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Rodon to get QO?


southsider2k5

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

I think there's at least a 50% chance he accepts it if offered. 

We actually have lots of relevant comparisons the last few years of guys who got the QO and it really prevented them from getting multi-year deals. Both Marcel Ozuna and Yasmani Grandal played on 1 year deals until their QO was gone, then went out and signed contracts worth 3-4 times that the next year. Going a little farther back, Dallas Keuchel got a QO, didn't get any contract offers he was happy with, sat out half the year until the compensation expired (costing him money), then got a multi-year deal after that season. Craig Kimbrel got a QO, didn't get a contract offer he was happy with, sat out, and got a multi-year deal once the compensation expired.

So, even though his agent is Boras and who knows what Boras will do, the lesson there is that guys who would get a couple years wind up taking 1 year deals worth about the QO, and maybe even less, in a normal year. Combine the uncertainty with the CBA, and you've got a chance at being caught unsigned during a period when all the contracts have to get done. Finally, with Rodon, he's earned something in the neighborhood of $22 million total in his whole career - notably less than a lot of people who receive a QO, so $18 million guaranteed isn't a bad spot for him.

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think there's at least a 50% chance he accepts it if offered. 

We actually have lots of relevant comparisons the last few years of guys who got the QO and it really prevented them from getting multi-year deals. Both Marcel Ozuna and Yasmani Grandal played on 1 year deals until their QO was gone, then went out and signed contracts worth 3-4 times that the next year. Going a little farther back, Dallas Keuchel got a QO, didn't get any contract offers he was happy with, sat out half the year until the compensation expired (costing him money), then got a multi-year deal after that season. Craig Kimbrel got a QO, didn't get a contract offer he was happy with, sat out, and got a multi-year deal once the compensation expired.

So, even though his agent is Boras and who knows what Boras will do, the lesson there is that guys who would get a couple years wind up taking 1 year deals worth about the QO, and maybe even less, in a normal year. Combine the uncertainty with the CBA, and you've got a chance at being caught unsigned during a period when all the contracts have to get done. Finally, with Rodon, he's earned something in the neighborhood of $22 million total in his whole career - notably less than a lot of people who receive a QO, so $18 million guaranteed isn't a bad spot for him.

If he accepts, that tells me what he thinks of his own health.  If he has the confidence to take a bridge contract to try to get to the payday, that makes me feel like he is pretty confident in his health in 2022.

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The QO is really stupid and needs to go away but probably won't this year. I think the Sox will offer the QO and Rodon will reject it. Rodon walked off the mound healthy in his last start and that's all he needed to do to secure a multi-year deal.  It may not be for $100M but it will be more than enough for him to go back to drinking beer and playing video games all off season.  The last thing he wants is another 1 year deal where he has to put in the work during the off season.  

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50 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The QO is really stupid and needs to go away but probably won't this year. I think the Sox will offer the QO and Rodon will reject it. Rodon walked off the mound healthy in his last start and that's all he needed to do to secure a multi-year deal.  It may not be for $100M but it will be more than enough for him to go back to drinking beer and playing video games all off season.  The last thing he wants is another 1 year deal where he has to put in the work during the off season.  

One thing teams really like about Boras when they sign huge contracts, is he really pushes his guys to be in shape.

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5 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The QO is really stupid and needs to go away but probably won't this year. I think the Sox will offer the QO and Rodon will reject it. Rodon walked off the mound healthy in his last start and that's all he needed to do to secure a multi-year deal.  It may not be for $100M but it will be more than enough for him to go back to drinking beer and playing video games all off season.  The last thing he wants is another 1 year deal where he has to put in the work during the off season.  

To be fair, if you're going to talk about Rodon's offseason routine, you have to mention hunting in addition to the items spoken to above. 

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