Kimbrel option expected to be exercised

[Dick Allen]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If the Sox trade Kimbrel for a bag of balls or a “broken bat” how is that the right call? They’re effectively risking $15M to save $1M. I’m a gambling man, and those are bad odds. 

It’s the right call because they save $1 million. I wouldn’t have taken the risk. I posted yesterday, Kimbrel has been traded 3 times.2 times when he was much cheaper and younger, and had fewer question marks. Nick Madrigal is probably the best player any team ever received for him. I think this is close to crazy. Teams willing to pay closers $16 million is limited. Teams willing to pay closers $16 million and currently needing one is more limited.

Edited November 7, 2021 by Dick Allen

[tray]

18 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly?  Why did he suddenly suck?  You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

An earlier fall-off in Kimbel's career might provide some clues for GMs considering a possible trade:

 

[GreenSox]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just like he overrated Lynn & Hendriks?  Haven’t heard you complain too much about those additions.  Also, not sure how to tell you this, but when you’re a competitive team at the trade deadline, you’re typically adding veterans.  I’m not sure why you consistently use that word as being some sort of negative.  The rebuild has been over for some time.

Well sure he's had some hits.  But he's had far more misses.  And when you trade for veterans, you're supposed to be getting the sure thing and you should have more hits than misses.  Many of his trades for veterans are obvious overpays on the front end, even if the veteran performed as expected.
  Part of it is that the Sox don't have the FO infrastructure of the top orgs (pro scouting, state-of-the-art analytics) and are still too 'friends and family."
And a lot of contending teams aren't veterans only, and keep a constant infusion of young talent.

Edited November 7, 2021 by GreenSox

[zisk]

Let me get this straight. We're thinking of spending 16 million for Kimbrall, and thinking about not offering Rodon 18.4 million.

If it happens this way, every one in the FO should be fired.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, zisk said:

Let me get this straight. We're thinking of spending 16 million for Kimbrall, and thinking about not offering Rodon 18.4 million.

If it happens this way, every one in the FO should be fired.

I personally think they offer him the QO. I would risk it for a year. I would rather do that than offer a big multi year deal.

[Bob Sacamano]

I just noticed that JD Martinez has until today to opt out of his contract. I thought that has to happen by a certain date? If he opts out, Red Sox should be able to offer a QO (like Reds just did to Castellanos).

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Terrible Craig Kimbrel was still striking out 39% of his batters while on the Sox. 
 

If you think no fans look at that and think he’d turn it around, I’d say you are someone prone to reactionary opinions that you constantly walk back

Spot on.  Other fans will look at his season in aggregate and say “I can get a reliever who put up the 5th most fWAR in all of baseball for a song”.  I bet Phillies’ fans would be ecstatic to give up someone like Seranthony Dominguez for one year of Kimbrel at $16M.  These fans aren’t going to overreact his 22 inning bad stretch with the Sox.

[zisk]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Spot on.  Other fans will look at his season in aggregate and say “I can get a reliever who put up the 5th most fWAR in all of baseball for a song”.  I bet Phillies’ fans would be ecstatic to give up someone like Seranthony Dominguez for one year of Kimbrel at $16M.  These fans aren’t going to overreact his 22 inning bad stretch with the Sox.

Drinking on a Sunday morning is bad for your health.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

It’s the right call because they save $1 million. I wouldn’t have taken the risk. I posted yesterday, Kimbrel has been traded 3 times.2 times when he was much cheaper and younger, and had fewer question marks. Nick Madrigal is probably the best player any team ever received for him. I think this is close to crazy. Teams willing to pay closers $16 million is limited. Teams willing to pay closers $16 million and currently needing one is more limited.

Yeah, I mean 15 to 1 odds are not how you make good gambles. Only way this all makes sense if they’re positive they have a trade partner garnering something cheap and useful, or the budget as we all know it will be smashed and they’re fine paying Kimbrel $16M and solving all other club needs. I guess we’ll see. 

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Spot on.  Other fans will look at his season in aggregate and say “I can get a reliever who put up the 5th most fWAR in all of baseball for a song”.  I bet Phillies’ fans would be ecstatic to give up someone like Seranthony Dominguez for one year of Kimbrel at $16M.  These fans aren’t going to overreact his 22 inning bad stretch with the Sox.

OTOH, the constency is a problem.  Teams don't want to pay $16 million for a guy who will be unhittable for 3 or 4 months, but mediocre at best for a couple of months and the playoffs. 

 

We will see. I hope the Sox get this one right. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

It will all come down to what happens with him. If they trade him and get a broken bat in return, they did the right thing. If they trade him and eat or take back any bad money , or he is on the team as a mediocre set up man and stops them from spending $16 million on other needs, they fucked up. I don’t think anyone is arguing with you whether Kimbrel has been an elite closer. He has, but the Sox have an elite closer. They need to spend this $16 million on something else.

Fully agree with you here.  I just get frustrated that people simply look at his two months with the Sox and act like he’s the worst reliever of all time.  When the guy is going right, Kimbrel is as good as anyone in the game.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Fair. My comment was off the cuff. I don’t think Kimbrel is a terrible pitcher, but I think the Sox can allocate his $ in a much better fashion. If we’re just dumping him for another bad contract, picking up thr option was a dumb call. If jR is willing to spend $200M on this team - good, great, grand. 

100% agree.  If we trade him for a bad contract, it’s an incredibly stupid move.  I still think we should be able to get an interesting, less proven reliever for him or a couple of C caliber prospects.  

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Well sure he's had some hits.  But he's had far more misses.  And when you trade for veterans, you're supposed to be getting the sure thing and you should have more hits than misses.  Many of his trades for veterans are obvious overpays on the front end, even if the veteran performed as expected.
  Part of it is that the Sox don't have the FO infrastructure of the top orgs (pro scouting, state-of-the-art analytics) and are still too 'friends and family."
And a lot of contending teams aren't veterans only, and keep a constant infusion of young talent.

They have greatly overhauled their pro scouting department and I think that shows with their most recent moves.  At some point you have to move past the Fernando Tatis, which probably reflects a low point for the organization.

And yeah, a lot contending teams have young talent and so do the Sox, so not sure what your point is there.  The Dodgers traded two of their best prospects to add two veterans at the deadline because that’s what good teams do at the deadline.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, zisk said:

Let me get this straight. We're thinking of spending 16 million for Kimbrall, and thinking about not offering Rodon 18.4 million.

If it happens this way, every one in the FO should be fired.

If they don’t offer Rodon a QO, it’s because they’re rather spend that $18.4M on a better and/or safer pitcher.  And the Sox aren’t going to keep “Kimbrall” and there is absolutely no connect between him and Rodon.

[zisk]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If they don’t offer Rodon a QO, it’s because they’re rather spend that $18.4M on a better and/or safer pitcher.  And the Sox aren’t going to keep “Kimbrall” and there is absolutely no connect between him and Rodon.

Yes there is. Its called asset allocation.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, zisk said:

Yes there is. Its called asset allocation.

What is called asset allocation?

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They have greatly overhauled their pro scouting department and I think that shows with their most recent moves.  

Which deal should I look at to see them having scouted well in advance, the Kimbrel one or the Hernandez one?

With the Kimbrel deal, one of the things we noted in August was a reluctance to use his breaking ball ahead in the count and at least once he gave up a game trying to throw a not overpowering high fastball. Why? Because if runners got on base the catchers couldn’t block his curve ball. While I didn’t think of that beforehand and realize it at the time of the trade, that was absolutely something one of these well qualified baseball people should have asked - can our catchers work with this guy? It wasn’t his only problem, but it’s going to be there next spring too if Kimbrel isn’t traded.

And on Hernandez, some people in the trade thread noted that all his numbers were down across the board this year except his power, so for him to not be terrible he needed to keep hitting home runs, pretty much spelling out exactly why he would break. Seemingly no scout got that either. If you throw in whatever decision was made to not get Escobar who did perform well, these scouts performed about as well as me at the deadline. That’s alarming.

[hi8is]

Can Kimbrel play second? ?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Which deal should I look at to see them having scouted well in advance, the Kimbrel one or the Hernandez one?

With the Kimbrel deal, one of the things we noted in August was a reluctance to use his breaking ball ahead in the count and at least once he gave up a game trying to throw a not overpowering high fastball. Why? Because if runners got on base the catchers couldn’t block his curve ball. While I didn’t think of that beforehand and realize it at the time of the trade, that was absolutely something one of these well qualified baseball people should have asked - can our catchers work with this guy? It wasn’t his only problem, but it’s going to be there next spring too if Kimbrel isn’t traded.

And on Hernandez, some people in the trade thread noted that all his numbers were down across the board this year except his power, so for him to not be terrible he needed to keep hitting home runs, pretty much spelling out exactly why he would break. Seemingly no scout got that either. If you throw in whatever decision was made to not get Escobar who did perform well, these scouts performed about as well as me at the deadline. That’s alarming.

I wasn’t referring to the deadline deals specifically (adding two All-Stars in the offseason is a nice step up from what we’ve historically gotten), but funny you don’t bring up the Tepera trade at all.

Again, apparently you knew a guy with a 0.50 ERA was going to suddenly flop.  If only we could replace Hahn with you we probably win the last two World Series.

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I wasn’t referring to the deadline deals specifically (adding two All-Stars in the offseason is a nice step up from what we’ve historically gotten), but funny you don’t bring up the Tepera trade at all.

Again, apparently you knew a guy with a 0.50 ERA was going to suddenly flop.  If only we could replace Hahn with you we probably win the last two World Series.

I certainly thought he would be better than he was but a little regression to the mean could be expected.  If he had kept it up, it would have been one of theall time great seasons. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I wasn’t referring to the deadline deals specifically (adding two All-Stars in the offseason is a nice step up from what we’ve historically gotten), but funny you don’t bring up the Tepera trade at all.

Again, apparently you knew a guy with a 0.50 ERA was going to suddenly flop.  If only we could replace Hahn with you we probably win the last two World Series.

Funny I don’t bring up the Tepera deal when your literal excuse is “oh I was only referring to certain deals”? Come on man. 

And seriously, why am I called out for not seeing that Kimbrel will collapse while the pro scouts are deserving of compliments? If someone wants to pay me to do that for a living, then you could blame me, but you won’t do that with the people who are paid to evaluate that stuff.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I certainly thought he would be better than he was but a little regression to the mean could be expected.  If he had kept it up, it would have been one of theall time great seasons. 

Sure, it’s fine to expect some regression, but no one expected a near 5 ERA.  Some of the best organizations in baseball were competing for him in the Dodgers & Rays.  I don’t hear Balta ripping on them though.  There is plenty to rip Rick Hahn for, including the price he paid for Kimbrel, but using his disastrous time with us as a pro scouting failure isn’t one of them IMO.

[hi8is]

6 hours ago, zisk said:

Let me get this straight. We're thinking of spending 16 million for Kimbrall, and thinking about not offering Rodon 18.4 million.

If it happens this way, every one in the FO should be fired.

So stupid.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Funny I don’t bring up the Tepera deal when your literal excuse is “oh I was only referring to certain deals”? Come on man. 

And seriously, why am I called out for not seeing that Kimbrel will collapse while the pro scouts are deserving of compliments? If someone wants to pay me to do that for a living, then you could blame me, but you won’t do that with the people who are paid to evaluate that stuff.

First off, when did I say I was only referring to certain deals?  I said I wasn’t referring to the trade deadline specifically when I said I think the pro scouting has improved.  With a very tight budget the Sox were able to add two All-Stars and bring back a third one this past offseason.  Their offseason wasn’t perfect, but it was probably the best one since god knows when.  2006 maybe?

Second, I’ve never even said our pro scouting staff is good.  Being better than one of the worst pro scouting functions in all of baseball doesn’t mean you’re good.  My point was the pro scouting staff has gone through a major shakeup since the Tatis dark days and to stop penalizing the current group for the past group’s misdoings.  That being said, you’re using the Kimbrel trade as proof of our pro scouting group failing despite arguably the two best pro scouting departments in baseball (Rays & Dodgers) wanting him.  So yeah, unless you made these predictions at the time of acquisition, I’m going to call you out for using hindsight to rip our organization.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sure, it’s fine to expect some regression, but no one expected a near 5 ERA.  Some of the best organizations in baseball were competing for him in the Dodgers & Rays.  I don’t hear Balta ripping on them though.  There is plenty to rip Rick Hahn for, including the price he paid for Kimbrel, but using his disastrous time with us as a pro scouting failure isn’t one of them IMO.

Well first of all, they didn’t actually deal for him. Our team did. You complimented our pro scouts for it and then seem pretty down on the teams that didn’t.

But even with that - how are the Dodgers and Rays catchers behind the plate? The White Sox were near the top of the league in wild pitches, the Dodgers were near the bottom. Rays were 11th, Cubs were 15th, with about 30% fewer WP. So for that scouting detail, blocking his breaking ball, it was far less of a concern for the Dodgers, but was a major one for the White Sox. That is a specific detail that our pro scouts could have identified and did not. Why not?