Where could Kimbrel be traded, and for what?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Well another possibility is they signed Graveman and it sent teams to look for dominant relievers thus other teams are jumping in on Kimbrel?

If there is anything happening on the Kimbrel front there's nothing at all about it. Heyman said the Phils are interested and that's it so far.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Well another possibility is they signed Graveman and it sent teams to look for dominant relievers thus more teams are jumping in on Kimbrel.

If that were the case, then you get it done and get the contract cleared now. You’re not suddenly going to get a top 50 prospect for this guy if you wait longer. The market may improve slightly, but not so much it reshapes your franchise. As CWS said, there won’t be a lot of suitors for this guy at his price level, and right now the White Sox are holding all the risk if those handful of teams start finding deals elsewhere. Holding if you had a tolerable offer and hoping for better would be a high risk, low reward move.

The other option…there actually is very little activity on him and the White Sox are leaking that they have tons of interest in the hopes that they can create a market.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

14 minutes ago, fathom said:

Also funny he posted that right after Harold mentioned something similar

Thanks for reading notcishek.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If that were the case, then you get it done and get the contract cleared now. You’re not suddenly going to get a top 50 prospect for this guy if you wait longer. The market may improve slightly, but not so much it reshapes your franchise. As CWS said, there won’t be a lot of suitors for this guy at his price level, and right now the White Sox are holding all the risk if those handful of teams start finding deals elsewhere. Holding if you had a tolerable offer and hoping for better would be a high risk, low reward move.

The other option…there actually is very little activity on him and the White Sox are leaking that they have tons of interest in the hopes that they can create a market.

The last line could definitely be true and I'll throw in there that the Phil's offers could've started very low wanting the Sox to take problem child Gregorius off their hands.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The last line could definitely be true and I'll throw in there that the Phil's offers could've started very low wanting the Sox to take problem child Gregorius off their hands.

There were never going to be more than 5-6 teams to begin with.

Dodgers, pretty unlikely with all their options…and Jansen potentially returning.  Have Treinen and Knebel already.

Phillies and Blue Jays…the Rays hate to allocate that kind of money even for one season on a relief pitcher.

Angels if Iglesias doesn’t resign.

Padres too financially strapped, Melancon could return on a relatively cheaper deal despite his 2021 headline numbers.

Finally, the Brewers are looking to trade Hader for the right return.

Edited November 27, 2021 by caulfield12

[FriendlyNorthsider]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

There were never going to be more than 5-6 teams to begin with.

Dodgers, pretty unlikely with all their options…and Jansen potentially returning.  Have Treinen and Knebel already.

Phillies and Blue Jays…the Rays hate to allocate that kind of money even for one season on a relief pitcher.

Angels if Iglesias doesn’t resign.

Padres too financially strapped, Melancon could return on a relatively cheaper deal despite his 2021 headline numbers.

Finally, the Brewers are looking to trade Hader for the right return.

The market is definitely very unclear, but I have to think the Phillies are by far the best fit. The Kimbrel-Segura swap works out financially, but I think there are some issues for either side.

If the Sox were to be seriously pursuing a Robbie Ray or and Marcus Semien they might want to find someone that will eat Kimbrel's contract and send over a modest prospect return. If Hahn got somebody to pay the entire contract and got a player like Marchin or traded him back to the Cubs for Codi Heuer, that would ultimately make the move to pick up the option worth it as you'd save the $1M buyout and get a player. I think Kimbrel's deal is right at if not over market value, but I think Hahn is an excellent seller and will be able to get surplus value. 

A salary floor raise the market for teams willing to take on the entire contract. If a team like the Rays had to get their salary up to say $100M in 2022, Kimbrel would be a great piece for them. That said, the Phillies could also trade Segura to open up salary for a bigger FA if that route opens up for them. 

If the Sox were to strike out on the big free agents, they could use Kimbrel to swap for a player like Segura that is a much better use of the $16M based on the Sox roster. 

This may be total bullshit, but I think some newer GM's would rather go for mid-tier relievers that they think may break out instead of putting all of the 16M eggs in the Kimbrel basket. Based only on AAV, you could probably sign Tepera and Graveman for the price of Kimbrel (while supplies last of course). A team with a deeper farm system might just decide to wait until late June to see whether they need a shut down closer and be willing to pay a premium. Old school guys like TLR love having deep bullpens with a big time closer, and fortunately for the Sox, Dombrowski is cut from the same cloth. 

The best version of the White Sox in 2022 does not include Kimbrel on the roster. Paying 3 players closer money is not tenable unless blowing past the Luxury Tax.  I don't think they are in a position to wait to use Kimbrel as a lottery ticket for the first half of the year. Trading Kimbrel now would be trading him for maybe .50 cents on the dollar. His stock is highly volatile however, and there is some big upside come the trade deadline if he returns to form and the right teams are buying.

All of this being said, I think the Phillies make a lot of sense. Their farm system is weak, so being able to get Kimbrel for either just money or Segura is a worthwhile risk provided they can make the Luxury Tax work. Dombrowski values closers and knows Kimbrel well from his time in Boston. 

I can also see teams that would need to make a hypothetical salary minimum being interested in Kimbrel. He would allow them to hit the minimum while their arbitration players mature and get more expensive.

And lastly, I could see teams like the Cubs being interested in bringing in Kimbrel should the priority for the Sox be to open up money for a guy like Robbie Ray. The Cubs have a lot of money to spend in 2022 and may be looking for high-AAV, low year players to acquire to trade at the deadline. They would be able to feature Kimbrel in the 9th inning in an environment he succeeded in. 

All three of these scenarios involve the big free agents signing elsewhere and would likely take place after Dec 1. As the season gets closer, it'll be harder to use Kimbrel to fill a need and will be more likely to be a salary dump

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

The market is definitely very unclear, but I have to think the Phillies are by far the best fit. The Kimbrel-Segura swap works out financially, but I think there are some issues for either side.

If the Sox were to be seriously pursuing a Robbie Ray or and Marcus Semien they might want to find someone that will eat Kimbrel's contract and send over a modest prospect return. If Hahn got somebody to pay the entire contract and got a player like Marchin or traded him back to the Cubs for Codi Heuer, that would ultimately make the move to pick up the option worth it as you'd save the $1M buyout and get a player. I think Kimbrel's deal is right at if not over market value, but I think Hahn is an excellent seller and will be able to get surplus value. 

A salary floor raise the market for teams willing to take on the entire contract. If a team like the Rays had to get their salary up to say $100M in 2022, Kimbrel would be a great piece for them. That said, the Phillies could also trade Segura to open up salary for a bigger FA if that route opens up for them. 

If the Sox were to strike out on the big free agents, they could use Kimbrel to swap for a player like Segura that is a much better use of the $16M based on the Sox roster. 

This may be total bullshit, but I think some newer GM's would rather go for mid-tier relievers that they think may break out instead of putting all of the 16M eggs in the Kimbrel basket. Based only on AAV, you could probably sign Tepera and Graveman for the price of Kimbrel (while supplies last of course). A team with a deeper farm system might just decide to wait until late June to see whether they need a shut down closer and be willing to pay a premium. Old school guys like TLR love having deep bullpens with a big time closer, and fortunately for the Sox, Dombrowski is cut from the same cloth. 

The best version of the White Sox in 2022 does not include Kimbrel on the roster. Paying 3 players closer money is not tenable unless blowing past the Luxury Tax.  I don't think they are in a position to wait to use Kimbrel as a lottery ticket for the first half of the year. Trading Kimbrel now would be trading him for maybe .50 cents on the dollar. His stock is highly volatile however, and there is some big upside come the trade deadline if he returns to form and the right teams are buying.

All of this being said, I think the Phillies make a lot of sense. Their farm system is weak, so being able to get Kimbrel for either just money or Segura is a worthwhile risk provided they can make the Luxury Tax work. Dombrowski values closers and knows Kimbrel well from his time in Boston. 

I can also see teams that would need to make a hypothetical salary minimum being interested in Kimbrel. He would allow them to hit the minimum while their arbitration players mature and get more expensive.

And lastly, I could see teams like the Cubs being interested in bringing in Kimbrel should the priority for the Sox be to open up money for a guy like Robbie Ray. The Cubs have a lot of money to spend in 2022 and may be looking for high-AAV, low year players to acquire to trade at the deadline. They would be able to feature Kimbrel in the 9th inning in an environment he succeeded in. 

All three of these scenarios involve the big free agents signing elsewhere and would likely take place after Dec 1. As the season gets closer, it'll be harder to use Kimbrel to fill a need and will be more likely to be a salary dump

https://phillysportsnetwork.com/2021/11/17/jean-segura/

“How much cap space do they currently have to do so? $43 million. Considering Jose Berrios‘ seven-year, $131 million contract extension in Toronto and Noah Syndergaard’s one-year, $21 million move to Anaheim, and that does not seem like much. Sure, the Phillies could go for cheap options to fill the gaps like they did last year, but we all know how well that worked out.”

 

The White Sox clearly won’t take Gregorious, but dealing Segura to another team that really wants him for SS (one of the teams losing out on the Big 4 at SS and then Semien as well) to free up that money to turn around and spend it on CF and LF makes equal sense for the Phillies.   They have prospect depth up the middle and need to open up those spots by trading Segura and attempting to get a rebound from Gregorious.

Realistically, they could use Kimbrel AND Vaughn, but then who would the White Sox be going after beyond Segura?  Obviously not Wheeler, Realmuto or Harper…and trading Nola at a discount doesn’t make much sense either, because you just opened up another hole in their rotation.

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

 

Good job Sox. You are really screwing this offseason up royally.

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

Good job Sox. You are really screwing this offseason up royally.

Or the pundant foodies and notmen are full of poop. Though, I never wanted them to trade for him or opt into his option - so I’ll give you that. ?

[fathom]

Knebel likely being brought in to set-up.  Also opens up the Dodgers. 

[wegner]

4 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Or the pundant foodies and notmen are full of poop. Though, I never wanted them to trade for him or opt into his option - so I’ll give you that. ?

All I want for Xmas is Kimbrel off my favorite baseball team....well maybe they'll get it done by my bday.

[caulfield12]

46 minutes ago, fathom said:

Knebel likely being brought in to set-up.  Also opens up the Dodgers. 

Treinen, Graterol and probably Jansen back.

Someone will try out Joe Kelly as a closer, so another landing spot for Kimbrel off the board. Wouldn't be shocked to see Iglesias back with LAA.

[GreenSox]

On 11/28/2021 at 5:23 AM, caulfield12 said:

Realistically, they could use Kimbrel AND Vaughn, but then who would the White Sox be going after beyond Segura?  Obviously not Wheeler, Realmuto or Harper…and trading Nola at a discount doesn’t make much sense either, because you just opened up another hole in their rotation.

Kimbrel for Zach Eflin. 
Kimbrel for Segura would be a lazy move and a  major fail.
If they trade Vaughn (or Crochet or Sheets) they better get a young player; these self-serving trades take their toll.

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Kimbrel for Zach Eflin. 
Kimbrel for Segura would be a lazy move and a  major fail.
If they trade Vaughn (or Crochet or Sheets) they better get a young player; these self-serving trades take their toll.

Eflin has averaged 1.875 fWAR for the last four seasons...they're not just going to give him away for free.

Only one year remaining before FA, projected to get $5.5 million.

[rockren]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Eflin has averaged 1.875 fWAR for the last four seasons...they're not just going to give him away for free.

Only one year remaining before FA, projected to get $5.5 million.

Agreed.  Eflin would be a coup, but it isn't happening.

[PitchatRisktoZisk]

The trade that brought Kimbrel here in July continues to f up our team. Gave away Madrigal and Heuer, saw Kimbrel implode as most of us knew he would. Now we pick up the option to trade or salvage some face thinking he can be productive. We can't give him away and teams know we're screwed. Eventually, we'll either have $16 million tied up in a bad reliever or trade him for a bucket of balls...... and likely still pay the majority of his contract. The albatross kept us from being more aggressive before the lockout as JR tells RH to go shop in the bargain basement aisle. Get ready for Romy at 2nd and Vaughn in RF. These guys are f'ing up the entire championship window. 

[hi8is]

3 minutes ago, PitchatRisktoZisk said:

The trade that brought Kimbrel here in July continues to f up our team. Gave away Madrigal and Heuer, saw Kimbrel implode as most of us knew he would. Now we pick up the option to trade or salvage some face thinking he can be productive. We can't give him away and teams know we're screwed. Eventually, we'll either have $16 million tied up in a bad reliever or trade him for a bucket of balls...... and likely still pay the majority of his contract. The albatross kept us from being more aggressive before the lockout as JR tells RH to go shop in the bargain basement aisle. Get ready for Romy at 2nd and Vaughn in RF. These guys are f'ing up the entire championship window. 

There’s a picture of an illustrated chicken for you to find in another thread. That said, I totally agree about the trade… but that horse has been beaten bloody already a few times over.

[oldsox]

About mid=season next year, someone will write a story about the most overpaid players in MLB, and Kimbrel we be very close to the top of that list.

[hogan873]

2 minutes ago, oldsox said:

About mid=season next year, someone will write a story about the most overpaid players in MLB, and Kimbrel we be very close to the top of that list.

If he can go somewhere and be a closer, my guess is that he'll rebound and be worth what he's getting paid.  As a floundering set-up man, he'll be way overpaid.  I just don't see how he's not traded.

[GreenSox]

15 hours ago, PitchatRisktoZisk said:

The trade that brought Kimbrel here in July continues to f up our team. Gave away Madrigal and Heuer, saw Kimbrel implode as most of us knew he would.

This is hardly the first time for this FO giving away young players for dimes on the dollar. And never for a compelling reason or high upside. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by GreenSox

[striker]

With Inglesias signing, the demand for Kimbrel will have gone up and makes him look like his cost and value are aligned.

With Hernandez signing for $4m and his production close to matching Segura's, that makes Segura's cost about $8m over value.

I've seen rumors of Marlin's interest as well.

Thoughts?

[hogan873]

11 minutes ago, striker said:

With Inglesias signing, the demand for Kimbrel will have gone up and makes him look like his cost and value are aligned.

With Hernandez signing for $4m and his production close to matching Segura's, that makes Segura's cost about $8m over value.

I've seen rumors of Marlin's interest as well.

Thoughts?

Segura is better than Hernandez.  Not $10 million better, but he's been much more valuable over the years.  His WAR is 14 better than Cesar's with about 1000 more plate appearances.

I'd be okay with a Kimbrel for Segura swap.  Not the perfect fit, but he'd definitely fill the hole at 2B well enough.

[striker]

7 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Segura is better than Hernandez.  Not $10 million better, but he's been much more valuable over the years.  His WAR is 14 better than Cesar's with about 1000 more plate appearances.

I'd be okay with a Kimbrel for Segura swap.  Not the perfect fit, but he'd definitely fill the hole at 2B well enough.

I'd take that too but I want a prospect (Marchan?) and maybe $2m. Then with the 6m cash savings (16m - 12m + 2m cash), you sign Tepera. So you turn Kimbrel into your 2B, backup C and another reliever.

[Bob Sacamano]

While I am good with Segura at this point, I'm just not sure why the Phillies have to send more back for Kimbrel unless it is a bigger deal or we are sending cash. Just my 2 cents.

[hogan873]

13 minutes ago, striker said:

I'd take that too but I want a prospect (Marchan?) and maybe $2m. Then with the 6m cash savings (16m - 12m + 2m cash), you sign Tepera. So you turn Kimbrel into your 2B, backup C and another reliever.

That would make sense.  And maybe that is what they're aiming to do.  I think if the Sox offered the Kimbrel/Segura swap, the Phillies may have already agreed to that.  Regardless, I don't see Kimbrel being a part of the 2022 Sox.