2022 Offseason Plan Thread

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright guys, I know @bmags may eventually provide a worksheet for this, but I figured it's time to have an official "2022 offseason plan" thread given that free agency has officially begun.  The purpose of this thread is to post your own plan and not necessarily what you think our front office will do.  The only rule I'm setting is you can not go past $185M for 2022 payroll, which is probably pushing the optimistic range to the fullest.  Crazy trades and atypical free agent signings are fine as long as they fit into the total 2022 budget.  Also, feel free to comment on and/or question other people's plan as the goal here is to drive conversation while we actually wait for some action.

Also, below are three helpful links when it comes to payroll figures:

• Free agents: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html
• Arb estimates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html
• MLB salaries: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/base/ (use "Base Salaries" for this exercise")

[hi8is]

Just…

https://soxmachine.com/2021/10/28/the-2021-22-sox-machine-offseason-plan-project/

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, I will go first here.  My plan is pretty straight-forward with three primary objectives:

1. Replace Carlos Rodon with the best long-term starting pitching free agent we can afford
2. Add much needed balance to the lineup while enhancing the defense where possible
3. Improve the right side of our bullpen while also ensuring we have some starting depth

As you'll see below, free agency would center around two free agents.  First, I'd sign Kevin Gausman to replace Rodon.  Total contract here is 5/$138M, which feels low to me but is the figure MLBTradeRumors is predicting.  Second, I'd sign Michael Conforto to a 4/$64M deal to solve RF and add much needed left-handed power to the middle of our lineup.  Almost all of our funds would go to these two moves, but I feel like they address our two biggest needs right off the bat.

After that, we need to address 2B.  This may not be popular, but we have too much redundancy at 1B/DH/LF and I'm going to trade Andrew Vaughn to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux.  I know he's been a disappointment so far, but he's a former 70 grade prospect with excellent tools and grades very well at 2B.  This gives us another left-handed bat, improves our athleticism, and enhances the defense.  Finally on the positional side, I'm going to trade Micker Adolfo and a PTBNL to the Rockies for Elias Diaz to add a defensive minded backup catcher.  This allows us to DH Grandal a bit more, hopefully keeping him healthier and letting Sheets sit against LHP.

Last on the agenda is the bullpen and pitching depth.  The first order of business is freeing up some funds by dumping Dallas Keuchel on the Giants.  To be conservative, I'm assuming we'd have to eat $8M of the $18M he's owed and basically get a C prospect back.  I would then take those savings and sign Collin McHugh to a 2/$11M deal to serve as our second swingman alongside Lopez.  Next on the list is trading Craig Kimbrel to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez, who has the chance to be a highly valuable setup and comes with three years of control.  To cap off the major league bullpen, I'm trading Jake Burger for Cole Susler.  While I'd love to keep Jake, I just feel like we need a legit setup man who is cheap and controllable and Susler fits the bill with four years of control left and a 2022 salary around $600k.  I'd also look to sign someone Julio Teheran to a minor league deal to ensure we have plenty of options to eat innings as injuries occur.

Total payroll comes in just shy of $180M and that includes $8M of dead money.  To me, none of these moves feel unrealistic and I think we've improved all our areas of weakness.  Honestly, I think you could argue this roster would immediately be the best in the AL and every major move would hopefully provide value well beyond the 2022 season.

[South Side Hit Men]

Where are you pulling these "fWAR" estimates? Those are inflated in many instances vs. what I see on Fangraphs. Their Free Agent tracker uses 2022 Steamer projections.

Provide a link if you have one.

Edited November 9, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, South Side Hit Men said:

Where are you pulling these inflated "fWAR" estimates? Those are highly inflated than what I see on Fangraphs.

Provide a link if you have one.

 

 

 

These are my own estimates and many of them will more optimistic than what Steamer’s projecting.  And generally speaking, I find Steamer to be way too conservative on young players, especially with all the noise over the past couple years.  For example, I fully expect Robert to blow his number out of the water (4.7) as he basically put up 3.2 in a half of a season and he’s still not a fully developed product.  Eloy is only projected for 2.4 wins by Steamer, but I think he performs closer to his 2020 rate stats and ends up at around 4.  There is a method to the madness although candidly speaking I don’t actually think that roster would win 110 games.  There is clearly some likely injury impacts and other things that I’m not accounting for, which makes the fWAR total highly optimistic.

[South Side Hit Men]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

These are my own estimates and many of them will more optimistic than what Steamer’s projecting.  And generally speaking, I find Steamer to be way too conservative on young players, especially with all the noise over the past couple years.  For example, I fully expect Robert to blow his number out of the water (4.7) as he basically put up 3.2 in a half of a season and he’s still not a fully developed product.  Eloy is only projected for 2.4 wins by Steamer, but I think he performs closer to his 2020 rate stats and ends up at around 4.  There is a method to the madness although candidly speaking I don’t actually think that roster would win 110 games.  There is clearly some likely injury impacts and other things that I’m not accounting for, which makes the fWAR total highly optimistic.

OK, just wanted to confirm they weren't from a source. For consistent fWAR for comparing plans, picking a single public free source would help better compare plans, IMO. consistent with also using the same salary info.

I did a rough quick estimate earlier, will do another using Fangraphs FA tracker (contract and fWAR) and MLB trade rumor arbitration estimates once the remaining QO player responses are filed later this month, if they update before the Owner Lockout.

Was encouraged by the article Miami is looking to trade controllable top pitching, will definitely be somewhere I, and more importantly hopefully the White Sox, will seriously consider.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, I will go first here.  My plan is pretty straight-forward with three primary objectives:

1. Replace Carlos Rodon with the best long-term starting pitching free agent we can afford
2. Add much needed balance to the lineup while enhancing the defense where possible
3. Improve the right side of our bullpen while also ensuring we have some starting depth

As you'll see below, free agency would center around two free agents.  First, I'd sign Kevin Gausman to replace Rodon.  Total contract here is 5/$138M, which feels low to me but is the figure MLBTradeRumors is predicting.  Second, I'd sign Michael Conforto to a 4/$64M deal to solve RF and add much needed left-handed power to the middle of our lineup.  Almost all of our funds would go to these two moves, but I feel like they address our two biggest needs right off the bat.

After that, we need to address 2B.  This may not be popular, but we have too much redundancy at 1B/DH/LF and I'm going to trade Andrew Vaughn to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux.  I know he's been a disappointment so far, but he's a former 70 grade prospect with excellent tools and grades very well at 2B.  This gives us another left-handed bat, improves our athleticism, and enhances the defense.  Finally on the positional side, I'm going to trade Micker Adolfo and a PTBNL to the Rockies for Elias Diaz to add a defensive minded backup catcher.  This allows us to DH Grandal a bit more, hopefully keeping him healthier and letting Sheets sit against LHP.

Last on the agenda is the bullpen and pitching depth.  The first order of business is freeing up some funds by dumping Dallas Keuchel on the Giants.  To be conservative, I'm assuming we'd have to eat $8M of the $18M he's owed and basically get a C prospect back.  I would then take those savings and sign Collin McHugh to a 2/$11M deal to serve as our second swingman alongside Lopez.  Next on the list is trading Craig Kimbrel to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez, who has the chance to be a highly valuable setup and comes with three years of control.  To cap off the major league bullpen, I'm trading Jake Burger for Cole Susler.  While I'd love to keep Jake, I just feel like we need a legit setup man who is cheap and controllable and Susler fits the bill with four years of control left and a 2022 salary around $600k.  I'd also look to sign someone Julio Teheran to a minor league deal to ensure we have plenty of options to eat innings as injuries occur.

Total payroll comes in just shy of $180M and that includes $8M of dead money.  To me, none of these moves feel unrealistic and I think we've improved all our areas of weakness.  Honestly, I think you could argue this roster would immediately be the best in the AL and every major move would hopefully provide value well beyond the 2022 season.

With Seager likely gone and limited control over Turner, the Dodgers might be better served holding onto Lux.

They also have Muncy and Bellinger, to name two, for 1B.

 

I might be tempted to go Taylor or J.Baez over the Conforto move to provide more positional versatility.  There are obvious erratic offense issues, and particularly RHedness issues, as well as tons of K’s, too.  Conforto’s younger than Taylor by at least two years.

Gausman will be a priority for SFG to bring back, considering they’re likely losing DeScalafini and Wood…and that’s a huge amount of risk for an outside pitcher considering we won’t even give that deal to our “own” Lucas Giolito.  That said, they almost have to swing for the fences bringing in another starter to bolster the rotation.

I just don’t think JR wants to commit to those kinds of long-term pitching contracts that go beyond the 2023 season…certainly not past 2024, which could be Tim Anderson’s last White Sox season. (Giolito and Lynn both could/would be gone after 2023, along with Grandal and Abreu.)   That will definitely be a crossroads season for determining if the window can successfully be sustained.

Moncada, for example, will be $13 (2020) & $17 million through 2023, then exploding to $24 and $25 million in 2024/25 (option years).

Unless he’s putting up 2019 numbers the next two seasons, he’s not worth that kind of salary unless we are willing to run $200+  million budgets over those seasons.

Edited November 9, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

With Seager likely gone and limited control over Turner, the Dodgers might be better served holding onto Lux.

They also have Muncy and Bellinger, to name two, for 1B.

 

I might be tempted to go Taylor or J.Baez over the Conforto move to provide more positional versatility.  There are obvious erratic offense issues, and particularly RHedness issues, as well as tons of K’s, too.  Conforto’s younger than Taylor by at least two years.

Gausman will be a priority for SFG to bring back, considering they’re likely losing DeScalafini and Wood…and that’s a huge amount of risk for an outside pitcher considering we won’t even give that deal to our “own” Lucas Giolito.  That said, they almost have to swing for the fences bringing in another starter to bolster the rotation.

I just don’t think JR wants to commit to those kinds of long-term pitching contracts that go beyond the 2023 season…certainly not past 2024, which could be Tim Anderson’s last White Sox season. (Giolito and Lynn both could/would be gone after 2023, along with Grandal and Abreu.)   That will definitely be a crossroads season for determining if the window can successfully be sustained.

Moncada, for example, will be $13 (2020) & $17 million through 2023, then exploding to $24 and $25 million in 2024/25 (option years).

Unless he’s putting up 2019 numbers the next two seasons, he’s not worth that kind of salary unless we are willing to run $200+  million budgets over those seasons.

Obviously I can’t say with certainty that the Dodgers would take Vaughn, but I also think he fits very well on their roster as a LF/1B hybrid (and his value would increase to them with a universal DH).  That being said, I actually think it’s a trade both sides might be interested in though, especially if the Dodgers are concerned about Lux’s versatility / ability to cover SS.

I honestly don’t buy the concept that Reinsdorf is unwilling to commit dollars beyond the 2023 or 2024 for a starting pitcher.  Hahn specifically mentioned in his ESPN 100 interview that a TOR of the rotation starter is something they’d be looking at.  Going into next year with Kopech & Keuchel as your #4 & #5 is simply not good enough IMO.  They need to add a starter and an impactful one at that.  If the years are a concern, then pivot to someone like Verlander.

As for the ability to “sustain” the window after 2024, that will come down to what in-house options we can develop over the coming years.  We should get some salary relief once Abreu, Grandal, Lynn, & Hendriks come off the books, but it will important for several of the Montgomery, Kath, Rodriguez, Ramos, Cespedes, & Colas group on the positional side and several of the Vera, Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, McDougal, & Burke group to develop into legitimate contributors.  If that next wave of talent fails, then sustained success will be nearly impossible.  But right now I’m focused on optimizing my chances to win a World Series in the next three years and I think these moves do that.

[ChiSox59]

• Sign Conforto (4 years; $70M)
• Trade Keuchel + Burger for Tommy La Stella (stealing La Stella idea from @Chicago White Sox),
• Re-sign Leury (2 years; $8M); LaStella may not be ready for ST and TLR loves him some Larry;
• All you can eat AAAA trade: Zack Collins, Micker Adolfo and Blake Rutherford to PIT for Jacob Stallings (all those guys get a chance with a bad club that can give them the chances)
• Trade Kimbrel to Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez and Mickey Moniak (Phils eat whole bill; Moniak just AAAA insurance and likely nothingburger)
• Re-sign Ryan Tepera (2 years; $15M) 
• Sign Chris Archer (1 year; $7.5M full of incentives)
• Sign Jose Quintana to minor league deal

Roll up your sleeves and going to work with one of the best rosters in the game.  Payroll in this scenario is in the low-$180M, which frankly is about as low as it can realistically be if Sox are serious. 

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

• Sign Conforto (4 years; $70M)
• Trade Keuchel + Burger for Tommy La Stella (stealing La Stella idea from @Chicago White Sox),
• Re-sign Leury (2 years; $8M); LaStella may not be ready for ST and TLR loves him some Larry;
• All you can eat AAAA trade: Zack Collins, Micker Adolfo and Blake Rutherford to PIT for Jacob Stallings (all those guys get a chance with a bad club that can give them the chances)
• Trade Kimbrel to Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez and Mickey Moniak (Phils eat whole bill; Moniak just AAAA insurance and likely nothingburger)
• Re-sign Ryan Tepera (2 years; $15M) 
• Sign Chris Archer (1 year; $7.5M full of incentives)
• Sign Jose Quintana to minor league deal

Roll up your sleeves and going to work with one of the best rosters in the game.  Payroll in this scenario is in the low-$180M, which frankly is about as low as it can realistically be if Sox are serious. 

I like pretty much all these moves, but the only concern I’d have is the rotation.  Is Archer the #5 starter?  I just worry we’re an injury away to a starter from serious problems, even with Quintana on a minor league deal.

[ChiSox59]

32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I like pretty much all these moves, but the only concern I’d have is the rotation.  Is Archer the #5 starter?  I just worry we’re an injury away to a starter from serious problems, even with Quintana on a minor league deal.

Yeah, its a concern.  I'd love to bring in a legit SP too, just don't think its realistic to plug every hole.  Between Archer, Quintana, Lambert, Stiever and McClure they can hold down the #5 spot and see if anyone is worthy and if not make a move in June.    Between the latter 3 mentioned above, these guys aren't getting any younger and we're pretty much at sink or swim time.  You also have Lopez would could factor in and perhaps Crochet in the 2nd half.  So there are options. 

The non-tender deadline should unearth a few more cheap options in FA, so I reserve my right to adjust the Archer pick for #5 spot until then.  But I just don't think Conforto + top end SP is happening.  And I really, really, really, really do not want to trade Vaughn.  Or Eloy.  I would, however, trade some our HS pitching prospects if any of them have any value left to get back a solid innings eater type in last year or two of arb.  But Kelley, Thompson and Dalquist all sucked in 2021, so not holding my breath. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by ChiSox59

[bmags]

I will try to do the roster resource this weekend. I like it because I have trouble doing the money stuff easily, drives me crazy.

[Dam8610]

What does the market for Clayton Kershaw look like?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, I will go first here.  My plan is pretty straight-forward with three primary objectives:

1. Replace Carlos Rodon with the best long-term starting pitching free agent we can afford
2. Add much needed balance to the lineup while enhancing the defense where possible
3. Improve the right side of our bullpen while also ensuring we have some starting depth

As you'll see below, free agency would center around two free agents.  First, I'd sign Kevin Gausman to replace Rodon.  Total contract here is 5/$138M, which feels low to me but is the figure MLBTradeRumors is predicting.  Second, I'd sign Michael Conforto to a 4/$64M deal to solve RF and add much needed left-handed power to the middle of our lineup.  Almost all of our funds would go to these two moves, but I feel like they address our two biggest needs right off the bat.

After that, we need to address 2B.  This may not be popular, but we have too much redundancy at 1B/DH/LF and I'm going to trade Andrew Vaughn to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux.  I know he's been a disappointment so far, but he's a former 70 grade prospect with excellent tools and grades very well at 2B.  This gives us another left-handed bat, improves our athleticism, and enhances the defense.  Finally on the positional side, I'm going to trade Micker Adolfo and a PTBNL to the Rockies for Elias Diaz to add a defensive minded backup catcher.  This allows us to DH Grandal a bit more, hopefully keeping him healthier and letting Sheets sit against LHP.

Last on the agenda is the bullpen and pitching depth.  The first order of business is freeing up some funds by dumping Dallas Keuchel on the Giants.  To be conservative, I'm assuming we'd have to eat $8M of the $18M he's owed and basically get a C prospect back.  I would then take those savings and sign Collin McHugh to a 2/$11M deal to serve as our second swingman alongside Lopez.  Next on the list is trading Craig Kimbrel to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez, who has the chance to be a highly valuable setup and comes with three years of control.  To cap off the major league bullpen, I'm trading Jake Burger for Cole Susler.  While I'd love to keep Jake, I just feel like we need a legit setup man who is cheap and controllable and Susler fits the bill with four years of control left and a 2022 salary around $600k.  I'd also look to sign someone Julio Teheran to a minor league deal to ensure we have plenty of options to eat innings as injuries occur.

Total payroll comes in just shy of $180M and that includes $8M of dead money.  To me, none of these moves feel unrealistic and I think we've improved all our areas of weakness.  Honestly, I think you could argue this roster would immediately be the best in the AL and every major move would hopefully provide value well beyond the 2022 season.

Whoever gives Gausman that contract should get fired.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

21 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

What does the market for Clayton Kershaw look like?

I am a fan of the aging vet SP signing.  Scherzer, Kershaw or Verlander all make a lot of sense to me.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Whoever gives Gausman that contract should get fired.

What’s your beef with Gausman and what you do instead to address the rotation?

[ChiSox59]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What’s your beef with Gausman and what you do instead to address the rotation?

I'd rather roll with what we have 100x over as opposed to handing Gausman $28M AAV over 5 years.  That deal would be atrociously bad for whoever hands it out.  

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What’s your beef with Gausman and what you do instead to address the rotation?

I don't have beef with him.. He just isn't a 138 million guy.. I'd be nervous giving him half of that.

Edited November 9, 2021 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[FoxForce2]

Sox = Stroman and/or Matz. And I like this option - for '22-23 anyway.

[South Side Hit Men]

People should also factor the Sox 2023 commitments in terms of FA or trade returns salaries beyond this season.

Looking at over $115M for nine guys in 2023:

• Lynn $18.5M
• Grandal $18.3M
• Moncada $17.8M
• Hendriks $14.3M
• Anderson $12.5M (or $1M buy-out)
• Jimenez $10.3M
• Giolito $10.0M (Arb estimate)
• Robert $9.5M
• Bummer $3.8M

This doesn't include a likely Abreu return in the $16M-$20M 1-2 year range, and also doesn't include Keuchel vesting at $20M, so likely $135M (Abreu + Keuchel Buyout), or $155M if Keuchel bounces back and hits 160 IP.

That's why it's unlikely they are picking up high priced FAs this season, any additions will be either via trade or shopping in the Aldi / Butera Free Agency section.

 

[Flash]

5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

People should also factor the Sox 2023 commitments in terms of FA or trade returns salaries beyond this season.

Looking at over $115M for nine guys in 2023:

• Lynn $18.5M
• Grandal $18.3M
• Moncada $17.8M
• Hendriks $14.3M
• Anderson $12.5M (or $1M buy-out)
• Jimenez $10.3M
• Giolito $10.0M (Arb estimate)
• Robert $9.5M
• Bummer $3.8M

This doesn't include a likely Abreu return in the $16M-$20M 1-2 year range, and also doesn't include Keuchel vesting at $20M, so likely $135M (Abreu + Keuchel Buyout), or $155M if Keuchel bounces back and hits 160 IP.

That's why it's unlikely they are picking up high priced FAs this season, any additions will be either via trade or shopping in the Aldi / Butera Free Agency section.

 

Good point although it doesn't rule out trading for guys with 1 year left. Didi and Gallo come to mind.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'd rather roll with what we have 100x over as opposed to handing Gausman $28M AAV over 5 years.  That deal would be atrociously bad for whoever hands it out.  

Whoops, it’s technically meant to be a 6/$138M deal, which would be a $23M AAV.  Just typed in the wrong footnote, although I’m guessing that doesn’t change your view on the deal.

Can I ask why you don’t like a guy coming off a 4.8 win season and also looked really damn good in 2020 (partial season mind you)?

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I don't have beef with him.. He just isn't a 138 million guy.. I'd be nervous giving him half of that.

I think you need to reset your expectations on what a “138 million guy is”.  Gausman is coming off a 4.8 win season, which ranked eight overall last year amongst qualified starters.  Wheeler got 5/$125M coming off very similar production two years ago.  A guy with a better track record in Strasburg got a 7/$245M contract last offseason.  Top of the rotation starters are very expensive.  Six years at $23M AAV is a pretty fair deal all things considered.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you need to reset your expectations on what a “138 million guy is”.  Gausman is coming off a 4.8 win season, which ranked eight overall last year amongst qualified starters.  Wheeler got 5/$125M coming off very similar production two years ago.  A guy with a better track record in Strasburg got a 7/$245M contract last offseason.  Top of the rotation starters are very expensive.  Six years at $23M AAV is a pretty fair deal all things considered.

Depends if you're as confident in Katz as the Giants were with their staff evaluating guys like Gausman, DeSclafini and Alex Wood.

The obvious point there is not to buy at peak, but to take undervalued or overlooked buy low guys and turn them into assets for your team, like Rodon and Lynn this season.

The bigger point is they all become much higher risks near $20 million, with just 2-3 exploding deals capable of sinking the team if you hit those potholes.  And we don't have the farm system depth on the pitching side to cover for them like on the position player side of things.

Edited November 9, 2021 by caulfield12

[bmags]

Where did Katz come from? Can’t remember…