Sox give no qualifying offers

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Chimpton said:

If the Sox were offering $18.5 million for a FA pitcher (not called Rodon) but with a similar profile would SoxTalk be excited at the prospect? It would be and is a big gamble, he had a career best season last year and there is the potential issue of fitness. Granted he will probably go somewhere else and win a Cy Young award just to annoy everyone on here. but even if he were to repeat last season (his best ever but still no use in October due to fatigue) would that be worth $18.5 million?

Ironically, if you could find another potential 5 win pitcher with Rodon’s profile this year who was available for 1/$18, I would say that’s a perfect fit for the rotation. The White Sox will need to get Kopech some innings but not too many, and the White Sox will probably pitch Keuchel and Lopez some but won’t want to overexpose them. And someone will get hurt at some point. That means 100 to 150 dominant innings would be a great use of those funds, and if you got more than that you’d probably be cautious and try to set the guy up for the playoffs. 

If they sign a scrap heap guy for depth for $5 million, and he’s putting up an ERA of Keuchel, then there’s a big temptation to push Lynn, Cease, Giolito, and Kopech even harder during the regular season, especially if the division is closer. If there’s a 3 or 4 game lead in August and Lopez, Keuchel and signee are all iffy, would they use Mr Offday a couple times as the 5th starter to try to widen their lead?

With him, you open April with your top 5 guys, or maybe even Kopech in the bullpen, and you begin swapping guys out even within the first few weeks. 

The only good scenario here is they find a Rodon type for $5 million who breaks out with Katz, but can lightning strike twice? Best chance, maybe Lopez?

[Kyyle23]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ironically, if you could find another potential 5 win pitcher with Rodon’s profile this year who was available for 1/$18, I would say that’s a perfect fit for the rotation. The White Sox will need to get Kopech some innings but not too many, and the White Sox will probably pitch Keuchel and Lopez some but won’t want to overexpose them. And someone will get hurt at some point. That means 100 to 150 dominant innings would be a great use of those funds, and if you got more than that you’d probably be cautious and try to set the guy up for the playoffs. 

If they sign a scrap heap guy for depth for $5 million, and he’s putting up an ERA of Keuchel, then there’s a big temptation to push Lynn, Cease, Giolito, and Kopech even harder during the regular season, especially if the division is closer. If there’s a 3 or 4 game lead in August and Lopez, Keuchel and signee are all iffy, would they use Mr Offday a couple times as the 5th starter to try to widen their lead?

With him, you open April with your top 5 guys, or maybe even Kopech in the bullpen, and you begin swapping guys out even within the first few weeks. 

The only good scenario here is they find a Rodon type for $5 million who breaks out with Katz, but can lightning strike twice? Best chance, maybe Lopez?

In the real world, anyone with Rodons profile of injury history would have you screaming from the highest mountain that this was wasted money from the minute the ink dried, full stop.  

[Jack Parkman]

They must know his shoulder is jazzed. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

In the real world, anyone with Rodons profile of injury history would have you screaming from the highest mountain that this was wasted money from the minute the ink dried, full stop.  

Can’t address the point so you make it personal. If that’s all you’re going to do the whole offseason then just ignore me, I don’t do that garbage to you.

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Can’t address the point so you make it personal. If that’s all you’re going to do the whole offseason then just ignore me, I don’t do that garbage to you.

Lmao the hell you dont.  

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Lmao the hell you dont.  

Then report me for it. Please. 

[Kyyle23]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Then report me for it. Please. 

No let's talk about this, I'm game.  This you?

You sure don't look confident in his health over his career.   Dylan Axelrod.  

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

To those who think the sox could sign scherzer. 

Sox have 14 guys under contract. They're at 156 million.

Let's say they swap kimbrel and eat zero money (seems unlikely but we'll assume)

They're now at 140. Scherzer would out them around 175. 

We'll say 4 million (but may be more given the new cba) for the 5 young guys. 

179, roster is at 19. They still need a 2nd baseman and at least 1 BP arm. 15 million combined would mean some bad guys there, but let's say 15. 194

Then they round out the last 4-5 guys on the roster with what? I'm assuming they role with vaughn/sheets in the of here too,

After the very real fact that Kimbrel was not going to make this team good enough to win anything in 2021, everything you just posted here was my second reason for hating that trade.

Anyone could have seen this coming, if you took a look at the roster and the salary structure.

 

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Feels like we really only have two years of clear window remaining unless we get new deca billionaire ownership.

It sure does, doesn't it? Squandering assets to not get good enough to win anything shortens windows.

They've done this before: in 2014, the (snicker) "brain trust" in the FO took a look at their awesome 73 win team and said to themselves, "all this roster needs is Jeff Samardzija." And so, they stupidly traded a cumulative 24 years of control over 4 prospects for 1 year of mediocrity.

In 2016, those same geniuses tool a look at a shitty roster/shitty manager that was starting their fall out of contention and said, "all this roster needs is James Shields!" I forgot what they gave up, but I'm sure it was nothing. After all, its "Big Game" James, amirite? 

 

This FO hasn't learned anything, and they never will. I suspect that 2022 will be somewhat disappointing, because they've fucked their financial and roster flexibility through some of the short-sighted choices they've made. By 2023, it'll be one last season before it'll be Giolito's turn to leave Chicago, and then who knows what will happen then?

Enjoy this "multiple championships" window, Sox fans.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

No let's talk about this, I'm game.  This you?

You sure don't look confident in his health over his career there.  

Nope. I was wrong. He proved me wrong. Kudos to Katz and the Front office on that call. Made this team substantially better. You can do the Lynn trade, the Kimbrel trade if you want other  recent examples of me being wrong. Where did I personally attack you? Disagree with me on a baseball point if you want. Tell me I’m being wrong again because Lopez will be this years breakout guy or Keuchel will have a comeback year or Kopech can throw enough innings. There are plenty of baseball reasons I could be wrong. But drop the personal attacks.

[Kyyle23]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Nope. I was wrong. He proved me wrong. Kudos to Katz and the Front office on that call. Made this team substantially better. You can do the Lynn trade, the Kimbrel trade if you want other  recent examples of me being wrong. Where did I personally attack you? Disagree with me on a baseball point if you want. Tell me I’m being wrong again because Lopez will be this years breakout guy or Keuchel will have a comeback year or Kopech can throw enough innings. There are plenty of baseball reasons I could be wrong. But drop the personal attacks.

Saying you would be screaming from the top of a mountain isn't a personal attack, untwist yourself from the pretzel you have put yourself in.   For someone who loves to correct everyone every chance he gets, you certainly don't like that shit when it happens to you 

[maloney.adam]

This team is toast! We should just blow this team up. The sky is falling! Ahhhhh! 

[35thstreetswarm]

This outcome squares with the public statements at season-end, especially from TLR, who was all but rooting against Carlos coming out of his various bullpen sessions.  They had moved on already.

[ChiSox59]

16 hours ago, fathom said:

I might be the only one happy they didn’t QO Rodon. I don’t trust him at all to remain healthy into a postseason series.

I am not upset by it.  Chances Rodon turns in a similar campaign to 2021 in 22 are very low.  Chances he throws above 100 innings is very low.  Not risking $18.3M on that.  

[ChiSox59]

16 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This team is more expensive and significantly worse today than they were at the end of the season. This is a tough performance to replace without spending considerably more. 

That is generally what happens when you see pay raises across the board, some of the team leaving via FA and no FA have signed yet.  Literally most competitive clubs are in the exact same situation as we sit a week after the WS ended. 

1st half Rodon is a huge loss. 2nd half Rodon isn't.  We all know which half we're more likely to get moving forward.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

8 hours ago, soulfly said:

Cool, can't wait to see Kopech throw like 60 innings next year and still need another starter anyways.  Unless they are planning on Lopez and Kopech splitting starts.

Kopech is 26, healthy and strong as a bull. He's also going to have an entire off season to train. There is no reason he can't throw 150 innings next year.  

[ChiSox59]

15 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The fact that the Sox wouldn't even risk Rodon accepting for 18 million, even though QO's are almost always worth extending given 1 year deals have less risk, it's absolutely hilarious anyone thinks they're going to go after Scherzer.

I thought Kimbrel was supposed to signify this team was going to open the pocket books. Rodon was a no-brainer when it came to extending a QO. Worst case he signs on and he's a 5th-6th starter next season giving you 120-150 good innings. I'll argue all day that Rodon has more value than Kimbrel at this point in time too, and they cost nearly the same.

Ray - you have to consider the fact that no one is more in tune with Carlos arm and shoulder than the Sox.  If he's simply not going to be able to give you a full season's workload, or heck, even 75% of what he gave you in 21, its not worth $18.3M.  I have zero issue with the Sox reallocating those funds.  That $18M could be as much at 75% of what we have to spend.  Extending the QO to Rodon was a big risk.  Things would need to go swimmingly to end up in the green on that one. 

[Tony]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Ironically, if you could find another potential 5 win pitcher with Rodon’s profile this year who was available for 1/$18, I would say that’s a perfect fit for the rotation. The White Sox will need to get Kopech some innings but not too many, and the White Sox will probably pitch Keuchel and Lopez some but won’t want to overexpose them. And someone will get hurt at some point. That means 100 to 150 dominant innings would be a great use of those funds, and if you got more than that you’d probably be cautious and try to set the guy up for the playoffs. 

If they sign a scrap heap guy for depth for $5 million, and he’s putting up an ERA of Keuchel, then there’s a big temptation to push Lynn, Cease, Giolito, and Kopech even harder during the regular season, especially if the division is closer. If there’s a 3 or 4 game lead in August and Lopez, Keuchel and signee are all iffy, would they use Mr Offday a couple times as the 5th starter to try to widen their lead?

With him, you open April with your top 5 guys, or maybe even Kopech in the bullpen, and you begin swapping guys out even within the first few weeks. 

The only good scenario here is they find a Rodon type for $5 million who breaks out with Katz, but can lightning strike twice? Best chance, maybe Lopez?

So to be clear here...You're either much smarter than the White Sox, or......they have a reason for not extending the qualifying offer and seem perfectly fine being done with Rodon. You believe the Sox are being cheap, and it has nothing to do with their faith in Rodon performing in the future at a level they are comfortable with. 

Do I have that right? 

[hogan873]

I'm torn on the Sox not offering Rodon the QO.  I wonder if there was any speculation on whether he would accept.  My gut says they thought he might accept and therefore tie up $18MM in payroll.  That's a huge jump from the $3MM he got for 2021, so I can understand the reluctance to give him 6X that without still knowing if he'd be healthy enough to give the team what they need.  Maybe they still want to offer him a multi-year deal that would give him more money overall but less stress on the budget.  I think, however, he signs elsewhere on a 2 or 3 year deal for more than the Sox would be willing to pay.

When he does sign somewhere, with the Sox or not, we can be sure of one thing: Some of us will be okay, some will want to punch Hahn in the face, and some of us will be meh about it.

[Snopek]

15 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Here's the thing that most aren't talking about... Carlos Rodon probably won't give you 2021 Carlos Rodon production in 2022.  Even if they brought him back, they probably aren't getting that level of production again.

What are you basing this on?

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

I'm torn on the Sox not offering Rodon the QO.  I wonder if there was any speculation on whether he would accept.  My gut says they thought he might accept and therefore tie up $18MM in payroll.  That's a huge jump from the $3MM he got for 2021, so I can understand the reluctance to give him 6X that without still knowing if he'd be healthy enough to give the team what they need.  Maybe they still want to offer him a multi-year deal that would give him more money overall but less stress on the budget.  I think, however, he signs elsewhere on a 2 or 3 year deal for more than the Sox would be willing to pay.

When he does sign somewhere, with the Sox or not, we can be sure of one thing: Some of us will be okay, some will want to punch Hahn in the face, and some of us will be meh about it.

Pending a CBA which could change things, my best guess is he signs somewhere for 1 year and about $20 million. We have seen a bunch of guys wind up with deals like that - Semien comes to mind recently. If he gets a lot less than that then yeah teams are thinking there’s a deeper medical issue beyond just innings increasing and fatigue. Unless they do an opt out, I struggle to see Boras going for a 2 or 3 year deal. If he has another strong season and throws 160 innings next year building on this years work load, then that seems to set him up to cash in massively, and a 2 or 3 year deal would prevent that.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Snopek said:

What are you basing this on?

IP by year.

139.1

165

69.1

120.2

34.2

7.2

132.2

 

FIP by year

3.87

4.01

4.69

4.95

3.62

4.89

2.65

If you spend money QO money on Carlos Rodon, you are paying him for both a career performance AND to be able to pitch 30 starts.  He has literally never pitched 30 times in one season, ever.  The closest he came was 2016.  This year he made it out there 24 times.  His history should absolutely be indicative of his expectations.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

IP by year.

139.1

165

69.1

120.2

34.2

7.2

132.2

 

FIP by year

3.87

4.01

4.69

4.95

3.62

4.89

2.65

If you spend money QO money on Carlos Rodon, you are paying him for both a career performance AND to be able to pitch 30 starts.  He has literally never pitched 30 times in one season, ever.  The closest he came was 2016.  This year he made it out there 24 times.  His history should absolutely be indicative of his expectations.

But he was a 4.9 fWAR pitcher this year. Given the caveats, if I ask what an $18 million pitcher is to that algorithm, it’s about 2.3 wins. So you aren’t betting on him for 30 starts with the QO, if he performed like this year, he would be quite a solid acquisition at 20 starts.

[bighurt574]

29 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Ray - you have to consider the fact that no one is more in tune with Carlos arm and shoulder than the Sox.  If he's simply not going to be able to give you a full season's workload, or heck, even 75% of what he gave you in 21, its not worth $18.3M.  I have zero issue with the Sox reallocating those funds.  That $18M could be as much at 75% of what we have to spend.  Extending the QO to Rodon was a big risk.  Things would need to go swimmingly to end up in the green on that one. 

 

Meh, even if he gets you 3 WAR (vs. 5 WAR this past year), it's worth the money, which isn't a crazy bet.  

But yeah, the Sox must not feel too good about his arm.  

[southsider2k5]

Just now, bighurt574 said:

 

Meh, even if he gets you 3 WAR (vs. 5 WAR this past year), it's worth the money, which isn't a crazy bet.  

But yeah, the Sox must not feel too good about his arm.  

Which he has done once in 7 years.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

37 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Ray - you have to consider the fact that no one is more in tune with Carlos arm and shoulder than the Sox.  If he's simply not going to be able to give you a full season's workload, or heck, even 75% of what he gave you in 21, its not worth $18.3M.  I have zero issue with the Sox reallocating those funds.  That $18M could be as much at 75% of what we have to spend.  Extending the QO to Rodon was a big risk.  Things would need to go swimmingly to end up in the green on that one. 

If $18 million is 75% of what this team has to spend then that's the entire issue.