Conforto rejects QO, enters free agency

[Two-Gun Pete]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why do the 2020 at-bats not count at all?  

Look, I’m not trying to make this personal.  I enjoy your posts and your general point of view of things, but I fully disagree with your take here.  I just don’t see how anyone could say he was in massive decline and a fall-off was imminent.

The 2020 season featured 60 games, due to Covid. To limit travel, 40 games were played against division opponents, 10 vs each of the 4 division foes in 3 unbalanced series.

So, Cleveland got 10 stat-padding games vs Detroit, and 10 free games vs KC. And yes, there were 20 tough games vs our SOX and Minnesota, but I didn't bother to see if Cleveland had more games at home or on the road.

The other 20 games would be against the NL teams from the same division. So, Cleveland had at least 4 stat padding games vs. Shittsburgh. So, at least 24 of the 60 games were vs ~.400 win % opposition. 

Whats more, back in 2020, with no fans in the stands, going on the road wasn't as much of a challenge as in a "normal year."

 

In sum, it wasn't just the short season, but also, the nature of the season that made 2020 anomalous. 

 

And no, I don't take this personal. So no worries.

[michelangelosmonkey]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What is your expectations for Conferto next year exactly?

I'm not sure what your argument is...let's say his career average of 3.4 WAR.  Can't VAughn do that?  Semien's average WAR is 4.6.  I'd pay a little more for that in a position where we don't have a player nearly as talented as Vaughn is in RF.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm not sure what your argument is...let's say his career average of 3.4 WAR.  Can't VAughn do that?  Semien's average WAR is 4.6.  I'd pay a little more for that in a position where we don't have a player nearly as talented as Vaughn is in RF.

My argument?  I’ve made multiple posts highlighting my position.   And I think a ~3.5 win projection for Conforto is fair, but I do think that would be challenging for Vaughn to meet next year as our RF.  For example, Jorge Soler had to put a 136 wRC+ to overcome his shit defense and put a 3.6 win season.  Maybe Vaughn won’t be quite that bad defensively, but realistically he’s got to be around 125 wRC+ or so to reach that level of production.  That seems like a reach for next year and I would expect to closer to 2 wins as our RF.

[michelangelosmonkey]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

My argument?  I’ve made multiple posts highlighting my position.   And I think a ~3.5 win projection for Conforto is fair, but I do think that would be challenging for Vaughn to meet next year as our RF.  For example, Jorge Soler had to put a 136 wRC+ to overcome his shit defense and put a 3.6 win season.  Maybe Vaughn won’t be quite that bad defensively, but realistically he’s got to be around 125 wRC+ or so to reach that level of production.  That seems like a reach for next year and I would expect to closer to 2 wins as our RF.

There is a lot to like about Conforto and I think it is entirely reasonable to say that Vaughn will only be a 2 WAR guy in RF next year.   But Vaughn costs nothing and Conforto is going to cost $20 million a year.  Meanwhile Semien will put up a 5 WAR and Romy a 1.5 so you get an extra 3.5 WAR for an extra $23 million in salary.  At this point the argument within Sox management is...we have $25 million extra to spend...what puts us over the top.  I'm not going to war with you over Conforto...he's youngish and lefty and pretty good RF.  I'd be OK with that...or with Semien or Robbie Ray...I just would prefer Semien with Vaughn in RF.   It will be fascinating to see what the Sox do (and infuriating if they do nothing).   

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

There is a lot to like about Conforto and I think it is entirely reasonable to say that Vaughn will only be a 2 WAR guy in RF next year.   But Vaughn costs nothing and Conforto is going to cost $20 million a year.  Meanwhile Semien will put up a 5 WAR and Romy a 1.5 so you get an extra 3.5 WAR for an extra $23 million in salary.  At this point the argument within Sox management is...we have $25 million extra to spend...what puts us over the top.  I'm not going to war with you over Conforto...he's youngish and lefty and pretty good RF.  I'd be OK with that...or with Semien or Robbie Ray...I just would prefer Semien with Vaughn in RF.   It will be fascinating to see what the Sox do (and infuriating if they do nothing).   

All I want us to do is add impact talent.  While I prefer Conforto, I’d lose my shit in a good way if we add Semien.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What is your expectations for Conferto next year exactly?

To conform by changing name back to Conforto…or maybe Concerto would break the string of NL position players laying an egg with the Sox.

(Although I’m sure that someone will argue Grandal has been close to great…the general trend over a decade.)

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

All I want us to do is add impact talent.  While I prefer Conforto, I’d lose my shit in a good way if we add Semien.

The only way they would give Semien five years is knowing a TA extension was out of their budget…but then Semien wouldn’t likely be a top flite SS from 2025-26.

Heck, could say the same thing about all the dream/fantasy SS, even Correa and Seager.

[hi8is]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Correa Poop

Fixed.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Fixed.

That’s the true definition of talking shit this offseason, any scenarios with Correa or Seager or even Scherzer to the Sox…

(Although, once every 25 years or so around labor disagreement periods we sign an Albert Belle.)

[hi8is]

23 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That’s the true definition of talking shit this offseason, any scenarios with Correa Poop or Seager or even Scherzer to the Sox…

(Although, once every 25 years or so around labor disagreement periods we sign an Albert Belle.)

There are few other players in the history of the game that I dislike more than that jerk. Despite his output for a team - I wouldn’t allow him to pay the Sox to join our squad.

He should have been banned for life.

[southsider2k5]

18 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, let's give the 60 game 2020 season as much weight as the 2021 season.

Dude was in a clear decline, and he wasn't going to replicate his 1st half numbers. It was bad and dumb to trade for him

 

Except when you are making deadline deals you don't have a full season to look at. You are looking at the partial 20 and 21 seasons at that point. So no, you can't weight the 21 season in this at all, because you were still to play half of it. It's hindsight to pretend that it should apply to the deadline.

[Two-Gun Pete]

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except when you are making deadline deals you don't have a full season to look at. You are looking at the partial 20 and 21 seasons at that point. So no, you can't weight the 21 season in this at all, because you were still to play half of it. It's hindsight to pretend that it should apply to the deadline.

I'll recap yesterday's discussion:

Chicago White Sox was chopping up Hernandez's overall decline from 2017-2021. He attempted to agglomerate 2020 and 2021 together.

However, I pointed out that 40% of Cleveland's games in 2020 were against weak opposition, which certainly made life easier for Hernandez, and inflated that year's numbers. (24/60 =.4; over 162, thats 65 free games against AAA and AAAA turds)

I also noted that the reduced travel further made it easier for an aging player like Hernandez. Lastly, because there were no fans in the stands due to COVID, going on the road was less daunting for visiting players in many regards.

So, on balance, Chicago White Sox wanted to point to an anomalous 2020 season to defend the Hernandez acquisition By contrast, I noted that with veteran players, you've got a body of work, and trends to help make decisions.

Tying this together, RH making a closer his centerpiece acquisition, while adding a token 2 WAR guy was NOT going to enable this team to win anything. There were better options than Hernandez, given a number of factors.

 

But buying an anomaly instead of the back of the baseball card leads a GM to fuck up.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'll recap yesterday's discussion:

Chicago White Sox was chopping up Hernandez's overall decline from 2017-2021. He attempted to agglomerate 2020 and 2021 together.

However, I pointed out that 40% of Cleveland's games in 2020 were against weak opposition, which certainly made life easier for Hernandez, and inflated that year's numbers. (24/60 =.4; over 162, thats 65 free games against AAA and AAAA turds)

I also noted that the reduced travel further made it easier for an aging player like Hernandez. Lastly, because there were no fans in the stands due to COVID, going on the road was less daunting for visiting players in many regards.

So, on balance, Chicago White Sox wanted to point to an anomalous 2020 season to defend the Hernandez acquisition By contrast, I noted that with veteran players, you've got a body of work, and trends to help make decisions.

Tying this together, RH making a closer his centerpiece acquisition, while adding a token 2 WAR guy was NOT going to enable this team to win anything. There were better options than Hernandez, given a number of factors.

 

But buying an anomaly instead of the back of the baseball card leads a GM to fuck up.

But it wasn't.  It was 20 and the 1st half of 21

[Whisox05]

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, aeichhor said:

 

?…controllable starting pitching means Vaughn is as good as gone.  If it’s OAK, then we should be able to get a guy without including Andrew as Bassitt & Manaea both only have one year of control left.  Montas is another option with two years of control, so would be a bit more costly.  I’m open to trading Vaughn for the right piece, but I’d prefer doing so for a positional guy who fills a different need (Reynolds, Lux, etc.).  Trading a talent of his caliber for an arm that could breakdown at any point seems very risky to me.

[southsider2k5]

22 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'll recap yesterday's discussion:

Chicago White Sox was chopping up Hernandez's overall decline from 2017-2021. He attempted to agglomerate 2020 and 2021 together.

However, I pointed out that 40% of Cleveland's games in 2020 were against weak opposition, which certainly made life easier for Hernandez, and inflated that year's numbers. (24/60 =.4; over 162, thats 65 free games against AAA and AAAA turds)

I also noted that the reduced travel further made it easier for an aging player like Hernandez. Lastly, because there were no fans in the stands due to COVID, going on the road was less daunting for visiting players in many regards.

So, on balance, Chicago White Sox wanted to point to an anomalous 2020 season to defend the Hernandez acquisition By contrast, I noted that with veteran players, you've got a body of work, and trends to help make decisions.

Tying this together, RH making a closer his centerpiece acquisition, while adding a token 2 WAR guy was NOT going to enable this team to win anything. There were better options than Hernandez, given a number of factors.

 

But buying an anomaly instead of the back of the baseball card leads a GM to fuck up.

To add to this, the last five years of WAR from the Atlanta Braves OFs that won them a World Series, including that Soler guy you were dropping.

Soler 17 0.2, 18 3.5, 19 0.3, 20 -1.4, 21 1.1

Duvall, 17 2.0, 18 0.8, 19 0.7, 20 1.9, 21 1.2

Joc 17 --0.4, 18 2.2, 19 2.8, 20 -0.3, 21 -0.1

Rosario 17 1.6, 18 4.3, 19 1.5, 20 1.2, 21 1.1

But somehow Atlanta is a genius for trading for all of these guys in super clear high WAR trends in recent years.

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

If we could get Conforto locked up before December 1st that would be amazing.  Even if that’s all we did before a potential lockout, we’d basically have months to plan out our next steps to optimize the roster with Michael in the fold.  But we’d starting from a position of strength with the lineup and have tons of different paths we could down.

[Dick Allen]

26 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

 

Jimmy posts something that suggests the Sox are after Conforto, and bingo the notinsider NotSteve posts somehting similar. But not Steve doesn't look at message boards.

[bmags]

We’re still paying attention to that guy huh.

Remember when the Kimbrel trade was breaking and he made the reasonable guess that Crochet was going back, only to say “Woops sorry! He was discussed but Sox went a different direction’

Among many other (all) posts.

If you guys are desperate, I will post an inspirational Sox are active post each day

[Snopek]

20 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

 

I think the A's and Reds targets are fairly obvious, but I'm curious who is considered most available on the Marlins. No doubt they have a surplus of young pitching, but I'd assume a team like the Sox is looking for someone with a bit of a track record. So that's Alcantara, but it'd be wild if he was traded. Pablo Lopez would be fun. Elieser Hernandez feels like someone that doesn't move the needle enough for a contender. After that, it's a bunch of talented but unproven dudes.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

38 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

 

I really do like the idea of Sonny Gray.  One year on his deal at a reasonable price and should come at a reasonable price.  I wonder if Sheets/Burger + another decent prospect (HS starter?) could get Gray.

[Rey21]

13 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I really do like the idea of Sonny Gray.  One year on his deal at a reasonable price and should come at a reasonable price.  I wonder if Sheets/Burger + another decent prospect (HS starter?) could get Gray.

Think it would cost less, Reds are selling off everything with $$ attached. Thinking younger prospects with more control 

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I really do like the idea of Sonny Gray.  One year on his deal at a reasonable price and should come at a reasonable price.  I wonder if Sheets/Burger + another decent prospect (HS starter?) could get Gray.

Let's take a look into the future:

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

14 minutes ago, Quin said:

Let's take a look into the future:

 

lollll he is unmatched.  

[Quin]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

lollll he is unmatched.  

Take a look at the timestamp my dude.