2022 Offseason Plan Thread

[EloyJenkins]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Again, we didn't watch the same teams if you watched this in July and thought this is going to win in the playoffs

The set up men were TERRIBLE.

 

Agreed. Kimbrel was brought in to shield the fact that they made a terrible decision with Kopech, Bummer can't handle pitching into shifts (or TLR can't set up the defense to benefit his immense GB rate), and Heuer and Foster both were bad in their sophomore attempts at capturing the Set up role. Tepera was a great pickup, but they still felt it wasn't quite enough. Were they wrong, probably...but when your starters only go 3-5 innings in the playoffs...you needed a nails bullpen. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by EloyJenkins

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’m convinced you didn’t watch this team last year. Hendriks and Kopech were the only relievers TLR could trust for a long time before the Kimbrel trade was made. Trading for Kimbrel specifically obviously looks like a bad move in hindsight, but the Sox absolutely needed another reliever of some kind at the deadline. 

I did watch them extensively, and the numbers don't lie.

If you don't like the numbers, let us know how they're lying to us.

 

All contenders need "a reliever," as insurance against injury or regression down the stretch.  But that team didn't need an expensive closer.

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox had a bullpen problem and got the top reliever on the market.  It's a damned shame Kimbrel was too soft to do anything but close. 

It's also worth pointing out a less shitty manager could have figured out a way of using the guy in other ways to get him back on track.  But not Tony.

For the first part of your post, I'll disagree. The bullpen wasn't anywhere near their top needs, beyond adding "a guy" as depth/regression & injury insurance. Kimbrel was (and is) extremely talented, but is (and was) a poor fit and a poor use of resources.

For the second part of your post, I can agree that a competent manager would have done better handling Kimbrel and Hendriks. But that should have been part of the calculus in trading for Kimbrel in the first place. If your manager is incompetent, and there's a questionable fit, then I dunno?

Maybe don't blow your wad on a piece you don't need, that your manager doesn't know how to use, using resources you can't afford to spend.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Except for the part where they didn’t read any of his stats beyond his ERA. And the part where he was awful and they still picked up an option making him the second highest paid reliever in there league this year.

Kimbrel had a 100th percentile xwOBA at the time of the trade and was one of the most coveted players at the deadline with both the Dodgers & Rays in hot pursuit of him.  Rip the price we paid or the decision to pick up the option, but the best baseball minds were trying acquire him and it wasn’t just because of his ERA but rather him being the best reliever in baseball at the time.

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'll disagree. The numbers showed that there was no need for a closer. Or if you like, it certainly wasn't among the top ~3 or so needs.

Now, if this org had had LAD's deep MiLB system, and/or LAD's deep pockets, sure: they could afford to take a gamble on Kimbrel. But this org has neither of those things.

It predictably turned out as poorly as it did. And here we are, waiting for the CBA to be finished, so that Kimbrel's tumor of a contract can be removed from the payroll.

This is absolutely absurd.  No one, not you, not Andrew Friedman, thought Kimbrel would go from the other best reliever in baseball to absolutely terrible post acquisition.

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I did watch them extensively, and the numbers don't lie.

If you don't like the numbers, let us know how they're lying to us.

 

All contenders need "a reliever," as insurance against injury or regression down the stretch.  But that team didn't need an expensive closer.

Dude, the Sox needed a high leverage reliever.  If you want to argue Kimbrel was overkill, that’s a debate worth having.  If you think we had a playoff caliber bullpen without a major addition beyond Tepera you must not have watched the games like everyone is saying.  The bullpen was a real problem and citing reliever fWAR doesn’t change anything as that stat is heavily by the production of Liam Hendriks.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Chicago White Sox

[Two-Gun Pete]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is absolutely absurd.  No one, not you, not Andrew Friedman, thought Kimbrel would go from the other best reliever in baseball to absolutely terrible post acquisition.

Andrew Friedman's LAD had different needs than the SOX. Friedman's LAD had more resources on hand than the SOX.

The numbers don't lie. 

The bullpen wasn't anywhere near that team's most pressing needs. And that team could ill-afford the price that it took to get Kimbrel.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Andrew Friedman's LAD had different needs than the SOX. Friedman's LAD had more resources on hand than the SOX.

The numbers don't lie. 

The bullpen wasn't anywhere near that team's most pressing needs. And that team could ill-afford the price that it took to get Kimbrel.

What numbers are you talking about?

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Dude, the Sox needed a high leverage reliever.  If you want to argue Kimbrel was overkill, that’s a debate worth having.  

If you think we had a playoff caliber without a major bullpen addition beyond Tepera you must not have watched the games like everyone is saying.  The bullpen was a real problem and citing reliever fWAR doesn’t change anything as that stat is heavily by the production of Liam Hendriks.

Look, the numbers are the numbers.

I can agree that every contender needs to add a piece to their bullpens as injury and/or regression insurance.

But in no way do the numbers indicate that the bullpen was anywhere near the most pressing need.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What numbers are you talking about?

These.

[Flash]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So just to jinx to any hopes of a CBA being agreed to in the next 24 hours, below is a new offseason plan that pushes our payroll to the absolute limits of the new CBT.  While I'd rather not trade Andrew Vaughn, this plan assumes he's moved in a package for Ketel Marte with the Sox then rolling with a Sheets / Burger platoon at DH.

How happy / mad would you be with this offseason?  To me, this firmly places the Sox as the best team in baseball heading into Opening Day, but feel free to rip away if you disagree!

 

Nice! Agree on Tepera and would love to land Marte but doubt we have the assets to prevail in a bidding war as he will be highly coveted. As to Comforto, I'm a bit torn. I was pounding on the table for him in 2020 (when there was a lot of energy here toward Nimmo) but his Slugging % fell over 130 percentage points in 2021. Could have been injuries/COVID related but I don't see him getting 4/80. Would love to sign him to a one year 'show-me' deal but I believe there is a compensation pick due. Absent Comforto and Marte, I'd focus on pitching...maybe a trade with Baltimore for Means (rumored to be available). Would also look to add a veteren Catcher who can handle pitchers. Someone like Victor Caratini on Padres ( who are deep in Catchers). Padres might be interesting trade partners for several needs.  

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel had a 100th percentile xwOBA at the time of the trade and was one of the most coveted players at the deadline with both the Dodgers & Rays in hot pursuit of him.  Rip the price we paid or the decision to pick up the option, but the best baseball minds were trying acquire him and it wasn’t just because of his ERA but rather him being the best reliever in baseball at the time.

I mean the pens needs were incredibly obvious.  And in an era where relievers pitch more in the playoffs than they ever have before, having top notch guys is more important than ever before.  In 2021 the Sox starters pitched 12 1/3 innings.  The pen pitched 20 1/3.  In 2020 it was 11 for the SP and 14 for the RP.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What numbers are you talking about?

The ones where he ignored what each individual was doing during the stretch before the break and picked the ones that fit his narrative by including Hendriks in them.

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel had a 100th percentile xwOBA at the time of the trade and was one of the most coveted players at the deadline with both the Dodgers & Rays in hot pursuit of him.  Rip the price we paid or the decision to pick up the option, but the best baseball minds were trying acquire him and it wasn’t just because of his ERA but rather him being the best reliever in baseball at the time.

At the time of the trade, Craig Kimbrel had a .203 batting average on balls in play and a 3.8% HR/FB rate. Both of those numbers would have been the lowest of his career, which should have been an enormous red flag to anyone who looked past the ERA line. Even more glaring, his ground ball rate jumped starting in 2016 when he went to Boston - he used to be a much more effective ground ball pitcher, so his average BABIP went up starting when he moved to Boston - his BABIP with the Cubs in the first half of 2021 was extremely low, lowest of his career, despite the fact that his ground ball rate was still low and his fly ball rate was still high.

It is possible to apply statistics to his numbers. There is an obvious change in his GB rate starting in 2016, so if we take his BABIP since then, a .203 BABIP compared to his .260 normal mark is 2 standard deviations away. This means that approximately his first half was at the 90-95th percentile of what he might do, meaning that the odds of him doing that performance were something like 1/10 to 1/20 based on luck. Similarly, his HR/FB rate was so low that it appears to be at the 99th percentile of his performance - he would have a 1/100 chance of repeating that performance in the second half.

Without even considering the White Sox's defense or catching situations, Craig Kimbrel's stats in the first half screamed "one of the luckiest players in baseball in the first half". Interestingly, Cesar Hernandez's HR rate screamed the same thing for him.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

These.

Gotcha, so let’s ignore all context.  First, Bummer & Heuer were struggling mightily at the time.  Second, the only other relievers worth a damn besides Hendriks were Crochet & Kopech, who pitched a combined six innings the previous year and were likely wear down by the time October hit.  You actually think that’s a playoff caliber bullpen?

[raBBit]

Bowden released a piece of 7 players who should sign quick and 7 who should take some time.

Rodon was said to sign quick. Both Castellanos and Conforto were listed as players that should take more time. Bowden listed the Sox first for both players in terms of possible landing spots. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotcha, so let’s ignore all context.  First, Bummer & Heuer were struggling mightily at the time.  Second, the only other relievers worth a damn besides Hendriks were Crochet & Kopech, who pitched a combined six innings the previous year and were likely wear down by the time October hit.  You actually think that’s a playoff caliber bullpen?

Dude, relax.

All of what you posted here agrees with my view that all contending BPs need additional depth.

None of what you posted here suggests that a closer was needed. Let alone at the price that was paid. (Recall that none of us wanted to trade away anything from the 26 man last season.)

So no, there is no "context " that justified Kimbrel, or really, any other closer being added here. Not the needs of more talented/MiLB rich teams, such as LAD or TB. And not the needs of the 2021 White Sox.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

At the time of the trade, Craig Kimbrel had a .203 batting average on balls in play and a 3.8% HR/FB rate. Both of those numbers would have been the lowest of his career, which should have been an enormous red flag to anyone who looked past the ERA line. Even more glaring, his ground ball rate jumped starting in 2016 when he went to Boston - he used to be a much more effective ground ball pitcher, so his average BABIP went up starting when he moved to Boston - his BABIP with the Cubs in the first half of 2021 was extremely low, lowest of his career, despite the fact that his ground ball rate was still low and his fly ball rate was still high.

It is possible to apply statistics to his numbers. There is an obvious change in his GB rate starting in 2016, so if we take his BABIP since then, a .203 BABIP compared to his .260 normal mark is 2 standard deviations away. This means that approximately his first half was at the 90-95th percentile of what he might do, meaning that the odds of him doing that performance were something like 1/10 to 1/20 based on luck. Similarly, his HR/FB rate was so low that it appears to be at the 99th percentile of his performance - he would have a 1/100 chance of repeating that performance in the second half.

Without even considering the White Sox's defense or catching situations, Craig Kimbrel's stats in the first half screamed "one of the luckiest players in baseball in the first half". Interestingly, Cesar Hernandez's HR rate screamed the same thing for him.

100% percentile xwOBA.  I don’t think you understand the purpose of that statistic if this is your argument.  And his ERA, FIP, & xFIP were all within 0.40 points of each other.  No idea what the Rays & Dodgers’ front offices were thinking by pursuing a dude who was bound to crash & burn at any point.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotcha, so let’s ignore all context.  First, Bummer & Heuer were struggling mightily at the time.  Second, the only other relievers worth a damn besides Hendriks were Crochet & Kopech, who pitched a combined six innings the previous year and were likely wear down by the time October hit.  You actually think that’s a playoff caliber bullpen?

They desperately needed relief help, and they got the best one on the market, along with another really good one.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

100% percentile xwOBA.  I don’t think you understand the purpose of that statistic if this is your argument.  And his ERA, FIP, & xFIP were all within 0.40 points of each other.  No idea what the Rays & Dodgers’ front offices were thinking by pursuing a dude who was bound to crash & burn at any point.

Well at least one of the things you said is blatantly false, because at the time of the trade his FIP was 1.10, his xFIP was 1.99, and his ERA was 0.49, and 1.99 - 0.49 >> 0.40. 

None of that changes how dramatically his 2021 first half stands out in his career numbers either.

[wegner]

I laughed at the Cubs when they overpaid Kimbrel with that contract they gave him.  Then the Sox end up with the contract.  Then the guy turns out to be a head case who cannot pitch in the 8th inning effectively.  Do your f...ing job guy, no matter what inning it is.  Sorry but that guy just really pisses me off.  

[SoxBlanco]

26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotcha, so let’s ignore all context.  First, Bummer & Heuer were struggling mightily at the time.  Second, the only other relievers worth a damn besides Hendriks were Crochet & Kopech, who pitched a combined six innings the previous year and were likely wear down by the time October hit.  You actually think that’s a playoff caliber bullpen?

Exactly. I guarantee everyone here would have gone apeshit if we didn't acquire an impact bullpen piece at the deadline. Hell, everyone was already complaining about Hahn not making any moves right before we made this move.

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well at least one of the things you said is blatantly false, because at the time of the trade his FIP was 1.10, his xFIP was 1.99, and his ERA was 0.49, and 1.99 - 0.49 >> 0.40. 

None of that changes how dramatically his 2021 first half stands out in his career numbers either.

You are correct, had the date range wrong.  Regardless, I’m not sure what’s so different about his 1st half numbers and his peak years?  K/9, BB/9, & HR/9 all look very similar.

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Exactly. I guarantee everyone here would have gone apeshit if we didn't acquire an impact bullpen piece at the deadline. Hell, everyone was already complaining about Hahn not making any moves right before we made this move.

And I’m ok if people feel like acquiring a closer wasn’t the right move because of the price, I just don’t know how anyone could argue addressing the bullpen was a low priority.  We needed to add a high leverage setup man at a minimum.

[wegner]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

And I’m ok if people feel like acquiring a closer wasn’t the right move because of the price, I just don’t know how anyone could argue addressing the bullpen was a low priority.  We needed to add a high leverage setup man at a minimum.

I thought at the time that Daniel Hudson was the move to make.