Sox give no qualifying offers

[southsider2k5]

53 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

As usual I will go for this in reply - are you sure that after this season, with Engel’s injury issues, with them seemingly believing Escobar had an issue that didn’t occur, with all the other injuries this team had…that the training staff deserves this confidence?

Yet, should be trusted to keep Rodon healthy when it's pretty much never happened. 

[Dick Allen]

There is clearly something going on with Rodons shoulder that makes the team think his 2021 campaign is not repeatable.  If they are wrong,, they  should be removed.. But they know a lot more than we do.. The QO is one way they wouldn't have had to negotiate with Boras, something they really have no interest doing. See Harper, Bryce.

[Chicago White Sox]

From my perspective, there are three options for why the Sox didn’t extend a QO to Rodon:

1. The Sox are concerned about his medicals and ability to stay healthy next year
2. The Sox have other pitching targets they like better and would rather invest in
3. The budget is going to be limited and they need to spread that $18.4M around

The first two would be very acceptable reasons to pass on a QO, whereas option three would be highly problematic for obvious reasons.  Let me clear, if the Sox go into the season with Kopech & Keuchel as their #4 & #5 starters, then Jerry & the front office should be roasted for passing on the QO here.  The Sox have to add another high-end starter to the mix, even if that means dumping Dallas at 50 cents on the dollar or forcing him into a long relief role to start the year.  For now, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s some combo of options 1 & 2 that drove the decision here.

[hi8is]

43 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Pisses me off. Stupid move by Sox. 

Yes.

[Jerksticks]

10 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I think this situation was tough for them. They probably assume he would accept the offer and they don't want to pay it. 

Me too.  

 

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From my perspective, there are three options for why the Sox didn’t extend a QO to Rodon:

1. The Sox are concerned about his medicals and ability to stay healthy next year
2. The Sox have other pitching targets they like better and would rather invest in
3. The budget is going to be limited and they need to spread that $18.4M around

The first two would be very acceptable reasons to pass on a QO, whereas option three would be highly problematic for obvious reasons.  Let me clear, if the Sox go into the season with Kopech & Keuchel as their #4 & #5 starters, then Jerry & the front office should be roasted for passing on the QO here.  The Sox have to add another high-end starter to the mix, even if that means dumping Dallas at 50 cents on the dollar or forcing him into a long relief role to start the year.  For now, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s some combo of options 1 & 2 that drove the decision here.

Right now I think it’s #2 because of #1, which IMO is a good thing for us fans.  It means the FO wants more of a sure bet because it’s World Series or bust from here on out.  
 

#3 sucks.  Please god don’t be 3.

[Boopa1219]

I don’t get the decision not to extend the QO to Rodon. It’s a bad sign for the off-season, it shows us that Jerry still isn’t willing to spend like an owner of a major market team.

The only acceptable answer is that they think Rodon is physically toast and don’t want to risk wasting $18M on someone who’s at the end of their rope physically.

With Kopech going back into the rotation, pitching is now the biggest need alongside 2B in my opinion. They need to find guy who can eat innings, and quality innings at that. Delfascanti is a dude I like for the Sox. 

[South Side Hit Men]

Hahn’s comments Friday focused on internal options improving, be it a healthy Robert, younger players like Sheets and Vaughn improving, Kopech transitioning into the rotation, and Crochet into Kopech’s 2021 role.

Quote

“We feel very bullish on the futures of Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets,” Hahn said. “We envision them playing significant roles on multiple White Sox clubs going forward.”… 

If the off-season acquisitions boil down to

• Leury ($8M/2 years)
• Tepera or equivalent ($9M/2years)
• Josh Harrison/Jose Iglesias type at 2B ($5M/1yr + team option or $1M Buyout)
• Danny Duffy/Michael Wacha/Michael Pineda SP (1-2 years /$7-8M AAV)
• Kimbrel for a prospect, bench and or low leverage bullpen piece or swingman

Will folks here be satisfied? Because this seems like what will likely occur based on their current payroll commitments.

Hahn said “his team was on the floor” after Hendricks, and has since added $19M, 10-15% of payroll, on Lance Lynn for 2022 (assuming Kimbrel’s $16M is gone). The Sox also have significant payroll bumps due for the Core the next two seasons.

[Balta1701]

39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From my perspective, there are three options for why the Sox didn’t extend a QO to Rodon:

1. The Sox are concerned about his medicals and ability to stay healthy next year
2. The Sox have other pitching targets they like better and would rather invest in
3. The budget is going to be limited and they need to spread that $18.4M around

The first two would be very acceptable reasons to pass on a QO, whereas option three would be highly problematic for obvious reasons.  Let me clear, if the Sox go into the season with Kopech & Keuchel as their #4 & #5 starters, then Jerry & the front office should be roasted for passing on the QO here.  The Sox have to add another high-end starter to the mix, even if that means dumping Dallas at 50 cents on the dollar or forcing him into a long relief role to start the year.  For now, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s some combo of options 1 & 2 that drove the decision here.

I gotta say, #2 on its own would make no sense to me. If they believed he was healthy - are they going to find any other 5 win pitchers on a 1 year, $18 million deal? Not likely. And with Keuchel being a guy we could readily drop from the rotation for at least part of the year, there would be plenty of need for 130 or 140 innings of his work next year. 

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Hahn’s comments Friday focused on internal options improving, be it a healthy Robert, younger players like Sheets and Vaughn improving, Kopech transitioning into the rotation, and Crochet into Kopech’s 2021 role.

If the off-season acquisitions boil down to

• Leury ($8M/2 years)
• Tepera or equivalent ($9M/2years)
• Josh Harrison/Jose Iglesias type at 2B ($5M/1yr + team option or $1M Buyout)
• Danny Duffy/Michael Wacha/Michael Pineda SP (1-2 years /$7-8M AAV)
• Kimbrel for a prospect, bench and or low leverage bullpen piece or swingman

Will folks here be satisfied? Because this seems like what will likely occur based on their current payroll commitments.

Hahn said “his team was on the floor” after Hendricks, and has since added $19M, 10-15% of payroll, on Lance Lynn for 2022 (assuming Kimbrel’s $16M is gone). The Sox also have significant payroll bumps due for the Core the next two seasons.

That team wouldn’t win the AL Central, but good news is that’s about the worst possible scenario for the offseason

[maloney.adam]

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/white-sox-carlos-rodon-hits-open-market-without-qualifying-offer

This article really highlights a couple of Hahn’s quotes from the presser in regards to Carlos. Watch the video and read the quotes below. If you really analyze what he said, Hahn gives clues into what they were leaning towards. The second quote is like dead giveaway so it shouldn’t have surprised anyone that he wasn’t extended the QO.

Quote #1: “Obviously this isn’t our first foray into free agency with Carlos. We had a similar situation … last offseason when we had an interest in bringing him back and were able to work it out then, as well. We’ll see how the market unfolds. He’s coming from a much better position, which we all benefited from over the course of the ’21 season.

Quote #2: “He met (his longstanding) potential, and now obviously he has the benefit of exploring his free-agent options.”

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by maloney.adam

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Hahn’s comments Friday focused on internal options improving, be it a healthy Robert, younger players like Sheets and Vaughn improving, Kopech transitioning into the rotation, and Crochet into Kopech’s 2021 role.

If the off-season acquisitions boil down to

• Leury ($8M/2 years)
• Tepera or equivalent ($9M/2years)
• Josh Harrison/Jose Iglesias type at 2B ($5M/1yr + team option or $1M Buyout)
• Danny Duffy/Michael Wacha/Michael Pineda SP (1-2 years /$7-8M AAV)
• Kimbrel for a prospect, bench and or low leverage bullpen piece or swingman

Will folks here be satisfied? Because this seems like what will likely occur based on their current payroll commitments.

Hahn said “his team was on the floor” after Hendricks, and has since added $19M, 10-15% of payroll, on Lance Lynn for 2022 (assuming Kimbrel’s $16M is gone). The Sox also have significant payroll bumps due for the Core the next two seasons.

The only time I can think of where the white Sox thought they were competitive and had such a limited offseason was going into 2013, where I think they might have basically added Keppinger and a couple minor other bits? 

Im sure I won’t like it when they do it, but there will be some move, through trade or otherwise, to try to make a splash.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I gotta say, #2 on its own would make no sense to me. If they believed he was healthy - are they going to find any other 5 win pitchers on a 1 year, $18 million deal? Not likely. And with Keuchel being a guy we could readily drop from the rotation for at least part of the year, there would be plenty of need for 130 or 140 innings of his work next year. 

Number two would reflect both his track record of health and performance and skepticism that can be repeat said 5 win performance.  Number 1 was specific around the idea that they know for a fact his shoulder is fucked.  Obviously there is a lot overlap between the two.  But if you think he’s a 3.5 win pitcher next year if healthy and is a huge liability to help you come October, then yeah it’s very plausible there could be other guys they would prefer to allocate that $18.4M towards.  And I’m not suggesting those other guys would be cheaper, but given there’s one rotation spot open at most to round out the roster you can’t QO Rodon and add another starter.  It’s one or the other and maybe there is another free agent they really like.  Harold seems to think they’ll make a run at Scherzer and I could see Gausman being a guy they’re all over.  Both would be superior additions to Rodon if Jerry is willing to make the investment.

[tray]

One way to start filling  holes is to trade players like Vaughn, Kimbrel,  and Keuchel who have some trade value  but  have questionable utility for the 2022 roster..

 

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Hahn’s comments Friday focused on internal options improving, be it a healthy Robert, younger players like Sheets and Vaughn improving, Kopech transitioning into the rotation, and Crochet into Kopech’s 2021 role.

If the off-season acquisitions boil down to

• Leury ($8M/2 years)
• Tepera or equivalent ($9M/2years)
• Josh Harrison/Jose Iglesias type at 2B ($5M/1yr + team option or $1M Buyout)
• Danny Duffy/Michael Wacha/Michael Pineda SP (1-2 years /$7-8M AAV)
• Kimbrel for a prospect, bench and or low leverage bullpen piece or swingman

Will folks here be satisfied? Because this seems like what will likely occur based on their current payroll commitments.

Hahn said “his team was on the floor” after Hendricks, and has since added $19M, 10-15% of payroll, on Lance Lynn for 2022 (assuming Kimbrel’s $16M is gone). The Sox also have significant payroll bumps due for the Core the next two seasons.

There is zero chance that’s our offseason…none whatsoever.  $180M is the threshold to have a top 10 payroll and that’s where Jerry generally plays when competing.  If you want to be conservative, go with a $170M payroll then.  Either way, you are taking Hahn’s lawyer speak way too seriously as he’s not going to come out and devalue his young players by saying “we desperate need to upgrade x position”.

[South Side Hit Men]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

That team wouldn’t win the AL Central, but good news is that’s about the worst possible scenario for the offseason

I don’t agree with that. Detroit may possibly be the only other team that has a legitimate chance finishing over .500, depending on whether they step up and bring in Correa or other significant pieces. Cleveland isn’t spending anything, Minnesota is looking to sell including Buxton, Royals will add a couple of old cheap guys, but they aren’t going anywhere.

Rick set the expectations Friday with his focus on internal growth. Based on the already record high payroll ($145m without Kimbrel), I just don’t expect a major acquisition FA wise. Lynn’s extension was a major acquisition. 

Perhaps we will see a creative trade, perhaps Eloy, similar to what they did to acquire Lynn, or sign a creative $ deal like what they did for Hendriks, or somehow pull a Houdini and can dump Keuchel.

[Sarava]

5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I don’t agree with that. Detroit may possibly be the only other team that has a legitimate chance finishing over .500, depending on whether they step up and bring in Correa or other significant pieces. Cleveland isn’t spending anything, Minnesota is looking to sell including Buxton, Royals will add a couple of old cheap guys, but they aren’t going anywhere.

Rick set the expectations Friday with his focus on internal growth. Based on the already record high payroll ($145m without Kimbrel), I just don’t expect a major acquisition FA wise. Lynn’s extension was a major acquisition. 

Perhaps we will see a creative trade, perhaps Eloy, similar to what they did to acquire Lynn, or sign a creative $ deal like what they did for Hendriks, or somehow pull a Houdini and can dump Keuchel.

Ooh, selling low on Eloy would piss me off. Let's see what the guy can do healthy.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Number two would reflect both his track record of health and performance and skepticism that can be repeat said 5 win performance.  Number 1 was specific around the idea that they know for a fact his shoulder is fucked.  Obviously there is a lot overlap between the two.  But if you think he’s a 3.5 win pitcher next year if healthy and is a huge liability to help you come October, then yeah it’s very plausible there could be other guys they would prefer to allocate that $18.4M towards.  And I’m not suggesting those other guys would be cheaper, but given there’s one rotation spot open at most to round out the roster you can’t QO Rodon and add another starter.  It’s one or the other and maybe there is another free agent they really like.  Harold seems to think they’ll make a run at Scherzer and I could see Gausman being a guy they’re all over.  Both would be superior additions to Rodon if Jerry is willing to make the investment.

If you only thought you were getting 130 innings from him again - Kopech (with innings saved by Rodon being there), Cease, Giolito, and Lynn could still be a solid playoff rotation.

But on other guys I can’t see either Gausman or Scherzer only getting $18 million, can you? Even if they could move Kimbrel, between having to add to the bench and 2b and RF, along with a starting pitcher at $25 million or more, that’s a lot of needs to cover with like $45 million (which would put them at the $180 million you talked about previously).

[South Side Hit Men]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

There is zero chance that’s our offseason…none whatsoever.  $180M is the threshold to have a top 10 payroll and that’s where Jerry generally plays when competing.  If you want to be conservative, go with a $170M payroll then.  Either way, you are taking Hahn’s lawyer speak way too seriously as he’s not going to come out and devalue his young players by saying “we desperate need to upgrade x position”.

Not sure how you state that, when the upper $120s is the all time high, and $165 is where they are at with their current roster including likely arbitration awards.

Sox have spent based on revenue higher when available, but don’t see a scenario where revenue will increase 50% to pay for a 50% increase in payroll. Hahn has spent the money on Keuchel, Lynn, Grandal and Abreu for 2022, and also  has Kimbrel until he can move him.

They currently have the 6th highest 2022 payroll on Cot’s Contracts. If they can dump Kimbrel, it will pay for the four FA type acquisitions listed and still keep them 6th until everything else shakes out. I don’t see more than a few high end teams spending on the top free agents, top acquisitions will be concentrated among the usual suspects. At least a 1/3 of MLB will do absolutely nothing, 1/3 will tread water, and the Sox are already 6th among teams actually attempting to win something.

[Timmy U]

Doesn’t surprise me, but I will agree that Rodon is hard to value going forward. Personally, $18.4 million for 133 innings is better than $16 million for like 70, but what do I know?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

If you only thought you were getting 130 innings from him again - Kopech (with innings saved by Rodon being there), Cease, Giolito, and Lynn could still be a solid playoff rotation.

But on other guys I can’t see either Gausman or Scherzer only getting $18 million, can you? Even if they could move Kimbrel, between having to add to the bench and 2b and RF, along with a starting pitcher at $25 million or more, that’s a lot of needs to cover with like $45 million (which would put them at the $180 million you talked about previously).

I’m not suggesting Gausman or Scherzer will get $18M, they’ll likely get much closer to $30M.  But the Sox may have much more confidence in them to deliver TOR production over the course of the 2022 season and be actual weapons come the playoffs.  And paying for one of them may require concessions elsewhere…you’re right about that.  It could still be worth it though, especially if your internal projections are low on Rodon next year.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Doesn’t surprise me, but I will agree that Rodon is hard to value going forward. Personally, $18.4 million for 133 innings is better than $16 million for like 70, but what do I know?

They aren’t keeping Kimbrel, he will be moved.

[caulfield12]

This whole thing is predicated on the White Sox being able to add one of about (at best) five starting pitchers who will likely be even more expensive than $20+ million.

OR 2)  the usual suspect Tier B/C dumpster diving for another veteran FA that ended up with us signing Eaton on the position player side.

 

Of course, internal improvements and health from all the young players (and playing time, too) would be great.  But it's not really going to drive a bunch of people on the fence and go out and put down deposits for White Sox season tickets.

Kimbrel (instead of homegrown Carlos Rodon) temporarily on the payroll certainly won't.

 

Of course, there's always the old Kenny Williams/Riverboat Gambler....adjustments/retooling on the fly in June/July philosophy.

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From my perspective, there are three options for why the Sox didn’t extend a QO to Rodon:

1. The Sox are concerned about his medicals and ability to stay healthy next year
2. The Sox have other pitching targets they like better and would rather invest in
3. The budget is going to be limited and they need to spread that $18.4M around

The first two would be very acceptable reasons to pass on a QO, whereas option three would be highly problematic for obvious reasons.  Let me clear, if the Sox go into the season with Kopech & Keuchel as their #4 & #5 starters, then Jerry & the front office should be roasted for passing on the QO here.  The Sox have to add another high-end starter to the mix, even if that means dumping Dallas at 50 cents on the dollar or forcing him into a long relief role to start the year.  For now, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s some combo of options 1 & 2 that drove the decision here.

This is where I am too.  The announcement stung a little as I love Rodon, but I understand it too.  I’m choosing to be rational until I see how things play out.   

[caulfield12]

Why would they allow Carlos Rodon to throw 99.7 mph in October if they were legitimately concerned about his shoulder?

Or they already knew they were going to let him go without the QO well before the playoffs, and knew that there was almost no (organizational) risk on that low salary with no future financial commitment?

Basically, that the player/agent knew the only way for him to get a decent deal was to demonstrate a return to peak velocity...?  Because he didn't (seemingly) throw a ton of sliders in those 2 1/3 IP, which would be one obvious sign/indication of an injury...?

Edited November 8, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Not sure how you state that, when the upper $120s is the all time high, and $165 is where they are at with their current roster including likely arbitration awards.

Sox have spent based on revenue higher when available, but don’t see a scenario where revenue will increase 50% to pay for a 50% increase in payroll. Hahn has spent the money on Keuchel, Lynn, Grandal and Abreu for 2022, and also  has Kimbrel until he can move him.

They currently have the 6th highest 2022 payroll on Cot’s Contracts. If they can dump Kimbrel, it will pay for the four FA type acquisitions listed and still keep them 6th until everything else shakes out. I don’t see more than a few high end teams spending on the top free agents, top acquisitions will be concentrated among the usual suspects. At least a 1/3 of MLB will do absolutely nothing, 1/3 will tread water, and the Sox are already 6th among teams actually attempting to win something.

Citing payrolls before anything has happened means nothing.  And the Sox finished with a $140M+ payroll last year I believe and that’s with COVID impacted gate revenue greatly reducing their opening day budget.  Going up to $170M would be about a 20% increase and that’s off a deflated base.  Zero doubt in my mind they don’t hit that figure.  Honestly, I think $180M is a very realistic target, but gun to head I’m going with $170M.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Chicago White Sox