Seiya Suzuki

[SCCWS]

Solid opinions  on the status of Seiya Suzuki .........................................

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I suggest How to Win Friends and Influence People, The Little Prince, The Celestine Prophecy, Mitch Albom, Chicken Soup for the Soul and Siddhartha.

All good titles. Why have I read all of these books and authors… What Twilight Zone episode are we in?

[caulfield12]

55 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Solid opinions  on the status of Seiya Suzuki .........................................

Seager

Acquire/extend Buxton without sacrificing Jimenez

Buying Suzuki, or perhaps Conforto OR Semien

(any of those five moves)
 

Along with Scherzer.   
 

That would give them 2 of the Top 10 RF arms in professional baseball, when paired w/ with Oscar Colas, who can replace Crochet ultimately from the LH side in the bullpen and as a spot starter/DH ala Ohtani.  That could also position the White Sox to go after Ohtani when he comes free as well…having two outfielders he already played with/against.
 

 

“Not to mention that Suzuki will be coming over at a younger age than both of them (Akiyama/Tsutsugo), heading into what would be his “peak” age of 27 in the states.

Ultimately, Seiya Suzuki is a player that every fan of MLB should be excited about coming over. The high floor and potential he has should make him an intriguing piece for GMs to chase heading into next year should he be posted. He's the type of guy every scout dreams about watching progress. As the season ends, we’ll find out officially from him and the team and the suspected bidding war will commence, pending CBA.”

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/10/22/seiya-suzuki-a-deep-dive-on-the-next-big-thing-out-of-japan

Edited November 21, 2021 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Heyman reporting he’s going to be posted tomorrow, which means his thirty day window would begin. Given that a lockout would freeze transactions, does that mean he’s going to rush and sign before dec 1?

[bmags]

Read a Mariners blog pegging him at 3/$21

Hes obviously a high variant outcome but if KW or Paddy were confident on this guy I think it may be the best chance to find some big production without losing future flexibility.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Heyman reporting he’s going to be posted tomorrow, which means his thirty day window would begin. Given that a lockout would freeze transactions, does that mean he’s going to rush and sign before dec 1?

Man I hate this system. Just brutal how it treated Ohtani (felt like owners gleefully screwing him over). 
 

Goes to show how important it is to these players to prove they are the best in the world, because I can’t imagine this will be much more lucrative.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Read a Mariners blog pegging him at 3/$21

Hes obviously a high variant outcome but if KW or Paddy were confident on this guy I think it may be the best chance to find some big production without losing future flexibility.

That sounds light and too heavily influenced by the two most recent Japanese outfielders and Kim from Korea…not thinking big enough, which definitely works in favor of the White Sox.

Let’s steal him from the Mariners…instead of ceding ground automatically on the Pacific Rim.

[Chicago White Sox]

27 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I love the 'go big or go home' approach.

But for the love of God, please don't ever suggest sending Eloy to the Twins. I think some people are forgetting how it was mentioned when he first got injured how he might not have his power back until 2022. Don't sell low on Eloy. He could easily be a top 3 or 4 hitter in baseball next year.

100% agree.  Eloy’s power will return next and dude will be a special hitter.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

Man I hate this system. Just brutal how it treated Ohtani (felt like owners gleefully screwing him over). 
 

Goes to show how important it is to these players to prove they are the best in the world, because I can’t imagine this will be much more lucrative.

Couldn’t have Ohtani waited one year and been an unrestricted free agent?

[Eminor3rd]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Couldn’t have Ohtani waited one year and been an unrestricted free agent?

I THINK it was two years. He would have needed to be 25 years old.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Couldn’t have Ohtani waited one year and been an unrestricted free agent?

He was 23 when he came over and his birthday is in July, so it was at least 2 years.

What other leagues are like “one of the best players in the world wants to come over, let’s throw walls up to keep him out!”

[Eminor3rd]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

He was 23 when he came over and his birthday is in July, so it was at least 2 years.

What other leagues are like “one of the best players in the world wants to come over, let’s throw walls up to keep him out!”

For sure, and in hindsight, it’s hard to argue his choice to sacrifice his earnings for the benefit of his personal development wasn’t absolutely wise. If he didn't start adjusting to the league for another couple years, there’s virtually no shot that he would have done what he just did this season. It’s nonsense to incentivize a player to do something other than what is going to lead him to reach his ceiling. We’re all lucky as fans that Ohtani ignored the incentive. 

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I THINK it was two years. He would have needed to be 25 years old.

 

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

He was 23 when he came over and his birthday is in July, so it was at least 2 years.

What other leagues are like “one of the best players in the world wants to come over, let’s throw walls up to keep him out!”

Oh not disagreeing with you guys at all.  It’s a shit system no doubt.

And you’re right, it was two years had he waited.  Still pretty nuts that he didn’t get the Angel’s entire bonus and only like $2M.  Dude sacrificed so much coming over when he did.

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 11/18/2021 at 5:15 PM, caulfield12 said:

Would prefer they take a shot at him rather than spend $100 million on Conforto, but neither are highly likely to occur.  Too much risk.

I think I'd agree with this. I think I'd prefer Suzuki at ~$7-11MM/yr for 3-5 years than Conforto @ $100MM.

I think that Suzuki would be an average to above average fielder, while Conforto's DRS and UZR have been negative in recent seasons.

And yes, while Conforto's a lefty, I have reasons to pause when another NL LHH coming off a down year is the target. 

All that said, I also agree with you that neither are likely to come here.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think I'd agree with this. I think I'd prefer Suzuki at ~$7-11MM/yr for 3-5 years than Conforto @ $100MM.

I think that Suzuki would be an average to above average fielder, while Conforto's DRS and UZR have been negative in recent seasons.

And yes, while Conforto's a lefty, I have reasons to pause when another NL LHH coming off a down year is the target. 

All that said, I also agree with you that neither are likely to come here.

Why is Conforto unlikely to come here?

[Two-Gun Pete]

11 minutes ago, fathom said:

Why is Conforto unlikely to come here?

Fair question.

For me, it's a couple of iissues here. First, despite the one rumor that the SOX will spend money, I reserve the right to doubt that it will happen until it does. We once were led to believe that "Harpchado" had a chance to occur, and then it didn't.

Second, this is an org that does its best work when a FA target has few suitors; to my recollection, NYM, Atlanta, Texas, Phillies, Brewers are all in on him, and perhaps the SOX.

We'll have to see. 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[fathom]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair question.

For me, it's a few issues here. First, despite the one rumor that the SOX will spend money, I reserve the right to doubt that it will happen until it does. We once were led to believe that "Harpchado" had a chance to occur, and then it didn't.

Second, this is an org that does its best work when a FA target has few suitors; to my recollection, NYM, Atlanta, Texas, Phillies, Brewers are all in on him, and perhaps the SOX.

We'll have to see. 

Mariners on him also

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 11/21/2021 at 10:25 AM, Eminor3rd said:

Heyman reporting he’s going to be posted tomorrow, which means his thirty day window would begin. Given that a lockout would freeze transactions, does that mean he’s going to rush and sign before dec 1?

According to THIS, if he does not sign before 12/1, his 30 day window would be "paused" until the CBA gets worked out.

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 minutes ago, fathom said:

Mariners on him also

Good catch. So, IOW, there may be what, 7 teams interested in Conforto? It doesn't seem to match this FO's M.O. for them to try to out-compete so many other teams for his signature.

Similarly for Suzuki, you've got Seattle, Texas, Atlanta, SFG, and perhaps Washington and Detroit as possible suitors; the SOX seem to get in on players with fewer suitors.

[bmags]

14 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

According to THIS, if he does not sign before 12/1, his 30 day window would be "paused" until the CBA gets worked out.

thank goodness this was thought of.

[Eminor3rd]

7 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

According to THIS, if he does not sign before 12/1, his 30 day window would be "paused" until the CBA gets worked out.

Very interesting 

[caulfield12]

8 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair question.

For me, it's a couple of iissues here. First, despite the one rumor that the SOX will spend money, I reserve the right to doubt that it will happen until it does. We once were led to believe that "Harpchado" had a chance to occur, and then it didn't.

Second, this is an org that does its best work when a FA target has few suitors; to my recollection, NYM, Atlanta, Texas, Phillies, Brewers are all in on him, and perhaps the SOX.

We'll have to see. 

Some have Conforto down in the $45-55 million range for three years, but he's either going to go for a short-term repair his value deal and go back into FA at age 30 a year from now OR take the longest number of years and total dollar amount in all likelihood.

There's also a number of concerns out there about a player like that in his early to mid 30's losing his skill set, since it's largely based on maintaining offensive productivity and not offset by much on the defensive side of the equation.

Logically enough, the White Sox would prefer to get him for 3 or potentially 4 years, but definitely not a 5 year commitment.

 

(Of course, we say the same thing about someone like Jose Abreu each and every year now, but eventually time will catch up with him...well, unless he's Nelson Cruz 2 minus the PED's.)

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Some have Conforto down in the $45-55 million range for three years, but he's either going to go for a short-term repair his value deal and go back into FA at age 30 a year from now OR take the longest number of years and total dollar amount in all likelihood.

To the bolded, when you say, "some," does anyone credible have Conforto signing for such a relative pittance? Do you have a link?

[ron883]

11 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

To the bolded, when you say, "some," does anyone credible have Conforto signing for such a relative pittance? Do you have a link?

He read it on Not Steve Cishek's twitter

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

To the bolded, when you say, "some," does anyone credible have Conforto signing for such a relative pittance? Do you have a link?

Nobody has a clue.  Just internet speculation. I still think either one year or as many as possible, but in the middle (3-4 years) seems the least likely.   And don't see a team risking $17.5~20 million for 4-5 seasons coming off his (relatively) disappointing 2021.

Edited November 23, 2021 by caulfield12