Sox give no qualifying offers

[Snopek]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

IP by year.

139.1

165

69.1

120.2

34.2

7.2

132.2

 

FIP by year

3.87

4.01

4.69

4.95

3.62

4.89

2.65

If you spend money QO money on Carlos Rodon, you are paying him for both a career performance AND to be able to pitch 30 starts.  He has literally never pitched 30 times in one season, ever.  The closest he came was 2016.  This year he made it out there 24 times.  His history should absolutely be indicative of his expectations.

Oh yeah, for sure. I thought you were talking only about actual performance, as in his effectiveness in the starts he did make was a fluke. Because I see no reason why he can't pitch as effectively next year as he did this year. But yeah, when factoring in durability/reliability/availability, the odds of a repeat season are clearly lowered.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Which he has done once in 7 years.

…last year, after recovering from TJS, changing his offseason training program with the team (credit to RaBBit for calling that) and changing his pitching approach (varying FB velocity, throwing a changeup). There’s good reasons to suspect that 2021 could represent a breakout year for that player.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

…last year, after recovering from TJS, changing his offseason training program with the team (credit to RaBBit for calling that) and changing his pitching approach (varying FB velocity, throwing a changeup). There’s good reasons to suspect that 2021 could represent a breakout year for that player.

And seven years of injury history is a better reason to believe it won't.

[ChiSox59]

14 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

The only way that the Rodon QO decision wasn't the dumbest decision the White Sox FO has made in years is if Rodon needs offseason surgery.

Orrrrrr they think he's highly likely to accept because his arm isn't healthy, even if there isn't structural damage.  No one knows his medicals better than the Sox.  This is one I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on.  Rodon wasn't good in the 2nd half and didn't pitch over 5 innings after his first start following the ASG.  That version of him is a terrible gamble for $18.3M. 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Orrrrrr they think he's highly likely to accept because his arm isn't healthy, even if there isn't structural damage.  No one knows his medicals better than the Sox.  This is one I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on.  Rodon wasn't good in the 2nd half and didn't pitch over 5 innings after his first start following the ASG.  That version of him is a terrible gamble for $18.3M. 

A fundamental question - would you expect anything more than that from a guy recovering from TJS and the 2020 season nuttiness, after they were pushed for a lot of innings in the first half?

[Snopek]

It's pretty obvious to me that they're gonna have Kimbrel fill Rodon's spot in the rotation.

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Snopek said:

It's pretty obvious to me that they're gonna have Kimbrel fill Rodon's spot in the rotation.

I thought he was going to be our next second baseman.

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A fundamental question - would you expect anything more than that from a guy recovering from TJS and the 2020 season nuttiness, after they were pushed for a lot of innings in the first half?

Ok so 2021 would be year 2 coming off TJS so I think we can stop saying he was still recovering like it just happened 

[Snopek]

1 minute ago, hi8is said:

I thought he was going to be our next second baseman.

He should be able to do both if Keuchel lets him borrow his golden mitt. 

[maloney.adam]

1 minute ago, Snopek said:

He should be able to do both if Keuchel lets him borrow his golden mitt. 

Are you related to Kopech?

Edited November 8, 2021 by maloney.adam

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Ok so 2021 would be year 2 coming off TJS so I think we can stop saying he was still recovering like it just happened 

No but he also didn’t get to build up his arm at all in 2020 with how that year went.

What would his year have looked like without this permanent damage people are suspecting? Do you think he could have thrown 175 innings without it? 130 seems like a really big number for him and a real impressive success based on where things started and I struggle to understand people thinking that is a red flag.

[Snopek]

6 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Are you related to Kopech?

If so, I've done a really poor job exploiting him for his fame.

[Kyyle23]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No but he also didn’t get to build up his arm at all in 2020 with how that year went.

What would his year have looked like without this permanent damage people are suspecting? Do you think he could have thrown 175 innings without it? 130 seems like a really big number for him and a real impressive success based on where things started and I struggle to understand people thinking that is a red flag.

It's very interesting how much you are discounting the second half of 2021 here.  But hey when you have to keep with the "Sox are so cheap about everything" mantra I guess this is what we get 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

It's very interesting how much you are discounting the second half of 2021 here.  But hey when you have to keep with the "Sox are so cheap about everything" mantra I guess this is what we get 

I haven’t called them cheap. Im not a fan of this decision, but they spent $16 million 2 days ago and are lined up with a $150 million+ payroll already.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

It's very interesting how much you are discounting the second half of 2021 here.  But hey when you have to keep with the "Sox are so cheap about everything" mantra I guess this is what we get 

But... in a way they are?

Again, Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod and etc were all extended QO's. I noted earlier if Carlos has off-season surgery I would 100% understand. If he doesn't, he signs somewhere, and then passes his physical then this is a horrible move. It's really that simple.

Could he fail his physical or have surgery? Sure. Do the Sox deserve the benefit of the doubt that they're not being cheap? Absolutely not.

All Carlos costs was money. Instead the Sox will probably end up trading more assets for "affordable" arms like they did with Lynn. This team should be pushing 190+ million dollar payroll, but we know that won't happen. How is that not frustrating? If they really trade Kimbrel, they're at about 140 now. Carlos puts them at 158. They could still sign a 2B and another SP/RP if they acted like an actual heart-of-the-contention window organization.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Kyyle23]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

But... they are?

Again, Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod and etc were all extended QO's. I noted earlier if Carlos has off-season surgery I would 100% understand. If he doesn't, he signs somewhere, and then passes his physical then this is a horrible move. It's really that simple.

Could he fail his physical or have surgery? Sure. Do the Sox deserve the benefit of the doubt that they're not being cheap? Absolutely not.

All Carlos costs was money. Instead the Sox will probably end up trading more assets for "affordable" arms like they did with Lynn. This team should be pushing 190+ million dollar payroll, but we know that won't happen. How is that not frustrating? If they really trade Kimbrel, they're at about 140 now. Carlos puts them at 158. They could still sign a 2B and another SP/RP if they acted like an actual heart-of-the-contention window organization.

We have no idea what the case is yet, no moves have been made at all, so I'm not really going to call this the worst move that was never made.  much like last year they can still come back to the table and agree on something that satisfied both parties instead of "well you just blew 18M on an arm that fell apart(again)."

believe me, I'm not against a Rodon return but I wouldn't want it at the QO right now considering his spiral after the break and multiple starts where his MPH fell off a cliff mid game 

 

[NWINFan]

I agree with the Rodon decision, but right now this starting rotation doesn't look all that good.

[maloney.adam]

1 minute ago, NWINFan said:

I agree with the Rodon decision, but right now this starting rotation doesn't look all that good.

It’s not that bad as it appears. If Keuchel has a bounce back year, which he has done so in the past and Cease takes another step forward than we’re one of the best rotations in the league. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

It’s not that bad as it appears. If Keuchel has a bounce back year, which he has done so in the past and Cease takes another step forward than we’re one of the best rotations in the league. 

I think Keuchel is what he is at this point. A soft 60-game schedule makes his 2020 season look great.

[Kyyle23]

The rotation definitely looks weaker right now and imo it should not be weighed including Keuchel.  They need to move him and upgrade the rotation without him 

[Jerksticks]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No but he also didn’t get to build up his arm at all in 2020 with how that year went.

What would his year have looked like without this permanent damage people are suspecting? Do you think he could have thrown 175 innings without it? 130 seems like a really big number for him and a real impressive success based on where things started and I struggle to understand people thinking that is a red flag.

I think it’s an amazing success too and Carlos was a huge part of the Sox running away with the division by the ASB.  
 

The guy didn’t pitch in the 2nd half though.  I thought they were just limiting his innings too,  but now I’m not so sure.  Maybe that shoulder was barking like crazy.  I don’t know how to know.  
 

Maybe they could send Keuchel and Burger to a team like Texas and then sign Rodon?  I’d actually like that.  Los was the man this year while he had it.  Unstoppable force.  

[Snopek]

Yeah, the "if good thing happens, team will be fine" type statements always feel too much like crossing your fingers and hoping for the best. No reason for a team that considers itself a title contender to go into next season hanging hopes on a Keuchel bounce back. It could happen, sure, but getting anything more than they got from him this past season should be considered a bonus. 

[chw42]

9 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I think Keuchel is what he is at this point. A soft 60-game schedule makes his 2020 season look great.

Yeah, you can easily find an 11 start period last year where he was pretty good. In fact, he had an 11 start stretch where he had a 3.2 ERA from late April to to mid June. Sox will be lucky to get a 4.5 ERA out of him next year. 

[Colome's Hat]

8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I think Keuchel is what he is at this point. A soft 60-game schedule makes his 2020 season look great.

He had a decent first half.  Really, the issues started in August when he couldn't get teh ball over the plate.  If we get the guy from the first half, we will be fine.  I also don't necessarily think this means Rodon is gone.  The market value for Rodon is really unknown.  But I think they didn't want to take the risk that he would take the $18 million, which I think is a safe bet.  I can totally see them brinigng him back at $10 million with an option and a load of incentives.  Due to his second half, he's likely going to have to take a prove it deal anyways.  I also don't think this means they are being cheap either. If you can spend $24 million this off season, why waste $18 million on one player when you have a really good rotation as it is.

[Chisoxfn]

No - it is a bad thing because the Sox consistently waste money on not good players in FA (thinking more of the Eaton type of signings).  In this case - you aren't doing anything to mortgage the future, you are literally buying an expensive lottery ticket asking him to be something close to what he was this past season. If he does that - he is worth $18M no problem.  And I don't doubt Rodon's stuff. 

There are some guys you debate whether they have the chips to be elite - Rodon is elite as long as he can get on that mound.  He is the guy we all thought he could be and showed it.  Now whether he puts in the work etc, I don't know. Only reason you don't spend $18M is if you think his arm will fall off or if you think you can work out a LT deal in future.  Outside of that - spend the $18M and hope it works out and if it doesn't, you move on next year.  They aren't going to find anyone at that price point who can help the rotation more than a healthy Rodon could.  

And I don't think the reason the Sox didn't do it is because they think he is currently hurt - I think he is healthy.