Merkin on five top offseason questions

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-offseason-questions
 

God help the White Sox if they plan to put Burger or Vaughn at second base OR cry poor during FA when they have the Kimbrel and/or Rodon contracts added onto the books….removing (at least temporarily) any and all “unprecedented financial flexibility,” as the Astros can simply bring back Correa OR sign a replacement like Semien AND give Verlander an incentives-based deal for a year at a time and still have another $20-30 million to play around with.

[bmags]

ok caulfield

[Chicago White Sox]

Those are probably five of the biggest questions, although getting some sense of payroll expectations for next year would be the big one.  The difference between say a $190M payroll and a $170M would be massive.  I still think we’ll be closer to the latter and that realistically means Kimbrel is gone (which we already know) and that we can only afford one larger contract.  As such, that means either Rodon returns on a QO or we sign a high end RF / 2B (with Conforto being far more realistic than the premium infielders).  I think we ultimately fill the rest of our holes with cheaper internal options and C tier free agents.

[Chicago White Sox]

I will add if there’s a way to somehow retain Rodon & sign Conforto, that would be beyond amazing and I’d totally be ok with dumpster diving at 2B and the final spot or two in the bullpen.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Those are probably five of the biggest questions, although getting some sense of payroll expectations for next year would be the big one.  The difference between say a $190M payroll and a $170M would be massive.  I still think we’ll be closer to the latter and that realistically means Kimbrel is gone (which we already know) and that we can only afford one larger contract.  As such, that means either Rodon returns on a QO or we sign a high end RF / 2B (with Conforto being far more realistic than the premium infielders).  I think we ultimately fill the rest of our holes with cheaper internal options and C tier free agents.

They’re much better off with Conforto and then using their trade ammunition (whatever there is remaining next year at the deadline) to add more starting pitching.

They can get by with what they have on the pitching front and maybe one more veteran reclamation project, at least until July.

Which means Lopez, Lambert and Stiever.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

ok caulfield

Merkin is the one who wrote it…speculating about either Burger or Vaughn at second might as well be Jermaine Dye on the infield.

He also acknowledged bringing back Kimbrel, yet again.  

Where does that put payroll, adding Kimbrel’s $16 million without Rodon and a 2B or RFer?

Edited October 21, 2021 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I will add if there’s a way to somehow retain Rodon & sign Conforto, that would be beyond amazing and I’d totally be ok with dumpster diving at 2B and the final spot or two in the bullpen.

The way isn’t complicated, it just takes a $175 or $180 million payroll. Let Kimbrel go, give Rodon the QO and either sign him to that or a little more than that on a 1 year deal, and sign Conforto to an Ozuna level deal (he probably won’t get more than that from anyone if he has a QO attached).

[maloney.adam]

Merkin kept saying the same things at the trade deadline as well.

Edited October 21, 2021 by maloney.adam

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I will add if there’s a way to somehow retain Rodon & sign Conforto, that would be beyond amazing and I’d totally be ok with dumpster diving at 2B and the final spot or two in the bullpen.

If we sign a LEGIT RF or 2B, I am fine with the other being in-house or dumpster dive signing.

 

Ala, if we sign Semien for 2B, I am fine with Engel/Sheets.  If we sign Conforto, I am fine with Leury/Romy/Hernandez

[ChiSox59]

I have grown to dislike Merkin's reporting - he always seems to just give the worst case scenarios so if things don't turn out better than that, he has tried to quell the hopes of Sox fans. 

Obviously Boob already reported that Kimbrel's option will be picked up, but Merkin confirms as such here.  I think that is noteworthy for the many people that feel the Sox should reject the option.  Boob's takes are usually only about 50% right anyhow.  

[Quin]

Caulfield: God help the Sox if they do these things.

Also Caulfield: The under .500 Padres might be ok next year due to a AA pitcher that regressed and several pitchers coming back from severe injuries.

On 10/1/2021 at 5:58 PM, caulfield12 said:

They still haven’t traded their Top 5…Gore disappointed and Abrams is hurt.

If Clevinger comes back healthy and they can fix Lamet or Morejon (or Gore), they might be okay.

The biggest argument is that standing pat with Patino, Quantrill and Ty France instead of trading Myers or Hosmer would have led to better overall results this year and into the future.  On the other side of the ledger, the Musgrove move was one of the better trades, actually.  But way way too much tinkering.

Secondarily, they have to decide what to do with Pham (likely gone), if Grisham can play everyday and why they traded for Frazier instead of starting pitching at the deadline.

 

With that roster/payroll, trading Machado and moving Tatis to 3b and giving Abrams SS makes the most sense for the clubhouse, positionally, and financial flexibility.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The way isn’t complicated, it just takes a $175 or $180 million payroll. Let Kimbrel go, give Rodon the QO and either sign him to that or a little more than that on a 1 year deal, and sign Conforto to an Ozuna level deal (he probably won’t get more than that from anyone if he has a QO attached).

That’s the big question though and would still require dumping a big chunk of Keuchel’s salary.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If we sign a LEGIT RF or 2B, I am fine with the other being in-house or dumpster dive signing.

 

Ala, if we sign Semien for 2B, I am fine with Engel/Sheets.  If we sign Conforto, I am fine with Leury/Romy/Hernandez

Fully agree

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Quin said:

Caulfield: God help the Sox if they do these things.

Also Caulfield: The under .500 Padres might be ok next year due to a AA pitcher that regressed and several pitchers coming back from severe injuries.

 

Did you call the Kimbrel trade a mistake the day it was made?  Go back and review that thread as well.

Point 2, hard to control for having two subpar managers and counting that are controlled by the GM and essentially picked for "manageability" by the front office, the polar opposite of the White Sox issue with TLR and Hahn.  And the Padres can at least argue they won a playoff series, even though their collapse from 17 games over makes the White Sox temporarily look like the smarter organization...but they still definitely have some room to maneuver with their farm system.  That said, they have to deal Myers/Hosmer/maybe Darvish or Frazier to get some breathing room financially. 

So do the White Sox, with Kimbrel and Keuchel on the books.

And one can argue they could have sat back like the White Sox if they didn't have the strongest franchise in baseball in front of them, not that Hahn didn't make a similar mistake chasing after veterans to get the Sox over the top, as well.  Preller is the only GM to do worse than Hahn at the trade deadline, and he paid dearly for it.  All the swirling rumors unconsummated created an irreparable clubhouse rift and split playing time without addressing the rotation...whereas we didn't add Marte or Bryant, etc.

Finally, the Giants have nothing to show for such a historic season, either, in the end. It's all about coming out on top in the postseason.

Edited October 21, 2021 by caulfield12

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Did you call the Kimbrel trade a mistake the day it was made?  Go back and review that thread as well.

Point 2, hard to control for having two subpar managers and counting that are controlled by the GM and essentially picked for "manageability" by the front office, the polar opposite of the White Sox issue with TLR and Hahn.  And the Padres can at least argue they won a playoff series, even though their collapse from 17 games  over makes the White Sox temporarily look like the smarter organization...but they still definitely have some room to maneuver with their farm system.  That said, they have to deal Myers/Hosmer/maybe Darvish or Frazier to get some breathing room financially. 

So do the White Sox, with Kimbrel and Keuchel on the books.

And one can argue they could have sat back like the White Sox if they didn't have the strongest franchise in baseball in front of them, not that Hahn didn't make a similar mistake chasing after veterans to get the Sox over the top, as well.

Nah, I liked the Kimbrel trade and drank the kool-aid. Whoops. You also posted this in October, well after the Padres pitching staff was shown to be horrendous.

And the Padres won a playoff series in 2020, great. They finished under .500 and have Myers/Hosmer ($82.5M vs. $34M owed to Keuchel and Kimbrel), articles are coming out about how Preller looks like a batshit crazy man, they're going to lose one of their prospects to dump Hosmer. Don't forget Tatis is likely going to miss time with shoulder surgery. 

But don't worry, their pitching staff will be just fine, because of a bunch of dudes with either Tommy John or other injuries. They did a great job of rebuilding their innings this year.

[35thstreetswarm]

6 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If we sign a LEGIT RF or 2B, I am fine with the other being in-house or dumpster dive signing.

 

Ala, if we sign Semien for 2B, I am fine with Engel/Sheets.  If we sign Conforto, I am fine with Leury/Romy/Hernandez

I've said the same, and it seems like a lot of folks on the board share this view.  All in all it seems like the collective expectations of the board for the offseason are quite a bit lower than last year (in large part because the needs are fewer and less glaring).  Hell, just go out and sign Conforto -- not exactly a superstar -- and a lot of us are placated.  Could this be the rare offseason where we end up happy?!

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I've said the same, and it seems like a lot of folks on the board share this view.  All in all it seems like the collective expectations of the board for the offseason are quite a bit lower than last year (in large part because the needs are fewer and less glaring).  Hell, just go out and sign Conforto -- not exactly a superstar -- and a lot of us are placated.  Could this be the rare offseason where we end up happy?!

Sir, have you met us and/or the White Sox front office?

In the unlikely scenario they make the correct moves, people here will not be happy.

[35thstreetswarm]

Just now, Quin said:

Sir, have you met us and/or the White Sox front office?

In the unlikely scenario they make the correct moves, people here will not be happy.

I thought it went without saying that the last question was a joke   But in all seriousness, it is striking that the board has gone from pining for Springer plus Bauer to hoping we can just sign Michael Conforto.  The chasm between hope and reality has narrowed considerably.

[South Side Hit Men]

Yes, I found it odd the team’s paid PR guy even mention Vaughn at second base.

Vaughn is going to be a major asset. He did great filling in on the fly, but it is best he is comfortable playing a reasonable range of positions he can be successful at long term (1B or LF).

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Merkin is the one who wrote it…speculating about either Burger or Vaughn at second might as well be Jermaine Dye on the infield.

6 hours ago, Quin said:

Caulfield: God help the Sox if they do these things.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Quin said:

Nah, I liked the Kimbrel trade and drank the kool-aid. Whoops. You also posted this in October, well after the Padres pitching staff was shown to be horrendous.

And the Padres won a playoff series in 2020, great. They finished under .500 and have Myers/Hosmer ($82.5M vs. $34M owed to Keuchel and Kimbrel), articles are coming out about how Preller looks like a batshit crazy man, they're going to lose one of their prospects to dump Hosmer. Don't forget Tatis is likely going to miss time with shoulder surgery. 

But don't worry, their pitching staff will be just fine, because of a bunch of dudes with either Tommy John or other injuries. They did a great job of rebuilding their innings this year.

Look at the numbers with RISP after the middle of August....the sinking offense helped to crush the pitchers as well.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32431077/how-evaluators-rank-mlb-billion-dollar-class-free-agent-shortstops-where-land

Tigers likely to sign one of the Big 5 SS's, with Correa reuniting with Hinch seen by writers as one of the potential pairings.

If that does happen and Tigers' prospects take the next step, they could be close to competitive as early as next season.  Still need at least another 2-3 lineup slots solidified, in addition to their obvious top draft picks coming up and producing.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Quin said:

Sir, have you met us and/or the White Sox front office?

In the unlikely scenario they make the correct moves, people here will not be happy.

That's the larger problem, even when they make correct - looking FA moves and "win the offseason," the subsequent results haven't matched the hype...from Dunn to Cabrera/Robertson/La Roche all the way through the trade deadline this year.

The exceptions being the Big 3 trades for prospects and then Luis Robert, as well as intl. free agents like Abreu.

And, this past year, pretty much nobody thought adding Eaton was wise.  The biggest move in retaining Rodon was the least expected to pan out but lowest risk at least.  And then Lynn, but his repeatability late career now is up in the air, just like Keuchel's.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Quin said:

Sir, have you met us and/or the White Sox front office?

In the unlikely scenario they make the correct moves, people here will not be happy.

Man, had the Sox signed Wheeler the same offseason they got Grandal I would have been the happiest person in the world.  So damn close to the perfect offseason for White Sox standards.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Man, had the Sox signed Wheeler the same offseason they got Grandal I would have been the happiest person in the world.  So damn close to the perfect offseason for White Sox standards.

Yep, Phillies won so to speak on both Harper and Wheeler yet with nothing to show for it.  Harper has such a high ceiling but struggles to consistently maintain it.

[poppysox]

On 10/21/2021 at 9:21 AM, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If we sign a LEGIT RF or 2B, I am fine with the other being in-house or dumpster dive signing.

 

Ala, if we sign Semien for 2B, I am fine with Engel/Sheets.  If we sign Conforto, I am fine with Leury/Romy/Hernandez

Makes sense.

[raBBit]

20 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Could this be the rare offseason where we end up happy?!

Sox acquired three all stars last offseason so it's probably not going to live up to that standard.