Jump to content

Rodon to get QO?


southsider2k5

Recommended Posts

Damned if you do, damned if you dont. I think that Rodon would likely accept the QO if offered. Maybe someone is willing to offer him 3/60 this off season (assuming the Sox havent made a similar offer). That said, if Rodon replicates this seasons results next year, he goes into free agency as a 30 year old with around 800 career innings with no draft pick compensation attached to him. 

Not offering the QO would mean losing a 5.0 WAR pitcher for nothing. Going for Stroman, Ray, Scherzer, etc. would be much more expensive and long term proposition. I think there are serious questions about whether the Sox can depend on Kopech to make starts in 2022 and it seems exceedingly unlikely that Crochet will be a starter.

Making the wrong call on Rodon's health would be pretty catastrophic. The Sox now have some expensive players on the books in Abreu (19.6M), Lynn (18.5M), Grandal (18.2M), Keuchel (18M), Moncada (13.8M), and Hendricks (13.3M) all over the 10M threshold. The Sox also have an $16M option on Kimbrel to decide on.  If the Sox pick up Kimbrel's option that puts them at $136M for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal, Keuchel, Moncada, Hendricks, Kimbrel, and Rodon.

Factoring in TA (9.5M), Gio (8M give or take), Eloy (6.5M), and Robert the Sox are now at $166M. Picking up Hernandez's option, and bringing back ReyLo and Engel puts you at around $178M. The Sox would essentially have to run it back with the same squad in 2022, but would go into 2023 with Keuchel, Abreu, Rodon, and Kimbrel's money off the books. 

In a vacuum, I think the Rodon QO and the Kimbrel option would both be favorable for the Sox; however, selecting both would be a bold use of limited financial space in 2022.

All of that being said. if the Sox believe that Rodon will be healthy in 2022, then you have to extend the QO. You simply cant get that upside for 18M, while also keeping the 2023 budget flexible. 

Edited by FriendlyNorthsider
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would be way more likely to give Rodon a QO than to pick up Kimbrel's option.  Get rid of Kimbrel and Hernandez, that more than pays for Rodon even if he accepts. Boras clients rarely accept the QO, so I would definitely factor that in.

Of course, I did not like the Kimbrel trade on the day it was made. (Or the Hernandez trade for that matter.) But it never occurred to me that it would turn out as bad as it turned out to be. Kimbrel leaves a bad taste in the mouth. They should be done with him.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe @ptatc can weigh in, but I'd think there is a difference between his arm just got fatigued due to the high workload or his arm actually suffered damage at the end of the season. If it's the former, an offseason training program ought to help him do more next year. Only needs a 15% increase over 2021 to reach 150 innings in 2022. You absolutely give the QO if you think he can give you that next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sambuca said:

Offer the QO.

His arm held up way better than we could have ever expected for 130+ innings, and he was elite.

With no structural damage, this season could have helped build back his arm strength along with another offseason program similar to last offseason.

Worst comes to worst, we open with 6 starting pitchers and I'm fine with that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Maybe @ptatc can weigh in, but I'd think there is a difference between his arm just got fatigued due to the high workload or his arm actually suffered damage at the end of the season. If it's the former, an offseason training program ought to help him do more next year. Only needs a 15% increase over 2021 to reach 150 innings in 2022. You absolutely give the QO if you think he can give you that next year.

This is what I’m thinking. Guy only threw 40 innings total previous two years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sambuca said:

Offer the QO.

His arm held up way better than we could have ever expected for 130+ innings, and he was elite.

The way I look at it, if he can repeat 2021 19 million is a bargain. He was worth 5 WAR for us which is just outstanding. Even with 3 WAR thats good right?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

I could definitely see him taking it and building his up innings up and value to be a free agent after 2022 at that $18.4 mill (or whatever it is) salary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

This is where I am at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...