Kimbrel option expected to be exercised

[Dick Allen]

31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly?  Why did he suddenly suck?  You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

 

31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly?  Why did he suddenly suck?  You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

Keith Law wrote his velocity and command were down. He assumed he would be bought out and thought Kimbrel could get 1 year $10 million on the open market. if that is for giving up nothing,  how do the Sox get something for 1 year $16 million? For whatever reason, he was pretty bad with the White Sox. i'd rather they spend that money on a cu\uple of pitchers, or a really good 2B or RF. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

 

Keith Law wrote his velocity and command were down. He assumed he would be bought out and thought Kimbrel could get 1 year $10 million on the open market. if that is for giving up nothing,  how do the Sox get something for 1 year $16 million? For whatever reason, he was pretty bad with the White Sox. i'd rather they spend that money on a cu\uple of pitchers, or a really good 2B or RF. 

Dude you have to read that rant before this. Keith Law is not a smart baseball person, only Williams and Hahn’s people are. You aren’t allowed to use the opinion of anyone else.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How in the fuck am I using that as a defense?  I’m asking you guys who say he now “sucks” with full conviction what is the driver was for his sudden fall off.  You’re pointing to velocity, but that’s a symptom of a broader problem and not the root cause.  Did he get injured in June or July?  If so, is there reason to think he’ll be healthy again and regain his 1st half form?  Was it something mechanical that can be addressed?  Or perhaps he simply wore out from a ~45 inning increase vs. 2020.  See, the difference between GMs and people like you and Parkman is they will ask these questions, discuss with their pro scouting and analytics staffs, and make an informed go-forward projection for Kimbrel that is based on data, logic, & reason.  And yes, people should be cautious about Craig given his bad two months could be the start of a trend, but they should also realize they could mean nothing and have zero predictive value.  Baseball people a lot smarter than me & you and far less emotional than half of Soxtalk feel there is a market for Kimbrel.  Obviously they could be wrong, but it’s laughable to think they are doing this in hopes of saving a move that did not work out and jeopardize their offseason plans.  KW & Hahn have endless job security and if they survived the James Shields fiasco, losing Nick Madrigal for a Hall of Famer closer with a xwOBA in the 100th percentile at the time of the trade won’t cost them shit.  Right or wrong, picking up Kimbre’s option is 100% about extracting value and nothing more.

I think you've been overlooking the fact that Kimbrel has shown deteriorating skills for 4 years now, not just 1/2, and if any stretch of his performance was an aberration when compared to the past 4 years it was the first two months of 2021, not the last few. That year (2018) is when his stuff really took a dip from where it once was too and now he'll be 34 years old for the bulk for of the 2022 season.

I actually think there is some validity to the idea that the Sox are making a poor judgement here; the rest of the league thought they gave up more than Kimbrel was worth at the time of trade. If there's a market, it's not a market that is going to return a likely-impact-player in return IMO. I guess time will tell, but of all the areas of this organization that have grown in the past five years, the one I still have zero faith in is MLB scouting; it's amongst the worst in baseball and they always seem to be the last team to get the memo on guys who have lost the extra inch that once made them really good.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Kimbrel should bounce back, was fatigued down the stretch, coming off low workloads the previous two seasons.

That said, with Hendriks already here, hard to fit that salary with the existing veterans and fill other pressing needs without a substantial budget increase to the $200M range, which I just don't see happening. Believe they are strongly considering keeping him for next season, at least until the deadline vs. the sign and flip many here assume. Definitely worth more here than flipping him for some of the garbage mentioned here such as Cano. Dodgers can afford the cash and could use a closer. Lux would be a nice return if they are going to trade this offseason.

Rodon is the more important piece, if healthy (instead of merely fatigued). They have a better handle on his health since we have little public information, so at least encouraged by what was reported this week that the team remains interested, reflecting on his health being OK. The COVID/CBA turmoil may work in the Sox favor, afraid the Dodgers will sign him as they have the money and willingness to overpay compared to the rest of MLB.

Look, if they keep Kimbrel (which I hope isn’t the case) and it prevents them from adding a SP or RF, then these guys should be ridiculed.  But hopefully this means Jerry is footing a pretty nice budget and holding Kimbrel for a couple months while the relief pitcher market thins out won’t be problematic for us.  Then QOing Rodon tomorrow would only reaffirm that point.

[SonofaRoache]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think you've been overlooking the fact that Kimbrel has shown deteriorating skills for 4 years now, not just 1/2, and if any stretch of his performance was an aberration when compared to the past 4 years it was the first two months of 2021, not the last few. That year (2018) is when his stuff really took a dip from where it once was too and now he'll be 34 years old for the bulk for of the 2022 season.

I actually think there is some validity to the idea that the Sox are making a poor judgement here; the rest of the league thought they gave up more than Kimbrel was worth at the time of trade. If there's a market, it's not a market that is going to return a likely-impact-player in return IMO. I guess time will tell, but of all the areas of this organization that have grown in the past five years, the one I still have zero faith in is MLB scouting; it's amongst the worst in baseball and they always seem to be the last team to get the memo on guys who have lost the extra inch that once made them really good.

Yeah Hahn can't spin that trade. It was bad all the way around. 16 million and Madrigal? 

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How in the fuck am I using that as a defense?  I’m asking you guys who say he now “sucks” with full conviction what is the driver was for his sudden fall off.  You’re pointing to velocity, but that’s a symptom of a broader problem and not the root cause.  Did he get injured in June or July?  If so, is there reason to think he’ll be healthy again and regain his 1st half form?  Was it something mechanical that can be addressed?  Or perhaps he simply wore out from a ~45 inning increase vs. 2020.  See, the difference between GMs and people like you and Parkman is they will ask these questions, discuss with their pro scouting and analytics staffs, and make an informed go-forward projection for Kimbrel that is based on data, logic, & reason.  And yes, people should be cautious about Craig given his bad two months could be the start of a trend, but they should also realize they could mean nothing and have zero predictive value.  Baseball people a lot smarter than me & you and far less emotional than half of Soxtalk feel there is a market for Kimbrel.  Obviously they could be wrong, but it’s laughable to think they are doing this in hopes of saving a move that did not work out and jeopardize their offseason plans.  KW & Hahn have endless job security and if they survived the James Shields fiasco, losing Nick Madrigal for a Hall of Famer closer with a xwOBA in the 100th percentile at the time of the trade won’t cost them shit.  Right or wrong, picking up Kimbre’s option is 100% about extracting value and nothing more.

Are those very smart baseball people the same ones who acquired him in the first place?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think you've been overlooking the fact that Kimbrel has shown deteriorating skills for 4 years now, not just 1/2, and if any stretch of his performance was an aberration when compared to the past 4 years it was the first two months of 2021, not the last few. That year (2018) is when his stuff really took a dip from where it once was too and now he'll be 34 years old for the bulk for of the 2022 season.

I actually think there is some validity to the idea that the Sox are making a poor judgement here; the rest of the league thought they gave up more than Kimbrel was worth at the time of trade. If there's a market, it's not a market that is going to return a likely-impact-player in return IMO. I guess time will tell, but of all the areas of this organization that have grown in the past five years, the one I still have zero faith in is MLB scouting; it's amongst the worst in baseball and they always seem to be the last team to get the memo on guys who have lost the extra inch that once made them really good.

People are 100% allowed to think the Sox are making a poor judgment here.  But if you want to say Kimbrel sucks, then provide some actual reason why we should expect August / September Kimbrel going forward vs. the April to July version.  My point is almost all the commentary on Craig is a bunch of bitching & whining about his performance with us and has little to no objective reasoning.  The Sox are capable of making mistakes (cough Tatis), but accusing them of trying to save face here is laughable.

Also, I fully disagree with the “deteriorating skills for four years” comment, but I’ve argued against this too many times.  Dude was beyond elite for the first few months of the 2021 season, so to act like he’s slowly been losing ability for a while now simply isn’t true.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, if they keep Kimbrel (which I hope isn’t the case) and it prevents them from adding a SP or RF, then these guys should be ridiculed.  But hopefully this means Jerry is footing a pretty nice budget and holding Kimbrel for a couple months while the relief pitcher market thins out won’t be problematic for us.  Then QOing Rodon tomorrow would only reaffirm that point.

Yeah, I don't see any reasonable argument to make to be spending 30+ million dollars on two relievers, regardless of an approved budget hike. The Sox aren't suddenly going to be spending over luxury tax, so the cost of Kimbrel absolutely impedes them from making much more valuable and important moves for the success of the team in 2022. At best, you're likely looking at a 180-185 million dollar payroll and that's 17% of their budget spent on two relievers when they need a SP, a RF, a 2B and another bullpen arm even with Kimbrel.

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People are 100% allowed to think the Sox are making a poor judgment here.  But if you want to say Kimbrel sucks, then provide some actual reason why we should expect August / September Kimbrel going forward vs. the April to July version.  My point is almost all the commentary on Craig is a bunch of bitching & whining about his performance with us and has little to no objective reasoning.  The Sox are capable of making mistakes (cough Tatis), but accusing them of trying to save face here is laughable.

Also, I fully disagree with the “deteriorating skills for four years” comment, but I’ve argued against this too many times.  Dude was beyond elite for the first few months of the 2021 season, so to act like he’s slowly been losing ability for a while now simply isn’t true.

I think he will pitch better in 2022 than he did with the Sox. I just don't think there is a chance in hell some team will take the contract, and give you value in return. I think they are far better off spending the money on other help. 

 

If the Sox needed a closer, would you be doing an Irish jig if the Sox picked up Kimbrel for $16 million and gave up a significant peice?  To me, this is just making a mistake,a bigger mistake. Every team makes mistakes. Compounding them when your window is open, closes said window a lot quicker.

Edited November 6, 2021 by Dick Allen

[soulfly]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Fwiw, counting the guys on the roster who will have to go through some sort of arbitration process and assuming that works like the last CBA, this puts the current 2022 White Sox payroll over $150 million. 

Big oof.  Trades are a comin'.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are those very smart baseball people the same ones who acquired him in the first place?

Yep, same GMs.  How come you aren’t taking shots at the front offices of the Dodgers & Rays who were also highly interested in him?  But hey, I remember you saying on July 31st that the closer with a 100th percentile xwOBA and HoF track record was certainly going to fall off over the next two months.

[Dick Allen]

The other thing is Kimbrel has been traded 3 times. Nick Madrigal might be the best player he was ever traded for. So it's not like he has brought back big pieces even in his prmie.

Edited November 6, 2021 by Dick Allen

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People are 100% allowed to think the Sox are making a poor judgment here.  But if you want to say Kimbrel sucks, then provide some actual reason why we should expect August / September Kimbrel going forward vs. the April to July version.  My point is almost all the commentary on Craig is a bunch of bitching & whining about his performance with us and has little to no objective reasoning.  The Sox are capable of making mistakes (cough Tatis), but accusing them of trying to save face here is laughable.

Also, I fully disagree with the “deteriorating skills for four years” comment, but I’ve argued against this too many times.  Dude was beyond elite for the first few months of the 2021 season, so to act like he’s slowly been losing ability for a while now simply isn’t true.

Kimbrel had FIP's under 1.93 his first five years in the big leagues.

Since then he's been good, but not that same dominant performer:

2.68
2.92
1.42
3.13
8.00
3.97
2.43

What is the one noticeable change during that stretch, walks and command. Since 2018, Kimbrel's pitches in thrown in the strike zone has plummeted - 44, 42.7, 47, 48 - his career average coming into 2018 was 52.7%. This has led to people making more contact in the zone against Kimbrel since 2018 in comparison to his career norms. This has also greatly impacted the strength and dominance of his fastball, which he has lost command with the most. Between 2010-2017, Kimbrel's fastball average roughly 10.35 runs above average per season, between 2018-2021 Kimbrel's fastball has averaged .75 runs above average per season.

Kimbrel has shown a lot of signs of not being the arm he once was. I know you keep pointing to the two months of dominance, but let's not forget that Kimbrel could have been had for next to nothing last off-season as the Cubs would have loved to off load that contract. Has his value really changed all that much because of 30 innings despite the trends above? I have my doubts. Only time will tell. Kimbrel isn't as bad as he was with the Sox, but his time with the Sox epitomize what he's become. Just another volatile reliever who can have good and bad stretches. He can't be relied upon to be a dominating force (like a Hendriks) at the back end of a winning teams bullpen imo.

Edit: and you know I'm not just piggybacking off this because of his poor time with the Sox. I was shouting about his deteriorating skills the day we acquired him. I've been watching this trend unfold for the past 4 years. I didn't buy into him having figured it all out again. I was never a believer in the new Kimbrel. His underlying concerns were still prevalent.

Edited November 6, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How in the fuck am I using that as a defense?  I’m asking you guys who say he now “sucks” with full conviction what is the driver was for his sudden fall off.  You’re pointing to velocity, but that’s a symptom of a broader problem and not the root cause.  Did he get injured in June or July?  If so, is there reason to think he’ll be healthy again and regain his 1st half form?  Was it something mechanical that can be addressed?  Or perhaps he simply wore out from a ~45 inning increase vs. 2020.  See, the difference between GMs and people like you and Parkman is they will ask these questions, discuss with their pro scouting and analytics staffs, and make an informed go-forward projection for Kimbrel that is based on data, logic, & reason.  And yes, people should be cautious about Craig given his bad two months could be the start of a trend, but they should also realize they could mean nothing and have zero predictive value.  Baseball people a lot smarter than me & you and far less emotional than half of Soxtalk feel there is a market for Kimbrel.  Obviously they could be wrong, but it’s laughable to think they are doing this in hopes of saving a move that did not work out and jeopardize their offseason plans.  KW & Hahn have endless job security and if they survived the James Shields fiasco, losing Nick Madrigal for a Hall of Famer closer with a xwOBA in the 100th percentile at the time of the trade won’t cost them shit.  Right or wrong, picking up Kimbre’s option is 100% about extracting value and nothing more.

 

Player	salary
1	Chapman Aroldis Chapman NYY	$18,000,000
2	Kimbrel Craig Kimbrel CHW	$16,000,000
3	Hendriks Liam Hendriks CHW	$13,333,333
		Will Smith, who closed out the World Series for the Braves, 4th at $13 million. Spotrac is actually showing Kenley Jansen at $20 million, which they obviously want nothing to do with anymore.   Raisel Iglesias at $9,125,000…likely to negotiate a longer term deal because he loves LA, but he’s part of the QO field and could come free and would be a Kimbrel alternative to other teams. You’ve also got Melancon who will turn down his $5-6 million option coming off one of his best seasons. Chapman is/was definitely not worth that $18 million in 2021 and lost his job. Heck, 15-18 teams in baseball would take 2-3 Carlos Martinezes and hope to catch lightning in a bottle for the same price as one fading Craig Kimbrel. The HoF label isn’t going to put more than a handful of butts in the seats, either. Relievers: Archie Bradley, Alex Cobb, Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Rosenthal, Kirby Yates

Edited November 6, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

I think he will pitch better in 2022 than he did with the Sox. I just don't think there is a chance in hell some team will take the contract, and give you value in return. I think they are far better off spending the money on other help. 

 

If the Sox needed a closer, would you be doing an Irish jig if the Sox picked up Kimbrel for $16 million and gave up a significant peice?  To me, this is just making a mistake,a bigger mistake. Every team makes mistakes. Compounding them when your window is open, closes said window a lot quicker.

I don’t think the price to get Kimbrel will be a significant piece.  But do I think the Phillies would be willing give up a lesser reliever with upside like Seranthony Dominguez?  I think they just might and how is that not better than eating a $1M buy-out?

[zisk]

5 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Nobody that's going to be swayed by such a small sample size.

I don't know. He was terrible for over 2 years, and we were certainly swayed by a fluke 32 innings.

[Eminor3rd]

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is the very definition of the sunk cost fallacy. 

No it isn't, unless you're prepared to make an argument that Kimbrel projects as an asset worth significantly less than 1/$16m on the market.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kimbrel had FIP's under 1.93 his first five years in the big leagues.

Since then he's been good, but not that same dominant performer:

2.68
2.92
1.42
3.13
8.00
3.97
2.43

What is the one noticeable change during that stretch, walks and command. Since 2018, Kimbrel's pitches in thrown in the strike zone has plummeted - 44, 42.7, 47, 48 - his career average coming into 2018 was 52.7%. This has led to people making more contact in the zone against Kimbrel since 2018 in comparison to his career norms. This has also greatly impacted the strength and dominance of his fastball, which he has lost command with the most. Between 2010-2017, Kimbrel's fastball average roughly 10.35 runs above average per season, between 2018-2021 Kimbrel's fastball has averaged .75 runs above average per season.

Kimbrel has shown a lot of signs of not being the arm he once was. I know you keep pointing to the two months of dominance, but let's not forget that Kimbrel could have been had for next to nothing last off-season as the Cubs would have loved to off load that contract. Has his value really changed all that much because of 30 innings despite the trends above? I have my doubts. Only time will tell. Kimbrel isn't as bad as he was with the Sox, but his time with the Sox epitomize what he's become. Just another volatile reliever who can have good and bad stretches. He can't be relied upon to be a dominating force (like a Hendriks) at the back end of a winning teams bullpen imo.

Edit: and you know I'm not just piggybacking off this because of his poor time with the Sox. I was shouting about his deteriorating skills the day we acquired him. I've been watching this trend unfold for the past 4 years. I didn't buy into him having figured it all out again. I was never a believer in the new Kimbrel. His underlying concerns were still prevalent.

I'm not sure it's fair to say that Kimbrel wasn't the same dominant pitcher.  Kimbrel had 3.6 WAR in 2017 and was amazing....16 strike outs per nine/ WHIP of .68.  He had a "down" year in 2018, and still had a 2.3 WAR,  2.7 ERA, struck out 14 batters per 9,  42 saves, 5 wins...and then saved six games in the playoffs..  He pitched a whopping 73 innings that year which probably led to his arm problems in 2019...he only pitched 20 inning that year...and then 15 innings in the COVID year.  Then this year through July he was again amazing like he has been most of his career.   Through 36 innings he was having one of the great relief years of all time...and yes he was terrible over 23 innings with the White Sox, but we give Rodon and others an excuse of being tired at the end of the year.  Why don't we give the same pass to Kimbrel?  He is getting older and I think it would be crazy to sign him to a three year extension at $16 million per year...but to bring him back for one more shot doesn't seem crazy...and yes the money...it's a lot to spend for relievers but as  I wrote in a different thread, the White Sox baseline attendance historically seems around 20,000 a game...when they are really good (mid 90's, mid-00's) they draw over 30,000...and peaked at 36,000.  If they draw 32,000 a game on average the next five years that should easily free up an extra $50 million in payroll over base payroll.  JR has had top five payrolls in the 90s and 00s and I think he will again.          

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

No it isn't, unless you're prepared to make an argument that Kimbrel projects as an asset worth significantly less than 1/$16m on the market.

That was the Law argument, 1/$10. But he hates the White Sox, right?  

Chapman for Kimbrel straight up would make more sense for White Sox than Yankees, with Sox paying $18 million instead of $16 million, then packaging Bummer for a 2B...not exactly the most logical move financially.

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kimbrel had FIP's under 1.93 his first five years in the big leagues.

Since then he's been good, but not that same dominant performer:

2.68
2.92
1.42
3.13
8.00
3.97
2.43

What is the one noticeable change during that stretch, walks and command. Since 2018, Kimbrel's pitches in thrown in the strike zone has plummeted - 44, 42.7, 47, 48 - his career average coming into 2018 was 52.7%. This has led to people making more contact in the zone against Kimbrel since 2018 in comparison to his career norms. This has also greatly impacted the strength and dominance of his fastball, which he has lost command with the most. Between 2010-2017, Kimbrel's fastball average roughly 10.35 runs above average per season, between 2018-2021 Kimbrel's fastball has averaged .75 runs above average per season.

Kimbrel has shown a lot of signs of not being the arm he once was. I know you keep pointing to the two months of dominance, but let's not forget that Kimbrel could have been had for next to nothing last off-season as the Cubs would have loved to off load that contract. Has his value really changed all that much because of 30 innings despite the trends above? I have my doubts. Only time will tell. Kimbrel isn't as bad as he was with the Sox, but his time with the Sox epitomize what he's become. Just another volatile reliever who can have good and bad stretches. He can't be relied upon to be a dominating force (like a Hendriks) at the back end of a winning teams bullpen imo.

Edit: and you know I'm not just piggybacking off this because of his poor time with the Sox. I was shouting about his deteriorating skills the day we acquired him. I've been watching this trend unfold for the past 4 years. I didn't buy into him having figured it all out again. I was never a believer in the new Kimbrel. His underlying concerns were still prevalent.

I'm not sure it's fair to say that Kimbrel wasn't the same dominant pitcher.  Kimbrel had 3.6 WAR in 2017 and was amazing....16 strike outs per nine/ WHIP of .68.  He had a "down" year in 2018, and still had a 2.3 WAR,  2.7 ERA, struck out 14 batters per 9,  42 saves, 5 wins...and then saved six games in the playoffs..  He pitched a whopping 73 innings that year which probably led to his arm problems in 2019...he only pitched 20 inning that year...and then 15 innings in the COVID year.  Then this year through July he was again amazing like he has been most of his career.   Through 36 innings he was having one of the great relief years of all time...and yes he was terrible over 23 innings with the White Sox, but we give Rodon and others an excuse of being tired at the end of the year.  Why don't we give the same pass to Kimbrel?  He is getting older and I think it would be crazy to sign him to a three year extension at $16 million per year...but to bring him back for one more shot doesn't seem crazy...and yes the money...it's a lot to spend for relievers but as  I wrote in a different thread, the White Sox baseline attendance historically seems around 20,000 a game...when they are really good (mid 90's, mid-00's) they draw over 30,000...and peaked at 36,000.  If they draw 32,000 a game on average the next five years that should easily free up an extra $50 million in payroll over base payroll.  JR has had top five payrolls in the 90s and 00s and I think he will again.          

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm not sure it's fair to say that Kimbrel wasn't the same dominant pitcher.  Kimbrel had 3.6 WAR in 2017 and was amazing....16 strike outs per nine/ WHIP of .68.  He had a "down" year in 2018, and still had a 2.3 WAR,  2.7 ERA, struck out 14 batters per 9,  42 saves, 5 wins...and then saved six games in the playoffs..  He pitched a whopping 73 innings that year which probably led to his arm problems in 2019...he only pitched 20 inning that year...and then 15 innings in the COVID year.  Then this year through July he was again amazing like he has been most of his career.   Through 36 innings he was having one of the great relief years of all time...and yes he was terrible over 23 innings with the White Sox, but we give Rodon and others an excuse of being tired at the end of the year.  Why don't we give the same pass to Kimbrel?  He is getting older and I think it would be crazy to sign him to a three year extension at $16 million per year...but to bring him back for one more shot doesn't seem crazy...and yes the money...it's a lot to spend for relievers but as  I wrote in a different thread, the White Sox baseline attendance historically seems around 20,000 a game...when they are really good (mid 90's, mid-00's) they draw over 30,000...and peaked at 36,000.  If they draw 32,000 a game on average the next five years that should easily free up an extra $50 million in payroll over base payroll.  JR has had top five payrolls in the 90s and 00s and I think he will again.          

That's fine and good for the very final finishing piece to complete a WS contender, but it is not more of a need than RF, 2B, and another starter if we lose Rodon (have to watch Kopech's innings, too) and even a legit backup catcher like Roberto Perez...who could also give Grandal more time at DH and help slow down the opponent's running game.  Those are four better ways to spend that $16 million.

Edited November 6, 2021 by caulfield12

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

That's fine and good for the very final finishing piece to complete a WS contender, but it is not more of a need than RF, 2B, and another starter if we lose Rodon (have to watch Kopech's innings, too) and even a legit backup catcher like Roberto Perez...who could also give Grandal more time at DH and help slow down the opponent's running game.  Those are four better ways to spend that $16 million.

I don't hate the idea of trading the crumbling K's for reallocation of salary...but I also don't hate the idea of using Vaughn in RF everyday, give Collins one more chance (I know, I know...I just can't help but be tantalized by lefty power hitting potential) sign Semien and Rodon and keep Kimbrell for a chance at a dominating bullpen.   Semien would be...what $25 a year?   Rodon $20...and you still have a few dollars left over from my $50 million budget expansion to sign Leury.   

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I don't hate the idea of trading the crumbling K's for reallocation of salary...but I also don't hate the idea of using Vaughn in RF everyday, give Collins one more chance (I know, I know...I just can't help but be tantalized by lefty power hitting potential) sign Semien and Rodon and keep Kimbrell for a chance at a dominating bullpen.   Semien would be...what $25 a year?   Rodon $20...and you still have a few dollars left over from my $50 million budget expansion to sign Leury.   

I would love to sample whatever "optimistic juice" you're having...

Looks like the ship has already sailed on Rodon, unless all the talk about the QO has just been a smokescreen.

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I would love to sample whatever "optimistic juice" you're having...

Looks like the ship has already sailed on Rodon, unless all the talk about the QO has just been a smokescreen.

Caulfield I would be happy to send you some optimism juice.  It's the offseason and the time for hope...and as I have written now multiple times...it seems very likely (barely a strike) that our attendance will boom and JR always spends when attendance is big.   We have been very cautious with our money to this point (I don't think any really bad contracts right now) so it might be the year to swing for the fences.  Also I didn't see where Rodon was lost...I thought QO is the route to go if they still want him.  You could make the argument to get Robbie Ray instead...both lefties...both dominant when their stuff is good.  I just think RR will get a bigger offer but if you have one BIG contract to offer...Semien or RR...I'm good with either....I just think you can get Rodon on a short term deal because of the risk.     

[Chicago White Sox]

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That was the Law argument, 1/$10. But he hates the White Sox, right?  

Chapman for Kimbrel straight up would make more sense for White Sox than Yankees, with Sox paying $18 million instead of $16 million, then packaging Bummer for a 2B...not exactly the most logical move financially.

Why people keep using Keith Law as gospel?  He’s a smart baseball guy no doubt, but he’s also not an active front office member (probably for good reason) and wouldn’t have that much better of a read on the market value of Kimbrel than any of us.