that doesn’t mean you overreact and dump him for nothing.  Again, Hahn will know if a market exists before he has to pick up the option.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

There are also legit reasons showing a pitcher is in a downward spiral.  In the two season's prior to his great first half of this year, his era for the Cubs was 6.53 in 2019 and 5.28 in 2020. Add that to the 5.09 he posted with the White Sox in the second half and and I don't believe we'll get much for him without eating some of his salary.  You and the Sox may be confident someone will pick-up that 16 million dollars but based on his stats prior and after the first half of this year I'm not.  I was at a game during this season and I sat next to a Boston transplant who was there to see his Red Sox, Kimbrel came up and he said if it's any consolation he wasn't confident of his ability when he pitched for them and won the WS.  All the GM's know the Sox are backed into a corner by picking up the 16 mil option and that we have no use for two closers making 30+ .  Based on that knowledge I doubt the offers will come rolling in.  His only good stats in the last three years were the first half of this year without any real pressure to perform since the Cubs were in the rebuild mode after the 11 game losing streak.  Time will tell as there's always a desperate sucker, but I doubt that will happen without the club eating more than the 1 million that they could have saved money by cutting bait.  Admit it didn't work out and move on.

He had a high ERA in a year where he didn't get a spring training, and in the next year when he got a 3 week spring training.  Once he got back to normal, he was outstanding.  Based on the teams chasing him and offers there were for him, other teams felt the same way.

[A-Train to 35th]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The bad two years you were referring to were 35 total innings, of which the final 15 innings he was actually really good.  He also didn’t have a pre-season in 2019 and dealt with COVID insanity in 2020.  The dude literally had a xwOBA in the 100th percentile over the first four months of this year and was perhaps the most valued commodity at the trade deadline.  His addition didn’t work out for us but that doesn’t mean you overreact and dump him for nothing.  Again, Hahn will know if a market exists before he has to pick up the option.

News flash....they already picked-up the option.  

[A-Train to 35th]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

He had a high ERA in a year where he didn't get a spring training, and in the next year when he got a 3 week spring training.  Once he got back to normal, he was outstanding.  Based on the teams chasing him and offers there were for him, other teams felt the same way.

I hope I'm wrong is all I'll add.  

[bmags]

Just now, A-Train to 35th said:

News flash....they already picked-up the option.  

How would you know that.