The MLB lockout is lifted!

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think this ship has already started to sail. They had every opportunity to allow these two to get stretched out last year, but alas, this organization seems hooked on the sugar high of "NOW," rather than maximizing these two.

That said, I'm curious as to why you believe that a shortened season would complete the RP'ing of Kopech and Crochet? 

A year they should build their innings would be again shortened wasting another year.

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

A year they should build their innings would be again shortened wasting another year.

I'm trying to be an optimist, during this cavalcade of crap.

Lets say it'll be a 60 game season in 2022. That leaves 12 starts to cover by whomever has to replace Rodon. Add in 2-3 skipped starts for each of Keuchel and Lynn for aging reasons, and the odd 1 or so skipped starts for whatever reason for Giolito and Cease.

Back of the envelope, that leaves ~60ish IP for starts in the regular season for Kopech, and 35 IP for starts for Crochet. Throw in another 5-10 IP in the playoffs, and Kopech could be at ~70, while Crochet could be at 40 or so. A handful of relief appearances for Crochet, and he's up at 50 IP

By 2023, Kopech could be ramped up to 120 or so IP, while Crochet is ramped up to 100, yes?

Why wouldn't a shortened season be a competitive benefit for this roster?

[Tnetennba]

3 hours ago, Texsox said:

I'm not certain at what point caving would look like.  Is getting half of what they are asking for caving? 25%? 

Cave as in give up on their own asks just to start the season on time.  That's the pressure campaign the owners are pushing with the hard deadline and I don't see the players caving just to meet that.

[Tnetennba]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think right now the players caving is then accepting the owners’ current offer. So, getting like 2%.

Yes, caving as in taking the owner's bad deal just to meet the deadline to start on time.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm trying to be an optimist, during this cavalcade of crap.

Lets say it'll be a 60 game season in 2022. That leaves 12 starts to cover by whomever has to replace Rodon. Add in 2-3 skipped starts for each of Keuchel and Lynn for aging reasons, and the odd 1 or so skipped starts for whatever reason for Giolito and Cease.

Back of the envelope, that leaves ~60ish IP for starts in the regular season for Kopech, and 35 IP for starts for Crochet. Throw in another 5-10 IP in the playoffs, and Kopech could be at ~70, while Crochet could be at 40 or so. A handful of relief appearances for Crochet, and he's up at 50 IP

By 2023, Kopech could be ramped up to 120 or so IP, while Crochet is ramped up to 100, yes?

Why wouldn't a shortened season be a competitive benefit for this roster?

The risk for a team like the White Sox is the "Black swan" event - the White Sox should win 90+ games this year with this roster. But imagine in a short season that there's a key injury like last year. Maybe 2 -pick your players. Then another guy gets off to a slow start - the opposite of Abreu and Anderson in 2020. Now all of a sudden they're on what would have been an "84 win pace", and there's only a couple weeks left to correct it. Example - the Astros in 2020 were a really good team, they made the 2020 ALCS and the 2021 world series, but in 2020 they were below .500. If there was no expanded playoffs...the Astros don't make it.

Or alternatively, imagine that Detroit comes out on fire and gets a 4 game lead. That's suddenly really tough to overcome, there's already only a couple weeks left. 

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

A question that seems likely to be relevant but hopefully won't be:

Let's say they blow past the "deadline" next Monday, another week or so goes by, and it's clear Opening Day won't be happening on time. 

If the 2 sides are still very far apart at that deadline, what is there to get them talking again any time soon?

Honestly, nothing.  If this is how it plays out, we will get a 60 game season again, maybe - which deep down is what I feared the owners always wanted.  The lockout has yet to accomplish ownership's demands/desires, but they still seem intent on crushing the union, so we'll ultimately end up back at a stalemate.  And with little incentive to bargain the owners will pack it up and stall like its December all over again.

[MiddleCoastBias]

4 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

cancelled my MLBtv renewal.  My small symbolic act.

Cancelled mine after the Machado/Harper fiasco.

Only so much we can do to get a point across, "vote with your dollar".

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The risk for a team like the White Sox is the "Black swan" event - the White Sox should win 90+ games this year with this roster. But imagine in a short season that there's a key injury like last year. Maybe 2 -pick your players. Then another guy gets off to a slow start - the opposite of Abreu and Anderson in 2020. Now all of a sudden they're on what would have been an "84 win pace", and there's only a couple weeks left to correct it. 

Or alternatively, imagine that Detroit comes out on fire and gets a 4 game lead. That's suddenly really tough to overcome, there's already only a couple weeks left. 

This is a fair point: that the margin for error to rule the ALC has narrowed.

In looking at what Detroit have done in the offseason and their prospects, it sure looks like they're getting ready to be relevant again. In Cleveland, their SP assembly line is overdue to produce another significant arm or two.

So yes, it was conclusively the right time to send down Kopech and Crochet last year to get stretched out. But alas, the "sugar high" of keeping them here was just too tempting, I guess.

 

But absent a black swan event/bad injury luck, I still think a shortened season could help this team in 22. With fewer IP to cover, it won't be incumbent on Kopech and/or Crochet to miracle their asses into 120+ IP.

[Jack Parkman]

19 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

This is a fair point: that the margin for error to rule the ALC has narrowed.

In looking at what Detroit have done in the offseason and their prospects, it sure looks like they're getting ready to be relevant again. In Cleveland, their SP assembly line is overdue to produce another significant arm or two.

So yes, it was conclusively the right time to send down Kopech and Crochet last year to get stretched out. But alas, the "sugar high" of keeping them here was just too tempting, I guess.

 

But absent a black swan event/bad injury luck, I still think a shortened season could help this team in 22. With fewer IP to cover, it won't be incumbent on Kopech and/or Crochet to miracle their asses into 120+ IP.

I'm as big of a Garrett Crochet fan as anyone, but the truth of the matter is that if he's going to be working at 95-98 mph he doesn't have a 3rd pitch. There's not enough velocity separation between his fastball and changeup. 

It sucks but Crochet is probably a high leverage reliever unless he can find a 3rd pitch. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Texsox]

1 hour ago, Tnetennba said:

Cave as in give up on their own asks just to start the season on time.  That's the pressure campaign the owners are pushing with the hard deadline and I don't see the players caving just to meet that.

So anything less than everything they asked for? You don't think they asked for more than they expected to leave room to negotiate? No meeting in the middle? 

[Two-Gun Pete]

46 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm as big of a Garrett Crochet fan as anyone, but the truth of the matter is that if he's going to be working at 95-98 mph he doesn't have a 3rd pitch. There's not enough velocity separation between his fastball and changeup. 

It sucks but Crochet is probably a high leverage reliever unless he can find a 3rd pitch. 

Well, as Ned Flanders' parents said, "We've tried nothing, man! And we're fresh outta ideas!"

I get where you're coming from. But what, exactly, have they tried to teach him a 3rd pitch? How have they tried to maximize this asset/his ability?

 

I feel like them doing Jack and Shit to even try to see if Crochet could ever fulfill his potential is yet another royal fuckup. I mean, I don't think they've even tried to give him some time in MiLB to figure his shit out; it hasn't exactly been as though the rest of the division was right on their heels, and they desperately NEED him to rescue the BP, IMO...

Edited February 24, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Tnetennba]

13 minutes ago, Texsox said:

So anything less than everything they asked for? You don't think they asked for more than they expected to leave room to negotiate? No meeting in the middle? 

The owners are yet to make a legit offer to this point in my view, so yes, essentially if the players gave in now just to start the season by this deadline they would be essentially giving up on most if not all of their asks.  I fully believe the players will meet in the middle, but the owners have to budge off of not giving up a damn thing in order to do so.  We aren't even close to that yet.

[Texsox]

Gotcha. At first I thought you believed the players tossed out a final offer and anything less was caving. 

I'm good with this taking as long as necessary. The players shouldn't feel any pressure to start the season. 

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Yeah the draft lottery is pointless 

I am glad I am not the only one who feels this way.  With as long of a leeway between draft day and a players actually MLB usefulness as there is, plus as much bust variability as exists between similar players, I don't see a draft lottery making any difference to whether a team tanks or not.  Are they really going to look at a drop of a few picks the first round and think that all of the rest of the benefits of a tank aren't worth it?  I can't see it.

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think this ship has already started to sail. They had every opportunity to allow these two to get stretched out last year, but alas, this organization seems hooked on the sugar high of "NOW," rather than maximizing these two.

That said, I'm curious as to why you believe that a shortened season would complete the RP'ing of Kopech and Crochet? 

For the obvious reason that they both badly need innings.  Kopech needs to throw 120+ innings this year.  I suspect they'll use Crochet similarly to how they used Kopech last year and get him up around 70+ (assuming full season).

If we play a 60 game season, neither are getting those totals.  

I don't worry too much about Kopech.  He's going to an elite SP.  Not sure Crochet ever makes it into the rotation tho. 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

24 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

For the obvious reason that they both badly need innings.  Kopech needs to throw 120+ innings this year.  I suspect they'll use Crochet similarly to how they used Kopech last year and get him up around 70+ (assuming full season).

If we play a 60 game season, neither are getting those totals.  

I don't worry too much about Kopech.  He's going to an elite SP.  Not sure Crochet ever makes it into the rotation tho. 

Ugh, WTF didn't they start the stretching out last season? Why didn't they at least try to find out if either or both could become top SPs?

That aside, I sure hope youre right WRT Kopech. Otherwise, this window closes the second Giolito hits free agency, IMO.

[Bob Sacamano]

31 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

For the obvious reason that they both badly need innings.  Kopech needs to throw 120+ innings this year.  I suspect they'll use Crochet similarly to how they used Kopech last year and get him up around 70+ (assuming full season).

If we play a 60 game season, neither are getting those totals.  

I don't worry too much about Kopech.  He's going to an elite SP.  Not sure Crochet ever makes it into the rotation tho. 

Yeah I would have liked them to get a bit more stretched out in the minors, especially since you could have recovered a year of control of Kopech. 

Also kinda wish Vaughn would have been in the minors for like the 12 days it would have taken for the extra year considering he played in like 4 games in that span.

[southsider2k5]

[Tnetennba]

 

[Tnetennba]

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

We’re fucked.

[Ducksnort]

This season is ovah!

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, ScooterMcGee said:

This season is ovah!

I'm not ready to go that far, but sadly I don't believe we will see baseball any time soon.

[southsider2k5]