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southsider2k5

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1 hour ago, ptatc said:

I don't think it mattered if they pitched in the minors or majors last year. Both were on a strict innings limit due to previous lack of innings. Especially Crochet, he had pitched so few innings he would have been on a reliever innings limit in either situation. Neither could be "stretched out" too much.

This was in response to "everyone agrees they should have been in the minors." Either situation would have worked with pros and cons to both.

Gotcha. I was concerned that maybe you knew something about their health statuses that would preclude them from getting stretched out.

In any case, the stretching out is gonna have to happen at some point, IMO. Lynn and Keuchel aren't getting younger. And Giolito's as good as gone in a couple seasons. Meanwhile, there ain't much in the farm, and Detroit and KC are getting better.

To me, if they're gonna do it, 2022 presents perhaps the last chance to stretch them out, given where we are relative to our division enemies, and the makeup of the org overall.

Edited by Two-Gun Pete
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1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Gotcha. I was concerned that maybe you knew something about their health statuses that would preclude them from getting stretched out.

In any case, the stretching out is gonna have to happen at some point, IMO. Lynn and Keuchel aren't getting younger. And Giolito's as good as gone in a couple seasons. Meanwhile, there ain't much in the farm, and Detroit and KC are getting better.

To me, if they're gonna do it, 2022 presents perhaps the last chance to stretch them out, given where we are relative to our division enemies, and the makeup of the org overall.

Agreed. Crochet will be in the Kopech role of last year, hopefully he can handle the increased load and not have too many injuries. If he does it will set him back just like Kopech.

Kopech should make 24 starts or so with his innings limit based on last years workload. Maybe someone like Lopez picking up the others as a spot starter.

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1 hour ago, ptatc said:

I don't think it mattered if they pitched in the minors or majors last year. Both were on a strict innings limit due to previous lack of innings. Especially Crochet, he had pitched so few innings he would have been on a reliever innings limit in either situation. Neither could be "stretched out" too much.

This was in response to "everyone agrees they should have been in the minors." Either situation would have worked with pros and cons to both.

And also they did try pushing Kopech for more and more innings, but he got hurt, so they backed off.

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12 team playoff structure sounds like it'll be top 2 division winners get byes.  Worst division winners gets 3rd WC, and other 2 WC play a 3 game series.  Winners advance.  

Hopefully they go to a 7 game series after that.  That's a pretty garbage scenario for the 3rd division winner having to play a 3 game series.  Hopefully they got home field for the whole series.   But far better than 14 teams.  Can't really go beyond three games in that first round with byes tho - can't have a team sitting at home for a week really.   

Edited by ChiSox59
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13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And also they did try pushing Kopech for more and more innings, but he got hurt, so they backed off.

Injury is a good reason to back off. It wrecks the best of plans.

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9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

12 team playoff structure sounds like it'll be top 2 division winners get byes.  Worst division winners gets 3rd WC, and other 2 WC play a 3 game series.  Winners advance.  

Hopefully they go to a 7 game series after that.  That's a pretty garbage scenario for the 3rd division winner having to play a 3 game series.  Hopefully they got home field for the whole series.   But far better than 14 teams.  Can't really go beyond three games in that first round with byes tho - can't have a team sitting at home for a week really.   

If the third division winner is given some sort of an advantage for their series against the 6 seed (home field throughout, ghost win, etc.), do you think the 4 seed (1 WC) would get the same advantage over the 5 seed (2 WC)?

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10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If the third division winner is given some sort of an advantage for their series against the 6 seed (home field throughout, ghost win, etc.), do you think the 4 seed (1 WC) would get the same advantage over the 5 seed (2 WC)?

Will be interesting to see.  Definitely think the division winner deserves a sizeable advantage.  Perhaps HFA for full series and a ghost win. Feel much less so that the WC does, but wouldn't really care too much either way.  Would be kind of cool if they built in a nuance like if WC #1 was 3 games or more ahead of WC 2, they get full HFA advantage.  Otherwise its a 3 game series rotating H/A.  But with a 3 game series, pretty tough to rotate H/A so they'll probably just give the higher seed HFA for full series. 

Edited by ChiSox59
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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Will be interesting to see.  Definitely think the division winner deserves a sizeable advantage.  Perhaps HFA and a ghost win. Feel much less so that the WC does, but wouldn't really care too much either way.  Would be kind of cool if they built in a nuance like if WC #1 was 3 games or more ahead of WC 2, they get full HFA advantage.  Otherwise its a 3 game series rotating H/A.  But with a 3 game series, pretty tough to rotate H/A so they'll probably just give the higher seed HFA. 

Owners won't go for ghost wins because it reduces TV revenues. HFA throughout might work though.

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2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Owners won't go for ghost wins because it reduces TV revenues. HFA throughout might work though.

I mean is HFA throughout a 3 game series really even that big of an advantage for a team that won a division?  I don't think so.  

You could win 95 games, be the 3rd division winner, andnd now you're playing a slightly .500 team in a 3 game series for your life.  ANything can happen in a 3 game series - that 95 win team lost more than a couple 3 game series at home during the season.  Seems like a tough way for that division winner to go home.  But again, its better than 14 teams.  But that division winner deserves a legit advantage and more than just playing at home.  

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I mean is HFA throughout a 3 game series really even that big of an advantage for a team that won a division?  I don't think so.  

You could win 95 games, be the 3rd division winner, andnd now you're playing a slightly .500 team in a 3 game series for your life.  ANything can happen in a 3 game series - that 95 win team lost more than a couple 3 game series at home during the season.  Seems like a tough way for that division winner to go home.  But again, its better than 14 teams.  But that division winner deserves a legit advantage and more than just playing at home.  

3 straight at home is a pretty big advantage, is it a big enough advantage? Eh, I don't know.

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

So with the new playoff format, basically all teams that win 82 games or more will get in most years, right? 

Last year in WC teams in AL would have been Boston (92 wins), NYY (92 wins) and Toronto (91 wins). In NL, Dodgers (106 wins), Cardinals (90 wins) and Cincy (83 wins).  

In 2019, Oakland (97 wins), Tampa (96 wins) and Cleveland (93 wins). In NL, Washington (93 wins), Milwaukee (89 wins) and Mets (86 wins). 

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Last year in WC teams in AL would have been Boston (92 wins), NYY (92 wins) and Toronto (91 wins). In NL, Dodgers (106 wins), Cardinals (90 wins) and Cincy (83 wins).  

In 2019, Oakland (97 wins), Tampa (96 wins) and Cleveland (93 wins). In NL, Washington (93 wins), Milwaukee (89 wins) and Mets (86 wins). 

It’s funny… because all of those teams are deserving, except for the Reds and the Mets. ?

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I mean is HFA throughout a 3 game series really even that big of an advantage for a team that won a division?  I don't think so.  

You could win 95 games, be the 3rd division winner, andnd now you're playing a slightly .500 team in a 3 game series for your life.  ANything can happen in a 3 game series - that 95 win team lost more than a couple 3 game series at home during the season.  Seems like a tough way for that division winner to go home.  But again, its better than 14 teams.  But that division winner deserves a legit advantage and more than just playing at home.  

When your pitchers include Lance Lynn...yes

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We really don’t know how the win totals will shake out until it’s implemented and some teams choose not to be sellers at the deadline, or how they build their teams in the offseason to begin with. I’m hopeful six in each league won’t be a huge deal. Seven in each league is hot garbage.

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Last year in WC teams in AL would have been Boston (92 wins), NYY (92 wins) and Toronto (91 wins). In NL, Dodgers (106 wins), Cardinals (90 wins) and Cincy (83 wins).  

In 2019, Oakland (97 wins), Tampa (96 wins) and Cleveland (93 wins). In NL, Washington (93 wins), Milwaukee (89 wins) and Mets (86 wins). 

Damn....thats higher wins than I thought. Seems there is still pretty good incentive for teams to be good. 

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9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

So with the new playoff format, basically all teams that win 82 games or more will get in most years, right? 

Looking into it now (the past 5 years not counting 2020), it really varies. 3 teams .500 or better would have missed the playoffs last year under the 12 team format, 4 in 2019 and 2018, 2017 would be a wash (only 5 teams .500 or better in the AL somehow lol), and then 4 again in 2016. 

Of course, there are a lot of high 70/80 win teams that might have fizzled at the end or just barely got beat out by other teams that made it in I guess.

Edited by Bob Sacamano
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4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Damn....thats higher wins than I thought. Seems there is still pretty good incentive for teams to be good. 

Some rough napkin math would probably have a division winner at 95 games having roughly a 60/40 win expectancy for each game at home over a 84 win team, maybe even slightly higher.  If the division winner has an ace that turns that first one into something like 70/30, even better.

I dunno, I'm fairly open to this change, I think it's better than what we have now.

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