Kimbrel option expected to be exercised

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

No it isn't, unless you're prepared to make an argument that Kimbrel projects as an asset worth significantly less than 1/$16m on the market.

I don't think he'd get much more than 8M on a one year deal. 

So yes, that's what I believe. I think there's been too much terrible over the last 3 years from Kimbrel to think he's worth anything close to 16M

He's had stretches of greatness, but more stretches of terribad. 

Wait until the fact that the contract is immovable keeps the Sox from doing anything once the CBA is finalized. 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think he'd get much more than 8M on a one year deal. 

So yes, that's what I believe. I think there's been too much terrible over the last 3 years from Kimbrel to think he's worth anything close to 16M

He's had stretches of greatness, but more stretches of terribad. 

Wait until the fact that the contract is immovable keeps the Sox from doing anything once the CBA is finalized. 

More stretches of terribad?  Do you ever do any research or just spew non stop garbage?

Here is a breakdown of Kimbrel’s stats of the last three years:

• 2019 (Full Year): 20.2 innings | 8.00 FIP | 4.75 xFIP
• 2020 (July only): 1.1 innings | 33.94 FIP | 18.78 xFIP
• 2020 (Aug to Oct): 14.0 innings | 1.12 FIP | 2.36 xFIP
• 2021 (Apr to Jul): 37.2 innings | 1.10 FIP | 1.97 xFIP
• 2021 (Aug to Oct): 22.0 innings | 4.71 FIP | 3.85 xFIP

Over the past few years he pitched a total of 95.2 innings and had a 3.88 FIP and 3.29 xFIP.  However, in the middle of this period he had a 51.2 inning stretch across 2020 & 2021 where he put up a 1.10 FIP & 2.08 xFIP.  54% of his innings during this period, including the vast majority of 2020, have been elite.  I love people rip his 2020 season for being part of his “downward spiral” but don’t have a clue that it was greatly understated because of one horrific inning to start the year.

So again, I ask you why does he suddenly suck?  What changed when the calendar turned to August and he changed uniforms?  Is the velocity drop due to him being gassed out with a large innings increase?  Why are you weighting his go forward performance so much heavier on the last 22 innings rather the 51.2 innings preceding them?  I know you’ll have no answer and will just say he sucks and go back to living your incredibly pessimistic life, but it would be nice for once if people like you could actually have rationale arguments when declaring someone sucks with full conviction.

[GreenSox]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, Kimbrel tied for 5th amongst relievers with 2.2 fWAR and was literally the best reliever in baseball over the first four months of the season.  If his August & September struggles were spread over the course of the season then he’d be looking at a lot more than a 1/$16M season.  GMs are going to evaluate the situation objectively and be far less emotional than White Sox fans who are bitter about giving up Madrigal in the trade.

Perhaps.
Or maybe it's the GM who, once again,  refuses to face the reality that he overpaid for and overrated yet another veteran.   
Squandering assets takes its toll.

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Perhaps.
Or maybe it's the GM who, once again,  refuses to face the reality that he overpaid for and overrated yet another veteran.   
Squandering assets takes its toll.

Just like he overrated Lynn & Hendriks?  Haven’t heard you complain too much about those additions.  Also, not sure how to tell you this, but when you’re a competitive team at the trade deadline, you’re typically adding veterans.  I’m not sure why you consistently use that word as being some sort of negative.  The rebuild has been over for some time.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just like he overrated Lynn & Hendriks?  Haven’t heard you complain too much about those additions.  Also, not sure how to tell you this, but when you’re a competitive team at the trade deadline, you’re typically adding veterans.  I’m not sure why you consistently use that word as being some sort of negative.  The rebuild has been over for some time.

Sports are a young man's game. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

Players don't get better, they only get worse. 

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sports are a young man's game. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

Players don't get better, they only get worse. 

 

This is just dumb.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sports are a young man's game. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

Players don't get better, they only get worse. 

 

Did you watch the World Series, Jack?

[Tony]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sports are a young man's game. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

Players don't get better, they only get worse. 

 

I mean, not only is that statement not true (for like 100 reasons) the article you linked doesn't even speak to your argument. This is how they close the piece:

Quote

As I alluded to earlier, the age curve is a useful illustration of what happens to player performance over time, but the wide range of outcomes means that almost anything can happen for any given player in a season. Gurriel, Longoria, and Votto each carved out unique paths to improvement in spite of getting older. Maybe other players can and will follow suit to adapt similar approaches.

 

[Eminor3rd]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think he'd get much more than 8M on a one year deal. 

So yes, that's what I believe. I think there's been too much terrible over the last 3 years from Kimbrel to think he's worth anything close to 16M

He's had stretches of greatness, but more stretches of terribad. 

Wait until the fact that the contract is immovable keeps the Sox from doing anything once the CBA is finalized. 

I hated the trade, and was not shy about it at the time.

But you have to remember that the winning bid on free agents is the HIGHEST bid. It's really difficult to imagine that the winning bid for Kimbrel wouldn't be a multi-year deal. 2/20, 3/36? There's value there. I think 1/8 is just way off. Though if you think 1/8 is it, then I can see why you wouldn't like it.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

I mean, not only is that statement not true (for like 100 reasons) the article you linked doesn't even speak to your argument. This is how they close the piece:

 

Posey and Sal Perez as well…

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I hated the trade, and was not shy about it at the time.

But you have to remember that the winning bid on free agents is the HIGHEST bid. It's really difficult to imagine that the winning bid for Kimbrel wouldn't be a multi-year deal. 2/20, 3/36? There's value there. I think 1/8 is just way off. Though if you think 1/8 is it, then I can see why you wouldn't like it.

Three years after what the Cubs just went through going through over a four year stint when he was much closer to his prime?

I could see two years OR just one with huge incentives kicking it during that year to pay $15 million plus and a big jump for the second year if he pitched like that 2021 first half again.

The irony is they ended up getting a better return for Kimbrel than Darvish.  
Timing.

[Chicago White Sox]

James Fegan, the smartest beat writer in my lifetime, seems to think Kimbrel has some value on a 1/$16M deal.  ?

Edited November 7, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

James Fegan, the smartest beat writer in my lifetime, seems to think Kimbrel has some value on a 1/$16M deal.  ?

Define "some." 

Sure, just like $16 million could buy the equivalent of five Carlos Rodon's last offseason if you could only identify them correctly... 

Or more likely two Adam Eaton's.

[ChiSox59]

18 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Nobody that's going to be swayed by such a small sample size.

His sample Sox of actually being good since his Cubs tenure started is much smaller than being just a guy. 

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

His sample Sox of actually being good since his Cubs tenure started is much smaller than being just a guy. 

Nobody would look at his age, his declining velocities, and statistics as a whole over the last four full seasons and conclude he should still be the third highest paid reliever in the sport…would they?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

His sample Sox of actually being good since his Cubs tenure started is much smaller than being just a guy. 

How so?  I literally just showed he had a 51.2 inning stretch of elite performance across the 2020 & 2021 seasons.  That’s 54% of his total innings in that time.  Ignore his two month period with us and 70% of his time with the Cubs was elite.  People are overreacting to 20 shit innings in 2019 (when he didn’t have a spring training) and one bad inning in 2020.  Soxtalk’s narrative on Kimbrel is completely off base.

[Jack Parkman]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

More stretches of terribad?  Do you ever do any research or just spew non stop garbage?

Here is a breakdown of Kimbrel’s stats of the last three years:

• 2019 (Full Year): 20.2 innings | 8.00 FIP | 4.75 xFIP
• 2020 (July only): 1.1 innings | 33.94 FIP | 18.78 xFIP
• 2020 (Aug to Oct): 14.0 innings | 1.12 FIP | 2.36 xFIP
• 2021 (Apr to Jul): 37.2 innings | 1.10 FIP | 1.97 xFIP
• 2021 (Aug to Oct): 22.0 innings | 4.71 FIP | 3.85 xFIP

Over the past few years he pitched a total of 95.2 innings and had a 3.88 FIP and 3.29 xFIP.  However, in the middle of this period he had a 51.2 inning stretch across 2020 & 2021 where he put up a 1.10 FIP & 2.08 xFIP.  54% of his innings during this period, including the vast majority of 2020, have been elite.  I love people rip his 2020 season for being part of his “downward spiral” but don’t have a clue that it was greatly understated because of one horrific inning to start the year.

So again, I ask you why does he suddenly suck?  What changed when the calendar turned to August and he changed uniforms?  Is the velocity drop due to him being gassed out with a large innings increase?  Why are you weighting his go forward performance so much heavier on the last 22 innings rather the 51.2 innings preceding them?  I know you’ll have no answer and will just say he sucks and go back to living your incredibly pessimistic life, but it would be nice for once if people like you could actually have rationale arguments when declaring someone sucks with full conviction.

Kimbrel suddenly sucks because the Cubs pitchlab figured something out for him, he got to the Sox, got out of whack mechanically and the Sox weren't able to figure out how to fix him. I thought this was common knowledge. 

May I ask.......if you were a fan of another team, or a FO person......would you give up anything other than minor league scraps to acquire him? 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

The nice thing is this will have a nice ability to track how well people are predicting this scenario. 

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Kimbrel suddenly sucks because the Cubs pitchlab figured something out for him, he got to the Sox, got out of whack mechanically and the Sox weren't able to figure out how to fix him. I thought this was common knowledge. 

May I ask.......if you were a fan of another team, or a FO person......would you give up anything other than minor league scraps to acquire him? 

Terrible Craig Kimbrel was still striking out 39% of his batters while on the Sox. 
 

If you think no fans look at that and think he’d turn it around, I’d say you are someone prone to reactionary opinions that you constantly walk back

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How so?  I literally just showed he had a 51.2 inning stretch of elite performance across the 2020 & 2021 seasons.  That’s 54% of his total innings in that time.  Ignore his two month period with us and 70% of his time with the Cubs was elite.  People are overreacting to 20 shit innings in 2019 (when he didn’t have a spring training) and one bad inning in 2020.  Soxtalk’s narrative on Kimbrel is completely off base.

It will all come down to what happens with him. If they trade him and get a broken bat in return, they did the right thing. If they trade him and eat or take back any bad money , or he is on the team as a mediocre set up man and stops them from spending $16 million on other needs, they fucked up. I don’t think anyone is arguing with you whether Kimbrel has been an elite closer. He has, but the Sox have an elite closer. They need to spend this $16 million on something else.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

The nice thing is this will have a nice ability to track how well people are predicting this scenario. 

They're off to a bang up start.  

[ChiSox59]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How so?  I literally just showed he had a 51.2 inning stretch of elite performance across the 2020 & 2021 seasons.  That’s 54% of his total innings in that time.  Ignore his two month period with us and 70% of his time with the Cubs was elite.  People are overreacting to 20 shit innings in 2019 (when he didn’t have a spring training) and one bad inning in 2020.  Soxtalk’s narrative on Kimbrel is completely off base.

Fair. My comment was off the cuff. I don’t think Kimbrel is a terrible pitcher, but I think the Sox can allocate his $ in a much better fashion. If we’re just dumping him for another bad contract, picking up thr option was a dumb call. If jR is willing to spend $200M on this team - good, great, grand. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It will all come down to what happens with him. If they trade him and get a broken bat in return, they did the right thing. If they trade him and eat or take back any bad money , or he is on the team as a mediocre set up man and stops them from spending $16 million on other needs, they fucked up. I don’t think anyone is arguing with you whether Kimbrel has been an elite closer. He has, but the Sox have an elite closer. They need to spend this $16 million on something else.

Nailed it. 

The Sox might get a Blake Rutherford or Micker Adolfo type, or an interesting A ball pitcher. Is that worth the risk of getting stuck with Kimbrel's $16M? 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It will all come down to what happens with him. If they trade him and get a broken bat in return, they did the right thing. If they trade him and eat or take back any bad money , or he is on the team as a mediocre set up man and stops them from spending $16 million on other needs, they fucked up. I don’t think anyone is arguing with you whether Kimbrel has been an elite closer. He has, but the Sox have an elite closer. They need to spend this $16 million on something else.

If the Sox trade Kimbrel for a bag of balls or a “broken bat” how is that the right call? They’re effectively risking $15M to save $1M. I’m a gambling man, and those are bad odds. 

[poppysox]

RH is either planing to use Kimbrel in our pen or is certain he can recoup a meaningful player in a trade.  No way is the 16 million being spent in order to ship him off for a bucket of balls.  Personally, I would have just released him and spent the money elsewhere.  However, the FO has tons more knowledge of the market than we fans.