Conforto rejects QO, enters free agency

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes and my point is you can build around offense or defense.   Engel has elite defense and speed...he was hurt this past year...if we want defense first and save money for Semiens...why not just him instead of $100 million to Conforto?   Or you could just use Vaughn and deal with his defensive learning curve. 

 

 

Because Conforto is elite against RHP.  That hitting ability and average defense ranked him as the 9th most valuable OF from 2017 to 2020.  I’m really not sure what your beef is with Conforto or why you’re assuming he gets $100M.  Care to elaborate?

As for Engel, he has never once shown he can withstand the rigors of a full season, so he should not be in consideration for an everyday role.  And for the record, I’d love to have Semien, but I don’t think paying him SS money to play 2B is the best uses of our limited resources and I think Conforto better balances the offense for much less.  Either way, I’d be ecstatic with us adding another impact player regardless of position.

[poppysox]

25 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sure I like semien. I don’t really understand these weird binaries people are setting up to win arguments. I just think Conforto is a good player that balances our lineup and plays good defense and sheets could play DH.

If we want to sign an MVP type 2b that is also nice.

Unless money is not going to be a factor this year...we just may need to decide where our available funds are best spent.  I think 2nd base wins that argument over RF since Vaughn and Sheets need to be played somewhere.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, poppysox said:

Unless money is not going to be a factor this year...we just may need to decide where our available funds are best spent.  I think 2nd base wins that argument over RF since Vaughn and Sheets need to be played somewhere.

Cool, enjoy Freddy Galvis.

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

A combined .875 OPS is a lot to ask for. It also ignores all the added stress the outfield puts on the pitchers in the regular season and in the postseason. Good pitching beats good hitting, and I don't want this OF giving any extra outs in the playoffs. Your pitching staff gets pushed to the absolute limit in the playoffs. Those extra outs are brutal. 

 

42 minutes ago, ron883 said:

The guy is an annual 4 WAR player. He's also being compared to Sheets and Vaughn defensively. 

So is Grandal, but the board has a problem with Grandal. 

[SonofaRoache]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

 

So is Grandal, but the board has a problem with Grandal. 

There is nothing wrong with Grandal when he hits for power and walks. If he is not hitting, it is a problem. We need a upgrade at 2nd and RF. Conforto is an upgrade but should be signed if we get a big fish at second. But we don't have that type of money apparently, so he may be the big signing. 

[ron883]

Let's put it this way; I feel much more confident about adding a quality 2B at the deadline than I do about adding a quality RFer at the deadline. There's typically guys like Eduardo Escobar that you can add for cheap (Sox fucked this up of course). There aren't as many quality RFers out there now or during the deadline. Add a RFer now, and trade for a 2B now or before the deadline.

[ron883]

12 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

 

So is Grandal, but the board has a problem with Grandal. 

I don't care what this board thinks of Grandal. Catcher is a unique position anyway. Conforto brings balance to the lineup and defense at a position this team can never seem to fill lately. 

[hi8is]

I miss baseball already. How sad is that?

[bmags]

uh oh too many people stated the opinion that Michael Conforto seemed like a good fit and was a free agent so Dick Allen needs to make sure to overstate their opinions and remind us that he's not actually a savior and we are all thankful.

[Dick Allen]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

uh oh too many people stated the opinion that Michael Conforto seemed like a good fit and was a free agent so Dick Allen needs to make sure to overstate their opinions and remind us that he's not actually a savior and we are all thankful.

OK.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

14 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Let's put it this way; I feel much more confident about adding a quality 2B at the deadline than I do about adding a quality RFer at the deadline. There's typically guys like Eduardo Escobar that you can add for cheap (Sox fucked this up of course). There aren't as many quality RFers out there now or during the deadline. Add a RFer now, and trade for a 2B now or before the deadline.

I was told that adding an expensive closer at the TDL was going to solve the vs RHP issue in the lineup and the gaping holes in RF and 2nd Base.

So no, adding an expensive closer as your centerpiece addition, if in fact this was true, then the SOX were right in their decision-making. Adding an aging 2B whose numbers were ripe for regression was the icing on the cake, amirite?

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I was told that adding an expensive closer at the TDL was going to solve the vs RHP issue in the lineup and the gaping holes in RF and 2nd Base.

So no, adding an expensive closer as your centerpiece addition, if in fact this was true, then the SOX were right in their decision-making. Adding an aging 2B whose numbers were ripe for regression was the icing on the cake, amirite?

I would imagine if the Sox were not thinking big at 2B, they would have just exercised Cesar's option.

[hi8is]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I would imagine if the Sox were not thinking big at 2B, they would have just exercised Cesar's option.

They’re going to have Frank Thomas come out of retirement, hit left handed, and be the second baseman. Book it.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

I would imagine if the Sox were not thinking big at 2B, they would have just exercised Cesar's option.

I think that they recognize players at his position, at his age, and at the ~2-ish fWAR level are more commonly available than they realized before the stupid trade.

I also think that they finally recognized that Cesar is/was in age-related decline; they should have been able to have seen that beforehand. Oh well.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think that they recognize players at his position, at his age, and at the ~2-ish fWAR level are more commonly available than they realized before the stupid trade.

I also think that they finally recognized that Cesar is/was in age-related decline; they should have been able to have seen that beforehand. Oh well.

What suggested he was in decline before the trade?  The career high 18 bombs he hit with the Indians?  I’d love to hear what these indicators were since you seem to think Hahn acquiring a consistent 2.0 to 2.5 2B was somehow idiotic for obvious reasons.

[Two-Gun Pete]

28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

1. What suggested he was in decline before the trade?  

2. The career high 18 bombs he hit with the Indians?  

3. I’d love to hear what these indicators were since you seem to think Hahn acquiring a consistent 2.0 to 2.5 2B was somehow idiotic for obvious reasons.

1. Let's look at the numbers: wrc+ has declined un every year since 2017, with a hiccup upwards in the short 2020 season.

2. This is the very definition of being ripe for regression. When a player is doing something that is SO far off his career norms in the 1st half, regression is often the outcome in the second half. Hed never hit as many HR as he did in the 1st half. Why should you disbelieve the entirety of his career in place of a one time anomaly? (Buying a career anomaly is how you make mistakes in the trade market.)

3. Again, WRC+ for Cesar Hernandez, by year, from the link above:

2017: 111

2018: 100

2019: 91

2020 shortened season: 112

2021: 90

Over the timeframe of 2017-2021, thats a 19% declination in WRC+. Ya don't need some crazy regression analysis to have seen this coming.

Hernandez is and has been in decline on a year-over-year basis. His half-to-half splits in 2021 were ripe for regression as well.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Let's look at the numbers: wrc+ has declined un every year since 2017, with a hiccup upwards in the short 2020 season.

2. This is the very definition of being ripe for regression. When a player is doing something that is SO far off his career norms in the 1st half, regression is often the outcome in the second half. Hed never hit as many HR as he did in the 1st half. Why should you disbelieve the entirety of his career in place of a one time anomaly? (Buying a career anomaly is how you make mistakes in the trade market.)

3. Again, WRC+ for Cesar Hernandez, by year, from the link above:

2017: 111

2018: 100

2019: 91

2020 shortened season: 112

2021: 90

Hernandez is and has been in decline on a year-over-year basis. His half-to-half splits in 2021 were ripe for regression as well.

The dude didn’t have a 90 wRC+ when we got him, so a bit odd you’re using that as proof of obvious age based decline.  However, from 2020 to 2021 in 691 PAs with the Indians, the dude had a 105 wRC+.  Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100.  Combine that with defense that showed no signs of deterioration over the past couple years and I’m struggling to see this obvious age based decline.  I am seeing some year to year volatility which is normal for most players.

[Two-Gun Pete]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The dude didn’t have a 90 wRC+ when we got him, so a bit odd you’re using that as proof of obvious age based decline.  However, from 2020 to 2021 in 691 PAs with the Indians, the dude had a 105 wRC+.  Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100.  Combine that with defense that showed no signs of deterioration over the past couple years and I’m struggling to see this obvious age based decline.  I am seeing some year to year volatility which is normal for most players.

Dude, you're really contorting yourself to justify this. Picking nits isn't really that efficient, in all honesty. Its a straight-line 19% declination in WRC+ for Hernandez over a 4 season trend. Ya don't need calculus, or regression analysis to have seen this coming.

 

And yes, even if you wanna go all "SSS," and pick at Hernandez's 1st half WRC+ numbers, he was at a 96 at the 1st half. But noting that this came with a career anomaly in HR should have raised alarms in terms of what to expect from him. 

EDIT: I also looked at the splits vs RHP as well:

Hernandez: 83

Leury: 101

Escobar: 98

 

Not only is/was Cesar clearly in decline, but he actually made the lineup WORSE vs our lineup's kryptonite vs RHP.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Dude, you're really contorting yourself to justify this. Picking nits isn't really that efficient, in all honesty. Its a straight-line 19% declination in WRC+ for Hernandez over a 4 season trend. Ya don't need calculus, or regression analysis to have seen this coming.

 

And yes, even if you wanna go all "SSS," and pick at Hernandez's 1st half WRC+ numbers, he was at a 96 at the 1st half. But noting that this came with a career anomaly in HR should have raised alarms in terms of what to expect from him. 

What am I justifying?  I wanted Eduardo Escobar at the deadline.  I’m just disagreeing with your notion that he was in obvious decline because I don’t think it’s true.  And using a ~700 plate appearance period is not a SSS.

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What am I justifying?  I wanted Eduardo Escobar at the deadline.  I’m just disagreeing with your notion that he was in obvious decline because I don’t think it’s true.  And using a ~700 plate appearance period is not a SSS.

Look, cutting up segments to contort your argument to support a signing that neither of us wanted isn't a good look. He was in decline, and his 1st half WRC+ #s were artificially  inflated by a career anomaly in HRs.

And as I just edited my previous post, Cesar was worse than Escobar and worse than Leury vs RHP. He ACTIVELY made our lineup's handedness weakness even weaker.

This move looks worse and worse the more you study it. RH made the lineup WORSE, gave a division enemy a free asset, while taking some salary burden off Cleveland, and made it LESS likely that this team was going to win in 2021 and 2022.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Look, cutting up segments to contort your argument to support a signing that neither of us wanted isn't a good look.

And as I just edited my previous post, Cesar was worse than Escobar and worse than Leury vs RHP. He ACTIVELY made our lineup's handedness weakness even weaker. This move looks worse and worse the more you study it.

How am cutting up segments?  You ignored two years that broke your downward trend (plus didn’t consider defense), whereas I compared his previous 12 months prior to the acquisition to the three years preceding it to prove there wasn’t obvious age decline.  Ultimately none of this matters, I just don’t like when people rip Hahn for things that aren’t true when there is more than enough actual shit to that he should be ripped for.

[Two-Gun Pete]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

1. How am cutting up segments?

2.  I just don’t like when people rip Hahn for things that aren’t true when there is more than enough actual shit to that he should be ripped for.

1. Copy/pasted from your previous post: 

..."However, from 2020 to 2021..."

"...Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100...." 

Anyone can justify anything, if you cut up trends into nice segments. Hernandez was in a clear, straight-line decline of 19% over the 2017-2021 time frame, full stop.

And, if you want to "credit" Hernandez for having an awesome 1st half WRC+ of 96, you also have to admit that that came alongside a career anomaly in HR in the 1st half. The anomalous 1st half HR numbers made the 1st half WRC+ artificially inflated, and ripe for regression.

 

2. RH deserves TONS of disrespect for this move. The team needed someone to stand at 2B, but the LINEUP needed effectiveness vs RHP. Let's review the WRC+ splits vs RHP for some notable 2B from 2021:

Cesar Hernandez: 83

Eduardo Escobar: 98

Leury Garcia: 101

Danny Mendick: 77

We could also go over the WAR numbers, but suffice it to say that Cesar had a negative number while in Chicago.

See, if you're going to be fair, you can't just fall all over yourself to give RH plaudits at every turn. You ALSO have to give him critique when it is/was warranted. His TDL made the 2021 team WORSE, while fucking up the financial flexibility going forward.

The org would have been better off had they done nothing at the TDL. 

Edited November 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Cool, enjoy Freddy Galvis.

Good pick...another defensive specialist so sought after around here.

[Snopek]

24 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Copy/pasted from your previous post: 

..."However, from 2020 to 2021..."

"...Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100...." 

Anyone can justify anything, if you cut up trends into nice segments. Hernandez was in a clear, straight-line decline of 19% over the 2017-2021 time frame, full stop.

And, if you want to "credit" Hernandez for having an awesome 1st half WRC+ of 96, you also have to admit that that came alongside a career anomaly in HR in the 1st half. The anomalous 1st half HR numbers made the 1st half WRC+ artificially inflated, and ripe for regression.

 

2. RH deserves TONS of disrespect for this move. The team needed someone to stand at 2B, but the LINEUP needed effectiveness vs RHP. Let's review the WRC+ splits vs RHP for some notable 2B from 2021:

Cesar Hernandez: 83

Eduardo Escobar: 98

Leury Garcia: 101

Danny Mendick: 77

We could also go over the WAR numbers, but suffice it to say that Cesar had a negative number while in Chicago.

See, if you're going to be fair, you can't just fall all over yourself to give RH plaudits at every turn. You ALSO have to give him critique when it is/was warranted. His TDL made the 2021 team WORSE, while fucking up the financial flexibility going forward.

The org would have been better off had they done nothing at the TDL. 

It’d be neat if being a GM was as easy as you make it seem.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Snopek said:

It’d be neat if being a GM was as easy as you make it seem.

I know, right? These numbers were just "so hard to find," amirite?